War Update: Israel’s True Motives, Potential False Flags, and Oncoming Global Crisis

29:28Israel should make the Gaza Strip a parking lot by this time next week. Destroy the whole thing. What they ought to do is evacuate up there on the hill and get a great big missile and blow that wicked dome of the rock plumb off of the spot where it's standing right now so we can get that third temple rebuilt and usher in the coming of Jesus.

29:59Boy, it is embarrassing and shameful as an American Christian to hear that and to know that video is from a few years ago. It's been on the internet. No one bothered to highlight it.

30:09Tucker Carlson:Most people weren't even aware this was going on. Oh, it's definitely going on. These are very common views. Seems obvious that Mike Huckabee has them, that a lot of the Christian Zionists, John Hagee, do you think just like Israel? They just like Israel a lot. No. These are clerics, so their lives were informed by their religious views. What are their religious views? Well, you just heard it right there from Pastor Locke, who's quite a prominent Christian Zionist. He's not some lone wacko. And there he is with an Israeli flag waving behind him, casual calls for genocidal violence. Just blow it up, make it a parking lot.

30:45Tucker Carlson:Well, two million people live there. What happens to them? They're terrorist sympathizers. That right there is the tale. This is not Christianity. Imagine Jesus saying, just kill them all. They're terrorists. Is there anything in the gospel that suggests Jesus believed that? No, there's a lot to suggest, in fact, to tell us in very clear terms. He thought the opposite, of course. But the last part, let's build the third temple and bring about the return of Jesus, is a direct contradiction of core Christian theology. And even people without theology degrees who didn't go to some eminent Bible college can tell you, what?

31:24Tucker Carlson:Jesus says, I am the temple. That is not Christianity. It's not even a close facsimile of Christianity. It's clearly evil, and it is in some sense the driving force behind the efforts to rebuild the third temple. Julian the apostate, who was the last guy to try it, who died invading Iran, he's not a he's not jewish he was a pagan just like pastor lock but for some reason he was the instrument of trying to do this there are many of these people and not just in the theological realm in the political realm and that's relevant to you whether you believe in god or not or interested in the history of the Abrahamic faiths or not.

32:13Tucker Carlson:Global leaders believe this. People you wouldn't expect, and you wonder, what is going on here? It's enough to make the hair in your arms go up. Did everyone know there was an effort to rebuild the third temple and the foundation stone except me? I can't believe I was left out of this conversation. No, all of this took place in public. And if we'd been paying attention or been tuned into that frequency, the spiritual frequency we've been spiritually sensitive enough to pay attention we would have known this but of course when you grow up in a materialist culture when the only things you believe are real are the things that can be measured or purchased on amazon you tend to miss a lot and we miss this here's the president of argentina javier mille who we know personally at the western wall, which is believed by some to be a remnant of the second temple, the last stone from the second temple, that's the claim.

33:12Tucker Carlson:Here he is there, the famous wailing wall, saying this. Watch the subtitles.

33:22There is a prophecy about the destruction that says that a fox will break into the holiest of holies. There is another prophecy that says that the same place will be rebuilt.

33:44Now that I see with my own eyes the first prophecy come true,

33:53I laugh in joy and full of hope as the second prophecy will surely come true. So a correction, that doesn't appear to be the Western Wall and there were no subtitles. You heard him say it through his translator. I laugh and quiver with joy when I think about the Third Temple being rebuilt. Now, this is the supposedly, maybe, who knows, Catholic president of an overwhelmingly Catholic country, South American country, wonderful country, Argentina, who got elected and was presented to American news consumers as a libertarian economist

34:31Tucker Carlson:who was going to fix their debt problem and get rid of inflation and just make life better for Argentines. and there he is in Jerusalem saying that he's weeping with joy, thinking about the return, the rebuilding of the third temple. What the hell is that? You would think that would not even be on his to-do list. If you're running a country as complex and damaged as Argentina and as promising and great as Argentina, but there's a lot of things you've got to do in Argentina if you're running it, but you take time to fly to Israel and say the thing you really want in life is the rebuilding of the third temple?

35:07Tucker Carlson:what is going on here and why haven't we talked about this before say before we invaded iran with troops who say out loud we're doing this to bring about the creation of the third temple why weren't the rest of us informed now here's a piece of tape you may have seen and that i personally don't want to play since i know the guy and i like him but it does make you wonder so this is the current secretary of where Pete Hegseth, former Fox News employee, nice man, very nice man, 2018 in Jerusalem, and as someone who knew him well, I can tell you I had no idea that he had such evolved and specific and apparently very informed opinions on rebuilding the Third Temple of all questions.

35:58Tucker Carlson:This is not something they teach you in Sunday school in the Presbyterian Church. This is not something that people talk about at dinner in the United States. This is not something our Congress ever mentions that the president ever talks about. This is considered so esoteric and weird and crypto historical and religious and kind of culty and what's a bot and that no one ever mentions it. But here's Pete Hegseth, football player from Princeton, going on about it in a way that suggests he's thought a lot about it. This is 2018. Today, Jennifer and I had a chance to go see the western wall of the Temple Mount, the western wall tunnels, so much of the old city.

36:39And as you stand there, you can't help but behold the miracle before you. And it got me thinking about another miracle that I hope all of you don't see too far away. because 1917 was a miracle, 1948 was a miracle, 1967 was a miracle, 2017, the declaration of Jerusalem at the Capitol was a miracle, and there's no reason why the miracle of the reestablishment of the temple on the Temple Mount is not possible.

37:15I don't know how it would happen. You don't know how it would happen. but I know that it could happen.

37:24Tucker Carlson:What is that? That's the secretary of war right now, overseeing the war with Iran, that people fighting it are starting to say, actually is about rebuilding this third temple. It's the same man. Okay, this is the point where you begin to think, maybe we should have talked about this and its implications. And what are its implications? Religious war, global religious war. So the first heavily publicized move by the United States military and the Israeli military in this conflict was to kill the head of state of Iran, the 86-year-old Ayatollah Khomeini, who was replaced today by his son, who's apparently more anti-Western than he was.

38:16Tucker Carlson:So I guess, strictly speaking, that wasn't very effective. But if you take three steps back, and no one did because everyone's busy denouncing him as Hitler and the most evil man in the world, and we're so grateful he's dead. What was the last time the United States military or the Israeli working in conjunction with the Israeli military killed the head of a world religion? Is that wise? It's not because we agree with all world religions. It's not an endorsement of Shia Islam to say maybe we should pause before killing its 86-year-old leader. It is instead an acknowledgment that that might have consequences that affect the United States and Europe and the world, but particularly the United States since we are the United States and we have children and hope to have grandchildren.

