Sundance ’26 Bidding Wars and ‘Melania’ Box Office Prospects

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1:20Special shout out to the two ladies at the HBO Documentaries party last night who made me retake a selfie with them because I, quote, looked bad the first time. Thanks for that. As for the movies, Eugene Hernandez was right last week on the show. I liked the Olivia Wilde movie, The Invite, a lot. Some others, not so much. Definitely a lot of nostalgia in the freezing air here. I hosted a great dinner with filmmakers and producers last night, and people just kind of went around the table telling amazing stories from the festival. Big deals and culture-changing movies and celebrities doing dumb stuff.

1:51That dinner was off the record, but my co-host for that dinner is our guest today. John Sloss is the consummate Sundance salesman and dealmaker. He sold hundreds and hundreds of movies over the years, from Little Miss Sunshine to Precious and all the Richard Linklater films to a bunch of titles he's selling at this year's festival, like Chasing Summer and Doc's Like the Oldest Person in the World. We're going to talk about the Sundance movie market, whether these streamers are still as dominant and how much more they need to pay to lure films away from theatrical distributors. Why the all-night bidding war is mostly a relic of the past, although we've got an exception this year.

2:24Lots here to discuss. So today it's the state of the Sundance deal market with the king of the Sundance deal. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town.

2:37All right, we are here with John Sloss, the founder and head of Synetic Media, partner at his namesake law firm and Sundance veteran. Is it fair to say you're the king of Sundance? You would probably say you're the king of Sundance. I would never say. I'll leave that to others. Okay. We are here in the very glamorous, the town condo at the base of Park City Mountain. On a scale of one to 10, how dumpy is this? You must be doing very well. Oh, stop. This is not that. This is like you're okay with this. This is an acceptable environment for you. Yeah, because I get to leave it in 20 minutes. No, it's fine.

3:16We have been here for four days now. We are going to talk a little bit about the market. We're going to talk a little bit about some Sundance memories. You must be getting nostalgic. I'm getting extremely nostalgic. Like this is the last time I'm going to stand outside the Eccles. I'm staying here until Friday so that I can get a full dose of nostalgia. But this has been a major trip down memory lane for me. What was your first year at Sundance in Park City? I'm still trying to figure that out. But I believe I came here the last year of the U.S. Film Festival. Oh, wow. So like early 80s. Oh, yeah.

3:51Yeah. Jesus Christ. Yeah, I think 85 might have been my first year. But back in the day, obviously, the market, as we know Sundance now, did not exist. The market, let's face it, our erstwhile friend Harvey Weinstein kicked off the market. You believe that? I do believe that. I mean, you know, there was Mark Erdesky at New Line and things like that. But Harvey drove this end of the business, just like he created the awards film as a genre. Right. He really did. And that was not until the late 80s, early 90s. Because people say that Sexualized and Videotape was the first Sundance breakout, and that was a Miramax movie.

4:30Yes, it was. And it was 1989. Famously, it did not win the Grand Jury Prize. Many people don't believe that, since it's one of the most famous films in the history of this film festival. And when you look at the landscape, Do you notice when films are undersold? Like you mentioned when we were talking before about the film A Real Pain, the Searchlight film, the Jesse Eisenberg film. You said if you were selling that, you would have gotten more for it. I did say that. I don't necessarily want to repeat that to your viewers or your listeners. Why not? This is an advertisement for your services. Because it'll anger the people who sold it.

5:04Sure, we're not naming them. You can Google that. And Jesse, who had a big hand in probably deciding who bought it, isn't all about the money. Sure. Listen, he got a couple of Oscar novels out of the movie. He got a nice run. Searchlight handled it very well. They handled it very, very well. But the reason I'm asking you is what are the pressure points in a deal, in a Sundance deal? Well, you've got to create a market or the perception of a market. And you've got to decide what your priorities are. Is it eyeballs? Is it someone who understands how to market it best? Is it money? It's not always money.

