The Future Blockbusters Draft: The Directors, Actors, and IP That Will Define the Next Decade

0:04This episode is presented by AMC Network. A new chapter in Anne Rice's Immortal Universe begins with AMC's The Vampire Lestat. Get a backstage pass to the iconic frontman who Pace Magazine calls a Bowie-inspired rocker that will have fans screaming. Don't miss the legendary vampire Lestat de Liancourt in his own electrifying rock saga. Experience the glory and darkness. Binge the Vampire Lestat only on AMC+. Learn more at amcplus.com. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed.

0:42That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify.com. It is Monday, July 27th. Of all the discourse around the Odyssey and Chris Nolan this past week and a half, the most interesting to me is this question of whether filmmakers are the new intellectual properties.

1:19I raised this issue in my Puck newsletter and came to the conclusion that A-level IP is still A-level IP. I'd still rather own Spider-Man rights than the next film from any filmmaker, including Chris Nolan. But I'd argue that the very top filmmakers are the new movie stars, a much more effective lure for fans than whoever is actually starring in the movie. After all, if I was a studio head or a top producer presented with the next Chris Nolan movie, I'd take that way before the next movie starring Leo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan nor any of the stars that are supposedly filling theaters. Wouldn't you?

1:51That's today's show. When presented with the choice of any element, an actor, a filmmaker, a piece of IP, which would you choose first? Lucas Shaw is here. We're going to do one of our drafts, but this time it's a future blockbuster draft of sorts. We're each picking 10 elements, directors, actors, or intellectual properties that we think will help us win the box office from now through the next 10 years. Got it? We will explain. Today is the first of a very special two-part episode, the future blockbuster draft. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany, and this is The Town.

2:28Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw, our normal Monday guy. Lucas, this is a complicated draft, so I'm going to have to lay out some of the ground rules. Are you ready for this? I am. We've been debating them feverishly for the last night. I know. I don't like to bother you during the week with texts that Craig and I are constantly discussing. Well, I deserve it because I sort of proposed this, but then we had to figure out what it meant. Exactly. The drafts are hard. You've got to really define your terms. So this is the future blockbuster draft. So you and I are going to go back and forth picking elements.

3:04These are things that we would want to have in our movies. We're only doing movies, no TV. we are picking a team for the next 10 years so you're a studio chief and you're assembling your own avengers and as it's the case with our previous sort of franchise ip you can select individual characters or franchises like spider-man but not all of marvel like batman but not all of dc this is the first time we have compared properties ip with people filmmakers stars. No non-writing producers. You can pick a filmmaker who also produces and you get their producing projects, but we're not picking Amy Pascal or Jason Blum, Chris Melodondre, people who do not direct as well.

3:54Also, their companies are quasi-owned or partially owned by the studios, so they are out. We are going for the elements that you would assemble if you were assembling a film project. What would you want most. All right? Understood? I'm there. We're going to go back and forth and then Craig is getting a butt lift this week, so he's out. Producer Jesse is here and we will go back and forth and at the end Jesse will explain the teams and pick who he thinks will be the winner here. So you get the first pick. Okay. I think the first pick is obvious. At least to me. It's still Spider-Man. God damn it.

4:33I know I thought you were going to pick some auteur filmmaker like there's nothing as dominant as Spider-Man. I know, yes. In this year where we were talking about, okay, there's new filmmaking talent. There's new IP that people are excited about. There's old IP that people are bored of. Spider-Man appears to be bulletproof. This new movie is looking like it's going to be the biggest movie of the year. You know, famous last words, I have it on my team for our box office draft, so maybe it won't be. But between that and the fact that they still have the animated franchise humming that is very popular.

5:08I just, I think Spider-Man remains the king of all of this and there's not really any argument against it. I totally agree. I think it is now the outlier amongst superheroes. Yeah. Where most of the other superhero franchises have shown weakness and have questions around them, even Avengers and even Batman, if this Batman movie from Matt Reeves is ever going to happen. I think Batman is strong, but not yet. Yeah, there's not like excitement around it in the same way that there is, seems to be with Spider-Man or really any of the Marvel properties other than I guess Deadpool. Yeah, but they're heading on number four now.

5:47So that's a challenge. Spider-Man and also it comes in two varieties. It comes in live action and animated and we're not even getting into the spinoffs. So yeah. Yes, agreed. So, all right, that's a smart number one pick. My number one pick, I am also going to go with a franchise. I am going to take Mario Brothers. Interesting. Okay. Even though this second movie, the Galaxy movie, was softer than the first, it still got to a billion. Yeah. And there are spinoff possibilities. And we can set the parameter however we want. But I believe that if there's a Princess Peach movie, it should count under Mario Brothers.