39:03Tucker Carlson:And what will be the downstream effects for them when you kill a religious leader? Did killing the religious leader cripple their command and control structure? Were they unable to launch missiles and drones when we killed the 86-year-old Ayatollah? No, because he knew he was going to be killed. That's why he stayed above ground, apparently. He wanted to be martyred. Now, why would he want to be martyred? Maybe because he wanted a religious war. Why did we kill him? Maybe because we wanted a religious war. Now, why would we want that? Why would the Israelis, who got us into this war, everyone admits that now, sorry, why would they want that?

39:43Tucker Carlson:I don't know. Think about what would happen if this war leads to the destruction of the Dome on the Rock and the Al-Aqsa complex on Mount Moriah in Jerusalem. And we'll explain in a second how that could happen. A war that began with the killing of the head of Shia Islam. what would happen? Well, here are the numbers. There are about 15.5 million Jews in the world total. There are about 2.5 billion Christians, and there are about 2 billion Muslims. So whatever happens next is not going to be a fight between the Muslims and the Jews, because 2 billion versus 15 million, not much of a fight. This is likely to be, if not brought under control immediately, or maybe it's too late, a war, a religious war, the one that Lindsey Graham just described between Muslims and Christians.

40:44Tucker Carlson:And it's not going to play out in the Middle East because this is a regional conflict, but as noted at the beginning, it's a global conflict where every big power has a stake in what happens. This will play out globally, and it'll play out in our cities. Islam is the fastest growing religion in the United States. There are not that many Muslims in the United States, what, 5 million or something like that? But it's the fastest growing religion. That's enough to cause problems for sure in Europe. 65 million Muslims, second biggest religion in every European country, fastest growing in every country.

41:21Tucker Carlson:Australia, same thing, second biggest, fastest growing. New Zealand, same thing, second biggest, fastest growing. Canada, same thing. What happens in all those countries, those Christian Western white countries? What happens there? If there's the religious war that Lindsey Graham and clearly the Israeli government and some in our government are hoping for, what happens? Those countries suffer more than they have suffered. And so it's possible that the real target here, it's just possible, is throwing this out out there is not the mullahs in iran it's us as it always has been but don't take our word for it here's a particularly candid and honestly kind of articulate clip from a couple of years ago this is from august of 2024 from an israeli rabbi joseph misrock describing how israel should take advantage of a then ongoing conflict with iran much less intense in the current conflict we're seeing with iran to destroy the dome of the rock and al-aqsa watch this if it was up to me the last time when they shot hundreds of missiles i would pretend that one missile came from iran and shoot it down you know then all the arabs will go against iran it will be the end of the problems you make them fight with each other this bunch of lunatics never too late you deal with a bunch of cowards shoot it down into the dome of the rock in al-achsa destroy what's on what the israelis call the temple mount on the foundation stone destroy it and blame the iranians and that has the effect as you just heard him say of turning our enemies against each other turning our enemies against to each other.

43:22Tucker Carlson:Although they've refused to recognize it for quite some time, the Europeans are the enemies, the mortal enemies of the Israelis. That's the Israeli perspective, obviously. Look at the effects. And so if that were to happen in this conflict, it's not the Israelis who would bear the brunt of it. It's the Europeans, it's the Canadians, it's the Australians and it's us and it's the Russians 20 % of Russia is Muslim all of those countries would be in for serious turmoil and bloodshed and maybe already this shortly into the war turn them against each other you heard the rabbi say now how could this play out?

44:06Tucker Carlson:very simple Iran is sending drones and missiles into Israel right now mostly into tel aviv is it beyond imagination that in the fog of war maybe one of those missiles hits the dome of the rock or we're told that it did and of course during war the first thing you see is censorship so it's very hard to know what's going you're already seeing it today is there less or more video available on the internet today than there was yesterday from this world well there's much less of course that's called censorship they're censoring video of what's actually happening. It happens in every conflict. Every war sets off the same cycle at home, far from the fighting.

44:51Tucker Carlson:Censorship and persecution. Censorship and persecution. Persecution of the enemies, real or perceived, or the people prosecuting the war. And censorship of their views. So in that environment, when you can't really know what's going on, it's thousands of miles from here. All of a sudden, the Al-Aqsa complex is just vaporized. Oops, the Iranians did it. then we have this debate it's like a hospital bombing in gaza who did it well it was a booster from a hamas rocket well how do i know i wasn't there all we know is it's gone oh so sorry could that happen oh yeah it could happen the army is fighting with patches of the third temple on their arms on their official uniforms and what happens then global religious war talk about high stakes you thought nukes were high stakes at least nukes are over quickly there are survivors a generational religious war?

45:46Tucker Carlson:That's worse than any virus and more deadly. That could happen. Do the people in charge know it could happen? Some of them do. They don't seem worried about it. They should be. We should all be worried about it. We should all be noisy about it. No, you can't do that to the world. We hope to give to our grandchildren. Hey, it's your brag, but we're pretty confident this show is the most vehemently pro-dog podcast you're ever going to see. We can take or leave some people, but dogs are non-negotiable. They are the best. They really are our best friends. And so for that reason, we're thrilled to have a new partner called Dutch Pet.

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48:34Tucker Carlson:so what is going on uh in this war it's again hard to know because of the censorship but there is a man an independent analyst called brandon weikert who we think after spending a lot of time looking at analysis from a bunch of different people is one of the most informed people in the united states who can speak freely and publicly about what is actually happening and not just in a conceptual, big-picture way, but in a detailed way, and coming at this with an understanding of the technology in use, the tactics, and the strategies. We've been super impressed, and we think you will be too. With that, Brandon Weikert joins us now.

49:11Tucker Carlson:Brandon, thank you so much for coming on. Thank you for having me, and thank you for those kind words. That was very—I'm very honored. Well, it's true. We've never met, but I've just been watching your stuff recently, and wars tend to bring out phonies, and people are like, oh, I was on SEAL Team 27, and I know what's going— and they don't know anything. But your analysis has been... I'm just a nerd. I'm just a nerd. Well, I have been very impressed by your grasp of what's happening. So can you just give us really quickly the overview of where we are today? What are the big developments? Well, the big developments, as you saw with Secretary of War, I guess he's calling himself now, Hegseth is they're transitioning the munitions.

