20VC: Box's Aaron Levie on Predictions for the Next Wave of AI: Will Foundation Models Be Commoditised | How the Business Model of SaaS Changes Forever | Startups vs Incumbents: Who Wins | App vs Infrastructure Layer: Where is the Value?

25:39That is not going to happen exactly like that, but that would be the one disruptive of angle that we could see with some of these incumbent categories. It's funny when you said about the incumbent categories adding on those features and kind of having an extension with the distribution benefits that they have already. The one that everyone's shitting themselves about and start up while there's, well, open AI, I'll just do it. And you're fair enough, played, so it's a warranted worry. And just how do you think about, you know, Sam said on the show? Yeah, I do. Well, deem role. So there were some great memes from that interview.

26:10Well, everybody should think Sam for the clarity and transparency of their model. It's actually very good when basically the lead platform player tells you the types of things they're going to go after versus the ecosystem, people should be paying close attention to that and really understanding what that advice means. When you look at their releases last week, you're looking at language learning tutors and going, fuck, did you or Linga have a business anymore? and does language learning actually have an independent category if OpenAI is able to provide such quality? I think there's a heuristic here that that probably works, which is no matter what, I think we agree that OpenAI is kind of telling us what they are going to become, which is ChattuBT is going to be this universal assistant interaction interface.

26:56All the subsequent tools to manage that and interact with different AIs that kind of come together there. And then they're an API business that will be, you know, you can almost just very quickly easily understand. It's going to be audio, video, text, like it's going to do all the formats of information with, you know, kind of complete intelligence on them. So then you're sitting around, you're like, what startup should I go build? You probably don't want to do things that instantly could be subsumed by a horizontal chat interface. And you probably don't want to do things in the model area that might just be one training running will run away on their end of being subsumed by a more superior model.

27:33This is sort of like to me, it's the most exciting part of software. To 80 % of people, it sounds like the most boring part of software, but it's like you have to do the workflows that eventually a human who wants to go and run a full business process has to implement that doesn't want to just do back and forth chatting with a thing. To even to your tutor point, you know, language learning, I don't think chat to BT itself is going to be coming language tutor. I think it'll have the full capability to be a language tutor at the model level and could you prompt it to being a language tutor. Seems plausible, but hard to imagine it follows a multi -year journey with you exactly in the way that Duolingo would maybe do.

28:11But what should Duolingo do? It's probably as quickly as possible adopt whatever open AI is building from a model standpoint and make sure that they are incorporating that into their product. Because what I do tend to see happen way too often is that incumbents will hold on to their own technology way longer than they should because there's some perceived, I have to own something that in practice, the moment that whatever you thought you had to own is inferior to what the rest of the market has access to. You need to drop the inferior thing as quickly as possible and adopt whatever is superior.

28:40Even if it means potentially supporting what you think emotionally is your long -term competitor. What do you think the streets response to that would be if some of the largest public companies to say drop the inferiority problem and set up, fuck it. We're going to adopt open AI's instead because they're models of that. Probably people would like it if Duolingo announced tomorrow that GBD40 is powering their translation engine. That would actually be a positive because it would just be like, oh, this is this very powerful AI that now your user base has access to. And we understand that you're selling a different flavor value proposition than what open AI horizontally is going to sell.

29:18So we think that could be better for your business. But I have no idea. I mean, this is like, it's impossible to give dual and go advice on this on the top. But all I would say is I've seen some people bury their head in the sand being like, no, my custom train model is so good at this one thing. And we don't want to give open AI this particular data or we're going to compete over time with them. It's like, you can wish all of that to be true. But if what they have is better for the product that you're trying to deliver to customers, that is the only way that you're going to survive this. That's I think what a lot of incumbents tend to run into, which is the classic innovator's dilemma challenge that you see.

