'Superman,' Marvel vs. DC, and the Studio Head Hot Seat

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2:39How were the numbers? At the town, we look at the weekend numbers, 125 million domestic, 220 million worldwide, a pretty good start, though a little below the NRG tracking. we look at him as a heat check for the studio and his executives. The Warner Brothers leadership, our guy David Zaslop, the CEO, Mike Maluka, Pam Abdi, who run the film studio, Peter Safran and James Gunn at DC, they all sent out flowery statements yesterday, heralding Superman as a new day at DC. There's still a long way to profitability for a movie that cost$225 million to make and another hundred or so to market. That's okay.

3:13They could take the W for a movie that did resonate with fans and even the critics. and as we know, it was crucial that Superman worked because the entire DC reboot is built around this restart. Zaslav said, quote, Superman is just the first step. Over the next year alone, DC studios will introduce the film Supergirl and Clayface in theaters and the series Lanterns on HBO Max, all part of a bold 10-year plan. Zaslav also talked to the New York Times. A hell of a run, he said, of the recent five-movie streak at Warner's. We're organized and we're on the attack. Okay, lots to digest there, both for Warner Brothers and elsewhere around town.

3:50So we've got Lucas Shaw here today. We're going to dive into the Warner situation and do a little studio head heat check. It's Superman, the super numbers, question mark, and the studio executive check-in. From the Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

4:10All right, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas. Great to be here. How are you doing? I'm doing okay. You're not worried about the Dodgers at the All-Star break? No. No? I mean, I'm hysterical in my text messages with friends, but I have the perspective to know that right now it does not matter. Seven in a row, losses, doesn't concern you? They won the last two. They got to get healthy. They'll figure it out. If the playoffs started tomorrow, I'd be super nervous, but there's a lot of season left. That's true. All right. Speaking of the playing field, we're going to talk a little bit about...

4:43I thought you were going to go speaking of panic meters. Panic meters, yeah. I don't know. That's the thing right now. I feel like at all of the movie studios, people are kind of safe right now. There was the Mike and Pam hysteria of March and April. What a time. We all were in on it. And there was real hysteria. But now we have David Zaslav giving statements about how great everything is. I mean, it's unbelievable. who told him it was a good idea to call the New York Times and brag about how we're on the offense now we're attack mode we're doing it all like just sit on your hands do not call the New York Times when you have a hit movie well also why are you the person speaking this should be the moment for your executives to be able to say we did it great or at least like talk about the strategy don't like cheerlead from the C-suite.

5:37It's unbelievable, the press strategy. And he's now gone through multiple press people. So it's him. It's not his people. He wants to do this stuff. So I'm going to let you be the but actually guy because I know you love that. I thought you wanted to be the but actually guy. No, I'm going to let you do it. Because you want me to be the bad guy. No, no, no. I'm just going to go through the numbers here. Man of Steel, 117 million in 2013. So with inflation, that would be$161 million opening in 2025. So this weekend, with the$125 million opening, significantly lower than Man of Steel 12 years ago, the Franchise Re newsletter estimates a 2.9 multiple for domestic, meaning they estimated it will be almost three times multiple, with a 48 % contribution from international.

6:27So that would be a little less than$600 million worldwide for this movie. Cost,$225 that we are told. Marketing,$100,$125 probably. So that puts the break-even for this movie in the high fives right around$600 million. So is this movie the hit that David Zasloff with his megaphone is talking about? Well, it's a hit. It's just not like a smash that firmly establishes the new DC strategy works. Everyone is super excited. This is the future of the company. And you knew that Warner Brothers and DC were trying to manage this before the release, right? Because I think perception was, and you and I talked about this other people, that it needed to get to like 800 million to be seen as a big hit, right?

7:21Not according to James Gunn. He threw water on the 700 million number. That was a direct effort to manage it, right? Previous Superman movies have all lived in the sort of like 600 to 800 million range. They've all done fine. They're not failures, but they're also not huge hits. And this is going to live in that zone that all previous Superman movies have lived, right? Yeah, the international number kills them. And we knew Superman, not a huge draw overseas. The 48 % number that the franchise re-newsletter has, I think that's generous. I think this is going to be a bigger U.S. hit than it is overseas.

