The Summer Box Office Report Card: Surprise Hits, Big Flops, and Key Takeaways

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0:38Matt Belloni:This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, campaigns slow down, insights get buried, and opportunities get missed. That's why Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales. Using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business. The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify. This episode is brought to you by Netflix, presenting Beef, now nominated for 16 Emmy Awards, including Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series.

1:20Matt Belloni:Esquire raves its hands down the best TV show of the year. From Emmy-nominated creator, writer, and director, Lee Sung Jin, starring Emmy-nominated lead actor Oscar Isaac, lead actress Carey Mulligan, supporting actor Charles Melton, and supporting actress Yoon-ya Jung. IGN hails it a masterpiece. Lee Sung-jin's series remains an untouchable force. Beef, the most nominated limited series of the year. It is Thursday, August 28th. Happy Labor Day weekend, which of course marks the end of the summer movie season. Not a great one for Hollywood. Hits, of course, some pretty meaningful ones. Superman cracked the 600 million line worldwide, which means Warner Brothers can keep making DC movies with this universe of actors.

2:04Matt Belloni:F1 did better than 600, which means that Apple may keep releasing some movies in theaters. Not sure about that yet. But overall, box office is going to stay below 4 billion, and that's down from 2023. Maybe it gets to more than last year. We're still not sure about that internationally. Only one movie got to a billion, Lilo and Stitch. which congrats to Lucas. He's got that one in our box office draft. And a bunch of the hits like Final Destination and Weapons are probably considered doubles rather than home runs. There was certainly no Barbenheimer type phenomenon. If you remember, back in May, we had Scott Mendelsohn on the show.

2:39Matt Belloni:He's the box office guru at Puck, and he has his own sub stack. We went through our summer movie confidence scale. We assigned a number, one through 16, to each movie based on how confident we were that it would hit the target the studio expected out of it. We're all about accountability on this show, so now we're back and we're going to see how we did. Was our confidence or lack of confidence justified? And whose gut was most accurate for this summer? Today is the summer box office reckoning for both Hollywood and Scott and me. From The Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Belony, and this is The Town.

3:15Matt Belloni:All right, we are here with Scott Mendelsohn, box office guru and returning champion on The Town. Welcome back, Scott. Always a pleasure. Thank you for having me. I got to admit, I'm sort of dreading this episode because I've watched one by one these movies come out this summer. And sometimes our confidence was a little misplaced here. And sometimes my lack of confidence was proven wrong here. So we're going to go through one by one these movies that at the beginning of the summer we ranked. Remember, we were forced to rank one through 16 and we could not repeat a number. So everything got a number that reflected our belief that it would perform or not perform to expectations.

4:02Matt Belloni:And we are now going to see how we did. And hopefully I turned out OK, although you are the expert. So you sound devastated to go through this. I am a little because I've seen the numbers and it's not great. Okay. First though, Scott, overall impression of the summer. Yay, nay, may? Meh. Shrug. Shrug. Me too. Kind of boring. Stuff did okay. Stuff didn't perform. Like nothing really interesting to talk about. the issue simplistically speaking with the summer is as usual there weren't enough major movies and wide release and unlike previous summers past there was not one or two super mega smash hits the sort of over the spread of underperforming films and or movies that just did okay and or a lack of overall content right you had hits but you didn't have any super mega Barbenheimer style over performers.

5:01Matt Belloni:Yeah, not even one of those like faith-based movies that all of a sudden this gross 200 million dollars. Like nothing like that. Yeah, which again, you can't depend on those, obviously. Just like you can't depend on a sporadic miracle like, you know, in 2004 you had The Passion of the Christ and Fire 9 9-11 making gajillions of dollars from people that otherwise would have stayed home. Well, and not even like a big indie thing where, you know, we had long legs or something. I mean, yeah, Materialist did fine. It's at like 85 million. And Weapons. Weapons the one. Right, but Weapons is a studio horror movie.

5:33Matt Belloni:So we'll get to Weapons. But yes, a lot of doubles, not a lot of home runs. So let's start here. Final Destination, Bloodlines. You had it at a 15 on the confidence scale. I was a little less confident at 13. $50 million budget. Ended up doing 287 worldwide. Pretty good. It just opened in China last weekend. According to WB, and I can't find anything to refute this, it's the first R-rated supernatural Hollywood horror film to open in China, if not ever, then certainly in a very, very, very, very long time. It did$6 million in its opening weekend, so it should be over under$300 worldwide right now.

