The Gen Z Box Office Boom and What They Think of Spielberg, Marvel, and Star Wars

0:04Matt Belloni:This episode of The Town is presented by HBO Max. For your awards consideration, HBO Max presents DTF St. Louis. In this darkly comedic series, a love triangle between three adults experiencing middle-aged malaise leads to one of them ending up dead. Don't miss the series TV Guide is calling transcendent and audacious. DTF St. Louis is streaming on HBO Max. Watch now. This episode is brought to you by FX's Love Story, John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissett. The critically acclaimed series explores the undeniable chemistry, whirlwind courtship, and high-profile marriage of one of the most iconic couples of the 20th century.

0:42Matt Belloni:With Sarah Pidgeon and Paul Anthony Kelly leading a cast including Naomi Watts, Constance Zimmer, Alessandro Nivola, and Grace Gummer. Called A Stunning Portrait of Love by Variety, Love Story is Emmy-eligible in all limited series categories. now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney Plus for bundle subscribers. It is Wednesday, June 10th. The obsession around town this summer, pun intended, is all about young moviegoers. What's bringing them back to theaters for movies like Backrooms, Obsession, Scary Movie, and more. How Hollywood can better appeal to this important demo. About a month ago, I did my annual focus group of high school kids on the west side of LA.

1:23Matt Belloni:You can find that on the Puck website in my newsletter. and it revealed some deep skepticism about movie stars and legacy franchises like Marvel and Star Wars and excitement about emerging properties like Minecraft and big filmmakers like Chris Nolan and Greta Gerwig. In general, the kids were pretty savvy about movies and how they're being marketed to and their entire place in the media ecosystem. I think Kevin Getz, the test screening guru and film researcher, he saw that focus group and probably got a little annoyed at my lack of scientific rigor and picking five kids from the west side of LA to interview.

1:57Matt Belloni:So he did his own survey of 200 Gen Z moviegoers across the country. He came up with his own results. That's what we're discussing on the show today. Kevin Getz is here. He's got a new book called How to Score in Hollywood and a podcast, Don't Shoot the Messenger. And we're going to get into what's going on at the box office this summer, the specific factors that appeal to young moviegoers and what Gen Z ultimately wants out of movie theaters. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellany and this is The Town.

2:29Matt Belloni:Okay, we are here with Kevin Goetz, who is founder and CEO of Screen Engine and a returning champion to The Town. Welcome back, Kevin. It's great to be back, Matt. Thanks for having me. How's the summer going so far from your perspective? The summer is looking good. I mean, look, it's up 13 or 14 % from last year. And it's very interesting, the things that are unfolding before us. Now, are you going to sit here and tell me with a straight face that you predicted Obsession would do 250, 300 million worldwide? Hell no. What did that movie test? Well, you know I can't talk about individual movies.

3:06Matt Belloni:Sure, okay. But well or not well or? Well, well, well. We are now seeing something very interesting happening where there are a lot of new filmmakers coming into the scene who have great relevance for the audience that they're trying to reach. And that audience is responding mainly through authenticity, tremendous authenticity. You know, Gen Z's are very smart, you know, 14 to 29 year olds. Yeah, I would use the word savvy. They're very savvy. I was just going to say that. Maybe I'll use the word savvy. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure they're smart too, but the savviness I found when I've done my focus groups, which I know you hate because they're not representative of the real world, but when I do my focus group of kids on the west side of LA, like they know shit.

3:57Matt Belloni:They know filmmakers. They know they can smell a bad trailer. Like they're very savvy. You know this, Matt. I think in your study, you asked for the five people, and I confirmed it with the 200 people, that in fact, that generation hasn't seen a TV commercial like all year, except maybe for a sporting event. But that tells you a lot about where they're getting their information and how they're being informed. So it's really about relevance and alignment. When studios think that they know what the audience wants, but don't really understand what the audience wants, they, the Gen Z's to your point about savvy smell it, they know it.

4:42And so, uh, I'm not certainly not shitting on any kind of, uh, any, and every movie has a reason to exist. Um, you know, my whole book is, is, is written, um, with that in mind, which is, you know, every movie if made and marketed for the right price should make money. And I, and my theory is that you can only do that if you truly understand the audience at the get-go, in the beginning, and how large or not large that audience is. And then you budget accordingly, not the other way around. And when you have to chase something because you assume it's a big property, you have to understand many of these movies are driven by their fanship and the level of that fanship.

