20VC: Sequoia's Shaun Maguire: Will We See WW3 Shortly | Why DEI is a Cancer for Society | Why Iran is the World's Greatest Evil | Why Trump is the Only Hope for Peace in the Middle East | Trump vs Harris: Who Wins & What Happens

27:15Listen, there are a lot of parties he's starting to gain from different sides winning this next election. Iran would have heavily like a Harris win. I think Putin would have a really like a Trump win. And my question to you is the next election, not just as vulnerable to foreign parties, having an impact? Of course it is. And that's why I'm saying I can't predict it. And I don't even think the polymarket odds or any of the odds are that reflective because I don't think that they price in nation state activity or cheating effectively. Who is the biggest threat from a nation state activity cheating?

27:48No comment right now. The civilian population really misunderstands and underestimates how much spy activity and cheating there is in the world. There was a really crazy anecdote that came out about 10 days ago or so. I don't know if you saw this, but basically in the prisoner swap with Russia for Ethan Gersovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter, two of the spies that got returned to Russia had been like literally out of the Americans TV show. They had been deep, deep undercover, pretending they're an Argentinian couple, and they had two children, and their children flew back to Russia with them, as part of the prison swap.

28:33The children did not know they're Russian. They had no idea of the Russian heritage, and there's like videos and photos of them getting off the airplane and Putin meeting them on the tarmac, but allegedly Putin said to them when they got their Buenos notches to the kids. Literally, like their parents were so deep undercover that the kids didn't know their Russian. Like this happened 10 days ago. And that is like something that was discovered. Like people have no idea the level of sophistication of some of these things. And like that is a tiny, tiny, tiny little thing that's happened in the world.

29:07Can I ask you, when we go back to kind of the adaction, did Trump make a mistake appointing JD Vance? And then it seems like it's a series of faux pas and mishaps that have been made since, and it's really damaged his Trump's campaign toward extent and has it. I think it's a complicated thing to answer because I think if Trump gets elected, then I think it was a phenomenal pick because I think that JD is really, really smart, really capable, would be one of the best VPs you could possibly have on the job. But in terms of getting elected, I don't think that it was the easy path choice for getting elected.

29:43I think the easy path would be someone like Nikki Haley or someone that appeals to a kind of broader and different demographic. But unfortunately we live in a time where everything is so politicized that people don't even care who you actually are, what your views are. Everything is clipped out of context. Everything is weaponized against you on bullsights. I don't want this to be a partisan take. But so it would take with Trump. One of the very formative clip for me was the Charlottesville clip. I'm Jewish a few years ago when he Made the comment that they're very foreign people at the Charlottesville rally like you know I was offended by that and I thought that was crazy I try to really pay attention to what's happening like to what people actually say and from first principles and all those But even I had never seen the full clip of what he said in Charlottesville and tell about four months ago Or so and I tweeted about this but he basically said the opposite I mean he said very explicitly that he condemns neo -nazis He condemns white supremacists.

30:42He says that three times in this in the full clip But somehow it's like spun to mean the opposite of what he said This is happening with JD Vance JD's comments on abortion have been more moderate actually than what has been Presented to the world. He's being clipped in the most out of context most adversary away possible And for this where this happens to Kamala Harris as well. This was happening to Joe Biden in. I think Joe Biden probably does have, you know, he's clearly in mental decline, but going back a few years, like some of the clips that went very viral to evidence that, like we're clipped out of context, you know, and like makes it seem like he's trying to sit down at the wrong time, but like he was just maybe two seconds ahead of people.

31:25Like there were, like we were living this very saddening, a very adversarial media environment on both sides where nobody, like, listens to the full length of what people say. And I I think this works against JD more than it works against someone like Nikki Haley. Cannelly just because of the package of how it's delivered. Are you thinking he'll swap out JD Vons before the election? No. Do you think he should? No. He's doing what he thinks would be best for America, which is having a very, very smart VP that if they get in office, like knows exactly what needs to be done and can help them do it.

32:03And cannelly, like, we need a lot of reform in the US government. And I think JD would be much more effective at helping with some of this reform than many of the other candidates. I spoke to a very knowledgeable, informed political figure in the US the other day and they said if Trump doesn't win, my real fear is that will be just incredible civil unrest. Like his supporters will go nuts. Is that possible? Look, I think it's way more likely the other way around. I think almost everything that we've been told about the world has been like the opposite has been true. Like the BLM riots and like anything that Antifa does is way more extreme than what the far right has done I don't believe it.