29:52You've spoken before about the need for just unwavering commitment and speed and working hard on that though because there's a short period of time where winners will be made. That's kind of easy if you're a startup and there's three people in the proverbial garage. It's quite hard when you're a large company like Box and it's like, oh no, no, no, hundreds of people, thousands of people. This is the time again, back to work, proper, proper work, not nine to five. It's how do you galvanize a team to know this is a sprint go? The tweet I sent was not for anybody else other than boxing employees So for us were 2700 or so employees were still enough though that we can literally get on a zoom call And our all hands is like everybody in the company on one call and then we talked through this tragedy What we have to do I think we're in a moment where anybody reading the news in tech understands the kind of period that we're in I don't necessarily know that everybody understands what's on the line.

30:47If your company doesn't make it to the other end of this bridge before everything kind of breaks off, you know, you're out of business in this new world. So that's probably the only alarm that needs to be, you know, kind of set. What's the biggest thing that you've lost with scale? Some people lose speed, some people lose creativity, some people lose innovation. If you were to say, no, I probably lost that. What was something that you lost at scale that you most want to get back? There is a premium when you're a bigger company, which is when you make a decision It needs to be a well thought out decision that you're just gonna press a button and we're gonna go execute and you're gonna Interate and you're gonna learn lots of things because of the work it takes to drive that alignment But it means when you do that you don't want to follow up a week or two weeks later Be like ah just kidding like we got to do this thing when you're a 20 person company You're just getting a room and you're like okay, here's what I think we should do it looks like this It should be priced like this.

31:35Let's go build it let's test it or whatever. And then the whole company is sort of like fully lined up to go do that thing. You find out that it sucks, and you just quickly pivot. And everybody was on the same page that, no, no, we were just, this was just clearly a hypothesis. We don't really know for a fact what's gonna happen. We can just pivot through this. In a big company, that team still exists. But the problem is you have everybody else watching that team saying, please tell us when the thing is exactly the thing, and we're gonna go off and kind of race. You have to kind of find exactly the right moment where you're ready to now expose the working thing to everybody else.

32:09If it's too late, then everybody's going to be like, well, Bozo's what were you doing? And if it's too early, then you're going to have thousands of people go through the sort of like, oh, that didn't work or like, hey, that didn't land. Finding that balance is kind of an interesting thing for anybody on the more product development, sort of side of these kind of companies. I think of Gemini actually as the first round of Gemini, all the massive mistakes that it made. It's probably some version of this manifestation, which is like if it was a 20 person startup They would have put out there everybody would have known okay This didn't this kind of sucks at these things.

32:40Let's go improve it But at a company the scale of Google like there's some team working on it They kind of throw it over the fence and then everybody's like oh my god. What is this thing? It's just because you had a separation of the people working on the whole thing from then the ultimate people that needed to like You know flag the alarm and by then it was too late and and just chaos do you think you go smashed it last week? I do. I think last week, to me, the thing that I think it underscores, that I think, honestly, Cloud Next did as well, is like, you know, Sundar has set a message to the company that AI is the number one most important priority of all things.

33:14It's like 10 times higher than every other level of everything else you're working on. It's going to be like the new way to search. It's going to be the new products in Cloud. It's going to be in workspace. And I think that message, it was very important. It is now very clearly the evidence of it working is now showing up. And I think Google I .O. is merely the another moment of it manifesting that that company has religion now on AI. Would you be a buyer or a seller of Google? I don't buy or sell anything, so I'm generally long Google in an AI era. Are you worried about AI regulation? I said in Europe, we favor a very regulated environment.

33:48We've made our business kind of constraining our residents and then taxing the shit out of anyone who wants access to them and that's been cool to business this model in this continent, as you know. It's cool that they haven't kicked you out for your views on this. I mean, also just for, you know, it's 10, 30 here and I'm working. So I mean, it's like, I literally had a reference school before this and they're like, dude, are you European? And I'm like, yeah, I know. Are you nervous about regulation, preventing progression in AI? I'm increasingly less nervous only because of what we've actually seen these bills sort of come up with.

34:22They don't seem as sort of progress halting as maybe what would have been rumored about a year ago. The scariest moment to me was the Pause AI kind of moment, which was, okay, we need to stop the development of Advanced AI for six months until we kind of figure something out. It was like, guys, like, it's been, let's say, a decade of us all as a community talking about AI. If you think that in an extra six months is all it takes for us to have some kind of alignment on what is the Doomsday AI going to look like, what is sort of dangerous AI, what is less dangerous AI, six months is not going to solve this.