5:40Yeah. Um, and you know, my job as a representative is to really understand the priorities of people I work for and then to optimize them. It's funny because I, I went to the party for the invite the other night after that film screen, Olivia Wilde's film, which did very well. And it's now in a bidding war as we are speaking. And I asked her, I said, what, what, you know, who do you want this film to go to? And she's like, honestly, I want to hear what the different distributors have to say and what they understand about the movie and what, how, what they would do with it. Yeah, I mean, it's very easy to be reductive and say, oh, who's going to pay the most money?

6:13This is an auction. But the fact is, you create, you birth these films. You put your life into them. You spend a year and a half making them. And then you hand them off to someone who is just sort of grabbing them, you know, for the first time. They have 10 films waiting to release after that. Well, that used to be the criticism of Harvey is that he would hoover up all these titles at Sundance and, you know, be in the room and sell people on the Harvey Weinstein experience. And then when push came to shove, he would make strategic decisions based on what the awards play was. And then all of a sudden your movie that Harvey was, you know, clamoring for nine months ago is being dumped.

6:51I mean, it happens. It happened with him all the time. Yeah, but it happens in other places. But it provoked, you know, for people who are sort of paying attention and know what they're doing, it provoked some different approaches. And I started to negotiate as part of deals that you can't release a film within three weeks before or after the release of this movie and putting that in a contract. Right. That's like the dump clause. You don't want to be dumped. You don't want to be dumped. You don't want to be distracted. Them to be distracted. Right. And, you know, you're never going to have more leverage than when you've got numerous interested parties.

7:29So it really is incumbent upon you to think of all those things. But Olivia is exactly right. Distributors, they come to Sundance and they make up marketing proposals to bring the next day to you if they really want to film. Right. And it has the added benefit of getting them more invested in the film. And so it's a double positive to really turn it around and make them sell themselves to you. So you were on the show three years ago, and we talked a little bit about the market then. How has the market evolved in just those three years? You were talking about how the doc market was hot and narratives were less hot.

8:06And how has it evolved? I mean, logically, this is a festival of discovery. And it's a festival that privileges docs equally with scripted films. Yeah, all five Oscar-nominated docs this year were Sundance movies. And we have a hand in almost all of them. You were talking about Netflix being the dominant player then. Is Netflix still the dominant player? Well, here's the thing. We were coming out of the pandemic. And there was a double whammy against scripted films at that time. Because logically, the streamers aren't really interested in Discovery films. Because they don't really have the tools to break a film or a new vision.

8:43because they can't let a film sit in theaters. They don't do much marketing. They don't do much marketing. It's a closed circuit. And so they're looking for films with stars and high concept. Perfect Neighbors is a great example. It's an elevated version of an awful, awful crime story. It was the perfect storm because it's an amazing film while also being like the best episode of Cops ever. Right. But I'm not talking about documentaries because documentaries have sustained just fine. What happened in the pandemic is that you have the rise of the streamers who aren't really interested in the scripted films that Sundance is famous for.

9:26And then you had the theaters closing so that the all rights distributors were really struggling and people weren't going to the theater. So they couldn't really pick up these discovery films. So the way things have changed a little bit is that the market for all rights acquisition has come back. There are all these new distributors now, and they're having some success getting people back into theaters. And so I would say for the traditional scripted films that really thrive out of Sundance, the market is better than it was three years ago. Oh, you think so? Interesting. Yeah. And just because of the new distributors in place.

9:59And because people are going back to the theaters. Yeah. Give us an example. Let's use Roque. Roque is this new distributor. We hosted a dinner last night, and we had people from all the different distributors there. Roque was among them. So when new distributors come to town, do you still think it's in their best interest to make a big Sundance splash? Absolutely. You think so? Yeah. I mean, there are people who track what happens here, even retail people. People aren't in the industry. Retail people. Is that a term of art? I'm trademarking it, just like Matthew McConaughey. So I think we should repeat it.

