The Return of the Spec Script—Is There Hope for Original Screenplays in Hollywood?

0:00A wise man once said, in this world, nothing can be certain except death taxes and your boy Johnny Bananas. Welcome to the brand new Death Taxes and Bananas channel, where we'll be recapping season 41 of the challenge every week with all your favorite cast members. I'm going to dive deep into the drama, get every side of every story, and tell stories about behind-the-scenes on-set antics. So follow Death Taxes and Bananas on Spotify, where you can watch every episode or subscribe to YouTube.com at Death Taxes Bananas on YouTube.

0:53I always love you. I want millions. It's my era. Anne Rice's The Vampire List. All new Sundays at 9, exclusively on AMC and AMC+. Stream now. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most.

1:34To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify. It is Wednesday, October 1st. For decades, it's been the dream of wannabe screenwriters. Write your script, somehow get it into the hands of a studio executive in Hollywood. They buy it and turn it into a hit movie. In the business, they're called spec scripts, short for speculative, meaning nobody pays you to write it. You do it on your own and hope someone buys it. Lately, there hasn't been a lot of hope in the spec market, though. Back in the heyday of original movies, studios would buy dozens of scripts every year and develop them in-house, attach actors, directors, all on the path to an eventual green light.

2:12But over the past decade or so, that process has changed for all the reasons we talked about on the show. IP-driven movies are the priority of most studios, and the studios and streamers have gravitated towards fully formed packages. That's where a producer or an agency will gather all the elements of a movie together, star, filmmaker, script, producers, then sell the whole thing fully formed to a buyer. But lately, I've noticed a shift happening. These buyers are kind of moving away from package deals and starting to favor spec scripts without talent attached. Craig, take notice. There may be interest in your Steph Curry biopic after all.

2:47And I'm not alone. Final Draft, the screenwriting software company, they recently noted in a blog post that this summer there were 23 sales of original scripts and pitches to studios and streamers as announced in the trades. The majority were spec scripts, and nine of them happened in August alone. So what's going on here? After years of frustration in the screenplay marketplace and many bemoaning the death of original material in Hollywood, why are major studios and streamers paying screenwriters for their ideas and scripts again? I have theories, but I wanted to have someone on the show who's in the middle of this market and can explain it from the inside.

3:21Jeff Chavis is a literary manager and producer at Entertainment 360, represents writers, directors, producers, people like the co-creator of Landman, writer of an upcoming Edward Berger movie that came from a spec script. He's also a former studio executive, ran production at Lionsgate. So he's got a good perspective and has sold some of these spec projects lately. So today it's the return of the spec screenplay and is there hope for original movies in Hollywood? From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Bellamy and this is The Town.

3:53All right, we are here with Jeff Chavitz, who is a manager at Entertainment 360. Thank you very much for joining the show. Absolutely. I'm thrilled to be here. All right. So this is a topic that I think the seller's side of the industry is very interested in because you always hear what's selling, who's buying, what are they buying? And I want to know, first of all, whether you agree with my premise here, that we are seeing an uptick in spec sales over the past few months. I don't think it's a few months. I think it's 24 months. Oh, wow. So you think it's been going back further. Okay. Well, I mean, I tie it back to a couple of things happened in 2024 that we definitely clocked as big spec sales for us internally.

4:36And when we saw that, we began to encourage all of our writers to start writing original things because it just felt like this was a moment where there may be opportunity. All right. So I want to know why. Let's talk about the reasons for this uptick. Is it just that we've seen some big original movies work over the past year, like with weapons and sinners and barbarian and anyone but you? Like, is that because it's working or is it there's something else going on? I think it's because it's working, number one. And number two, I think specs, people are remembering and being reminded of, they're a pretty good way to put things in development that can move quickly.

5:16For an executive who probably has a couple things on their slate that they've been developing for two years, five years, I put Highlander Development in 2007. It's going this year, back in the day. Oh, that's interesting. Although that is based on IP. For sure. But my point being that when you've got a bunch of stuff that is being developed into the ground, maybe over years and years and years, when a spec walks in the door and it actually feels like a movie, that's very comforting. And you feel like as an executive and having once been one, that you've got something that you can talk about that is actionable today.

5:49That's real nice. Okay. And you think this is replacing the package movement? Like we heard so much in the streaming boom about packages where agents or producers would shop a major package with a star, two stars, filmmaker, producers attached. F1 is a perfect example. F1 was shopped around with Bruckheimer, Kaczynski, Brad Pitt, all attached, major price. And then Apple bought the package. Is the spec market now replacing those big packages? Are the studios frustrated with the results of some of those packages? I certainly wouldn't say they're frustrated. That's not the sense that I get. I think that as you begin to see movies that aren't necessarily gigantic like F1, where they can go to the studios to buy original material, call it anyone but you, that is the spec market.