34:55There are very fundamentally different philosophies in the land of AI that are irreconcilable. They will never fit together. It's okay. It's great to have actually a dynamic set of perspectives. They will not be able to ever be fully unified. And so I thought that that was going to really kind of gum up the advancements if, you know, governments started looking at Pauzei and they're like, oh, even the tech community wants us to stop this thing. And that was what I was kind of most nervous about in that period. Since then, if I look at what has legs, what progress has been made, it's often more surgical AI regs.

35:27So, okay, we have to deal with copyrights and data training. We have to deal with IP protection. I think those are important conversations, actually. I think that our IP law did not anticipate a world of AI in the way that we have today. And I think it's a good conversation that is important to solve. There's another conversation of what is the national security issues with super intelligent AI at some point, in the future, how do we want to make sure to protect against that and regulate that? And I sort of like that this is an open conversation that we should be advancing. I, you know, the show has been successful because I specialize in dumb questions.

36:01From the way that you described agents, it was like the next generation of RPA. What happens to prior RPA providers? Does the ZY pass just adopt an agent -based model and actually move away from kind of wrote learning? But what happens? Yeah, I mean, actually, I think being an incumbent RPA vendor is actually a great spot, Because if you already are talking to customers about literally automating business processes and workflows, and there's just a better way to do that, and there's nothing in conflict with their business model. In fact, if anything, actually, they probably were the first to have more of a consumption -oriented model for automation.

36:35So I think you could be very bullish on RPA vendors right now. I do think it means that more players get in and around the space. The thing that will 100 % guaranteed happen, like in five years or now, this will be the most obvious thing of all time. But when you look at like RPA you had to be you know a relatively deep expert in in RPA You had to be like a mid -size or large enterprise or kind of developer oriented, you know kind of individual The total size of the market was basically arbitrarily or artificially held back by just the complexity of the legacy approach So if AI makes a 10 times cheaper faster and easier to automate workflows then it stands the reason that the market will be substantially larger, could be 100 times larger at the end of this whole journey.

37:20So what will happen is the market will get much larger, traditional RPA vendors if they execute should take a good portion of that market, and there's going to be a new set of entrants that will bring automation and intelligence to their platforms that take out parts of the new market that emerges. That's obviously what we're focused on, which is, hey, what about all the parts of the business that you never automated before. If you go to most companies and you say show me where your digital assets are, all your marketing materials, they're going to be like, okay, it's in all these folders inside of my hard drive.

37:49And well, what if you could just go in and ask a question of like show me all of the red dresses and just like instantly came up? Well, that is what you'll now be able to do with AI. What if you go to your contract repository and instead of it being just a bunch of folders with contracts in them, you just say, hey, what contracts are up for renewal next month with this particular clause in it? And instantly you now know So what areas of risk does your business have? So these are things that you just could not have done before that AI now lets us do on top of all of our data. Do you think there's a hard end -to -price consumer behavior shift that they have to go through in order to fundamentally change how they work?

38:23I mean, probably the long pull of all of AI right now is not going to be the technical breakthroughs. It's going to be the implementation and change management on the human side. So I actually tweeted that AI services companies are going to make more revenue than any foundation model providers and then Accenture posted 2 .4 billion in revenue and opening I posted 2 billion in revenue. So how do you think about that? Did you agree with me? Do you literally mean the Accenture type services? I do actually, I mean implementation and education. Services are almost the leading indicator to compute because you need services to implement the thing that then eventually is sort of on autopilot.

39:01So I think I would take the bet on AI services for the next five years unquestionably. the amount of dollars that will go into the change management of systems, the implementation of the technology is going to continue to be massive. On the other hand, the other thing that goes along with that though is a bunch of the AI stack. So the actual GPUs, the data center build out, that as well. At some point though the curve, if AI is as meaningful as I believe it is, and I think so much of tech believes it is, at some point, the actual AI, the software services of AI, the infrastructure services of AI, will eventually exceed the human services on the implementation.