6:16Matt Belloni:Oh, okay then. I stand corrected. Who knew the Chinese love hot people getting murdered? When they're offered it, yes. Okay. Okay, so you win that one. Craig, will you keep track of which of us won each movie and then at the end we will tally up? Sure. Okay, so Scott, at a 15, I think this movie exceeded expectations. 287 or 300 worldwide on a$50 million budget. Definitely relaunched the franchise. You were more confident, so you win that one. Lilo and Stitch. I had it at a 15 on the confidence scale. you went all in a 16 and you were rewarded billion worldwide, six, 10 international. That's a pretty good number.

7:04Matt Belloni:This is the only movie this summer to get to a billion. And I will admit, I said this on the first show. I underestimated this movie. I am not a millennial. I did not have the nostalgia for it. And I was proven wrong. Well, not that wrong though. I did say, I did say 15. Yeah. Yeah, well, you did 13 for Final Destination. It's not the end of the world that it did better. But when I... That's true. Stitch, yeah. That's the one cartoon of the post-Katzenberg and, let's say, pre-Princess and the Frog Tangled era that's even as remotely as popular in present-test moviegoers as the Renaissance stuff.

7:40Matt Belloni:Yeah, Stitch, very popular. So, all right, we were both very confident, but you were more confident, and it exceeded expectations, so you get that one. Moving on to Mission Impossible, The final Reckoning. You had it at a three on the confidence scale. I had it as a four. The budget,$400 million for this movie. The overall worldwide,$598 worldwide. So it exceeded the previous one by about, I think, 10 or 20 million, but basically did exactly the same as the first Reckoning, Mission Impossible, and cost$400 million. This movie will not be profitable for Paramount and Skydance. This movie did okay, right?

8:29Yes, but first of all, again, I'm willing to give some leeway to the budget because shot during a pandemic, from what I'm told, they kept everybody on payroll, which is something that is good.

8:39Matt Belloni:Good for them, not so good for the studio. Most of the global downturn from these last two pictures compared to the 2010s installments was because of an overall downturn in China and Russia. So it basically performed like a Mission Impossible sequel. It was leggy as hell in North America, which was, you know, people liked it. And with all the hubbub about dead reckoning taped because it lost IMAX screens, this film was leggy as hell even after it lost IMAX screens. Yeah, and it did have those IMAX screens, though, that the previous one did not because of Barbenheimer. And nothing dropped dead after losing its PLF screens.

9:15And that is a very encouraging thing.

9:18Matt Belloni:All right, so who wins this one? You were less confident than I was. Do I win this one because you say it did okay and I was a little more confident? I'll give this one to you. If I lose by one, then we'll talk. Well, neither of us was that confident. So I'll take the W on that one just because I was a little bit more. And do you think they make another soon? No. And I think in the broad scheme of things, this is still a win because you still get a complete eight-film saga that doesn't end on a giant cliffhanger. so they kind of had to suck it up and finish the movie yeah i disagree i think they will make another one pretty soon i just think skydance now running paramount they're looking for franchises anywhere they can find it they'll take a couple years off cruise will do some other things but i think within five years there will be another mr impossible i think what they should do is strip it down and have it be like a very tight you know hour 45 minutes 20 yeah escape movie or something like that where it's different and it feels kind of like maybe even he's got a partner or something.

10:20Matt Belloni:I don't know if Renner's available, but they got to do something different. But I do think they'll make another one. It's sort of fiscally irresponsible to not. All right. Karate Kid Legends. I had this movie as a one on the confidence scale. I was not confident at all. I did not think this would perform. You had it as an eight. It had a$45 million budget. the worldwide on this movie was$112. Not great. I'm going to take the W on this one, too. Well, I mean, yes and no. Oh, you're going to claim that the Sony wanted$112 million out of this movie? No, but will it make money over the long haul? Oh, forget the long haul.

11:00Matt Belloni:We're talking about this summer. This summer, they wanted$300 million out of this movie. Yes, that's fair. And I liked the movie, but it was also like, what the hell are you doing here? Oh my, you liked it? They didn't, like, Daniel LaRusso wasn't even in it until like an hour and something into it. That's why I liked it. Because it was its own thing. I loved the first hour when it's just the kid training his girlfriend's father how to be, you know, a kickboxer or whatever. Oh, see, I was the total opposite. I was like, I come to Karate Kid, I want to see the goddamn Karate Kid. Where is Daniel LaRusso?

11:33He's elsewhere, but I like this new Karate Kid who is fun and charismatic.