32:44You think there's civil unrest if he wins. I'm not saying there will be I personally think that there is More risk of civil unrest from the far left than from the far right. Can I ask you That's something I love about you. Sure. And as you're not afraid to say how you feel and answer tough for questions Do you think we live in a society where you have freedom of speech? Great question. I think there's a huge evidence between having freedom of speech, being willing to use it, and having lots of information warfare. And so just to unpack this quickly, like, I don't think we had freedom of speech before Elon bought Twitter.

33:20Things like Trump getting banned from X and many, many right wing voices getting banned from, you know, Twitter at the time. I think we're moving away from free speech very quickly in Europe. And let me be clear. I think we have free speech in America right now. I don't think you have it in Europe It's pretty crazy. I mean, well, I'm first of all do you agree with that or not? I do agree There was this like this one was crazy and most Europeans don't even know this stuff is happening because you can't talk about it So maybe like two months ago or so there was like the final legal proceedings of this just like what are the most horrific rape Instance I've ever heard of it was a young woman and I'm almost certainly not sure.

33:59Basically, a young white girl was in a park at night. Basically, a group of four men who were migrants, all raped her, all four raped her, then they let her go. But they had been sending WhatsApp messages to their friends saying that there's like a white girl in the park, come rape her. And so she started running away. She made it to another group of men. I think this one was three. Those three men all raped her. Then she started running away. Another group of two men found her, they raped her. Then she got away. She kept going another group of two men found her and they raped her. So she was raped by 11 men in the park in one night.

34:42I think that seven out of 11 had, there was video evidence of them or at least photographic evidence of them. I think nine out of 11 had DNA evidence like where there was semen in the woman. So like the most evidence you can possibly have after that happened like after sentencing I think only one of them got jail time and it was it was like two years I think only one got jail time but some hackers released the Contact information of the rapist like to try to get revenge because of this and there was some woman She sent a bunch of nasty text messages to one of the rapists and she ended up getting two days in prison for like hate speech and two years of community service for it.

35:26So she got more of a sentence than like 10 of 11 rapists, a bunch of whom had DNA and video evidence. That is the world that Europe is in. That's state of Europe. It's pretty insane. And so people don't even know these things are happening because you can't talk about it. The media is not talking about it. It's insane. I'm mad at that. Why are we not talking about it? We are able to talk about it. Why don't I talk because I am fearful that bluntly that there is no upside to me talking. I obviously have beliefs. There is no benefit to me saying what I obviously see because it's a good challenge one of my LPs beliefs.

36:01It could challenge one of my founders. It is better to just say nothing. I think that this is an offshoot of cancel culture. Like, cancel culture primed people to become so afraid to say what they think that people just became silent as it's evolved. We've got into a point where the people that made it to the top in many situations made it by not only not saying anything, but saying one position is acceptable, the other side is not. There's a lot of leaders in Europe that have been maximally on the train of pro -migration, or never -ever condemn a migrant. Migrants can do no wrong. And like that was part of how they got elected to senior positions.

36:48And now that kind of the data has reversed, their positions can't reverse because they have too much vested in this. Do you think migration is Europe's top challenge when you look at the migration into particularly France from North Africa, when you look at the migration patterns that we have in the UK, Scandinavia is terrible for migration. So I've been to over a hundred countries. My biggest trip was in 2008 -2009. On that trip, I went to all over the world, but I had a pretty formal experience in Sweden where I was on the train from Stockholm to Malmo and half of the train were migrants and it was just clear they were not being assimilated at all.

37:28And at the time, I don't remember the exact statistics, but Sweden's obviously a very small population, 9 million people or something like that at the time. and at the time the country of Sweden had taken more refugees from the Middle East than America. And I don't remember exactly which country I'm drawing the lines from Iraq or from Afghanistan or from the combination, but like even though America had started the wars there, Sweden had taken more refugees, not on a per capita basis on an absolute basis than America. And they were taking them at a rate that you just can't assimilate them into the culture of that population, you know, there's not like enough schools to teach people Swedish, you know, for adults.