49:50So now the claim is that it's been so successful, this air war, They don't need to use what's known as standoff weapons. So think the Tomahawk cruise missile. And they're going to now shift, the Air Force and the Israeli Air Force are going to shift now to flying large sorties of warplanes into Iran and bombing targets with what are known as gravity bombs. And these are things like the Joint Directed Attack Munitions, JDAMs. They require you to be close to the target. So the risk factor to our pilots is now increasing exponentially. But I would just like to posit a theory, and it's just a theory.

50:30I actually think the real reason we are doing this shift is not because of realities or facts on the ground that are amenable to the U.S. and Israeli strategic position. I think we are being dictated to by the depletion of our stockpiles. And what I mean by that, I have some numbers for your audience. We all know the Tomahawk cruise missile going back to the Clinton era where he would just pop those things off, you know, as soon as Lewinsky impeachment got underway. 4 ,000 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles are believed to be in the arsenal. We have been draining those since 2022, 2023 in Ukraine at a disproportionate rate.

51:13In the last four days of this conflict, we have expended 400 of those systems, which means that's 100 per day with the operational and tempo not ceasing. In 2026, the budget request was only for 59 new missiles. We need several hundreds every year. The reason we're getting such low numbers, Tucker, is because our defense industrial base is broken and we have no business starting a world war or a major regional war as we are in the process of doing. So I believe the real reason the U.S. and Israeli militaries are starting to get more daring and dangerous with their airstrikes is because they cannot afford to blow through the munitions that are already depleting.

52:01and it is in fact a race to depletion between us and Iran. And right now, I think the Iranians still have a very sizable, unused, increasingly sophisticated missile arsenal. Colonel Rob Maness is a friend of mine. He's a former Air Force colonel. He disagrees with me. He says, look, these missiles that are being popped off by Iran are basically a bunch of dead enders. It's going to fizzle out. And Hegseth made a sort of argument about that today, that there was a decrease. But I actually think that those dead enders, if that's what you want to call them, actually are probably still combat effective.

52:37And that is why we are now having to still continue the war, even though we have blown through these standoff munitions, which really were protecting our people. In fact, I got word from a source of mine who's monitoring this on open source, which it looks like the USS Abraham Lincoln is going to be repositioned to within anti-ship ballistic missile range of iran so either the u.s really believes we've degraded the iranian capabilities sufficiently or we're just throwing caution to the wind because we got to get this thing over before we run out of materials and that'll probably start happening this weekend this is not a surprise to people who watched carefully the few days in the run-up to this conflict where there were uniformed service i mean there were flag officers who apparently made this case.

53:29That's right, by Samer Kacher. Yes. Exactly. We just don't have the munitions to sustain any kind of real conflict.

53:35Tucker Carlson:They said that, right? Yeah. In fact, it is my understanding, and this is, again, take from this what you will. It is my understanding that last Friday, the order went out at 3.38 p.m. Eastern. Before that, there was a, quote, particularly contentious meeting between General Dan Raisin Cain, who is Trump's handpicked chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He was pulled out of retirement by Trump. So this is Trump's guy. And Cain tried to get to the word to the president that this thing is not going to go like you think it is. This is not Venezuela. This is a very different operation. And the president, for whatever reason, still decided to ignore the best military advice he got and went forward with this.

54:19In turn, Vice Admiral Fred Kotcher, who was an adjutant basically to Kane, leaked parts of that meeting to, I think it was Reuters. Now, the question that I've been hearing from people is, was that Kotcher acting on his own volition? Or was that, in fact, Kotcher executing some kind of informal order from Dan Kane? because the rest of the military, the high level, is very worried about the blowback from this operation. And it is my contention that the permanent bureaucracy is desperately trying to push blame away from itself to the politicians, and even as we're seeing Marco Rubio now, to Israel itself, which is not how a winning war would look like.

55:06There'd be no blame shifting. So, do you have any insight into how the decision was made to kill Iran's head of state slash chief cleric? And this has not been a conversation anyone's been willing to have because, of course, the proponents of it have been screaming about how he's Hitler, he's the worst person. If there's any question about whether it's a good idea to kill him, you're an Ayatollah lover, you know, just the normal low IQ crap that you see on Fox News. But it's a real question. Like, what was the thinking there? Do you know? So, again, this is all, you know, background and sort of piecing the puzzle together with what I know about how it works up in that horrible city we call D.C.

55:49But basically what it sounds like is the administration used the idea of diplomatic talks to lull Kamani into a false sense of security. we were going into a holy week at that time and the iranians wanted or kamani wanted to basically come out of his hole and uh he thought okay we're gonna get a reprieve we'll we'll kick this down the road until monday which i think was march 2nd they got the word on friday that hey we're open to negotiating so kamani and his cadre let their guard down and at the moment they did israeli missiles were fired at a very interesting it was actually if i can nerd out here for a second the Israelis did a very interesting performance with their missile where they fired it into space from, I believe, F-16s or F-35s.

56:39It went into the space above Iran and came down at hypersonic velocities, and it came within millimeters of the known position of Khemani. So from a tactical standpoint, yes, it was very technically impressive. But the key thing here was that the U.S. used its honor to lull the counterparty into a false sense of security using our diplomatic word that, hey, we're going to hold off and try to talk to you. And I actually think, and I say this as somebody who's a fan of Steve Witkoff, I actually think Witkoff and probably Kushner were probably in on the whole thing to basically lull the Iranian leader into a false sense of security so we could clip him.

57:24And I think, Tucker, I think the assumption was that if we lopped off the head of the regime, Kamani, that the whole thing would implode like a house of cards in about 72 hours, which is why I think Trump didn't really care when Dan Cain was warning him last Friday that, hey, we've got eight days of munitions and CENTCOM before we have to start cannibalizing Indo-PACOM. and then we have a real crisis on our hands. I think Trump was thinking, we can probably do this at about 24 to 72 hours. We'll get Kamani, the Israelis will, and then it'll all work out. It's all going to work out. And obviously, nobody took the time to brief the president on, and I could have done, I wrote a whole book about it, on basically what the Iranians have been doing for pretty much 47 years to harden their regime and to make it relatively survivable.