11:38Matt Belloni:Sure, all right. 112, I'm going to take the W. I was not confident and there will not be another karate kid movie for a long time. Nor should there be ballerina. Our girl on into armis. Craig was very excited about this one. I had it as an eight. You had it as a five on the confidence scale. The budget they say was 90 million. I don't know if that includes all the reshoots and putting more in it. It does. Okay. Well, I'm a little skeptical of that overall worldwide, 135 million. not great no i mean again to be fair good reviews good word of mouth people seem to like it yeah what happened here i will argue that they overcompensated and selling the wickedness of it all to the extent that they sort of implicitly argue that there wasn't that much special about the movie itself and as someone that thinks it's a solid three-star programmer i think that was a mistake well they did fire their marketing people after this movie lionsgate got rid of the marketing people.

12:39Matt Belloni:They say it was unrelated. I have my doubts. But yeah, they wanted a lot more out of this. So you get the win on this one. You were less confident than I was. I had an 8, you had a 5, so you are going to take the win on Ballerina. Will they do additional John Wick spinoffs is the question. I don't know how long in development the Donnie Yen picture is. Although, I mean, if they can spend$60 million on a Donnie Yen-directed Donnie Yen action movie, that has value beyond just the John Wick brand, I would argue. Do they do it? I don't know, but it's not the worst. If you want to make John Wick spinoffs, and we can debate whether they should, there are worse wigs.

13:21Matt Belloni:Well, they sort of have to. This is Lionsgate. This is like their biggest franchise, and they killed off the main character in the previous John Wick. So other than bringing him back or having the ghost of Keanu advising other people, what are they going to do? I think this movie struggled because it came out in the summer right around Mission Impossible and it got swallowed up by that. And if this was an April movie, it would have done a lot better. And it feels like a much more successful April movie than it does competing with Jurassic Park and Mission Impossible movies. So Lionsgate got a little over their skis and what they had.

13:54COVID and strikes notwithstanding, this film obviously would have had a little bit more buzz had it come out A, maybe between John Wick 3 and 4, so the continuity wouldn't be all convoluted. and much sooner after Knives Out and No Time to Die when Ana de Armas was, to a certain extent, had her EQ rating. That's totally fair. That's fair.

14:14Matt Belloni:How dare you, Scott? How dare you say anything negative about Ana de Armas? She is the patron saint of the town. Craig, how do you agree with that? You got to defend her. I thought the movie was solid. She got you in the theater. She got you. You attended this movie in the theaters, paid real American money. I went to the premiere alone, actually. Oh, that's right. You did go to the premiere alone. Yes, but yet you were too scared to say hello to her. Which I stand by. Okay. It comes to modern American movie stardom. More often than not, deserves got nothing to do with it. Okay. Well, let's move on.

14:48Matt Belloni:How to Train Your Dragon. Scott was a 13 on this movie. I was a 12. Budget 150. I think it was higher. And worldwide 628. Pretty good. Yes. I would say this was an unmitigated win. The reviews were good. The legs were long. People showed up and they liked what they saw. Well, and Universal has two more of these coming, they say, or at least one is dated. So this was very important because they want to be in the Disney business of remaking the hits. And now they can be. They got a real franchise here. Unlike Pixar and Disney, DreamWorks franchises, for better or worse, are franchises. Most of the hit films have two or three sequels.

15:31And weirdly enough, most DreamWorks animated franchises have a part two that's better than the part one. So if they can get part one and get away with it, then they've got two or three almost automatic hits.

15:44Matt Belloni:Does this mean that we're going to get a Kung Fu Panda live action? That is the great question. Making a Kung Fu Panda live action is very different than making How to Trade Your Dragon live action. Because one is basically a Cuban set Dungeons and Dragons adventure story. And one is like the Lion King, but can we get away with it? Okay, but my point is the dragon is a CG dragon at the center of it, and you could make the panda a CG panda at the center of that movie. But then everyone else is also CG, and that's what's sort of different about it. Well, yeah, I guess you'd have to change that. Like Lilo and Stitch, you have one CG crowd-pleasing element amidst an otherwise human story.

16:24Matt Belloni:That's true. How to Train Your Dragon, huge win for Universal. You were more confident, so you get the W on that one. elio you had it as a six i had it as a two budget 150 to 200 that's a big range they say 150 i think but i think they did a lot of tinkering with this one so probably closer to two domestic was only 72 million on this movie yikes worldwide 152 the lowest grossing pixar movie ever is that right I think Onward was less than that non-COVID impacted yeah non-COVID impacted before 2020 how about that so huge loss here for Disney I was way less confident in this movie than you were so I'm going to take the W I mean what's left to say about Elio they should have kept it in summer 2024 no Iger didn't want this coming out right when he had an activist shareholder up his butt he wanted this to be pushed so he could get rid of the activists and then it would be dumped and he didn't have to worry about it?

17:30I mean, it would have been more successful. You think so? I do. I think the original cut, assuming all the mudslinging...