5:28And if you look even at test screenings, you see a vast difference between how fans rate something and how fence sitters or non-fans or, you know, not rejecters, but non-fans rate something. And the question is, that fan base tells you very much how you might open in terms of the intensity of that interest. And then you have to do outside studies to understand how large that fan base actually is. But when you see a fan base not rally behind something in a really significant way and become like passionate advocates or like evangelists for that property, you then become, oh boy, that is a warning sign that you may not cut through.

6:14And that's an important, really important distinction.

6:17Matt Belloni:Well, we have examples right now of two different kinds of success stories where back rooms, clearly that IP meant something to the core audience. And they showed up on opening weekend,$81 million domestic. Then second weekend drops off 70%. So that's one kind of fandom. And then we have - That's Matt. It's a great example. I'm sorry. I just want to add to your stats there, if I may, on back rooms before you go on to the to the other one, which is 56 % of your audience is under 25. And 86 % of your audience is under 35 for backrooms. 86%. So that tells you so much. Keep going, man. The other - That's why I felt super old and awkward at the theater.

7:07Matt Belloni:By myself on a Sunday night. Walking with a trench coat. Yeah. But then there's the second kind of success, which is the obsession success, which was so low on tracking. It was single digits. I didn't even bother to give a prediction because I was like, Oh, this is going to be a single digit horror movie. come on. Really? I know. I know it. Craig, Craig has the audio. We're going to save it for the end of the year. We'll just throw it back in my face, but then opens to double that. Then keeps going up. And this is the kind of movie where the young audience adopted it as their own and became advocates.

7:44Matt Belloni:and started sharing. And Backrooms started it from the get-go. Yeah. They started it from the get-go. And then once the fan base petered out, the drop tells you what you need to know about the fans. You're exactly right. It's a wonderful example. And they are not the same movie. I mean, even though 77 % of the audience for Obsession was under the age of 35, 40 % was under 25 versus the 56 for Backrooms. You can see, though, the trend that Obsession played older, not tremendously older, and also, without talking out of school, about testing. Obviously, that movie must have had a very strong definite recommend because the definite recommend score at screenings is correlated to the opening weekend multiple.

8:38Matt Belloni:Meaning how much it ultimately performs on top of the opening weekend. It's the legs of the movie. So, for example, if you open to$10 million and your screening score was 20 points above the norm, you're likely to do over a three times multiple. So you're going to do 30 million plus, right, in the life of the movie. If it scores 10 points below the norm, you may be looking at only a 2.1 multiple. I'm kind of making these up because there's ranges, different genres, et cetera. But it's only$21 million. Now, you and I both know that that's just the box office number. And all the ancillary that follows that is based on that opening as well.

9:21So that's why test screenings are so bloody important because... Says the guy who does test screenings. Well, I'm not a fool. I know, I know. No, I believe in what I do. And the reason I believe in it, Matt, in large measure, is because of this. I'm not trying to torture filmmakers. I'm trying to say there is actual science to suggest that if you improve your definite recommend substantially, you are going to have more money at the box office.

9:49Matt Belloni:Well, you probably love this generation of YouTuber or young people raised on digital platforms because they seem to be much more in tune with audience metrics and how the content performs. You know, you hear stories about these filmmakers looking at eyeballs and whether they're distracted and trying to maximize interest. I mean, that's sort of antithetical to the previous generation of auteur coming out of Sundance. Screw you. I know what's good. You don't. You must love that. I do love that. And I also love the fact that, and I think you've said it, I've heard others say it as well, that we're sort of reliving the 70s in some weird way when renegade filmmakers came up.

10:31Like, when have you heard in the last 25 years, and I don't know how long you've been doing this, Matt, but I'm going on nearly four. About 25, yeah. Okay. In the beginning of your career, did you hear like young people going for the filmmaker? Like in your generation?