58:15And that is why now we find ourselves, what is it, day four or day five now? And they're already having to panic and change the munition structure because we're depleting them too fast. This is why, by the way, the heads of those defense companies are now being summoned to the White House because Trump is going to try to read those leaders, the riot act saying, you got to boost production. And they're going to say to him, sorry, we can't do it because the defense industrial base is both broken and corrupt. I don't know the truth about what you said about the diplomacy as a cover for action lulling community into vulnerability.

58:54I have heard just the opposite, that the Israelis are telling everybody that the U.S. knew the strike was going to happen, and they're doing that to shake the faith of any of our partners in the region in our diplomacy and make us sound decisive. That would, well, obviously, like I said, take from this because this is all, you know, I don't have evidence of this to present to you. I don't either. But I find it, just if I can speculate here for a moment, I find it impossible or improbable to think, given the level of fusion between the U.S. and Israeli command and, I mean, for goodness sakes, there are Israeli officers permanently stationed in the Pentagon.

59:34And I was just told by a former CIA case officer at Langley. So basically, I find it really hard to believe that the administration did not have any involvement in this. Now, they want to say that they didn't. And I think they are saying this because they're worried that there's going to be significant political and possibly legal blowback over time because this war is anyway. But so I don't believe that particular story when they say, oh, we had nothing to do with it. I think we probably did not have an active role in the sense of bombardment, but I do believe that we were aware of what was going to happen, and I think we probably nudged it along.

1:00:12If that's true, that's one of the craziest things that's ever happened. I mean, we're trying to negotiate an end to the war we've been waging against Russia, which is right at the— Are we?

1:00:21Tucker Carlson:Yeah, well, exactly. And the Russians aren't stupid. The Iranians aren't stupid. Not everyone other than us is stupid, which is our assumption. They're all a bunch of savages. They're all Pashtuns living in the Hindu Kush. But they're not, actually. They're really smart. And they look at this like, why would we enter into negotiations with the same negotiating team that just did this? So, okay, but here's my macro question, which is, what about the safety of the United States? Like, when you kill an 86-year-old leader of a global religion, which Islam is, it's the smaller but still enormous branch of Islam, you're going to expect to create religious extremism.

1:01:00Tucker Carlson:You kill the religious leader during Ramadan? Like, was there no one in the room? And I know you're not supposed to say this because it makes you like a Muslim lover or something. I just want to say this as a Jesus person, but as an American who wants peace in my own country, nobody stood up and said like, hey, what are we doing here? Like, we're going to create a generational war that our grandkids are going to have to deal with at the shopping mall. Did anyone say that? No. No. I think General Cain was the closest and he was making sort of a tactical, technical argument. And I have to say, as much as I do like the general and I do like him, I think he's a decent guy.

1:01:38I think he's gone down in my book a little bit because he didn't resign in protest because whatever they're saying in public, the logistics, it's like math. It doesn't lie. It's gravity. It doesn't lie. And the logistics are not in our favor if this becomes, Trump said it was a forever war yesterday. Now, he's putting in sneer quotes. But, you know, this could become at least a five to eight week war. Hegseth said eight weeks today. And so I'm starting to remember COVID and two weeks to flatten the curve became, you know, years of, you know, dealing with fallout. So I am I am very concerned that the president has really bad advisers.

1:02:21These are not people that I think have the best interests of MAGA or America First, the coalition that got him elected in their hearts. I think these are deep staters masquerading as MAGA lovers. And I think that this is why we're here. This is one of the most strategically irresponsible moves I've ever seen. And the fact that the president, I don't believe, was informed the truth about what was going to happen in the way it was going to happen. I think now that's why you're seeing the administration expanding the war, talking about giving Kurds weapons and money and we're going to now expand it into Iraq and destabilize Iraq as if that's another thing we need on our plate.

1:03:07This to me is somebody who this to me is is a country that has made a very serious mistake with triggering this war. And now they're just making the mess bigger and bigger and bigger, hoping that they can clean it up once it's totally, you know, out of hand. Or maybe they don't even want to clean it up. I don't know. That's speculation. But I do believe that we were involved on some level with what was going on behind the scenes the day that. And by the way, I just want to make something clear. I am very much anti-Islamic Republic of Iran, that regime, all of that. I'm on the record. People know this about me.

1:03:38So I'm not saying this because I'm mourning the loss of Kamani, but it is very dangerous what we're doing. And I think that we really damaged America's credibility for a long time, for a long time when it comes to diplomacy. The gold industry bankrolls a lot of conservative media. Much of the gold IRA business is not actually about selling gold at all. It's about selling massively marked up coins to people who trust the voices delivering the pitch. Why is gold a hedge? I've decided to partner with the top-rated precious metals company. The companies have the exclusive control. They can manipulate the price of the coins at any time.

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1:04:55That whole like call your patriotism. Some guy working for Israel is calling me unpatriotic in a country. Right. Ancestors founded. I don't think I'm not going to play along with that at all. And it's shocking that they would even be throwing that out there at the most patriotic in the world. I bet you have. So let me, I mean, you look at this and it's so heartbreaking and it's so potentially catastrophic that you keep thinking, all right, point made, can we pull back? Can we just pull back and declare victory and go home in the famous phrase? Are we at a place where that's possible? Well, I'm reminded of a 2004 interview that Donald Trump gave to your old colleague, Neil Cavuto.

1:05:34And it was during the Iraq War at the height of the insurgency. And at the time, everybody made fun of Trump, but I thought it was brilliant. Trump told George W. Bush on that interview, he said, listen, just declare victory. Bring everybody home. We got Saddam. You've won. Let's just call it a day and let the Middle East figure out the mess. Now, people mocked him at the time, but I actually thought, actually, that's probably the best at that time way out. Well, he could do the same thing right now. Because get this, he got rid of Kamani. He got rid of very top, bad IRGC guys. He can claim that.