39:39Simply because now once it's in production, you don't need that same change management 10 years later. Like it's just literally running. Like the amount of money we spend today on our cloud infrastructure, vastly exceeds the amount of money we spend maintaining our cloud infrastructure. Versus five years ago when we were first moving more into the cloud, our services were higher than our infrastructure spent. Is that anything that you think we don't spend enough time talking about? Well, there's not enough light shown on in the AI discussion, and that we haven't discussed today. To me, there's just interesting downstream kind of consequences if everything plays out as it should on paper.

40:14So I have asked everybody the idea of what SaaS did was it made it. So I have a friend who has, he sells balloons online. It's actually not a bad business. It's like it makes real money. And he sells balloons online. And I don't think he would have started the business if Shopify didn't exist. The existence of Shopify made it so he could like be like, oh, well, I had this like random idea Let's just say it works It lowered the barrier to then going out and and basically starting a business And I know that Toby has thousands or tens of thousands of these types of stories So if Shopify caused businesses to get started because it lowered the barrier to being able to sell online if AWS Caused applications to get started because I was like, oh, I could just build an app and run it in the cloud I don't have to think about servers anymore.

41:00If Stripe caused businesses to get started, so I don't think about payments anymore, then in a land of AI agents, you can almost similarly be like, well, somebody literally one day could just be like, well, maybe I should start this idea because I've lowered the barrier to, again, getting customers or supporting customers or testing the software. I now have AI labor that can let me now scale my startup idea or whatever. And I think there's an interesting global democratization that could happen where you could be a company based in a place that did not have this type of talent for a business being started.

41:34I don't know which country I should pick on as a made up, you know, kind of country as this problem. But like if you're two or three people in name your random country, does that country have like the SDR sort of infrastructure that got built out in parts of Europe or the US because of the SaaS boom? Probably not. But like now, I go and I can and just like literally like higher in a outbound sales rep, you know, with AI. So think about what is that gonna mean in terms of where companies could create it, how much you can scale up. I think we'll just see a boom in all new ideas begin to emerge. The one thing I really worry about is slightly on the tangent, but when you have anything kind of generous of AI, essentially supply just becomes unlimited, it could be that outbound sales rep and they can send a million messages a day or we could have a podcast logo cover up or podcast themselves, fuck, people don't know this, before our intros, it's not my voice sound because we have thousands and thousands of hours of my channel.

42:28And so my point being though is that value appreciation going to go to zero when suddenly you get a thousand emails a day from outbound sales reps that are all AI. Yeah, I think you will always see this a standard powerlock dynamic. I think if we were having this conversation, imagine having this conversation 20 years ago exactly and being like, wait a second, if the iPhone lets you have any software and Amazon lets you build any software. Aren't we just going to see tens of millions of apps? How will anybody even know what to find or discover? And I don't know, the world magically just kind of figures out this stuff.

43:04Like the things that don't work die off. People don't pay for the outbound emails anymore. The things that do work take off. Creative destruction is an incredible thing that's alive well in the world. Final one. We've talked about regulations. We've talked about model quality. You've tweeted before about the job displacement concern. If that was one thing that did worry you, what would that be? I think we have ways of defending this, but like, you can, it doesn't take like that much imagination to be like, ah, we know one of those like robot dogs with like a gun and a multimodal AI like, wow, wouldn't want that thing running around.

43:35So, I think there are real reasons we should sort of pay attention to some of the more dangerous use cases of AI. I just think we have, in many cases, sufficient legal frameworks for addressing those things. and then for any net new one that we come up with, let's actually have regulation to go and support that. But what I'm less worried about at the moment is probably the more fringe extreme things of the AI sort of self -replicates, jumps over, outside of the data center to another data center, and then self -propegates. And I'm less nervous that that is sort of on the docket of events. So I wanna do a quick file with you.