6:27maybe Donkey Kong is separate because that was a game on its own and that would be a separate franchise but there are going to be Mario Brothers movies every three years for the next 10 to 15 years so I'm going to put my money there the question there is what lesson do they take from a drop off of kind of 30-ish percent from 1 to 2 do they just say that's normal it happens with any franchise do they say we need to take a second and figure out, like, really wait for the third one? Because I do think one of the big discussions happening at all these studios right now is sort of what is the appropriate time off between properties where we don't exhaust people.

7:07Yeah, especially after Minions. I mean, the feeling at Universal is they went too soon with another Minions movie and it really damaged the franchise. Yeah. And then the whole Moana debacle where they put the sequel out before the live action remake and that was a problem. But that's pretty unique. I had Mario on the list. I did have it considerably further down, in part because that drop off from the one to two. I don't know with some of these properties if there's just so much pent up enthusiasm for the first one. And then are they going to be able to sustain it across multiple movies? I do think with Mario, it's like it's something that isn't globally known.

7:48And it's in the hands of someone in Illumination and Universal that has been pretty good at managing these franchises. I just think it's safe. I'm going the safe pick. So for number one, but we're going to make some more interesting choices here. So what's your number two? This is where I'm already starting to deviate. So I'm taking Nolan number two. God damn it. You're doing my draft here. Well, those were my clear consensus first and second picks. I had Mario further down. I just think the clear winner among franchises and the most dependable director where everything that he touches turns to gold right now.

8:28I know that he's saying he needs to take years off after this. I'll believe that when I see it. And also if that happens, like if you're just telling me, who do I want to be in business with? I would take Christopher Nolan over any other non Spider-Man individual franchise right now, just because the consistency is there. And there seems to be an audience for his movies kind of, he's not picking things that on their face are like, yep, Oppenheimer, a million people are going to show up to see this, this adult drama. oh yes the odyssey is an epic but that movie like the first bit of it is kind of slow and it's you know his movies are more thoughtful than your average blockbuster and so it just feels like he's entered a sweet spot and he's at the right age where i think he because we're only doing 10 years i think he's in his prime he's in his prime the next 10 years are still going to be really good he may come to a point where he's more like spielberg where it's hit and miss but i think he's still in the sweet spot yeah yeah yeah no that's over spielberg ridley scott those guys are heading out of their prime and they're you know they're still working but they're not reliable this guy is and he works in imax which is the future right all the plf premium screens he's he's just he has oppenheimer and odyssey have now put him on another plane from all of the other directors with the possible exception of jim cameron but he's just you know he's been in pandora for 20 years so we're just going to let him be okay so i'm gonna for my number two i'm also going to take a filmmaker okay i'll take ryan kugler yeah and the reason i'm taking him is not just because he's had big success with sinners i think he's in that nolan pantheon where whatever he does is going to be considered event he works pretty constantly like he's got a lot of projects in the works right now and he produces as well um he's producing tv and x files but he's also producing some other stuff and and then he's willing to work in franchises he's doing black panther 3 next i think of the directors kugler is consensus number two choice it was you know vulture put out that list of the 100 most powerful directors powerful is a loaded word but i do think that yeah i have some i have some issues with that list yes uh but the top five were pretty much what what I would say.

10:47I generally agree. And yes, the one two of Nolan Coogler with Nolan in a category of his own, I agree with. And yeah, I think the important thing about about Ryan Coogler, which you identified, is that he will he is committed to making commercial movies, right? He doesn't want to make dumb movies. He is making you know, there's a reason that that sinners earned a bunch of awards nominations. And but I think that he wants to make kind of movies that people go to the theater to see and has the same interest. Nolan is kind of a mentor to him in terms of formats and all that stuff. I guess I'll be curious what he does.

11:25I don't know that his movies are outside of Black Panther, which we don't get the properties as part of it, are as big as some of the other franchises that I want to take. Maybe. But I'd bet on him. If I was a studio head or a producer, I'd be like, yes, he's on my team. And the guy's, he's 40 years old. Yeah. He's talking about, talking about entering your prime. Yeah. No, I don't, I can't quibble with it. Okay. Number three. So don't piss me off here. I might piss you off. I am, I am a big believer that the new nostalgia is late 90s and early 2000s. And that the movies from that period are what we're seeing work.