1:06:08He has done what he can to help the people. There is a way forward. It's a golden off-ramp, but he's got to take it in the next probably 48 hours. Because if he doesn't take it, Tucker, this thing takes on a life of its own. The Iranians are not going to surrender. They're not going to stop popping off missiles. They have planned for this, like I said, for 47 years. Yeah, they're degraded. Yeah, they're hurt. But so are our allies, by the way. And the oil coming out of the region is not coming out of the region. We are now looking at spikes in the price of energy. um i saw a report from seeking alpha which is an investment uh publication saying that but if this continues for four to eight weeks this could take oil over 200 a barrel that's recession territory going into a midterm election yeah so i think 200 is depression is i mean well who knows right but now that's the extreme yeah that's the extreme but i mean yeah listen listen they're destroying not they're not just blockading the strait they're destroying the refineries in Qatar in Saudi Arabia and the Qataris are saying they're not going to get this stuff online for months if not years so that's going to be a gaping hole in the global economy for oil and natural gas so even if Trump gets a quote victory here in Iran and I don't even know what victory looks like anymore we're gonna to be cleaning up this mess economically for many, many years thereafter.

1:07:35All of that is awful. All of it is manageable. They don't call me Dr. Doom for nothing. All of it is manageable, though. You can imagine working through those problems and convincing yourself that it was worth it somehow, or you could concoct a story to tell yourself. There are certain things that are not possible to recover from, and one is the use of unconventional you know highly destructive weapons that just changed the calculation forever and i worry about that and everyone i ask that's oh no no that would never happen do you worry about it yeah yeah yeah so and i think i tweeted about this in the last 24 hours trump trump responded to what i've been writing um and i i'm not going to get into how i know that but but he he somebody told him what i've been writing and he's quite cross with me and uh you know i'm a i'm a three-time supporter of trump i'm saying this out of love you know not out of hate um but i was told that the statement he made yesterday in the oval office was partly was responding to my claims about the stockpiles and he said something very specific he said not only we have enough weapons to fight a quote forever war which holy cow um but uh he said that we you know we're depleted a little bit on the and And I'm paraphrasing on the lower level weapons.

1:08:55But we've got we've got enough higher end and middle tier weapons to fight forever. Well, the higher end weapons would be things like, I don't know, low yield nuclear weapons. And, you know, you don't want to think that an American president would go there, especially over something like this, where we weren't attacked, which we were not. And I'm not a fan of the Iranian regime and they do support terror. But we were not attacked. The Israelis weren't even attacked. This was all sort of the machinations of Netanyahu's worst fears. And it is my concern that if we truly are reaching depletion, that we might have an incident where a nuke is used.

1:09:38And, you know, it's not the likeliest, but it's no longer impossible. It's now moved into sort of the realm of it could happen. And the longer this goes on and the more that we run through these stockpiles and if we start losing planes to some of the remaining Iranian air defense systems, then we're going to have some problems. And I want to also say something about the strategic side. I was on Bannon's show earlier today and one of the guests was basically saying I was wrong. And maybe I am. But, you know, who knows? but he was saying that we've got local air superiority and from there we'll be able to grow out and go farther and the only reason you get local air superiority is because you've degraded the enemy so much well yes and no but that's just a small slice of a very large country they probably in Iran if they've decentralized those missile capabilities to the local commander level anticipating that we would degrade command and control they likely have hidden and decentralized their air defense capabilities.

1:10:44And that means we have to do sort of a long-term air defense hunt. And in the meanwhile, the Iranians are still combat effective. And the longer this lasts, the longer that strait is closed down, the more the oil is disrupted. And basically, the more we get to these really nightmare scenarios. In my book, I said, a war over Iran will likely trigger a World War III. Now, that book came out in 2022. too. I remain convinced that we are at the opening salvo of a true world war, and it's happening because of our actions and the actions of our partner, Israel. I would say even more precisely, it's happening because of Benjamin Netanyahu and the hammerlock he has over the American government, including Mossad officers at CIA headquarters and IDF yeah that one came the pentagon i mean that one came from a you you would know this individual he's a very famous cia guy i got off the phone with him about an hour before i came on with you and and uh it's scary it's i mean remember though gary vogler who wrote a great book uh for the libertarian institute it was called i think israel was the winner of the 2003 iraq war something like that he was an oil guy working for the coalition provisional authority and he identified this guy named Makovsky, who was a Pentagon bureaucrat who ran the Iraq War desk for the first part of the Iraq War in 03, and he was a Mossad officer, not just IDF, and he was Doug Feith's son-in-law.

1:12:15So, you know, this is, you know, our country is unfortunately not being run entirely by the United States and the American people. No, it doesn't, you don't see a lot of sovereignty. I'll get emails for that one, I'm sure. Well, it's true. It's factually true. The Secretary of State, God bless him, admitted that two days ago and said, we did this because Israel made us do it. They were going to go anyway. So what about the question of hypersonic weapons? You read that Iran has them, they've been given them? Oh yeah. Oh yeah, they've got them. In fact, I got an interesting report from overseas yesterday.

1:12:47And again, these are sort of, I take with a grain of salt, but they've been right. And when they're right though, they're really right. This one came from our friends in Russia. So take from this what you will but the the report that i received was a retired russian general is telling the press over there that he knows for a fact there is a cluster of chinese um high-tech officers or technical officers on the ground in iran right now uh perfecting and maintaining iran's growing they're still building them uh growing hypersonic weapons capability and the reason is because the chinese want to test these systems because they're basically very similar to the Chinese ASBM, which of course, when and if, and I really hope it's if, the war with China erupts, the first thing the Chinese are going to do after they knock out our satellites and disrupt our electromagnetic frequencies is they're going to use thousands of ASBMs ringed in those man-made islands to either keep our carriers at bay so that we can't launch planes in range or to sink or destroy the carrier's flight deck.

1:13:54And the Iranians are the, Iran rather is the testbed, the same way that we've been using Ukraine as a testbed against Russian tech. And so the Iranians have them. They're buried in those underground missile cities. They have not really fired them. I believe they fired four ballistic missiles at the carrier after Kamani was killed. That was a symbolic attack though if the iranians really wanted to go ham on the carrier with a missile swarm they absolutely could the only thing that would be preventing them was if we had degraded their c2 functions enough and i at that time i don't believe we had what's a c2 function i'm sorry that's command and control so basically their ability to control their systems uh and issue commands.

1:14:40That's why before the war began, the Iranians, basically the government said to their local field commanders, we're going to give you permission to take command of your individual missile batteries so that if something like killing Kamani happens, you can just start going and you won't have to call in for orders or for range. And by the way, the Chinese are using their Yaogon, I think it's their Yaogon satellite constellation to do surveillance of the carrier and of the U.S. air bases in the region, and they are providing increasingly accurate targeting sets to the Iranians. In fact, I believe the reason the Iranian missiles have been so effective in damaging our bases, and boy, have they done a doozy.