17:39Matt Belloni:Oh, you're talking about content-wise. You think they washed it of anything controversial? Yes. And whether or not the unedited version would have been more successful, it couldn't have done any worse. And it would have been coming six months after a year after Elemental, which showed that audiences were willing to come back to see a Pixar original. The alternate to that is that it would have been a few months after Wish, which was one of the worst movies Disney's ever made. So I might be wrong, but I do think coming off of Elemental, there was reason to be optimistic that maybe that was the one that was going to reacclimate them to showing up for non-sequel animated films again.

18:21And the fact that they didn't is terrifying.

18:24Matt Belloni:Yeah. So the larger lesson here, do you think Elio was an Elio problem or is it a Pixar problem? It's both. I think in a vacuum, maybe you do good dinosaur numbers, which is still terrible, but you make it back over the long haul and post theatrical. But you don't make back$150 worldwide on a two to two, whatever the actual budget was from DVD sales and Disney Plus streaming. DVD? Who's buying DVDs? Exactly. I think it'll do fine on Disney Plus at the beginning, but these Pixar movies aren't musicals, and the musicals are the ones that keep popping up on the charts. That is correct. That's what Encanto has in common with Demon Slayer.

19:07Everyone's listening to the songs a thousand times.

19:09Matt Belloni:You mean Demon Hunters. Please get your demons straight. Which one's got the Infinity Castle? I don't remember. No, Demon Hunters is the K-pop movie. Demon Slayer is the Japanese movie that's coming out later. Which is going to kick ass in September domestically as it races toward 300 worldwide. All right, well, that is outside our purview here. So I'm going to take the W on Elio. I was way less confident than you were. Let's move on. 28 years later, the sequel 20 years after the previous zombie movie with Danny Boyle back directing. I was confident in this. I had it as a nine. You were less confident.

19:47Matt Belloni:You had it as a seven. The budget was 60 million on this. the worldwide was$150 million worldwide. So not what they wanted out of this. Sony, I think when they bought this, it was a competitive situation. They bought this thinking this could be a summer franchise and could do$200,$300 million. $150, I think is a disappointment. And I think the problem is Hollywood sort of tricks themselves into thinking these vaguely recognizable IPs are worthy of a competitive bidding war and quality notwithstanding, they're not. Well, Sony didn't have anything else for this summer, so they kind of needed this.

20:26Matt Belloni:And once Spider-Verse got delayed, they needed something that they could plug into the summer. So, you know, I think they'd probably do this deal again. It's not going to be a big money loser for them, but certainly not the juggernaut. And they got another one of these coming in, what, six months? Once again, Nia Dacosta is being set up to take the hit for another film-slash-franchise's underperformance. She did Candyman and she did a Marvel movie, right? Although Candyman was good. Candyman was profitable. That made money. Okay. But which one of the Marvels? Did she do the Marvels? The Marvels.

20:59Matt Belloni:Oh, okay. Well, hopefully she'll have better luck here. But you actually predicted, you said 28 years later will open bigger than Elio, which turned out to be true. It was a$30 million opening and Elio only got to$20 million. I'll take it. Let's move on to Megan 2.0. Oof, we both took a hit here. I was confident. I said this was an 11. I thought this would work. You were a little less confident at 10. The budget was anywhere from 15 to 25. I think Blum said on the show that it was 20, if I remember correctly. Worldwide, 39 million. Yikes. I mean, to be fair, other than the Purge franchise, Blumhouse sequels generally don't over-index compared to the first ones.

21:45Matt Belloni:But the first one did 180 worldwide. I mean, there's underperforming, and then there's, like, falling off a cliff. Yes. She did the Toons is the Driving Cat off the cliff here, and this is a quarter of what the first one did. This is an overestimation of the marquee character. You can argue that switching up genres did more harm than good. That seems to be what Blum thinks. He thinks that they were too confident. They thought Megan could do anything. She was a superhero. She was funny. and they got away from what made the original work, which was that ultimately it was a horror movie. I think if they had made a film that was basically Demolition Man, Terminator 2, but with Megan, but made that movie, I think it would have been fine.

22:29But they really didn't give you that level of Megan in her Megan outfit versus the evil robot beating the crap out of each other. I mean, they don't give you the Demolition Man payoff.

22:41Matt Belloni:All right, so I was more confident than you. We both kind of take a loss on this one, but you were less confident. So you take the W. I was pretty confident. We were both confident. I know neither of us should get a win on this one, but somebody has to, and you were less confident. So you get it. And I think it's scary for Blumhouse because they are not the brand name that they were in the mid to late 2010s. Yeah, but they're still doing a lot of movies. So I think they can get it back. They got Five Nights at Freddy's too. Hopefully that will be a little bit better executed. That will be probably so profitable.