The End-of-Year Exec Survey: Next Disney CEO, Where to Sell Your Movie, and Worst Media Exec

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1:47It is Monday, December 29th. Happy holidays. Hollywood may be shut down this week, but the town is always on. Today, it's all about predictions, not ours specifically. It's the executives who run the entertainment business. They're telling us what they think, or at least a survey of executives is telling us what they think. Lucas Shaw, our Monday guy from Bloomberg, he and his team did a poll of about 700 executives in Hollywood and the music industry and asked them things like, who's going to end up with Warner Brothers, the Disney CEO Endgame, the worst executive in media. I have my thoughts on that one.

2:21It's interesting stuff, so I asked Lucas to take us through some of the highlights and the biggest surprises. A little spoiler, our guy David Zasloff, not commanding a huge amount of respect in the industry. We'll also do a little on the Christmas box office, how Avatar 3 is doing, the Timmy Chalamet discourse. Overall, a pretty wild weekend at the Cineplex. Lots to discuss, So today it's executive predictions and the holiday box office narratives. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town.

2:53All right, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg, back from a nice little vacation in Spain. Lucas, did you watch Avatar in Spanish? We talked about it. Camilla has not seen the first or second Avatar. Oh, that's rough. Yeah, she wasn't going to jump in midway on the third. I actually did want to see Sentimental Value while I was gone. And then I realized that I asked my mom, who had seen it, how much of the movie was in English. And she's like a little less than 50%. So watching that movie with Spanish subtitles for Norwegian was probably not the way to go. No, double subtitles for the Norwegian.

3:30It's like watching it in one foreign language. Yeah, exactly. Okay. Well, a lot happening at the box office while you were gone. Pretty amazing weekend, actually. This is like harkens back to yesteryear when the Christmas holiday would give us like seven or eight quality movies for different audiences. I feel like we haven't really had that post-COVID. Even without the four-day holiday, seven movies hit 10 million this weekend at the box office. And all different kinds of movies. You have everything from Avatar to something for brain-dead men with Anaconda, brain-dead women with The Housemaid.

4:11Everything was there. Which of the seven were you most surprised by? Honestly, I think you want me to say Marty Supreme. No, no, I don't. And the fact that it got to 25. I was not surprised by that. Should we go over what they are? So it's Avatar, Zootopia 2, Marty Supreme, The Housemaid, Anaconda, David, and SpongeBob movie. Yeah. And you forgot Song Song Blue. But it didn't get to 10 over the weekend. Oh, not on the three-day. Yeah, on the four-day it did. Yes. The Song Song Blue numbers don't seem great. They're okay. I mean, that movie only cost$30 million and$12 million. It'll get in the black.

4:47It's fine. That's the kind of movie that plays for a while. Old people love it. And I think I'm most surprised by The Housemaid and that that movie's like at$50 million already after two weekends. We could talk about the Chalamet narrative. And yes, he is now considered a star, I believe, because he opened this movie. But Sydney Sweeney, nice little comeback vehicle after Christie bombed. This is the type of movie people want to see her in. They need to stop trying to make her do the things that people don't want to see her in. I know. Not that she was going to get an Oscar nomination anyways, but I think this does norbit her a little bit.

5:21This is like very campy, very kind of silly and not the kind of movie that your Oscar campaign wants. But this is what people want out of her. So you got to lean in. I agree. Let's talk about Chalamet because I don't want to be that guy, but I'm going to be that guy. 70 million budget for Marty Supreme. This movie opens to 24, 25 million and everyone goes nuts. Timmy's a star. He can open this movie. The blimp worked. The marketing campaign was brilliant. The biggest marketing campaign in A24 history. Yeah. The biggest budget in A24 history. and it's still got a path to go to get to profitability.

6:03This movie needs to make$175,$180 worldwide to get into the black with the$70 million budget. Just in theatrical. Just in theatrical, yeah. And I just don't know if$27 million is enough. It was$27 million for the four-day, which is great. It was supposed to gross about$15 million for the four-day, according to NRG, and it vastly improved over that number. but we'll see how it plays over the next week or two. It could easily do it. But I know like the international on this movie is not going to be great. It's very American. It's a sports story. It's very Jewish. Like, I don't know how big it's going to be overseas.

6:43So they really got to lean into the U S which they've been doing. And is this movie going to get to profits? Don't know. On the theatrical run. Maybe not. Probably not. I think all in, it'll be fine. I mean, it's probably going to hit, what, 75 to 100 easy domestic. Yeah. Which, if it grosses 100 domestic, it would be A24's biggest movie of all time. Domestic. Right. And they have the big HBO output deal. Yeah, but we're not counting that. We're judging on theatricality here. And if they get a bunch of Oscar noms, good for them. It's going to get a bunch of Oscar noms. A lot of people now kind of see it as like the alternative to one battle after another.