1:15:22It is not being reported accurately. They have done a real doozy to these bases. It's because of the fact that the Chinese are providing direct real-time signals intelligence and electronic assistance to the Iranians. So we're fighting a proxy war with China right now. It's a world war. I mean, this is a world war. And the Chinese are more than happy to see us stew. Now, there's this story that the politicians keep telling us. It's really the Republican side that keeps saying this that, well, you know, we went after Venezuela and we went after Iran. And that's going to really kill China because they rely on these countries for their oil.

1:16:02It's not really accurate. it. The Chinese got less than, I think, 4 % of their oil from Venezuela. It was a nuisance, if anything, to lose. If anything, they were sinking more money into rebuilding the refining capacity because the communists had ruined the oil industry in Venezuela over 25 years. And then with Iran, they get at most, I think, 14 % of their oil and natural gas from Iran. What they were doing is the Chinese knew, because they could read the room, they knew we were going in. So what they started doing was shifting their purchases of oil from Iran to places like neighboring Russia and to other Middle Eastern countries.

1:16:44In fact, I think that the largest amount of oil purchased by China in Saudi Arabia occurred two weeks before the war began. So while this will hurt the Chinese, absolutely, economically, it's not going to trigger a collapse. It's not going to, the Chinese were prepared for this just as the Russians were prepared for what we were going to throw at them in 2022. These regimes have been studying us for years, for years, and they know our pressure points. And, you know, we're like the gentle giant. We're like the lovable giant. We were just too stupid to realize, you know, these, these people are serious and they're killers, they're killers.

1:17:23And, you know, we're trying to lecture the world about, you know, transgendered rights in Namibia. And, you know, these guys are playing hardball and they're playing for keeps. And I was actually speaking to Brendan O 'Reilly, who's probably one of the foremost China scholars, real world intelligence type scholar practitioner. He wrote a great book called Everybody is Everyone is Wrong About China. And I just talked to him this afternoon and he tells me he's convinced that at the end of the day, the real winner of this conflict is China. Of course. That we are going, yeah. And I think actually this conflict, worst case scenario, because you laid out a pretty bleak scenario too, but worst case scenario is this is the end of American military power for a generation.

1:18:05I mean, I think that's clearly the goal. And that's up to us at this point. I mean, the second you, it's the same in a fist fight, the second you punch someone, everybody standing around finds out how tough you actually are. would you say would you say but the second the blows start it's like we know and you don't always want to reveal that it's better no it's better to keep it mysterious i would say same with nudity like you know none of us look better naked um so but i would okay so the hypersonic weapons missiles which yeah they possess um yeah you suggest they might be deployed against surface craft right yes what about israel would any of them wind up so yeah yeah Yeah, yeah.

1:18:48So you've got you've got two classes of hypersonics. I apologize. I was fixated on the carrier because I got that text. But yeah, so you've got the you've got the maritime targeting of surface warships. But then you also have what you've seen a couple of times in the last year where the Iranians did deploy hypersonics against Israel. And it did an incredible amount of damage to Tel Aviv, if I remember correctly, in the 12 day war. And I think, although this might have been AI, I think in the last 48 hours, they deployed another, the Iranians did another hypersonic against Tel Aviv that did a lot of damage.

1:19:25So these hypersonic weapons, there is no active defense against them. Our air defense systems cannot, and the problem is, it's really what makes them very interesting, is they come in fast, and then they sort of zigzag unpredictably right before they land. And this is the problem for our AD systems, our air defense systems, because they sort of just track and then go. But if you've got a target coming in and then they, you know, those AD systems are not because the AD systems are older and they're based on older generation being able to track incoming regular ballistic missiles. uh so this is where we get real concerned because we i don't think we really know how many hypersonic weapons they've got i would imagine they've got at least i would say at least 100 or so because they've been just churning them out and the chinese have been helping them and of course the chinese have overmatched with us in terms of industrial mass production what is the damage right now to Israel and to enter US bases in the Gulf do you think oh well well the the the bases in the Gulf you know I wish I had kept the window open that I was reading but basically at least three of the bases have been devastated the fifth fleet headquarters I am told and if you look at the satellite imagery that you can find on open source information it looks like actually the base in Bahrain looks like Gaza it's completely moonscape so the the American Fifth Fleet.

1:20:55Now, I don't believe I don't know if there's any because I think we might have evacuated that base before this started. So I don't I don't want to say there's casualties because I don't know. But just looking at those satellite images that it looks like that's been flattened. And that's a very expensive base that you and I paid for. And that was the sort of the hub for the U.S. Navy in the Middle East for many years. and it has been completely taken offline. And I have serious doubt. I was talking also to a Middle East expert not long ago, and he was saying that with these bases being obliterated, basically to use a term, essentially he doesn't think, because he thinks the Arabs are going to be so irate with us for having kicked over this hornet's nest, because it is not going to end anytime soon.

1:21:42His belief is that once the war does end or settles down enough for us to say, hey, we're good, we're done, the Arabs are going to say, you're not building back in our countries anymore. So why would they? We didn't defend them. I mean, this is a reciprocal relationship. They're not doing this because they love us. They give us deals on billions, hundreds of billions in foreign investment in the United States, all this. But in exchange, we promised to protect them and we didn't. That's right. And in fact, there's reports and I think they're credible. In fact, the Saudi official was complaining about this two days ago.

1:22:16Basically, whatever air defense systems were in these Arab countries were sent over to Israel. Yeah. And they actually left our own bases and people vulnerable. Our own government did to protect Israeli targets rather than to protect our men and women in uniform. Do you believe that's true? Do you believe the U.S. government prioritized Israel over our own troops? If you had asked me this a year or two ago, I would have said no way. But after seeing that Huckabee interview, by the way, bravo. uh after seeing that huckabee interview uh i can't imagine how we didn't do that i mean it is very clear the united states is being led around the nose right now uh by its by what should be its proxy i mean let's get it real i mean of course it should be you know so they're the housekeeper we're the homeowner like what is this i don't i don't get it no i'm serious i don't understand i agree i agree so so i do believe yeah we probably did and the worst part here one of the worst parts is uh i have a colleague who's who's in the gulf states and he tells me he sent me a picture uh of the the warning he got from the state department to get out and to cut to cut to the chase it basically said you're on your own to get out like we're not doing flights we're not true and meanwhile i i hear that until 24 hours ago the british government was evacuating their people no questions asked so you mean to tell me that the sole superpower is picking a fight with this missile city that is iran and we're not even going to provide exfiltration for our people that's not an empire that's not a superpower that's a power in decline that's what the chinese see by the way and the chinese think their time is at hand because we are committing national suicide with this insanity i i wish i could uh disagree it's one of the saddest things i've i wish i didn't have to say these things in my life no i totally totally agree and you think of the men whose lives are going to be taken, Americans, who are like the best people.