7:58And we're already seeing the soft numbers there. I mean, it got beat by Jurassic World in Korea, in China, and a bunch. Asia was particularly soft, I think. And there's a Fantastic Four movie coming in two weeks that's going to trounce it overseas. But the perception is largely drawn by the U.S. numbers. And that's where I think this is a similar conversation to the F1 conversation. If you look at the F1 numbers, it's going to cross 400 worldwide in a couple days. But that movie cost 250 generously. It's not going to be profitable in theaters. But perception-wise for Apple, it said, okay, we can open a movie.

8:40We can play the big boy game and have a summer blockbuster that people liked and got good reviews and is not embarrassing and it'll have value in the service. Do you think that perception-wise, this is a win for Warner Brothers in DC? Yeah, exactly. That's what I'm saying. This is a perception win that they are going to dine out on and try to yada yada into a financial win. And maybe it'll have legs. Maybe it'll get up to$600,$700,$800. We'll see. But the perception win is what matters. And that's where they can start to greenlight other DC movies. That's the whole thing. They need this movie to work so they can do a universe.

9:19Well, and it helps that people think the movie is pretty good. Yeah, exactly. If this movie were a turd, then the perception about it would be very negative. But you have a movie, similar to F1, where it's a solid popcorn movie, and the numbers are also pretty good. And so it's a win, right? It's not a home run, but it's a double. Yeah, not embarrassing. That is the standard. And especially considering the recent track record for Warner Brothers, it sort of continues this momentum that they've had. Well, let's talk about the momentum because this is, by the assessment of the New York Times, five in a row for them.

9:57If you're giving them F1. We're giving them F1. They had nothing to do with the making of that movie. And we're giving them Minecraft, which was in development before Mike and Pam took over. For the studio. It's the fifth win in a row for the studio. But let's talk about the leadership there. Zasloff and Mike and Pam and the DC guys, Peter Safran, James Gunn. If you're talking about Mike and Pam, their main movie in that streak that they've released is Sinners. But that was sort of the biggest win of all of those released, other than maybe Minecraft. Minecraft's obviously a bigger win, but I think people expected it to do pretty well.

10:37The success of Sinners was more surprising. Final Destination was, you know, they successfully kind of rebooted a horror franchise, very low stakes. Well, that was New Line. And Superman is, they've cut off DC. So Superman means that Peter Safran and James Gunn start with a victory and Sinners means that Mike and Pam start with a victory, right? True. But what I'm saying is the five in a row thing has some caveats because there are movies that predated them. There's a New Line horror franchise. There is the Minecraft thing that predated them. But all of these have been released by the Mike and Pam regime.

11:15So they do get credit, just like they get the negatives for Mickey 17 and the Alto Knights, neither of which they wanted to make. Right, and that they had their hands wrapped for Joker 2, which, again, predated them. Yeah, although they did claim that that was their first movie, back when they thought it was going to be it. Yeah, you can always move around which one was actually your first movie. Right, exactly. And that's why this matters, because I feel like the studio hot seat is pretty cold right now. Everyone seems is kind of safe. Disney doing okay. David Greenbaum just got in on the live action side, so he's not going anywhere.

11:56Alan Bergman is, you know, managing. They've kind of steadied the ship, according to Bob Iger, even though Elio is a huge disaster for Pixar. And Marvel's having a pretty week here. Yeah. Well, that gets to the question of Marvel, because Fantastic Four is probably going to hit. But how big is Fantastic Four going to be? Because these Marvel movies, like, used to be if you grossed$400 million as a Marvel movie, it was a disaster. Yeah, that's the norm. I know, now two in a row, including one Thunderbolts that got good reviews and the fans seemed to like, and it still got to about$400 million. It didn't even get there.

12:37It's at$390, I think. So what is the ceiling for Marvel now? Well, the ceiling is still high. It just depends on the property, right? Like Spider-Man. Well, the Spider-Man movies. Okay. Take Spider-Man out of it. We haven't had a proper Spider-Man movie since 2021. And yes, it did enormous$2 billion numbers, but they like endgamed it. They had all the other Spider-Men in it and it was the culmination of a trilogy and it became a phenomenon. Like I'm not saying Spider-Man is in peril. Deadpool last year was huge. There are certain movies that do break through. Your point is correct. And I had a fun chart in my newsletter yesterday about this showing the average gross of Marvel movies sort of per era.