7:20It's not going to win, but it's second or third. Chalamet will contend for best actor. they'll have some, you know, people will get nominated for supporting roles. It'll be an awards player, which is so it's an awards player that has like big gaudy numbers that look a little bit better than maybe they really are on paper for the reasons you're saying. And we also don't know. I don't know what they did in terms of kind of pre-sailing or hedging internationally. That's true. With everything everywhere, the box office narrative really helped that movie. The fact that it was a small movie that did very well for A24 really helped its Oscar trajectory.

7:56And I think if this movie breaks out, it could actually really help at the awards race. I think it's similar to One Battle in that it did well enough considering that it's a really good movie that's going to be nominated for a bunch of awards. It has a star that everyone believes in. You know, Sinners is the same way. Sinners would not be Sinners if it did not hit at the box office. Now it's a Best Picture contender. Sinners is a win even without any awards, right? It crossed$300 million for a$90 million movie. That's really good. But remember, Sinners opening weekend, we were here being those guys saying, listen, open big, but let's see how it legs out.

8:32And it did. And it legged out really well. Yeah, exactly. So we're going to be those guys again and say it about Timmy. One battle after another didn't quite repeat the trajectory. It did fine. And then Marty Supreme, we'll see. It will go in that order. Sinners is the highest growth thing of the three. Then one battle. Then Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme, the cheapest of the three. But not by that much compared to Sinners. Right. Okay. Okay, so let's move on. I want to talk about your exact survey because I read this thing every year. I love it. You got 700 people to return your survey and you asked a bunch of questions.

9:04I'm going to go through my five favorites and we're going to talk about the answers to this. Number one, of course you had to ask who will end up owning Warner Brothers and Warner Brothers Discovery. The top answer was Netflix. Netflix has a signed deal at this point, but only 52 % of the vote said Netflix. So not a runaway, not a runaway here. We did the poll before Warner Brothers reiterated that Paramount should fuck off. Well, and Paramount got 38 % of the vote and then 10 % of people said someone else. So I don't know if that would be more like, you know, 65 % now for Netflix or if it would stay where it is, but it is obviously an inversion of where people had been for a long time.

9:50But why do you think there is such skepticism that Netflix will get it? You think with a closed deal, people would say this is over. Well, executives in the industry are, this is like one of those where it's going to sound like somewhat self-aggrandizing, but they are often asking us. No, I know. That was going to be my big point I was going to make about this because this comes up in the Disney question too. It's like, nobody knows anything. They just don't. And they go by what they read in the media. So like often what we are covering and what we are saying, I hate that this is going to sound douchey, but like people just mirror that they parrot that back to each other.

10:28And so if there had been this conventional wisdom all along that Paramount was the favorite, and even now people are covering, like it's being covered, not just by us, but by everyone as sort of like a battle between Netflix and Paramount, because yes, Netflix has the signed deal, but Paramount is, you know, waging an aggressive campaign to try to get there, to try to win. And everybody in town knows how much the Ellisons have in terms of financial backing. Right. Curious whether Larry is going to allow it to be deployed. Between the financial backing, the political stuff, I think there's a feeling that the Ellisons might still have an edge.

11:05Well, that's what was interesting. You asked a follow-up, and the question was, what worries you most about a potential deal? And this is where the reality of the situation doesn't match the perception. Because of the media, I think. There's been so much coverage of the blow up at CBS News and the Trump stuff and everything that the top answer was people are most worried about the Ellison's overhauling CNN. And CNN is like a tiny part of this deal. Yet it is the number one concern for Hollywood people that the Ellison's would get their hands on CNN. Well, in fairness, I did not ask about job cuts, which I think would be the number one concern.

11:47but that's because job cuts are a big part of either bid. So it didn't feel like a way to differentiate between them. Not if you ask Netflix. Netflix is like, oh, we're going to keep everybody and Paramount's going to kill the entire workforce. I mean, I do think the initial layoffs in a Paramount deal would be more striking, but overall down the line is like both of these scenarios are consolidated. But you talked about the coverage of Elle Sims. CNN, I would argue that the Netflix movie stuff has gotten as much, if not more attention. And so I was surprised that that was behind not just the Ellisons overhauling CNN, but the fact that the Ellisons have Middle Eastern money.

12:26Yeah, that was the runner up. I figured people would just be like, eh, it happens. Because Hollywood's a parochial town, right? I figure people would be more concerned about the movie business than about Middle Eastern money. I think if you specifically zeroed in on movie executives, it would probably be a higher thing. Yeah, there's a lot more television and streaming people in town now than there are movie people. That's true. That's probably one. All right, let's go to number two on the list. Who will be the CEO of Disney in 2027? Top answer, an upset. You've done this survey many years before.