12:08We saw it with Devil Wears Prada. I think we're going to see it later this year with Fockers. So you're picking American Pie. You know, I know how much that movie means to you and that a lot. I think you and I are I'll be curious for our box office draft for next year, because I think you and I are generally in alignment about what one of the biggest movies will be. Oh, damn it. And so I actually have a tie of Nostalgia IP. But because I know you're high on this one, I need to get on this one before you take it. And so I'm going to I'm going to take Shrek. So you're taking Shrek and with Shrek, Shrek 5 coming out next year, you also get the donkey movie that they have announced with Eddie Murphy.

12:47I'm less convinced about a donkey movie. Oh, really? Oh, I think it's going to be big. I think it'll work, but there is certainly risk with it. The question I have for you, because I think it's relevant to this, same with sort of like Toy Story and Lilo and some of these other movies, is I think there's no question that Shrek 5 is going to be huge, right? There's just going to be like both young kids who grew up watching them, who get to see it in theaters for the first time. They're going to be parents who get to it, who grew up on it the first time around, who are excited about it. It sort of has perfect cross-generational awareness.

13:24Is there an appetite to quickly follow up five with more movies? And will there be similar interests? Sort of like with Mario, right? Are you going to see it sustain? Yeah, no, they've got a 10-year plan. Okay. They've got a 10-year plan at DreamWorks and Universal. And they've got Chris Melodandre at Illumination helping out. Like, the Donkey movie announcement was not an accident. This is going to... They've got a storyline. That's them projecting we know what we're doing. We're going to... Okay. I'm just glad I'm making you envious one after another. I got to be doing something right. You really are.

13:59I mean, it's bad enough that I'm losing this year's draft. Now you've got three... You got Spider-Man, Nolan, and Shrek. I'll be very curious because the next two I want to take in my ranking, I don't know that you're going to go for. One of them I know you're not. One of them you might. For number three, I think I'm going to go Batman. Okay. Just because there's safety in Batman. We know, even though Matt Reeves is now attached to this, there's going to be, in the next 10 years, at least two to three Batman movies. and they're all going to hit. That's a lot safer to me than I was going to pick Minecraft, to be honest.

14:42And yes, I think the next Minecraft movie will be big. But if it sucks, then where does that? Yeah, where do you go? Then maybe it's over. But I think Batman, even if it sucks, you can always reboot Batman. And there's always some hot new filmmaker that will come in and have a spin on Batman. Yeah. so I think I think I'm gonna go with that Batman feels it is the most safe of the DC properties it is not Superman or Supergirl basically none of the movies have failed oh god no you're not picking Clayface is your next choice I'm not I actually have something that I think would surprise you but I I don't actually know enough about what the plans are for it so I'm going to go with in a different direction minecraft is up there but i actually have more confidence in demon slayer than i do in minecraft demon slayer demon slayer not k-pop demon hunters which is further down on my list yeah i i will get there yeah um demon slayer for those unfamiliar i think i picked this in a previous one and you're like what are you doing i don't sound like that but Okay.

15:51It is the most popular anime manga franchise right now. If you look at the highest grossing movies of, I believe, last year, it was top five, I think. Yeah, but how many have there been? Haven't there already been like four? No, there are at least two more coming. Okay, but they have done previous Demon Slayer movies. Sure. Who cares? They have done... How many previous Batman movies have they made? I know, but what's the ceiling on a Demon Slayer movie? The last movie made$793 million worldwide. okay that's good but not a billion not a billion i you're correct it might not be a billion batman might have higher potential i just we're talking about the future and i think anime is something with real global appeal that is only getting bigger and i think the the last it is especially x us it is a huge property um and i just if i'm talking about what i want i've got spider-man which is the biggest superhero i've got nolan who's the best director i've got shrek which i think is going to be the next big kids movie and i've got demon slayer which is sort of like hot international ip and i'm i'm rolling that's all i have to say yeah you're definitely your list is cooler than mine for sure mine's safe and a little older but but yeah that so you're essentially betting on anime yeah that's smart i i think i if i had if you had to pick one anime franchise, it would be that one.

17:16Not Ni Ha or what's the Chinese movie that gross$2 billion? Ni Ja? Ni Ja? No, I'm not trusting Chinese movies. That is not happening. You're not? No. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result, less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most.