38:10There's not enough jobs. Like it's hard to have cracks in the hospital network. The refugees go and live in their own little cities and my family were migrants to America. I'm a huge huge believer in like orderly immigration and skilled immigration. And I have empathy for refugees, but I think that it's kind of insane if there's an idea that people can immigrate to a company not assimilate into the culture of that country. That's what Europe has got in wrong. Like they've let people come in with open border policies and not assimilate. And now Europe doesn't have is on the verge of not having European culture anymore.

38:49It'll be they're importing the culture of North Africa. Do you think it is immigration that is the problem? What do you think it is simply the reduction in living standards and not having enough jobs. And then everyone goes, it's the immigrants. We are actually looking at the wrong thing for a different problem. Hey, why don't we embrace data centers from the biggest incumbents? Why don't we embrace technology as the UK? Why don't we not tax the shit out of the rich so they actually choose to be here? Are you short Europe? Barry Summers is like it's a museum. I love Europe. I try to see the best in everywhere.

39:24where I think you can still have a great life in Europe going forward. I think there'll also be great companies created in Europe. I just think that the rate, like the probability of those things happening will be lower than in many other places and lower in Europe on a proportion basis than it was 20 years ago. I think the place that's doing the best right now of anywhere is probably Dubai. Like UAE is crushing. You go, just go look at what they're doing and their policies, like they're doing better than anywhere. And so, yes, I think Europe is on the way down. I think the whole West is in decline relative to the East, but I think you can still have a great life and there's still a lot of opportunity.

40:05We mentioned being canceled or feeling like I was being canceled. People try to have you fired. Yes, that's true. Talk to me about that. And how did that go down? You called into an office and said, hey, some important people tried to get you fired. I can't look. I'm not going to go into other details. Many, many different people tried to get me fired in many different ways. Look, after October 7th, I was one of the most outspoken people in the world and one of the first, yeah, people don't like that. Or I'll give you a more recent experience, not about myself, but in my inbox, the last, you know, I feel happy that I got spared from this.

40:41But in my Sequoia inbox, the last 12 hours, 20 climate people have emailed most Sequoia partners saying that like Doug Leone is problematic for supporting Trump and that Trump has anti -climate positions and they don't know how they can support how they can believe that support Sequoia supports climate anymore. But just really quick, like 20 people, obviously there's some climate mailing list or some climate group and they basically all send the same language, but they're trying to cancel Doug for supporting Trump because of Trump's climate policies. And it's like obviously it's not gonna work.

41:16It's Doug Leone, but I just find it crazy that it's like one partner in a firm that has made great climate investments. It's this cancel culture, ideology, and it's this belief that someone disagrees with you, and so you can just send an email, and maybe someone will take action on it. I think that's very sloppy, and I hope we can get back to a point where we can have civil discourse, civil debate, not assume that every side is stupid or wrong or villainous like I would really love to see that meeting happen I would love to see Doug cool then and sat down and told that you're a naughty boy I don't think I don't think he will I think somehow might not happen I do have to ask I suppose from any of your founders and they said I had to ask about this They said you have to ask what he thinks about the I this is one of the most important things to us and how he feels should be spoken about more.

42:11So when it comes to DEI, how do you feel? Oh man, good question. First of all, I think that the modern paradigm of DEI is toxic woke ideology that is literally cancer for society. I'm not gonna mince words with that, but I think that DEI means something different than what Mark Cuban thinks. I think that DEI is not diversity. And I deeply believe in diversity. Like diversity matters a lot to me. DEI, like one piece of his equity. And the definition of equity is not creating equal opportunities. It's to have equal outcomes. That is insane. The idea that no matter what someone's work I think is or no matter like what their talent is, that everyone should have equal outcomes.

43:01Like that is communism. that will literally destroy the West from inside. And so I have this kind of, of this really polarized views where I am very supportive of diversity and have been a champion of diversity my entire life. But D .I. means something different than people think it does. Like D .I. means you can have quotas against hiring white men. A lot of journalists say how many female founders do you have in your portfolio? Do you think that is the wrong question to ask? I think that that's a fair question to ask. It's helpful to have reminders. You should go hunt for new opportunities like outside of your base network and like it's helpful to have reminders of like, oh wow, you only work with white men.