6:46So the question always becomes, is it worth packaging that material or not? And can you get it to the level where it's going to create a feeding frenzy in the marketplace? Yeah, there's only so much of that, you know, Top Gun director, Brad, like there's only so much of those. And it takes time. These things take a long time to package. And on the flip side, anyone at our company over 24 hours, and I'm doing it right now, we can get it out to 50 producers all at the same time, get a sense for whether or not it's working in the market. And it can go into studios 24 hours later. We've done that again and again and again without packaging and it's been working.

7:21And I have picked up frustration from some of the studios where, Yeah, they like the packages, but there's also limitations. Maybe they don't want Brad Pitt. Maybe they have their own ideas about what would work. And you're sort of handcuffed by the package when they come in the door fully formed like that. And some of these executives do want to do their job and develop these projects internally. F1 is the perfect example of it all working. And at the same time, as exactly as you say, some of them come in the door. and there's a history with a particular part of the package and or they're just not a person that that studio is familiar with, be it a director or even quote-unquote a movie star for one reason or another.

8:05And the decisions have already been made. People can be much more comfortable having more ownership on the studio side when they see something that's just clean. Right. So why did the spec market decline so much? Is it just the rise of IP and that it was coming in the door and it didn't have some kind of pre-branded attachment to it that it was not worth even developing because they knew they weren't going to make it? Why was the market so bad? I think part of it was just the aura of the superhero genre, which is the superhero success for the last 12 years, 15 years. This is my opinion. It really established a benchmark for studios.

8:42We have to go big. We have to go really wide. And the only way to do that is to build out movies that feel gigantic. And they definitely absolutely work. I think that what you're seeing with the slowdown in the interest in the superhero market, what you're feeling is that the audiences are generally interested in different types of material. And I think that there's kind of a flywheel that you're seeing, which is the specs that went away because everyone was trying to make things feel like superhero films. Now that we're no longer doing that, it actually opens up opportunities for writers to write original things.

9:18So the decline of Marvel is really boosting originality, in your view? That is a subjective opinion. But yeah, I think that the reliability of those juggernauts to deliver those movies, those box office results, as you've seen that happen, and more importantly, as you've seen a curiosity from the audience for original material, those two things are combining alongside with studios need movies to fill their pipelines. So if we're not going to make superhero movies and the audiences seem more curious about original material, why shouldn't we be buying more specs? Interesting. I mean, because I would have thought that the superhero stuff is just being replaced by other IP games or like we saw Disney just moved a Marvel title out of a summer slot and put a Simpsons movie there.

10:06Yeah, I think the flip side, though, we didn't have any clients in the originator. You look at a movie, a spec like Love of Your Life, which sold last year, Julia Cox. She sold it for several million dollars. Again, we don't represent the writer. But when you see that and you see that a year later, it's got Rachel Morrison on as a director, Margaret Qualley, Aaron Pierre, and Patrick Schwarzenegger starring, there's a comfort in the idea that that machine actually works sometimes, right? Which is a piece of material is taken out and then a movie miraculously comes out the other side. IP is amazing.

10:40It takes a long time to develop. Yeah, well, and there's a lot of voices often in the development of IP, whether it's Hasbro with a toy or whether it's Marvel with the management of 12 different superhero movies at the same time and they've all got to connect. The IP comes with attachments and strings, is my point. Yeah, and there is an efficiency to a spec going out to the market, which can be amazing. It can also be heartbreaking if no one wants to buy it. But at least you know, as opposed to waiting for your opportunity to go and pitch on a piece of IP that you're hoping to be hired to write.

11:16Yeah. I mean, I don't want to overstate this because we had David Bobert on the show last year around this time, and he did some research, the producer. At the time, he noted that between 2022 and 2026, only one-tenth of the 500-plus movies that were either released or scheduled for release by the major studios and streamers actually came from a studio or streamer's internal development slate. So, were generated by original material. That's one-tenth. Do you see that increasing now? I think it is. I think that there's a curiosity in the marketplace. And by the way, it's being borne out in how many scripts are being bought.

11:56And again, I would point to a handful of movies being made. David is as smart as they come, and the research is absolutely spot on. And at the same time, I think when you go back and you look at how the market is shifting, I would point to those movies. By the way, I'd point to a movie like Materialist. That grossed$100 million this summer. Yeah. And not based on any IP and got to$100 million. I mean, that is a movie that you want on your slate, whether you're A24 or whether or not you're a gigantic studio. Yeah. Sony would have killed for that. Yep. Yeah. And it's funny, I was looking at the Paramount slate for next year.