10:35But within the industry, these kinds of announcements, these statement buys have outsized impact on filmmakers, on any number of people. I mean, it cuts both ways, though. Remember when Amazon came to Sundance? Jen Salke spent$50 million. Yeah. Jen Salke took over Amazon Studios, came to Sundance, was like, oh, my God, people are clapping for this movie. Let's buy it. They spent$50 million, and then the movies come out, and it's like, wah, wah. We won't name the movies. Actually, we should name the movies. Well, it was the Mindy Kaling movie, Late Night. Yeah, it was that. There was a couple others.

11:14Craig can figure that out. Some of the movies Amazon bought were Late Night, Britney Runs a Marathon, The Report, and Honey Boy. Yeah, all classics. But that's a dream for someone like you. Yeah, I mean, you know, I don't traditionally sell the sizzle. In fact, if you look at the performance of the commercial films that we've had coming out of here, they have, by and large, performed. you know if you look at little miss sunshine or you look at that was 20 years ago even a film like precious or hitman that was back in the oh hitman's a good one yeah that one i mean that's good for netflix uh but you didn't if i remember correctly you didn't want to sell that to netflix you did because they offered the most money i left that to my client uh or the person the people i was working for i i said how how big a delta between where the market is on this film and netflix do you need from Netflix in order to feel good about going with Netflix?

12:05And they gave me a number and I called Scott Stuber and I said, here's what we need. And he took a beat and said, okay. And that was the Quinn Powell movie with Rick Linclair. Okay. What is that Delta? Typically, what is the Delta that a filmmaker will need? You don't have to give me specifics on specific people, but let's call it the streaming tax. What do they need to pay extra to get a movie where there's a comparable bid that includes a robust theatrical release well i mean look at as we all say every situation is sui generis as the lawyer says um 20 not to tell tell us out of school but uh in hitman's case it was double oh that's an easy answer then right yeah the math works yeah and it seems like still in these markets if netflix decides they want something they will just pay what they need to get it.

13:03Yeah. I mean, it happened last year with Train Dreams, which they bought, and then it turned out... Did they pay a lot for Train Dreams? I believe it was$15 million. Did they pay that much? I believe they did. Yeah, Craig can check that. But it worked out for them. Hit on the service and Best Picture nomination. Best Picture nomination, yeah. So that's a pretty good outcome. Yeah. But I know that they had other offers for that movie. I mean, it might have been a comparable situation to hit now. Interesting. And the weird thing is, the paradox here, is that it can appear to filmmakers and people in the industry that Netflix is where films go to die because they just kind of disappear.

13:40But the fact is, at the end of the day, there are exponentially more eyeballs on those films than the average theatrical release. We are up here in the mountains and everybody's obsessing over these titles and saying it's the second coming and these things are going to make a cultural impact. but 95 % of these films, even the ones that sell, they are released to very small audiences. I mean, they accumulate all rights films. It's hard to track them because yes, they may not get a huge theatrical gross, but they play out through the different windows. They do. And like something like Train Dreams does get best picture and is getting a lot more eyeballs than, you know, if it had just been released through a tiny distributor without Sundance Bush.

14:21Even without the best picture nom, it probably got the equivalent eyeballs of a$50 million grossing movie. You just don't know it. Right. The days of Harvey being able to push a Sundance movie to$100 million. Like, that is a, what did Precious gross? Precious grossed over$50 million. And that was a hard movie. Yes, for a movie like that, insane. That would not do that to them. My point is that would never do that to them. You don't think so? No. I called my old friend Tom Rothman and Peter Kajowski and Matthew Greenfield. He runs Focus, he runs Searchlight. When we were selling Hitman, I know we're dwelling on this, he said, this film's going to gross$75 to$100 million.

