20VC: Why Foundation Model Performance is Not Diminishing But Models Are Commoditising, Why Nvidia Will Enter the Model Space and Models Will Enter the Chip Space & The Right Business Model for AI Software with David Luan, Co-Founder @ Adept

24 Jun 2024 · 56 min

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Podcast Summary: The Twenty Minute VC (20VC) - Episode with David Luan

Episode Details

  • Title: 20VC: Why Foundation Model Performance is Not Diminishing But Models Are Commoditizing
  • Guest: David Luan, Co-Founder & CEO at Adept
  • Air Date: [Insert Air Date Here]

Overview In this episode, host Harry Stebbings interviews David Luan, a prominent figure in the AI industry and co-founder of Adept. The discussion revolves around advancements in AI, particularly foundation models, their commoditization, and the future implications for both AI technology and the business landscape. Luan draws from his extensive experience working at OpenAI and Google Brain, sharing insightful observations about the evolution of AI models and business strategies in the AI realm.

Key Discussion Points

  1. Lessons from OpenAI and Google Brain
  2. Realization about AI Progress: OpenAI identified that the real advancement in AI post-transformers wouldn't come from academic research but rather from solving significant, unsolved scientific problems.
  3. Time Lag in Consumer Adoption: The delay between transformer breakthroughs (2017) and the success of ChatGPT (2022) was due to the need for models to reach a minimum viable intelligence and suitable packaging for consumer use.
  1. Foundation Models: Analyzing Performance and Commoditization
  2. Diminishing Returns Debate: Luan strongly disagrees with the assertion that foundation model performance is diminishing. Instead, he argues that scaling models correctly can yield consistent improvements.
  3. Future of Foundation Models: He predicts that the market will consolidate to about 5-7 primary foundation model providers, separating winners from losers based on their ability to innovate and scale effectively.
  4. Commoditization vs. Innovation: While commoditization is a concern, Luan believes that true innovation and advancements in reasoning capabilities will prevent complete commoditization.
  1. Business Models in AI Software
  2. Shift to Application Layer: Luan believes that in the upcoming years, everyone will have an AI agent that assists with various tasks, marking a significant shift in how businesses operate.
  3. Agents vs. RPA: The distinction is made between traditional Robotic Process Automation (RPA), which is suited for repetitive tasks, and AI agents, which are designed for dynamic, goal-driven tasks that require a higher level of cognitive flexibility.
  1. Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
  2. Integration of AI and Chipmaking: Luan discusses the inevitable trend of AI model providers needing to develop their own chips to maintain competitive advantages, resulting in a convergence of chipmaking and AI model development.
  3. The Role of Agents: He envisions a future where AI agents will significantly enhance human capabilities, moving towards a model of collaborative work rather than complete automation.
  1. AI Regulation Concerns
  2. Regulatory Capture: Luan expresses concern that poorly-informed regulations could stifle innovation in AI by limiting the ability of new companies to emerge and compete, ultimately entrenching existing power structures.
  1. Final Thoughts on AI's Future
  2. Luan anticipates that AI technology will evolve to enhance human intelligence and creativity rather than simply replace human jobs. The interface between humans and AI systems will be crucial for realizing this vision.

Key Takeaways

  • AI's Evolution: The transition from transformers to more complex foundational models will continue, with expectations of greater integration and utility in everyday tasks.
  • Business Model Innovation: Companies must adapt their business strategies to leverage AI effectively, focusing on how AI can enhance productivity and creativity.
  • Collaboration Over Replacement: The future of AI should focus on collaboration between humans and machines, rather than complete automation or replacement of human roles.

Conclusion David Luan's insights provide a forward-looking perspective on the future of AI, emphasizing the importance of innovation, strategic business models, and the collaborative potential of AI agents. The discussion highlights both challenges and opportunities in the rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence.

For more resources and information, visit [20VC's website](http://www.20vc.com).

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Transcript

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0:00What OpenAI realized before basically everybody butt deep mind was that the next phase of AI after a transformer was not going to be about research paper writing. It was going to be about let's choose a major unsolved scientific problem and just try to solve it. The second way of improving model performance is just starting to be tapped now. And that's also going to absorb a boatload of compute. Because of that, I actually am not worried about the diminishing returns that compute overtime. I think every tier one cloud provider where access essentially needs to win here. This is 20VC with me Harry Stabbings and stay with join by one of the most prominent founders in the world of AI, David Luan, CEO and co -founder at Adapt.