43:48Like that's a good, it's helpful to see that statistics. It's kind of a reminder that hey, maybe I'm doing something wrong, but I will say there is a venture fund that I know very well. It is not Sequoia that for a period of time had a policy that every investor was to boast a back at least one female founder per year. Even if you did zero investments, so like if you did zero investments in that year, you were not meeting that policy. And so I just, for me, my issues are more with like poorly implemented policies. How do you feel about the pronouns and the EHER compliant stuff that we have to do today?

44:24I have no issues at all with people living their lives however they want. But I have strongly allergic reaction to imposing your views on other people with the transgender stuff, the things that the issue that I think is really wrong is basically how we're handling transgender issues in schools. And the idea that like schools don't need to report to parents, you know, if a 12 -year -old child says they're transgender in the most extreme that like affirming children's gender is taken into like custody battles in Canada and other places and it can even be seen in the most extreme case as child abuse to not affirm your child's gender.

45:16And like just things like that are really insane to me, especially for 12 year old kids. I think that that is a batshit crazy flocking. Did you see Elon's interview with Jordan Peterson where he said about the loss of his child to kind of the work mind virus in this? I didn't watch the full interview, but I watched part of it. What did you think? So I have two sons and I hope to have more kids. For me, I think that if I felt like I lost a child or had a damaged relationship with a child because of what schools or the state did, I would be beyond furious and beyond paint. That's like the crux of what it comes down to is.

45:59If other people are able to groom your child, that is not okay to me. But on the other hand, if you do, like genuinely have a child that is transgender, I think they should be supported. Why would you want your children to grow up, Sean? Israel. Why? This is going to sound crazy. I want my kids to grow up a lot of resiliency and grit, and when you're under attack and misunderstood and stuff, it is a shield from all of the insanity that is happening in the rest of the world. And so even though they're physically under attack, and you have to go into the bomb shelter regularly when rockets are fired in Iron Dome has intercepted them.

46:39Growing up in Israel gives you a shield against information warfare, because when you're on the receiving end of information warfare all the time every day, It shows you what the tactics are and makes you immune to it. Growing up in that environment gives you immunity against complacency and laziness, puts a chip on your shoulder. It shows you what the world actually is. It gives you a sense of camaraderie to be amongst the community where kind of everyone is going to do the same thing and that if you don't cooperate then you won't make it. Why do you not move the family there then? Well, I am buying a house in Israel right now.

47:19I close on it soon. Do you fear for your safety in the US? I do, especially because of how it's spoken I've been. I get recognized pretty regularly now. It's kind of insane. You know, I've had dozens of death threats, some of which were pretty credible after October 7. If you were now, then like at the peak when I was really, really active and simple things like whenever I'm in a newbie, I don't ever want to mention Judaism or Israel and like these are very simple things, but I mean first of all there has been a lot more Jewish hate crimes in the West in the Central October 7th than people realize it is not report on there are murders of Jews that are not reported on like I know of two people that were murdered that is not as barely reported on by the main She media.

48:05It's insane. Why? Because it is against the narrative if you go report that a Jewish dentist in San Diego is stabbed to death by a patient named Mohammed. This actually happened. A person Jewish dentist, who my family knows, in San Diego was literally stabbed to death by a former patient named Mohammed, like just randomly, it was not reported and it was not reported as a hate crime, et cetera, because it's against the narrative and there's media capture on one side. And there's actually been quite a few incidents like that since October 7th, and they are not reported. And on the opposite side, the things have been reported out of proportion, but anyways.

48:41Can I ask you how do you get away with the things that you say Sean? I mean it in the nicest way but within Sequoia it is a firm. You have to tow the party line often. You don't how? Well, you should ask Ruloth, but look at this and you down and say you have a special microphone asus. Look I can get fired at any moment. It's possible. I think Sequoia is a really special place I think it's a more special place than people realize part of the secret of how Sequoia has stayed so successful for so long is by having a culture where you can have people with opposite personalities, opposite points of view that still work together really well.