44:12I love this. I just essentially, I say a statement, you give me your immediate thoughts, that sound okay? We'll see. Which stage of the business did you suck in as a leader most and what did you learn? Definitely delegation. I like to get my hands dirty with all aspects of the business And so it was it was very hard to kind of let go of parts of it to other leaders Can you not micromanage at scale Jensen Wang as told us was 60 dire at reports? I cannot wait until we're a two trillion dollar company and I will be able to I will be able to go back into that mode I'm in a brief period where I have to delegate to keep people happy, but eventually we will be back to that land I think the real lesson is now is you choose the areas that you need to exert that level of involvement So in places like let's say critical areas like AI or end user experience and some product, you know strategy I still kind of revert back to you know early startup self But there are many areas where just honestly either because of the amount of hours that the job takes or just the fact that like like you want to be able to bring on great people that are motivated to go execute, delegation is actually extremely important.

45:19Why do you think Zuck's crushed it so much? In life we're in AI. I mean, in AI specifically. My read on this is you have one of the best entrepreneurs of our time that has basically all of the right underlying resources for AI. So lots of compute, incredible engineers, billions of users, IE lots of data. And I think he is extremely motivated to have a platform that the internet builds on and participates in. And I think AI is sort of his moment to really kind of reestablish the dominance that I think we remember Facebook having in the maybe late 2000s, which was like we were all going to build on the social fabric of the web.

45:59Some of that happened. Some didn't exactly happen as planned. And I think AI is now this moment when actually you can provide a real alternative to more of the relatively closed approaches to AI. and he's sort of set up extremely well to be that kind of counterbalance in this space right now. So I just think it's like all of the stars aligning for his particular both philosophy and resources. You can add anyone to your board, but obviously you don't have them already. Who would you add them? Why them? We had Jensen's speak at Box six years ago and Jen and I was not a thing, but AI was a thing.

46:35So I'd say Jensen having access to, you know, basically the start of the supply chain of AI is such an important perspective on where things are going. I mean, you, you, if you could just look at his invoices to and from TSMC, if we could just see that data, you would kind of know what to go build next. His window into, you know, five or 10 years out in tech is as unparalleled right now. What did you not do with box that you wish you'd done? Everyone has to prioritize. Everyone has strategic decisions on we focus here. What decision did you decide not to do that you wish you had done? Earlier in our journey, I would have focused more on cash flow.

47:11I have become a little bit of religious around cash flow. I think owning your own destiny as a company is important. I think caring about and inspecting every single dollar of spend in the business is very important. In very loose capital environments, it sort of gets forgotten about or people don't really care about it. But actually, I think it helps you build a better business because you apply constraints that forced better decisions, better strategy, better execution. So I would have done that years earlier than when we ultimately focused on cash flow. Even my now for a few years, what's the secret success is like fucking on it, public market CEO, and a happy marriage.

47:48Pretty tough to do. It helps that my wife is equally busy. So I don't get yelled at as much as probably as possible for for my own not busyness. I mean, you just probably all the standard things. You just you carve out the daydates, you have weekends for family time, and then you just ask for forgiveness a lot. Why are you bullish on Apple? I'm bullish on Apple for a variety of reasons, you know, institutionally how the company operates. But there's some meme probably of like, why is Apple not fully in AI yet? First of all, if you look at the most immediate threat that AI poses for for companies, I don't think Apple is is immediately threatened by AI.

48:27Most of my AI usage is on an Apple product that I have often paid money to Apple to be able to use. So like, just like on the most immediate basis, all of my usage of AI is not threatening to anything that Apple does and is purely contributing even more to their platform dominance. But now let's go on the offensive side. So that's sort of on the defensive side. Like you have to first assess, you know, does this new technology hurt a business that I'm in? And I think the answer is largely no for Apple. They're not selling something that AI is sort of directly threatening. Then you flip to the offensive side, which is, does AI help the business that Apple is in?

49:03And I think it's unquestionable that if you could turn this thing into basically a command center, I just say something to AI. And it does a thing in the world. It gets me an answer to a search query, hey, what's a good way to make dinner tonight? whatever you do as a personal side, instantly they'll just do that. And then if it really turns into a thing of like, hey, book me this flight or call this Uber for me or whatever, that's just an infinite amount of new types of transactions that they can facilitate that they are not currently monetizing in any kind of meaningful way. Now, who knows how they actually monetize those things, but I think it turns your phone basically into your task automation engine, this intelligent sort of device.