12:35I mean, they had a lot of chaos with their sale and everything. But they barely have any movies on their slate for next year. They just didn't greenlight movies. And I feel like now with Paramount ramping up, That's another buyer that's out there actually trying to make movies and put them in theaters. Certainly, that team is expressed in the community. We are moving. We're moving fast. We're going to make movies that you haven't necessarily seen before. Don't forget also, you've got A24 making films that are bigger. You've got Neon, who had success with Long Legs last year. They're going to start making bigger movies.

13:07A lot of these are horror. What about comedies? What about, you know, thrillers? Like, is there a specific mandate in the market right now from your perspective? It feels like there was a huge push into the erotic thriller market, at least what we read. Erotic thrillers are back? Oh, yeah. Is this the 80s? We're in the 90s. That was definitely a push. And you could feel the market scooping them up. It does feel like with budget pressure coming on, and also, you know, you're seeing green shoots of successive films like Naked Gun relative to budget. People are pushing into comedy, too. It feels like people want to laugh in the world.

13:45At least that's what we're reading. And the studios are responding. Let's talk about prices. Now, you don't have to attach any prices to any particular sales. But what is the market right now for a high concept, hot commodity script that you take out? Because the fear here is that the studios are just going to load up on low budget and low price scripts. But can you generate those mid six figures, seven figure sales like you once could? I think that you can. I think it's about approaching the marketplace simultaneously. You need everyone to be looking at it at the same time and feeling like there is something special here and they want to step in and bid on it.

14:29Explain how this goes down because I was not familiar with this new software that you can use where everyone gets the script at the same time and it's on a protected iPad or something where it cannot be shared or photographed or anything and it will self-destruct after 10 minutes? If you have a hot property, what is the path to getting a bidding war going? You're referring to a lot of people using something called Embershot, which controls who and how it can read it. Yeah, what is that? Embershot is something that if you really want to control the process of who and how something is being read and quite frankly, keep it confidential, you can send out digital versions of the script that cannot be screenshot.

15:15They basically can only be read on one computer by the person whose email was sent. So you don't have to sit in the office of the executive anymore as they read it. You don't. That's a very particular choice and it can work for the right project. We actually, we encourage people to not use Embershot simply because the great part about 2025 is things get shared. And as much as you can be a proponent for your material with the people you're going out to, once it gets in the water and starts getting shared, where that market turns from interest to people trying to purchase it comes from people sharing it to their friends.

15:49This isn't really right for me, but it might be right for you. And that's where the opportunity is, in my opinion. So you think, unless you're Chris Nolan or PTA or someone, and it's like, you make Donna Langley sit and read Oppenheimer, and it's a yes or a no on my terms, you think it's better to have wider availability for the project? I think that your best case scenario is having strong producers submitting to every studio where they have a strong relationship and having the incentive on their side to get their studio to buy on their behalf. And when that works and you get not just one bid, but two bids, that's where things get interesting.

16:28We've seen seven-figure sales. We saw a multi-seven-figure sale for something in the last year. You can make life-changing money if you do it right.

16:41This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn ads. Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first, but didn't live up to the hype. Marketers know that feeling. They optimize for the numbers that look great impressions, reach and reacts. But when they don't show revenue, well, that's a not so great conversation with the CFO. LinkedIn has a word for that bull spend. Instead, why not invest in what looks good to your CFO? LinkedIn ads generates the highest ROAS of all major ad networks. Reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. You can target by company, industry, job title, and more. So cut the bull spend.

17:18Advertise on LinkedIn, the network that works for you. Spend$250 on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a$250 credit for the next one. Just go to linkedin.com slash the town. That's linkedin.com slash the town. Terms and conditions apply.

18:041-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Streamers versus studios. How is the process different at a Netflix or an Amazon or one of these other kind of less development-friendly places? Or is Netflix becoming more friendly to development? It used to be they'd just buy as many packages as they could to get movies made and on the streamer. Is that changing under Dan Lin? I don't think there's much of a difference between the streamers these days and the normal studios. No, there isn't? They're open to specs at Netflix? I think everyone is open to specs if it's the right spec at the right time. I think that packages were certainly the word of the day around town.

18:45Everyone is looking at spec screenplays because everyone has a different strategy and the spec might be right for one place and not right for another. Okay. So it's not a, this is a studio style or a Netflix style script. So we've got to take it there. No. What we encourage our clients to do is try to think of ideas that can play everywhere. When you have, and we've had it, spec screenplays go out where A24 and Warner Brothers are both bidding on it. Those are two very different studios with very different mandates. If they can both see a version of that movie, their version, in terms of how they would put a director on it and cast, that's where you win, right?