1:24:07Already have been. Already have been. And you look at, I think the DOD's only released the hometowns of four of them, I think. But it's like Iowa, a couple from, and it's like the best people we have. These are our people. No private equity kids in that group, I noticed. That's right. That's right. And I just want to just say something, and I probably shouldn't, but I was, as I said, a very early supporter of Hegseth as Secretary of Defense. I thought his takes on hypersonics were good. I thought that he was a warfighter, so he understood in a way that maybe you and I could never understand. But I was mortified by his press conference this morning, the glibness.

1:24:45Six Americans are dead because of a political decision that was made. Obviously, I don't expect him to challenge the president on this publicly. But at the very least, it's a solemn day. And we should probably not be acting like this is just another walk in the park because this is not. This is not. This is not going to plan. Now, hopefully we can pull it out of the fire, whatever that looks like. But right now, this is not going the way we were told it was going to go. And certainly not the way the president assumed it would go once Kamani was whacked. So the question, I think, is do we commit ground troops, Americans on the ground?

1:25:21They already are. Okay, so explain what you know, if you don't mind. so it's just again i don't have any but just for the record because i know i'm gonna i have no access to classified information right i am an open source guy um but i can read a freaking room and i can tell you right now if the president went into this air war thinking i'm going to be over in three or four days i don't have to worry about the stockpiles and now he's waking up and going holy cow everything's running out and i got to keep fighting he's talking about now opening up a front in iraq using the kurds which is lunacy what are the turks going to do um well by the way the point is because israel's next priority is turkey so the point is to diminish turkey that's the truest yeah yeah and um yeah and so there's that and then there's the fact that the president wants to be seen as quote-unquote winning and winning means you've got he's already outline what the objectives are.

1:26:18And this was also a big bugaboo of mine. War and strategy is about objectives, attainable political objectives. Clausewitz, war is an extension of politics through other means. Trump came out on Saturday. He's repeated it since. The aims are regime change. The aims are denuclearization and the aims are getting rid of the ballistic missile system. He's now added on getting rid of the Navy of Iran. So those four objectives, What is the objective of the Iranian regime? Survive. That's all they have to do. Survive long enough because they know, because the Chinese and Russians are giving them the intel, they know that our stockpiles are about to be depleted.

1:26:56So all they have to do is hold out until we have to start cannibalizing Indo-PACOM. And there's going to be a real political fight at that point. I'm told that Indo-PACOM leaders are already raising quite a stink behind the scenes because they know once those systems are gone out of their arsenal, they ain't coming back anytime soon. So the question of ground troops, this gets us to that. I don't believe it would ever be an invasion like Iraq in 03. First of all, we don't have that capability anymore, which should scare every American because we don't have that capability anymore. Second of all, the way the country is arrayed, Trump is trying to do this in like a light footprint methodology.

1:27:33So he, I think, is going to replicate the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan in 2001, where we sent a bunch of special forces A-teams and CIA paramilitaries, infiltrated the country, linked up with already organized locals. It was the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. This time, it'll probably be the Mujahideen-i-Kalk, M-E-K, to try to basically organize a movement with the Kurds coming in probably from the Iraqi side in the, I think it's the north, I think it's the south and it will kind of link up in whatever's left of tehran that's the plan i think using air power as an interdiction like we did exactly like we did against the taliban in 2001.

1:28:20well first of all the the mek is not the northern alliance at its height it's not right second of all you're talking about far greater ground that's going to have to be covered and a logistics tale that is going i mean we're talking like this is not going to work then you're going to have to deal with the rugged terrain of Iran. Iran is basically like Switzerland. It's just surrounded by mountains. It's a desert in the middle. I mean, this is not good geography for the kind of tactics we're talking about. And again, the size matters. This is a much bigger country than Afghanistan with many more people.

1:28:57So we're talking about a much longer end commitment on our part. And I think the president knows this. And I think he's sort of like the frog boiling the water, boiling in the water. He's just sort of slowly getting us used to the idea before he has to send troops in because he wants to, quote, win. Well, winning for him is regime change. The regime is not going to change on its own. It's not going to be the people who can do it because they're not organized enough. They're too divided amongst each other. So he's going to need to send in special forces and CIA to basically do the organizing on the ground and to do force multipliers.

1:29:31And I'm sorry to say that the likelihood of this working is very, very low. And now we're talking about being seen in this region as strategically defeated by what we were told was a backward military force in Iran. The first American to die in the war in Afghanistan was a CIA officer, Johnny Michael Spann. Yes, right. That's right. Yeah. So these forces, the CIA paramilitaries, special forces, would be deployed to do what? The goal is what here? Well, it's exactly what, well, again, the goal that we are told and that Trump continues to say is regime change, regime change. We don't want the Islamic Republic of Iran in charge anymore.

1:30:16We want, I don't know, M.E.K. or the Shah's son, who's a lobbyist in Northern Virginia. I'm sure he'll do great. Or, you know, any of these other groups. The thing is, we don't really know. And I think it's very interesting that - Wait, can I just ask you a question? So is the problem, I mean, I do detect, I don't detect, I notice, it's very obvious, efforts by Israel and its proxies in the United States to foment a religious conflict in our country. Hate all the Muslims, deport the Muslims, as if that's better than saying hate all the Jews. It's not better. It's the same thing. But they're trying to turn religions against each other in our country and i that's right i see the same and which i resent more than anything i've seen in a long time because it's it's not going to make a peaceful country for my children no but i see that in this effort so the idea is like they're not allowed to have an islamic country or something like half our allies are islamic countries like

1:31:13Tucker Carlson:what what kind of country are we calling for it's their country no clarify i was just using the official name of the, I don't know if this, I'm sure for some people it is, but they just want to replace it with anyone other than the current crop of leaders. And I believe that that is not possible because this regime is deeply embedded. So, you know, we killed Kamani and a dozen new leaders replaced all of these other leaders. This reminded me a lot of the early days of the Ukraine war when the Ukrainians and the NATO types would be, oh, we killed this Russian commander, we got this guy. Well, within 24 to 48 hours, the leadership was replaced and the Russians kept going.