49:24You know like Mike Meritz and Doug Leoni could not have more opposite political perspectives or more opposite personalities. They worked together for almost 30 years and I I think there were many disagreements, but like when those two guys would disagree on something and you know have a long debate, whatever they led to as to compromise, whatever, like that process is polishing a diamond. Like you start with the lump of coal and through this extreme, you know, like combative process, like you can polish it into like a diamond of an idea. Why am I not fired? One, I try to only say things that I have researched to an unbelievable extent and can back up to any level of detail.

50:07Second, I try to have a lot of empathy and so, like, even if it doesn't come across this way, I have pretty nuanced views and I try to have empathy for people. And three, I really care about my partners and try to support my partners and so even if it doesn't come across that way. Talk to me about the time you ran 17 and a half miles to see your partners at SpaceX. Yeah. Yeah. As I have an insane amount of energy, I have my whole life. If I don't exercise, like if I don't just burn my energy into the ground, I lose my mind. I'm like a wild animal, feral animal if I don't exercise. And so this is something I do a lot, like all the time.

50:47I timed it out and napped it out in, you know, 15 miles and scheduled a bunch of phone calls. and I literally ran to SpaceX in my jeans from West Hollywood and I did phone calls most of the way while running in my jeans and part of it was through the deep, deep ghetto. Probably really stupid to do it. I won't do it again. It was middle of the day and so I felt a little bit more comfortable, but yeah, I'm stupid like that. Final one for the quickfire promise. You said we were really killed for investing in X. I'm long X. Total respect for you and for Elon for X. I love X. But it was at $44 billion.

51:28Can you pay in the case for how that is a good investment at a $44 billion entry price? And what that needs to be? What I wish we paid a lower price, obviously. The price was what it was at that point in the public market. So when you do a take -private, you have to pay a premium to the public price. And so I wish it was half the price, but I think that X is one of the most strategic assets in the world And I think Elon is the best operator in the world and I think that Usage is at all time high on the platform. I think the relevancy of the platform is at all time high I think X is still Weeding the garden or you know like just removing all of the dead weight and clearing through the brush before kind of the whole next gen of product ideas and like enhanced monetization of effects will happen.

52:24What may Ceylon so good? I think for him many things. One, I think he is one of the greatest first principle thinkers of all time. Two, I think that he is, has some of the best instincts of anyone out there. I think that people don't quite appreciate just how good his instincts are and sometimes back in 2013 or so he was saying that eventually SpaceX will launch Starlink and that it would be a huge deal. Like the technologies of how you would make Starlink were science fiction in 2013, like the phased Ray antennas and like, you know, the costs and I don't think anyone could have laid out the exact blueprint of how you would build Starlink five years later back then, but I think he just had such strong instincts that it all would happen and almost visually see the price changes and the technology improvements and kind of can put that together to see where things are going.

53:25So anyway, it's his incredible instincts. Next thing is that I think he's one of the best reads of young talent ever. He is an absolute superhuman and identifying young off the charts talented people that are from non -obvious backgrounds. Like he doesn't need someone to be from like the most obvious background to... He doesn't need that, oh there were an IOMO gold medalist and so therefore I'll hire them. He can go meet someone off the street and just like because he's such an expert in so many things he can ask them to go deep on things and he can assess like just how far deep they can go. And I can't begin his stress to you how important that is.

54:01And then I think one last thing is that... And this is something that John and Patrick call us and do very well too. They all randomly sample every single part of the company at all times. So like a day for them would be follow a junior engineering candidate, like interview that person, be the first interview and see how they go through the pipeline, join a junior sales standup, join like a meeting of managers of managers, like meet with a president. It just by looking at every business function know on different link scales kind of randomly lets you basically diagnose problems in these organizations early and just gives you a lot more leverage than if you are set in your ways.

54:45Sure, I can talk to you all day, but I want to move into a quick five. So I say a short statement, you give me your thoughts in 60 seconds or less. Yes. Is AI overrated or underrated? Overrated in the short run underrated in the long run. How do you feel about the US selling off Bitcoin? One of the stupidest decisions of all time. It's just such an obvious hedge for America. Like, and selling $2 billion a bit coin today just doesn't matter for America. But in the world where China and others basically weaken the dollar deliberately, kind of reduce dollar dominance, which they're doing right now.