17:59To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify. Okay, so my four. Yeah. Class it up with Crocs. You know back to school is coming in fast. So why wait to find your new Fave footwear? Step into a local Croc store and step into your new look. Try it. Style it. Make it yours. Because the right pair doesn't just show up. It shows off. First day fits, handled. Walk out ready for whatever's next. Visit your nearest Croc store today. Right now, get up to 15 % off select storage solutions. Put heavy-duty HDX totes to good use, protecting what's important to you. The solid, impact-resistant design prevents cracking, and the clear base and sides make items easy to find even when the totes are stacked.

18:51Find select shelving and tote storage up to 15 % off at the Home Depot to organize every room in your home, from your garage to your attic. Visit homedepot.com. How doers get more done. I'm taking Frozen. Ooh, okay. Frozen is massive We know Frozen 3 and Frozen 4 are coming Because they essentially booted Jennifer Lee Out of her role running Disney Animation To go and make these movies They've signed up all the cast They've got the rights in order There will be Frozen 3, 4, 5 The parks are just starting to get the IP into them And this is going to be That and Moana I thought about taking Moana Even though I just had a miss but Moana 3 is coming.

19:38I just think Frozen 3 is further down, further down the road, and it will be massive for the next decade. This is the first one where I probably overthought it and you picked the meat and potatoes pick that is the right pick. I think it's because there hasn't been a Frozen movie in a little while. That's good. Yes, no, it is good. And I forget, was there a drop-off between 1 and 2? No. No. 2 outgrossed 1. I think Frozen is a safe and great choice. I have no notes. And I say this as the father of a young boy who has no interest in Frozen. It's still the biggest property for young girls. That and Moana.

20:22I know. I think Frozen is good. Frozen is... Listen, we have not picked any Disney franchise so far. Disney is the franchise company. How is that possible? This is the first Disney franchise we've picked. Well, Spider-Man technically Disney. I did think about that. And that was I really going to take two Sony movies before I took anything else. But and so I probably should have thought better of it, knowing that you would not take Demon Slayer in your next four picks. And I was not going to pick the correct. You could have said I could have just sat on it and taken Frozen. You could take Moana right now.

20:56We could do we could do 50 of these and I would not take Moana. No. Oh, you think Moana is over? I don't think Moana is over. You clearly have not gone trick-or-treating with a bunch of seven-year-olds. I don't think Moana's over. But if we're talking about what is the IP that feels fresh, that people are going to be excited about in the next 10 years, Moana is not on my list. I think that they really overdid it, and they now have to go back to the drawing board. And it's going to be a little while before they can do one of those movies. Well, Moana 3 is in the works. So I think by 28, 29, they'll have a Moana 3.

21:34Yeah. And it'll probably do fine. But unless it's great, I feel like you're risking diminishing returns with that. I could be wrong. And let me guess, you're not picking Dwayne The Rock Johnson as one of your elements that you'd want. Dwayne The Rock Johnson is not one of my elements. No. I'm not prepared to say that he's box office poison, but he's headed that direction. He's not poison, but he's not reliable. I'm going to really roll the dice here. So this is your number five pick. it's not like Shrek because there's not a movie that is on the calendar but a franchise that I think was popular that I trust people to bring back I think Disney's going to figure out what to do with X-Men.

22:14You're picking X-Men? Yeah. Wow. Okay. We know they are planted in Avengers Doomsday and there are X-Men or mysterious maybe X-Men movie dates on the calendar. I think that I think that there is going to be excitement for new X-Men movies. Even after seven, eight previous movies. Yeah, but when's the last one? The one that came out in COVID that was terrible and they dumped. I'm not counting that. And I guess Deadpool and Wolverine counts because Wolverine's in the X-Men. Deadpool, Wolverine kind of counts. Yeah. If I'm the Marvel folks and I'm looking at where there are green shoots in that, X-Men is something that they got from Fox that was very reliable when it was at Fox and that other than the Deadpool movies, there hasn't really been a good X-Men movie in a long time.

23:06Yeah, it's an appealing property. I've always liked those movies, but... I'm a believer. I realize I might be out on a ledge here. That is a risky pick, but I can support that. All right, my number five pick. I'm going with a person this time. I thought about this. I'll be curious who your person is. and it's not one of the directors on the vulture list. I'm going with Michael B. Jordan. Damn, that was, I thought about it and I probably should have done it. This guy has done, he's checked every box at this point. He has proven he can open a movie with Sinners. He's done IP with Creed and Black Panther.