1:31:55So this is, you know, who knew a nation of 96 million people would find other generals and people to promote, you know, you know, you know, it's like, well, also you wonder like how much if you really believe that killing an 86 year old cleric is going to topple the government, how much do you know about the country and how much of what you think you know well that's my point is filtered through some cia source who wants to be president like the former king exactly like do we know a lot about iran i don't sense that we do well i know a lot about iran but you know i was boxed out of the administration almost from the beginning so it's like why and people like um i think well i think there's some personnel in the white house that doesn't like me and I think that they don't like that I don't play ball.

1:32:42And, you know, I moved, I got out of D.C., moved to Florida, and I never looked back. But there are people like me as well who were boxed out who know a lot about these things and we are not talking. Can I ask you who, if you can say who, because you're clearly very knowledgeable, you seem sensible, you seem pro-American. I'm going to tell you offline. Who boxed you out? I'll tell you offline. I really don't, I'm really not looking to start a mixture rating. I understand. So, but let me text you a broader question which is and i know the answer but i won't hear you say it was there from the very beginning of this second trump term an effort to exclude anybody who might conceivably stand in the way of an iran invasion yes yes even though i again again understand i i hate the regime you know i don't like that regime i'm just not like i'm some lover of you know but i i wasn't i was a friend of mine joked i wasn't sufficiently on board with this program with this iran invasion program iran war yeah because i think it's this is the stuff of of lunacy and this is literally this is like the mad king you know this is this this doesn't make any this doesn't make any sense yeah it doesn't unless you know what you were saying in your monologue which i think you're probably right i think that's definitely at play here yeah i mean i i just want to be clear i don't I don't think that most U.S.

1:33:59policymakers have any idea what the foundation stone is, or Al-Aqsa, or Dome of the Rock, or the Third Temple. This is just so far from the concerns of average people in this country, even policymakers. Their minders are not paying them to know. Their minders are not paying them to know. Well, that's it. But there are people who do know, and certainly in the region, in the Middle East, and the rest of the world, people are religious. They're not Americans. Like, they care. So these are big questions to people around the world, just not— Well, I care. I'm a Christian. Well, I care, too, actually.

1:34:27So let me ask you, since you said that you're constructing most of your analyses through open source materials, you're reading publicly available things on the Internet. Have you noticed an effort to clamp down on videos? Okay. Tell us what you've noticed. there's also an interesting effort tucker to and i think this is coming from our guys to spread ai videos of what look like war scenes and then you share it and then they say ah that's ai we got to get him dinged now we got to get him d you know this is all you know we have it is a um tucker it is a sad day in this country when we have official and i and i have a feeling i know the group that's doing it.

1:35:12We have official U.S. intelligence people being paid with our tax dollars to sit around a basement in Langley or Arlington, Virginia, and harass American citizens online for sharing their opinion. But that is where we are at in this country. That is where we are at. And I can tell you right now, I have been the victim of bot attacks. I've been the victim of cyber attacks in the last 24 hours on my personal email, which I didn't know people had, but apparently they do um we have been i had to file a police report in fact yesterday with my local police uh on this ever since coming out in the last week and sharing my my opinion um and this is not an organic phenomenon this is either ours or israel or the british uh you know because they're always in there somehow or the french that's right or the french that's right that's right so this is you know this is where we are this isn't really america anymore this is some censorious state um and i thought that we were going to be cleaning that up but we're instead we're instead giving the keys to these guys and telling them to go start world war three i wonder if we're gonna see this is purely speculative but wars tend to create an environment where there's actual persecution of critics of the war well i was told and again take from this what you will because i i have no way of proving it i was told two years ago that the biden regime had concocted a list of high profile maga supporters that they were going to basically go to and say if kamala had won uh say that hey you you got to leave the country as you know you can't get out or we're going to basically prosecute you until you're broken lawfare and uh thank god that never happened but those lists are still around and you know in 35 months we have an election coming up and if this keeps going the way it is uh tucker i don't think the republicans stand a chance to to win the next election if things keep going the way they are last i don't care jd or if it's marco i yeah well this i unfortunately agree with you last question so put and i hope you'll come back because i think this has been anytime you need me i live near you thank you so here's my question i saw video maybe ai of the governor of california today Gavin Newsom saying point blank Israel led us into this war Israel leads us around by the nose Israel's genocide in Gaza and we can't we're not getting anything out of this and we need to reassess our military support for Israel and yeah that's probably your next president right there well eggs and I don't I know him and I wouldn't credit a single oh he says with sincerity he doesn't believe anything but he's smart and I know that Donald Trump thinks he's formidable he has said that in public a lot i mean if that's real then i mean that guy has a shot do you think yeah yeah i think i wouldn't be surprised look this can all be i just want to make it clear this can be reversed in the next 48 hours if trump thank you his victory thank you and just gets out and says look i got everybody we needed to get if the people of iran can't do it then they're never going to do it you know this is this is it's it's an easy out it's a golden off-ramp mr president it's a golden off-ramp with your name on it take it and you'll be a can israel will israel allow that i you know i i don't i probably they'll they will probably try something but um you know i all i can't dictate what's going to israel's going to do all i can say is the president has got to make it clear he's getting out now we've achieved our objectives we're done that's what he needs to do um in terms of uh in terms of newsom um you know i don't i He will probably be the nominee because he is wily enough.

1:38:59He kind of reminds me of Bill Clinton a little bit in a weird way. Oh, yeah. But I wouldn't be surprised if his Veep is, in my old state where I used to live, Virginia, is Abigail Spanberger. Because the CIA wants to have one of their own sitting in the White House. Man, that's not democracy. That's really, really dark. I hope you're wrong. No, it's a deep state, man. And we were supposed to dismantle it. Brandon Weikert, that was great. And thank you so much for doing this. Thank you so much for having me. Great to meet you. Thanks. And thank you for joining us. We'll be back next Wednesday. Thanks for watching the Wednesday edition of the show.

1:39:36We stream live every week, Wednesday, 6 p.m. Eastern on TuckerCarlson.com. Members can watch the show live, join the members only chat, and take part in the conversation in real time. We're grateful to be doing it and grateful that you watch it. Thank you.