19:22If you make something that is just for one particular place because it has the style of the head of that studio, you're not going to be in a competitive situation. And also, it's probably a less interesting screenplay to begin with. So how do we come up with ideas that play across town? And people don't realize the managers actually play a key role in development as well. I mean, agents are typically there to sell, sell, sell. But you as a literary manager, you are probably working on these scripts with your clients at some point. We do draft after draft after draft. And this is not to say that agents don't do that.

19:58It is one of our focuses as a company. We don't, right? We're obviously not talking to the same agents. Okay. But it is something that we do pretty intensely. The other thing, by the way, is that agencies are also open for the spec business. And it's something that has definitely changed in the last year. Oh, explain that. It doesn't really matter where the spec comes from. It can be internal or it can be external. The specs are being shared across town, either through an intermediary, someone like a manager, and or just by a producer sharing with someone who might be curious at the agency, everyone is really looking at material for the purposes of, can I even package it in real time?

20:35So a lot of stuff does go out without anyone on the project, but they definitely do make their way into agencies as they're out in the market. And sometimes people attach during or mid-sale. Yeah. And I think the agencies are more willing to take out specs now than they were maybe even a year ago. Because it seems like the market has changed and there's more likely going to be a sale. I mean, it felt like the agencies were even reluctant to sell these projects without big talent attached at one point because they just didn't see viability there. Now, it seems that that's changing. I think that agencies, what they do great is they do service their internal clients and that's part of their job.

21:19The balance with that, though, again, I really think is the passage of time, right? which is if you have something that is great, that can go out into the market, and the market can decide a little bit what it is meant to be, that can happen very quickly, particularly for writers who are anxious to get some feedback. You can spend a long time packaging a piece of material, which is not to say you shouldn't do it. But I think that agencies have come to realize that it's actually the speed and the aura, again, of the spec selling that can then motivate clients internally to really take a hard look at something.

21:55So do you recommend to your writer clients to go the spec route or go the package route? It's project dependent. If it's going to require one of the top 15 directors on the planet, guess what? We're packaging the material. We try to get in there earlier than that and really go over the ideas beforehand. My preference is I have a spec that is, to a certain degree, it can be built for any studio. Those are the ones where you can take it out to market. And again, everyone can see their version of the movie in the idea. And don't you worry a little about languishing in so-called development hell at these studios where they're just buying up stuff to have.

22:33And then maybe a year later, they have a meeting with an actor and they say, oh, we have this thing. You don't have much control over the project if it's not packaged and if it's at a studio. I worry about development hell every day. I guess you can write in stuff to the deal where you get it back after a couple of years. You can. And at the same time, depending on the strength of the market for that particular project, you can get even more aggressive and put progress production language in and the rest. It's all hard. And some packages sell and they still don't get made. So the reality is that there's sort of two jobs for us, which is number one, let's get it on the board.

23:12That's piece number one. And these are working writers who, you know, a meaningful spec sale, whether the movie gets made, that is an important part of their life. So are you prepared to declare that original movies are back? Oh, sure. Sure. Why not? From the 23rd floor in Century City. Sure. Well, we are all about accountability on this show. So in a year, if they're not back, we're coming for you. I'll give you my home address? My take is I think that they are back to the extent that studios now see a path to success for some of these original ideas. It's not just the original script or the spec.

23:53It's smart development and putting a meaningful star or catching a star at the right moment into something original that can turn into an anyone but you. It's getting that filmmaker who maybe would have had to take their passion project to Netflix five years ago. Maybe let's make that passion project and let's turn it into sinners. Something like that. Yeah. And I mean, you can quibble with these examples, but to a certain degree, and they're all specific, but look at this year and look at Warner Brothers. They've got sinners, they've got weapons, they've got one battle after another. They're all lofty projects with gigantic elements involved, but none of them are based on IP.

24:36And I think when you talk about the trickle-down effect of those movies working so successfully. Yeah, well, one battle, jury's out on that one, but that's mostly just because it's got such a high budget. But I see what you're saying. It turned into a good movie that will win them some awards. Yeah. And more importantly, those three movies point to there's an interest in the audience and not just things that they have probably seen before or feels familiar. It's fascinating that you're connecting it to the decline of Marvel because I agree. Craig was early on this, by the way. He said Marvel's over two years ago.

25:08And I was skeptical. And I do think that there is a real audience shift going on away from the superhero genre. Not dead, just it's going to be less. I'm never going to bet against Kevin Feige. The numbers do bear out that there has been a decline and maybe we'll come back. For the moment, though, it just feels like audiences, at least to me, there is curiosity about other parts of the movie business, other genres. Jeff, do you find that a lot of these original specs are being sold to streamers over studios that are willing to commit to theatrical releases? Or do you think the theatrical releases are something that studios only want to give to IP still right now?