10:47Matt Belloni:It was not a thing because the fandoms did not proliferate online like they do today. You had to be in an AOL chat room or something like that in order to do it. Amen, brother. Absolutely. So what I'm saying now is young filmmakers are becoming stars themselves. Those filmmakers have an importance now. Now, I know you've been interested because you asked it in your survey and I confirmed it. Like Christopher Nolan in the in the mainstream movie dumb or film dumb is a king. I mean, he is somebody that even young audiences feel is a brand. I mean, he's much more of a brand than Homer's a brand. Let's face it.

11:31Matt Belloni:But my point here is beyond Nolan. Your polling also suggests that Gen Z is a little bit wishy-washy on both stars and named filmmakers beyond the AA list. The right star in the right role has great relevance. When they feel that a star is overexposed, when they feel like a star is just taking something for a paycheck, there seems to be pushback. Again, authenticity or ash play. Those things are very much in conflict. Yeah. One of your survey respondents said of Sidney Sweeney, she seems to never say no to anything one of your respondents said of zendaya dwayne johnson and kevin hart they all play the exact same role every time and we're sick of seeing them but survey after survey suggests zendaya is the only female movie star under 40 who matters yes so i don't believe that at all and i have to report on people that are outliers all the time That doesn't mean that you pay much attention to it.

12:38You know, Zendez clearly is one of the most bankable, incredible.

12:44Matt Belloni:Yeah, the drama doesn't get to$100 million without her. It doesn't get to a third of that. And let me tell you, those little guys, those out there who are younger than we are called Gen Z's, 77 % of the drama's audience was under 35. 44 % was under 25. So to your point, and now what I'm confirming is, come on, she's still the biggest, probably female star, certainly of her generation right now. Now, Spielberg, let's talk about Spielberg, because what I loved about the younger generation is this great respect for Steven Spielberg and for some of the older filmmakers who have a legacy and a body of work.

13:27And I think that is so fascinating because they sort of get his popularity. They respect it and they understand it. Now, will they show up?

13:39Matt Belloni:Yeah, that's the bigger question because you also reported that they were, quote, highly skeptical of his contemporary output and associated him with their parents. Correct. But why wouldn't they? I mean, I know. But but is that going to translate into butts and seats? Well, in the case of Disclosure Day, which is, I'm thinking, getting very, very strong reviews, it feels to me as though there's going to be a strong portion that will show up based on my tracking. The movie looks to be quite successful. And I think. You think so? It's going to get out of the 30s and open in the 40s? I believe so.

14:15Oh, God. I should never have said that. But, yeah, I do.

14:18Matt Belloni:Listen, we go out on a limb here. People, if we're wrong, we're wrong. I'm going to will it to happen. But by the way, if it did in the 30s, again, a respectable number, right? It's not a not for Steven Spielberg. I think he's disappointed at a 30 something opening. No, no, no, no. You have to look at the generational, as I said, relevance and the alignment again. Remember, yes, their parents will go, but that doesn't mean that they say won't go with their parents. It may not be their movie that they own, but there's cultural relevance. This podcast is brought to you by The Madison from Paramount Plus and executive producer Taylor Sheridan.

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16:17Matt Belloni:Just go to linkedin.com slash the town. That's linkedin.com slash the town. Terms and conditions apply. What does Gen Z feel about Marvel right now? because the answer to that question could say a lot about the next five to ten years of box office well let me uh say that it's a polarizing narrative there are certain folks that think that there's been an overexposure and then i also think about what the cultural impact is on a from a marvel or from even a Star Wars, because if you think about those legacy brands, and you kind of have to look at them almost together, there is a reinvention that absolutely has to take place.

17:13And I'm sure they're eminently aware of that because you've got to speak to what is relevant culturally, what means something value-wise, culturally-wise, to Zs and to half of millennials, for example.

17:29Matt Belloni:You say that Marvel understands they have to reinvent, yet what do we have coming? We have an Avengers movie where they're bringing back the old actors to play the hits again. That's not a reinvention. Well, that's fair play, but let me say on that particular movie, that would fall under the other category of cultural zeitgeist. That has a multi-generational affinity, that particular one. When you do some of the offshoots where you don't feel part of the joke because you weren't in that mythology, you didn't grow up with it, you don't know it, you feel like that's a harder one to swallow. But when you're talking about something as broad as Avengers, it's going to be a huge.