13:20And this is far and away the worst. And that's factoring in Deadpool and Spider-Man, right? The average or the median. Yes. And the fact that there are fewer movies now. Yeah. I mean, if you look at it after Fantastic Four, there's nothing until Spider-Man next summer. And that's not even a Marvel Disney release. There's nothing until Avengers Doomsday at the end of 2026. Also, everything is ending. It's like it's the final. They're squeezing as much as they can out of Spider-Man. They squeeze as much as they could out of Deadpool. And those are the only two things that have been successful. But those are ending.

13:51Everything that's trying to begin is struggling. Spider-Man's not ending. Tom Holland will be doing this for a while. Do you think Tom Holland's going to do five, six, seven Spider-Mans? You know, I don't know the answer, but I would guess he would. Why wouldn't he? I don't know. There seems to be kind of a natural limit where Hemsworth and Evans, it's around three, four, five movies, even like James Bond, before you want to move on and do other things. Yeah, but Holland tried to do other stuff and it didn't work. He's doing the Odyssey, if that works. I know, if the Odyssey works, he could become a big star again and try to do other stuff.

14:24But why would you give it up? Why would you give it up? All right, outside of Holland, then, it just feels like Marvel is struggling to launch anything new. And I don't know what these Avengers are going to be. How many more of the old stars are they going to have to force back into the Avengers to make that movie work? A lot. And Downey is back in the new character. But what is the number that Fantastic Four has to get to to be considered a big success for Disney and Marvel? Again, it's in the Superman category. I'd say between six and seven. You think if it gets to six, that's a big success?

14:54Not a big success, but I think it's not embarrassing. Under six is embarrassing. For a movie that has been this hyped and they put this much into it. Now, keep in mind, it's the first in a series of Marvel movies. So those always gross lower than the sequels usually. And, you know, it's not like this has been done before Fantastic Four. So it's not exactly new. The marketing, I think, has been good. It does feel different. But I'd say above six is not embarrassing. Yeah, above six is not embarrassing. But I think you got to get seven or eight for it to be a big hit. Yeah. And then it's like, well, what are we doing?

15:32So is Kevin Feige on the hot seat? I don't think so. I don't think he gets blamed if they... He doesn't? He basically has not had an answer for the post-Endgame strategy at Marvel. The whole flood the zone with Disney Plus shows didn't work. The Captain America do another one, but with Anthony Mackie, that didn't work. The Jonathan Majors thing blew up in his face. Not really his fault. Not his fault, but it did blow up in his face. They haven't had a franchise starting Marvel. You and these Disney subsidiaries, you love coming after the heads. Do I? I don't know. Who else am I going after? Oh, Kevin Kennedy.

16:14Oh, yeah. That's another, that's a whole separate thing. But is Kevin Feige going to lose his mojo? Marvel has definitely lost a little bit of its mojo. Just that there's not the same level of excitement for it all, and we can debate is that they made too many. You throw in the TV and their people just, it was overexposed. Is that naturally cyclical where it just, it was so popular for so long and it had to ebb a little bit? I guess I hear you on he has not come up with an answer, but I don't think that means that he's on the hot seat in any way. And what a change of events. If DC is all of a sudden back and has a thriving cinematic universe.

16:55Okay, but hold on, let's take a second. If Superman hits 650 and Fantastic Four hits 600, we're suddenly going to say DC is the one that's thriving and Marvel is the one that's struggling? I'm just saying relative to where they were. Trajectory. Trajectory. Right. If that happens, it's sort of amazing that Disney handed James Gunn to DC. I mean, if we go back to 2018, Alan Horn cutting ties with James Gunn on Guardians of the Galaxy 3 over his bad tweets, what did Gunn do? He was desperate for a job. He went, he started talking to DC. They hired him for a suicide squad. Now, Alan Horn eventually reneged on that, brought him back to do Guardians 3.

17:40But that relationship was pretty much over. And after Guardians 3, Gunn went over to DC and is now doing his thing over there. So you could argue that the success of DC is thanks to Disney, which is doubly ironic because Alan Horn now consults for Warner Brothers Discovery. There's at some point going to be a very fun story on Alan Horn's role in the movie business over the last 40 years. He's still helping them. Yeah. Do you think that the success of Superman causes any tension between the divisions at Warner Brothers? You mean, is Peter Safran all of a sudden lobbying for Mike and Pam's job?