49:48And so if you have a billion plus people that are using this device for now a new set of things that they never used it before It's all through your interfaces your APIs or your software. I think that put them in a very powerful position So then the only question is like oh well, so why is it taking kind of quote -unquote so long? I would actually argue that any of the any of the kind of quote -unquote either delays or slow down doesn't amount to anything The AI that I was using a year ago is totally different than the AI I'm using today This space is changing so rapidly that it is way better for Apple to enter the moment when they, you know, believe that they've built the right user experience When the technology is sort of stable and when it's high enough quality We will all use with the thing that they launch whenever that point is all they just partner with open air I asked that I suppose it's these toasts be doing it That's my thing is like there's not that's not even an or what why is that an or like what does it matter to you?

50:40What is the underlying engine in Siri? I don't care I want to be able to click my phone, ask a question, get something done. So, I don't even see that as an or. I see that as just a natural sort of technology, partner supply chain thing. And who even knows what they're even doing because it's all rumors. I don't see that as any weakness on Apple's front. I see that as a consumer. I just want the best AI to be on my device. Final one. If I said to you, it's 20, what is it, 2029, why would you be thrilled for box to be then? There's, there's, there's, like metrics like, you know, We just passed a billion in revenue.

51:14We like to get to two billion as quickly as possible That's an important milestone for us at Can I be blunt? Well, I'm so sorry for being so rude you talk billion in revenue your market cap is 3 .89 I'm I like I'm depressed Don't be too depressed. No, but like I was taught like at least like 8x Yeah, I'm a rasta. This is sort of why I am the lesson for everybody's future is eventually, at some future point, you will be measured on a set of metrics that are much more boring than AR multiples, and they will be free cash limit multiples or whatnot. So, we are at the later stage of that journey now.

51:564x is clearly way too undervalued. You should be in the kind of 6 or 8x range. We had a period probably the last couple of years where the kind of core business slowed down and we've been launching a sort of second act as a word or third act within you know both AI Workflow automation more business process that takes time to get to scale before obviously the top line growth You know can slow down so so we're kind of in the midst of that transition right now But these are the things you deal with as a as a public company So why would you be five years then sorry? I interrupt you with no No, no, it's fine.

52:30So our next set of goals, get it to a billion as quickly as possible. Marker cap kind of, you know, whatever is associated with that, you know, I don't have a specific, one specific thing as much as kind of back to what we were talking about earlier on AI. You know, if you think about the information that goes into your content, your contracts, your marketing assets, your financial records, your invoices, this is basically, you know, the closest thing that a company has to its digital memory, let's just say. And AI now has the ability to actually tap into your digital memory as a company. The thing that over the next couple of years, and so let's say five as an arbitrary point, is really enabling just the world to reimagine what they can do with their data.

53:11And what if every company had infinite digital memory to make better decisions, to automate more processes? Think about the new employee that has to be onboarded, that doesn't know anything about what the hell the organization is doing. Instantly, that's now what they can tap into. So, so we think it's just a profound moment for for how you work with your information in the cloud. Listen Aaron, thank you so much for putting up with me pressing in any different areas, which was toad also like there was no schedule send ahead of time. This like arranged on Twitter without the usual process. I'm sure.

53:41Who wants process? So we're going to. But thank you so much. Thank you. I mean, what can I say? I absolutely love doing that show. If you want to watch the full episode, you can watch it on YouTube by searching for The 2020 VC does 20 VC on YouTube, but before we leave you today, I want to talk about Koolie, the global law firm built around startups and venture capital. Since forming the first venture fund in Silicon Valley, Koolie has formed more venture capital funds than any other law firm in the world, with 60 plus years working with VCs. They help VCs form and manage funds, make investments and handle the myriad issues that arise through a fund's lifetime.

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56:13As always, I so appreciate all your support and stay tuned for an incredible episode this coming Friday, a compilation where we bring together the best minds in AI to understand where they think true value lies, whether it's in the infrastructure layer with foundation models or in the application layer with start -ups.