23:47He has started directing. He directed Creed 3 and it has Thomas Crown Affair opening next year. He won a freaking Oscar And he is consistently underrated When it comes to his lure for audiences I think if I'm betting on a star For the next 10 years I'm picking him over Chalamet Over Zendaya Over Leo Because not only is he a star He's also a filmmaker He can direct So you get all of that As you get with him Yeah, I don't think it's close You think I mean, I think it is close with Zendaya. If the rumors are true and she's going to do Bourne movies and she has a more, you know, commercial sensibility, she got the drama to over$100 million.

24:35That movie does not make$20 million without her. I hear you. I just think that he has the track record proven as a director, producer, actor, and was definitely in my top 10. So you support that as well? Yeah, I mean, I think... Maybe not as high as five. No, no, no, no, no. That was, I was honestly debating between him and X-Men. And I should have done that because you wouldn't have taken X-Men. No, I wouldn't have, again. I think that he is, yeah, he is the movie star that you want. What is his age? He's about to be 40, I think. And also, if I get him, I don't care about you having Coogler because they're going to keep collaborating.

25:20And so I get a piece of that. he'll be 40 in February. So he and Kugler I know I have Kugler as well so I guess I'm doubling up on their movies they make together but that's okay. That's a good thing. I can count them twice. Yeah. Alright so we are now at five and five. We are going to take a break and end this episode and come back tomorrow for part two of the blockbuster, what are we calling this? The future blockbuster draft. The future blockbuster draft. Yes. Okay, we are back with the call sheet. Craig is here. He's back from his medical tourism. The nose looks great. The forehead looks amazing.

25:59Thank you. I said, give me the Anne Hathaway. You got it. It's tasteful. Thank you. Most important, it's tasteful. Yeah, looks natural. You could credibly play a warrior in BC times. All right. So big news while you were gone. Paramount has delayed the Warner Mount merger, the acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery until at least June of next year or when there is a resolution on the antitrust claims. This was the result of a gigantic negotiation between Paramount and California and the states that are suing. They essentially made the determination that they were going to lose the battle for the preliminary injunction in this case, which would have put a pause on the deal anyways.

26:47And they felt that this judge was leaning towards not even allowing them to produce evidence at this trial, at this little mini trial for the preliminary injunction. So they agreed to keep the delay intact and they will have a trial on the merits sometime later this year, maybe, or early next year. Paramount wants November. The states want in 2027. And that's when they will get to fully litigate the case. Because there was a 28-day restraining order granted or at a pause. It was a temporary restraining order. Yes. And so Paramount said, actually, we're nervous about losing that. So we actually would like more time to prepare a better argument so that we can potentially win long term.

27:31It wasn't even that. It was that there's a second issue with the preliminary injunction. The temporary restraining order just pauses it temporarily. The preliminary injunction would have paused the litigation through the entirety of the case until the end. And that could have been disastrous if they lost it. Now, they would have appealed and they would have gotten up to the Ninth Circuit, potentially even higher. But they wouldn't have been able potentially to submit evidence and depose people and have all this factual stuff that they believe is strong for their case. That's up to the judge and whether to allow that.

28:05And she refused to say whether she was going to allow that kind of evidence. So they basically threw up their hands and said, we'd rather just go to a mini trial. You know, both sides are spinning this as being good for them. Yes. It's a setback for Paramount. They wanted this deal to close. They thought that they could ran this through with the Trump administration. The other bodies around the world have all signed off on this. And they did not expect the political blowback to be this much where the states would get involved. These are all blue states. So, yes, it is politically motivated. I don't think the the the Ellison side has has any recourse here because they created the political situation.

28:48They went all in on Donald Trump and then predictably the Democrats fought back. And the only way that they knew how, which was via the blue state attorneys general. But this is a setback. And now we'll have to wait to see whether this deal is going to happen until the outcome of this trial. So Paramount wants a November trial. Bonta said he wants a January start date. Is that a midterms election thing? What's the reasoning behind that? They just feel that the sooner the better on Paramount's side, and they want to be able to prepare the case and depose all of the witnesses and gather all the evidence.

29:21And that was sort of the problem with the preliminary injunction hearing, is that it was going to happen so soon that they weren't going to be able to do any of this fact finding. And by the way, Bonta hasn't said January. He just said sometime in 2027. So he's holding out for as long in the future as possible because it gives him leverage. Because remember, there's this$650 million a quarter ticking fee that Paramount has to pay to Warner Brothers as this thing drags on. So let's say, I believe the journal said that he favors a January date, Bonta. So how many$650 million fees would they incur by January?