13:03It's always been Dana Walden, the head of streaming and TV. Now, Josh DeMauro, the head of Parks. That's not an upset, though. That just mirrors the conventional wisdom. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. This year was designed to weed it out and to tease out who would ultimately be the successor here. And I think we have an answer within the community is that they've done the vetting. They've done the process. And the media and people in town now believe it's Josh. Right. many people thought that there would be a co-CEO situation. Bob Iger explored a co-CEO situation. I don't know about... Bob Iger's not making the decision.

13:44Bob Iger's not making the decision. I know. The board is making the decision. How dare you? But we know that Bob Iger talked to Ted Sarandos about how the co-CEO situation works at Netflix. And I think we know also that the board has at least discussed it, right? Yeah. Well, I've heard conspiracy theories that Bob asked Ted because he knew it would leak and he wanted the town to think that they at least explored this and that it was always going to be josh but he wants the perception that they were thorough and gave dana her shot i guess i guess um i don't know if that's true i love a good disney conspiracy theory the disembodied head of walt disney is ultimately deciding who the one they keep in the in the vault down in the basement of the rotunda is ultimately deciding who the next CEO is.

14:35Not sure where I'm supposed to go with disembodied. It's an animatronic Walt Disney, Lucas. Okay. Or what I think is more likely is that they will announce a realignment of all executives where Josh becomes CEO and Dana becomes like president or chief content officer or some elevated title that allows her to have more authority, but not be CEO. Yeah. I mean, what else is there to say? We will know soon. Yeah. We're expecting first quarter of 2026, right? Yeah. It will briefly steal the thunder from the Warner Brothers process. Exactly. Question, do you have your Josh gets CEO story pre-written?

15:22That's a good question. We obviously do templates for a lot of scenarios. Yeah. It's been long enough on that one that I would actually have to look through our various things. Would it be like an obituary where it's written by someone who no longer works at the company and you just save it until it becomes true? No, because they've been... If we still had like a Tom Stagg CEO of the company, then maybe... Just update that story. Yeah.

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17:22But if you look back at the year, Warner Brothers should be the number one here because they turned at least three original ideas into hits. Well, but I don't think one year does it for you, right? Warner Brothers, the success that they had this year meant that Warner Brothers moved up several spots, right? Universal's been number one every year. So Warner Brothers has now established itself as the other place to go if you've got really good original ideas. And if they continue to crush it, right, if they have a really good 2026, then maybe they really eat into Donna's lead. Maybe. I just, I'm looking at the year that Universal had.

18:02And, like, you take out Jurassic and you take out Wicked and pretty rough. So you take out two of their biggest movies of the year? Yeah. I'm just saying those are pre-branded. Donna, I mean, she's done a great job managing the franchise. Sure. Like the Jurassic franchise goes back to 1993. Yes, their franchises are long in the tooth, but they didn't have a bunch of new hits, but we're what, two years out from Oppenheimer? Yeah, they knew this was going to be a down year. And next year, if the Odyssey hits, if the Spielberg movie hits, they have a Minions next year. They have a Mario next year.

18:39Yes, they have it lined up for next year. Right. They did not have the same run of sort of maybe like originally movies. But they also remember they they also have all the focus projects. They do. And they have Blumhouse and they have, you know, these feeder things that come to them, which Donna did set up. And she's nurtured those relationships with Blum and with Melodondry. Yes. Although Hamnet not doing well at the box office. I had hoped Hamnet would have done better. You mean an adaptation of a book about Shakespeare character? I know. I know. Not not very commercial. It's also a huge bummer of a movie, but it's very good.

19:16and it's going to be an awards contender. Were you surprised that Apple was third in this? A little. Just because they've basically abandoned theatrical movies except for like F1. But I think because F1 hits, everyone has the Jerry Bruckheimer stars in their eyes being like, oh, I can do my own F1 at Apple. But they're just not doing that except for the biggest, most pre-branded packages that they can get their hands on. Are you surprised that Netflix is above Paramount, Sony and Disney? Or is that just because you get paid? Yeah. And they're making movies. Yeah. Disney is a very hard place to sell a new movie.

19:56You can't. You can't. It's just very difficult unless it's Searchlight or maybe 20th. But Netflix is making 30 movies a year. So, of course, people are going to be into that. The follow-up question to that that Lucas asked, which was, Netflix wants to buy your movie but won't put it in theaters. Do you sell it to them anyways if you have another lower offer? And people said, no, they don't. This should be evidence in the trial that is eventually going to happen about Netflix taking over Warner Brothers because nobody wants this. They don't want to have to sell their movie to Netflix. Ted can go on all day and night about how filmmakers love working there.