18:25That's basically what you're saying. Sort of. Was he not a little bit before? I don't know if you actually reported this. I did not. I believe that he has made it known that he has broader experience than just superhero movies and could step in when they were looking to replace him. I don't think Zasloff called him and said, you know, get your running shoes on because you're about to move upstairs. But he definitely got mentioned in some of those reports as a potential replacement.

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20:40I don't know. The Sony situation is really like a conundrum to me. Because Tom Rothman just re-upped. He's in his 70s. And, you know, they seem to really like his leadership there. Very stable. Is it, though? but then you look at their summer and like how long can Sony subsist on movies like Karate Kid Legends that gross a hundred million dollars their performance is down with Paramount I mean you look at the studio rankings Disney and Warner Brothers are having the two best years Universalist third but this is sort of an off year for them they're gonna have a huge year next year and they got a Jurassic it's fine and then you've got Paramount and Sony that are way below everybody else and that's not getting better.

21:22That's my point. It's like, yes, Universal may have a down year, but we know what they have coming and it's exciting. Right. And their down year is still much better than what Paramount and Sony do. Yeah. Can Sony be the studio that has a hundred million dollar grocers and then every three or four years they have a Spider-Man? Is that a business or does Sony need to go out and merge with Warner Brothers, you know, to bring some franchise material because Tom did a good job of like scraping the bottom of the barrel of what they have there and did Ghostbusters and they did a Garfield movie picked up that package and they are always in the market for picking up these packages that go to the market but they're not going to get all those Tarantino imploded that movie's not happening Bond is off the table Bond is off the table you know that he's talking about four Beatles movies that are coming out in three years at CinemaCon yeah Well, I guess he has this contract to plan for his post-Rothman future.

22:22Or they're going to buy something or merge something. I mean, it just feels like they need some kind of infusion of IP. Yeah, but the only things to buy are Lionsgate, which I don't think would meaningfully move the needle for them. No, those franchises aren't real. Or Warner Brothers, which is, you know... They went after Paramount. Yeah, they did. So, you know, they know they need this. They should do a Wheel of Fortune movie.

22:51You leverage all the game shows in there. Do a game show cinematic universe. Aren't they Jeopardy too? Yeah, they are Jeopardy. Those are like the biggest franchises in America. Well, they make so much money. I know. It's for like the over 50, over 60 set. Like just create a story. Do a Slumdog Millionaire, but with Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy. Free ideas here on the town. All right. So we believe that there are not any firings coming. Can I ask you guys a question? Yeah. I want to go back to Warner Brothers. So they've had four, maybe five great movies this year, strong hits. Does this mean that Mike and Pam are now one battle after another proof?

23:29Which is the Paul Thomas Anderson movie for those that don't. Yes, that is a$150 million art house movie with Leo DiCaprio. And if that movie makes$45 million in theaters, are they fine? Total? Sure. If it's$45 million total, I don't think they're safe. If it's a$45 million opening, I think they're safe. Yeah. If it's like a true catastrophe, like the biggest bomb of the year, nobody's safe after the biggest bomb of the year. But sparing that, I think they've bought themselves plenty of time or as much time as they're going to want for the foreseeable future. Yeah. Although Brooks at the Times asked Zasloff whether Mike and Pam were safe.

24:07And he basically didn't say that they were not getting fired. He just said they're doing a great job. So he left himself a little wiggle room there. If it grosses$45 million globally, I think Peter Safran starts to look at Mike and Pam's parking spots and measure up his own Tesla. Do you guys think it's more than likely that in 2029, DC and Marvel have figured it out and they're kind of back at their peak and the slump is over? Or in 2029, it's a massive... 2029, Craig? Are you really asking us about 2029? Yeah. Well, I want to know if you think this is the beginning of... You mean when there are three studios and there's like half as many movies are made.

24:48Okay, fine. I don't know. Warner Brothers is owned by Microsoft. All I'm saying is, do you think like three, four years from now, like Feige is still there, Marvel's on its way back up, DC, the new universe has worked and it's cooking, or it's the complete opposite and the superhero era is basically over? You want that. I know you want that. Of course I do. Of course I do. Well, I don't think the superhero movie era is over because they're commissioning superhero movies right now that'll come out in that period. So it's definitely not over. Matt Reeves will take at least three or four years to do another Batman movie, even though they have a October, 2027 release date for Batman 2.