15:01Glenn Powell has a movie coming out with Sidney Sweeney. It's going to be a big hit. Oh, you predicted that? It was in post at that point. Look at it. It was sort of like Steve Carell had 40-year-old Virgin in the can when we were selling Little Miss Sunshine. And you kind of knew it was going to pop. I don't think Sony thought that the Glenn Powell Sidney Sweeney film was going to be successful. but um but there was a shot and it was and i'm selling yeah you're selling so you're gonna you know take the rosy view but hitman is a very pleasing commercial experience and so it's possible and i think it's possible that that film could have done that if i'd sold it to an all rights distributor and it did huge numbers on netflix yeah do you ever hear regrets from filmmakers for selling a movie to streamers i've heard regrets on both sides there are filmmakers who said, do I need to go through the slings and arrows of half-baked critics?

15:55When the negative box office headlines and A24 having 10 movies. People like you being snarky. I'm never snarky. But the A24 has a lot of movies now, and they seem to be prioritizing bigger budget movies. Are you feeling that on the market level? That's an interesting thing. And if you look at the history of sort of specialized film, there's a pressure in that direction. I mean, ultimately, it ended up happening with Miramax and the Weinstein company. They started making bigger budget movies. Now they were also still picking up small movies. Yeah. And they did it to sell themselves to Disney. I mean, you need an exit plan because, and it's funny, I had this conversation with A24 a long time ago.

16:33I said, after Moonlight, I said, you know, this is a zero sum game. Maybe it's time for you to do a liquidity of air, get out. And they said, no, no, we're going to double down on this. And it turns out they were right, but it's hard to sustain that. And there's pressure on making more commercial films and having bigger home runs. Yeah, well, in the case of A24, when your valuation is in the billions of dollars, you kind of have to justify that. And to justify that, you need bigger movies. Exactly. Marty's Supreme costs$70 million. That's not a festival movie. One battle after another,$170 million.

17:07Is that what it really costs? I think that is. They're saying$130. That's a net number. I think on a gross level, it was... Yeah, but they got some incentives. Yeah.

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17:42The treat you deserve. Pepsi, Wild Cherry, and Cream. Treat yourself. You're looking at this Sundance market, and when you're selling a film, is there a, like, Apex buyer now? Three years ago, you said it was Netflix. Who's the cockiest buyer? I mean, Netflix is still the cockiest buyer. They are. Just because they have the biggest checkbook? They have the biggest checkbook. And everybody knows that. Even Apple. Apple has bought movies. They bought Coda here in 2020. If Apple wants something. 2021. I mean, look, Apple's not crying poverty. The question is what, you know, they have a more diversified business than Netflix, I would say.

18:25But yes, you know, Netflix, Amazon, look at Amazon. I mean, Amazon should be the biggest buyer here, right? And they were for a while. You know, so there are ebbs and flows with these different companies. But I think there are a lot of competing people with deep checkbooks here. One of them is Warner Brothers, and they have this new group that is here. I saw Christian Parks at an event the other night and I asked him, I'm like, are you buying? And he's like, oh, if we see, you know, and I think they are buying. Did he give you a sense of what their agenda is in terms of - He did not. He keeps punting and saying, well, oh, when we establish ourselves, we're so new, you know, we'll explain everything.

19:00But my understanding is that their mandate is two to three movies a year, either buying or making. And until they can make the movies, they're going to be buying. So they're here to buy movies. Is this genre? Is this like traditional new line movies or what? They're smaller. They're more prestige type movies, like Sundance movies. Like Warner Independent? Something like that. Those were very small, but they see an opportunity. I am told they see an opportunity for movies with stars that are indie in focus, but that have potential breakout. I mean, are they going to compete for the invite? Yes.