55:20People don't understand how much this is happening right now, especially after the war in Ukraine, where US sanctioned Russia, Russia basically moved off Swift. like a lot of oil trade is now happening in Yuan, not in dollars, the petri -dollars breaking, blah, blah, blah. Like you look at the cross -border trade in China and like the percent of it that's happening in Yuan now, it's not like 60 % is happening in Yuan, which is insane compared to a decade ago. And so I just think it's a very obvious hedge for America as to hold Bitcoin. Should the US stop funding Ukraine? I can't do this one in 60 seconds.

55:52Take 120. I first visited Ukraine in 1992. to my great grandfather Arthur Cohen was a geologist who worked in the Black Sea, and he took my family to go visit the region after the Soviet Union collapse. So we could go see it. Ukraine in 1992 was like, it was the saddest place I've ever been, because after the Soviet Union fell, there was a couple of year period where there was still enough like inertia from the Soviet Union of the economy of like output of oil and commodities and stockpiles of goods, et cetera, that were being sold, that there was still some money coming in called in 1991, but by like end of 1992, early 1993, it was the absolute low point in terms of the economy there.

56:33And five -year -old kids were just begging in the street, swarming you, you know, if when they could tell that you were from America and might have some money or whatever, like you'd go in a grocery store and there'd be ten items in the entire grocery store. Like it was very, very poor and I love, so kind of that was a formative experience for me and I've studied Ukraine very deeply since I have a lot of love for Ukraine. But I think the war in Ukraine, I think that America could not have botched the initial response more. But I think that now we're in a situation where I don't think a forever war is in the interest of the Ukrainian people over time, like in a war of production, the East will win.

57:16I think that China will just wild the outproduce munitions compared to the West. The thing that's in Ukraine's interest is to have a ceasefire and unfortunately seed some of the Eastern territory. There needs to be some security guarantee with teeth that is not NATO, but is something else to have it deterrence against Russia just kind of doing the same thing again and just eating away more and more territory. Another landmine topic. I love the Ukrainian people. I believe in them. And there's a lot of nuance around them saying But I don't think of forever wars in their interest. Who's the best picker inside Secure?

57:54I really think it depends on the topic like if it's a SaaS company Pat Grady if it's you have to read someone you only get like 10 minutes to read the person that is Doug Leoni if it's like a biotech company, it's definitely Rulaf. If it's an operationally heavy company, it's Alfred. If it's a FinTech company, it's probably Injureed. If it's a AI company, it's David Kahn, Sonja, and Concentreine. Like, it just, it really depends on the type of company. Who's the best at sourcing? You can't give me that variant. DEFINITION and Josephine Chen and Constantine. Which we see would you most like to swap portfolios with today?

58:40Nobody I think I have a pretty good portfolio. Come on, Pat said my moon. You've got to have a buddy we all are definitely take that. What's your biggest miss? I have many many many misses. It's Andrew for sure. Trace Stevens and Peter Teele led the seed round in my company. You know, I've known Palmer since before started the company and I don't know how I didn't invest in that company It's insane. Did you have the chance to I should have had the chance to like my yeah, I should have had the chance to I was right around those guys And yeah, I'm a moron for not Funny what you know now that you wish you'd known before you had your first child Look when you have kids you figure it all out just do it go have kids.

59:24It's great Final one was been your biggest takeaway from working with Doug for these years. Doug is the man. I absolutely love Doug. Let's see. I'd say there's three things. One, to have a sense of humor with everything you're doing. Two, the maximally direct, you know, go for it. And when you combine those two, like being extremely direct, but doing it with love and humor, it's game changer. Next is do not waste anyone's time. Your own time or their time. and related to that as few of words as possible to get the point across. Sean, dude, I've wanted to see this one for a long time. I cannot thank you enough for being so understanding with my prior impressions and you've been amazing.

1:00:07You're the man I've been wanting to do it for a long time too. Thank you for having me. Keep doing what you're doing. I mean, that was such an incredible show to do. I want to say a huge thank you to Sean for being so open. That is not the usual openness or level of openness that we get from guests. I think it's a real testament to him. If you want to watch the full interview you can find it on YouTube by searching for 20 VC, that's 2 -0 VC. But before we leave you today, when a promising start -up files for an IPO or a venture capital firm loses its marquee partner, being the first to know gives you an advantage and time to plan your strategic response.

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