20:38And it's a great place. And they get more reach for their movies than they'd ever have in theaters. You know what? he's been doing this for 10 years. He knows. Ted knows that filmmakers want theaters. This is why they are buying Warner Brothers, because they know that they can't offer the thing that filmmakers want. Well, they can offer it, but they haven't. So they will buy Warner Brothers and maybe for the right filmmakers, they will put their movies at Warner Brothers. Yeah, they had a pretty, pretty good crop of filmmakers making movies for them this fall. They did. But I mean, we don't have to go through each project, but several of those were projects that other studios would not make.

21:16Why is Amazon seven times smaller than Apple in this poll in terms of where you want to sell you? I don't understand that one. I got to be honest. I don't understand that either. I mean, they're putting movies in theaters. They are putting marketing behind them. They have professional people now running the studio. Amazon, we should say, is dead last in this list of there's eight options of where you would sell your movie. Universal is first at 258 out of 700 votes. Amazon has 15 out of 700. Apple has 104. The Apple one versus Amazon, I don't understand. But Amazon has historically been a really difficult place for people to work on both film and television side for several years.

21:54And one, I think some of the TV aura of people in the industry is probably benefiting Apple here. I think the success of F1 this summer, Amazon doesn't have a defining movie. Oh, the blasphemy for Red 1 right now is just off the charts. They popped up again on the Nielsen charts around Thanksgiving. People watching The Rock. They've reset the relationship with under Courtney Valenti, but they need the movies to work. So like they have a big slate this upcoming year. If a couple of those movies work, I think you see Amazon come up, but they have nothing to point to right now. Yeah. If Project Hail Mary turns into the F1 of next summer, then they will go up on this list.

22:32because that one actually looks pretty good. But isn't that coming out in like February or March? No, that's the Chris Pratt sits in a chair movie, Mercy. That's January. No, it comes out March 20th. Okay, all right. So it's March. So it's a spring movie. Yeah. But I think that one has a chance. Ryan Gosling, sci-fi, Lord and Miller. That one could be good. I'm looking forward to it. They're very high on it. Okay. Let's move on to the last one. My favorite topic. who is the worst CEO in media top answer running away with it again David Zasloff CEO of Warner Brothers Discovery runner-up David Ellison CEO of Paramount Skydance Skydance Paramount and nobody else really matters well I mean you had you also asked the best CEOs we're not going to get into that because everyone always says Iger but last place the Netflix guys I mean what does this mean David Zaslav just pulled off the deal of all deals, got$30 a share for a company that most people did not think would get$20,$22 a share.

23:37Like, why the disrespect here? Why is our guy being dragged through the mud? Because that doesn't benefit the average employee, I think. I mean, it does if you have stock, I guess. But he's still getting killed for a couple years of people feeling like he mismanaged the company or PR fails. Well, and the salary. The fact that he's paid himself so much money, I think, really does impact your impression around town. If this$600 million actually happens and he has paid this much money, I think it's going to impact him socially around town. Is there any way for Zaslav to escape being named the worst CEO in media?

24:16Yes. How? Donate$300 million to the Motion Picture Fund? I think it's just someone else becoming the villain. He became the face of the problems in Hollywood over the last couple of years, rightly or wrongly, right? And so assuming this deal for Warner Brothers goes through, then someone else is going to become the villain, whether it's David Ellison, because he got the second most votes already and people have a problem with the politics, or the new Disney CEO comes in and people decide they really don't like them. Someone else has to step in it in a big way. Yeah, the JPEC factor, the Bob JPEC factor.

24:51I think Zaslav could donate$300 million, half of his windfall from the sale to some foundation set up for Warner Discovery employees, the motion picture television fund. They are there for older people in the industry that need it. He could be a hero if he did that. Something about his history tells me he will not do that. But you gave the suggestion. And so if it happens, you can take credit. You can even ask for a 1 % commission. I will absolutely do that, which I will not be donating to charity. So, all right. Anything else surprise you from your survey, Lucas? The about face on Dana. You in your newsletter have noted once again that Disney is not growing in streaming.

25:36So you are essentially on the bandwagon for Dana Wallin does not deserve to be CEO. I'm not on any bandwagon. You are. You are providing evidence to the board. I was a little surprised. I mean, it echoes a conversation earlier that we had. but that for like next big movie star, that Chalamet got more than half the votes. But I didn't even include that because that's so obvious. Everyone says that. Everyone, oh, Chalamet is like the great white hope around town. Everybody thinks that he can save the movie business. And I was a little surprised that when I asked about where people would sell their shows, that HBO Max, despite all the problems, almost tied Netflix, only because as I've done this, HBO Max has like seeded ground over the years.