19:35I shouldn't say that because we don't know. At this time, we don't know who's going to get it. But that would be the kind of movie. Big stars, Olivia Wilde, Seth Rogen, Ed Norton, Penelope Cruz with a kind of indie twist on it. And who knows? But you must be sizing them up as a seller. Absolutely. And that's why I'm asking you these questions. I mean, we have a film playing this afternoon that is a commercial, scripted, classic Sundance independent film. Like Chasing Summer. Chasing Summer. Yeah, with Eliza Schlesinger. Schlesinger. Schlesinger. and Lola then the woman and the lead from the the summer I turned pretty okay so is that a is that a cue to Amazon if you're listening out there Amazon yeah um if I asked all the acquisition executives what would they complain about you the most that uh I'm not in a hurry to sell a film I mean it hasn't that isn't that the biggest change in in recent years a big change there's None of these all-night bidding wars.

20:36I sort of cheekily attribute it to the fact that we've all gotten older and we want to get our sleep. But yeah, I kind of miss those days with the all-night bidding wars. But why is that not the case anymore? Because I think we are getting older and because it's become, in some ways, a buyer's market more than a seller's market. And the buyers benefit from elongating things because they get to see all the films on offer. They let the heat die down. I mean, there's a double benefit to them to draw this out. and it's our job to try and create some urgency. Right. How do you do that? There are various ways to do it.

21:09You know, you have to... Tell us. Wait, you want me to give away my trade secrets? Yeah, well, I'll... My competitors might be listening. I know some of them. Like you put the buyers in different rooms and you make them make their pitches and you don't let them know who's fitting what. I mean, one way to do it is say, this is in play, it could go down tonight. You say that and then people, it gets their attention. But then they text each other and they're like, no. They don't share information as much as you can. Okay. there's such a thing as antitrust yeah come on we're gonna get the justice department on there's no such thing these are often companies that are not like in cahoots with each other they're just sharing information why not we're buying a movie i that happens less than you think okay i actually believe it but it just it just seems like with these streamers in play and their ability to drop whatever they need it would seem like the all-night bidding war would would be a thing still and it's not is it just that deals take longer now certainly the invite could have sparked an all-night bidding war.

22:00No, it did. My sources say it was. I mean, this was not the night after the premiere, but on Sunday night, they had all the bidders line up and say, tell us your pitch. Well, there you go. So the all-night bidding war, they just delayed it by a day. You're declaring that the bidding wars are back. Yes, absolutely. So back to the complaints about you. I can be somewhat opaque, and we don't orchestrate auctions. We have a more nuanced, strategic way of doing things. But it's the same 10 people that you're negotiating against all the time, so you really can't fuck them over. Yeah, but that's actually not true, and I don't fuck them over, but also...

22:39Wait, wait, it's not true that you can't fuck them over? You can fuck them over. You can fuck them over. Because it's not about me, it's about the films. And if I do something, I mean, I don't consider myself unscrupulous, I consider myself strategic. Okay, but if you say to focus features, you know what, Searchlight is at 5 million, are you going to go to six? And then they later find out that searchlight was never even bidding. We don't do that. That I consider unprofessional. We can tell them where we think the market is or where it'll be. But there's no art in saying, oh, he's at five million.

23:14Do you want five, five? Do I have five, six? Do I have five, seven? No, I get that. It's not a literal auction. No. Yeah. But if there's a perception that the market is at a certain level where it is not, and the buyer finds out about that, that's not great. I mean, perception is in the eye of the receiver. And it's his own fault if he gets fooled by that. But yeah, we don't lie. And I don't know sellers who do, frankly. That's the headline from this. John Sloss, we don't lie. We don't lie. Trust me. Yeah, trust me, we don't lie. I'm an honest man. So in the complaint about us, we really try to listen to the people we represent and understand what their agenda is.

23:51and in more cases not, we don't make it about who pays the most money. It's a more nuanced process and they really have to do the homework and they have to talk about a vision for marketing the film. And that's frustrating to some people. Yeah. I just want to say it's always a pleasure to see you and I thought the dinner we did was great. Yeah, our dinner last night was off the record, but it was very fun to hear the top buyers from the past 30 years talking about the stories that matter to them and the films that matter to them. And you can tell, you know, there's a lot of warmth in that room.