18:08We missed the biggest movie of the year, which is Spider-Man. Now, Spider-Man is going to be massive. it's going to be massive because it falls under that cultural zeitgeist younger z's and of course every single generation love the property yeah that's why i think you're kind of wrong about

18:32Matt Belloni:the equating marvel to star wars they are two entirely different mythologies franchises they They play very different. Star Wars is based on these iconic movies that are the kind of Rosetta Stone of the franchise. Marvel has thousands of characters and there are marquee characters, but it can, in my opinion, be reinvented. Star Wars is much tougher. Well, I'm not saying it's tougher or not tougher. I'm saying that both are legacy brands that have mythologies. And so that's why I'm not wrong. What I'm trying to express is that both have to find ways in. Look, when I tested, I say this because it's been in my books and so forth.

19:22When Barbie came out, when Barbie was not Barbie, I did a massive IP test for Mattel. And basically, I'm going to be honest with you, I told Robbie Brenner, the head of the you know, motion picture and television division at Mattel to run. And she said, Kevin, I can't run. This is our biggest property. I said, well, it's already gone through a couple of iterations. It's not worked. Unless you reinvent the DNA, which I don't think I've ever seen, you're not going to be successful. And guess what? They reinvented the DNA. so they found a way in Matt when I tell you that nobody wanted to see that just based on the idea of it being a movie like I would be understating

20:12Matt Belloni:that box office poison so you think Star Wars needs to be Barbie eyes correct they have to find the coolness to those properties yet again for the new generation well they literally went and got Ken and put him in a Star Wars movie and we get it next summer with Starfighter Well, from your mouth to God's ears. All right. So you think Gen Z is open to Marvel, skeptical, but it's not a lost cause. Not at all a lost cause. But it's incumbent upon the leaders of the franchise, of the brands, and the IP, and the overall sort of master brand, if you will, to—they understand it. I mean, come on. I'm sure they are thinking about it every day of their lives.

20:56But that is also, Matt, about what I said about PR people and stars. Like there has to be a really good management of how much information is going out more judiciously planted and in an authentic way. Now, that requires speaking very directly to them, you know, and that that is why it's so important to understand, I suppose, I guess, where the the truth is on any property, like where those, as I said, cultural alignments manifest. And that's hard to do, but it's really essential. When you tap into it and you can have people own something, and that doesn't go for just Gen Zs. That could go for, you know, an underserved older audience over the age of 55, let's say, an untapped white space, for example, anywhere.

22:00If you can claim ownership on something, people love that. People want to endorse that. People want to see, that's my movie. I own that movie. I claim that movie. That's a great thing.

22:13Matt Belloni:Well, I don't know if that's going to happen with Disclosure Day, but I hope it does. You know, this Gen X-er wants to see Spielberg do well. I've got fingers and toes crossed, and he's an ambassador to our business, as you know. National treasure. Exactly. Let's just say something very real here, which is we both make a living on this business. And so I love unpacking it with you. I so admire you. I actually listen to so many of your, and I don't listen to very many. I have my own podcast to worry about, but I have to say you have a great facility and like understanding of our business. And I know you want it like I do to do well.

22:54Matt Belloni:All right, but more importantly, what does Gen Z think of me? All right, don't answer that question. Thank you, thank you, Kevin. I love being on your show. And here's to next time. Yeah, good luck with the book. Thanks, buddy. Okay, today's call sheet is brought to you by Holiday Inn at IHG, the global icon you love, but with a whole new energy and comfort that hits different than before. Craig, disclosure day. This is a tough one. You and I saw this movie the other night. We did not go to the premiere in New York. The premiere was in New York. Lucas went. Weirdly, no party. Shame on you, Universal.

23:26Matt Belloni:No party after the Spielberg premiere? Was it the night of the Knicks game? Maybe they wanted to go watch the Knicks. No, but the game was long over. Like, throw a party. It's Steven Spielberg, for Christ's sake. But we digress. The movie is at$37 million tracking, according to NRG. How do you feel about that number? I mean, it's come up a little bit. It was at$33 million, and then it went to$35 million, now$37 million. I've seen some others that have it a little bit higher that could get into the 40s. Obviously, Kevin Getz thinks it will. But let's put the line at$37 million for this one. You and I saw this movie.

24:01Matt Belloni:You liked it a little bit more than I did. Are you over or under?