0:39The company building AI agents for knowledge workers. To date, David has raised over $400 million for the company from Greylock, Andre Capathy, Scott Belzky, and Vidya, service now on work, data name a few. And before co -founding Adapt, he was the VP of Engineering at OpenAI, where his teams shipped GPT and Dali. Before that, David like Google's giant model efforts as a co -lead of Google Brain. This is an incredible end -up discussion. Some very controversial actual opinions here that go against quite a lot of the views that we've heard in recent weeks on the commoditization of models and also on the future pricing model of AI software.

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3:58I've wanted to do this one for a long time. I've had so many good things. So first, thank you so much for joining me today. Yeah, thanks Harry for having me on it. I've got to watch some of your cool previous episodes, so it's a real honor to be on here. And that's very, very kind of you. I really do appreciate that man, but you've been as some incredible companies as a training ground so to speak. One of which was Google Brain and I just wanted to start there. When you think about your biggest takeaways from your time with Google Brain, what would you say once to are and how do you think that shaped how you think about building a depth today?

4:27Yeah, I mean, Google Brain was and also now as part of DeepMind is a really magical place. I think during the peak days of AI progress on the research side where every day there was a new paper that came out that had just changed the world. That like 2012 to 2018 or so era, Google Brain was just like incredibly dominant. But it did an amazing job picking talent. Like the people who invented Transformers, the people who invented the diffusion model, the people who did, all of these new optimization techniques that we all take for granted today, they were all at brand at the same time, like truly the bell labs of the era.

4:56I learned a lot about how to make sure bottom up, like to see what good pure bottom up basic research looks like at Google Brain. What does that mean? What pure bottoms up good basic research is? So I have this world view of AI progress as being a part of a couple different phases, right? And I like to think about pre -2012 as basically being prehistory. Of course, all of the OGs in the field were probably not like that if I characterised it that way, but before 2012, like most of the things we tried just didn't really work, right? Like you had things like a sheep being identified as cats and dogs and chatbots that barely said anything go here and etc.

5:31But I think like there was a period between 20 to 12, like 2017 or 2018. where deep learning went from something that people didn't believe in to being like the dominant paradigm in the field. And so during that 2012 -2018 era, the way people made progress, what I mean by bottom -up basic research is you hire the most brilliant scientists, they come to work every day with like no near term objective they're being held accountable to. And they just work together and they think about, you know, hmm, like, I wonder what we like if we could solve this like open technical problem in AI. Like, how do we create a model that better understands how to generate images?

6:05And it just go work on that of their own curiosity and drive and maybe some interesting glory and fame through papers. And they do that for like six months or so and then out pops out this like research paper that gets posted to archive and goes to a Journal that like just solves the problem. That's huge, right? And so the reason I call it bottom up is because it's just driven by the natural interactions between all of these researchers in a setting and they figure out what they want to do. And then what's the latest wave then you had that 2012 to 2018? How do you categorize the next wave? Well, I think what happened was in 2017 the transformer came out.

6:37I was running engineering at OpenAI at the time and I was working really closely with Ilya. And Ilya and I were just sitting around and he was just like, look, this transformer thing is real. It's going to be the next most important thing. Let's get all of our teams looking at how we can use this thing. The thing that most people in the general public don't know about is we didn't invent transformer at OpenAI. It was invented at Google. But what transformer did though? It was the first time you had a model that was generally applicable to any machine learning task. Back in the day, if you wanted to understand images, you used a convolutional neural network.

7:07If you wanted to generate text, you used RNNs. If you wanted to beat humans that go, you used a tree search or a rl, right? So you had these all these different models that you would use to solve problems in AI, and then transform it became like the universal model. And base element of AI, I came out at that time and once transformer came out in a weird way You kind of stopped needing to make like super low -level breakthroughs and modeling because it kind of just worked for everything And then you get got to go take that thing to solve really really big problems The show has been successful because I'm not afraid to ask you pick questions 2017 transformers what a breakthrough but shout -out to you P .T.

7:44seems to be the consumer breakthrough that we all waited so many years for What was the reason for that chasm between transformer breakthrough and consumer adoption breakthrough with chat. Yeah, no, that's a really good question. It's kind of like chat GPT was like the frog that ultimately became boiled, right? Like transformer was a huge breakthrough and every incremental year from 2017 to when chat GPT came out, language models just got a little better and a little better and a little better. Like I remember Alec Rattford and a couple others and I did GPT 2 and GPT 2 came out in I think 2019.

8:17I just remembered finally you had this like pretty smart generalist model that you could just say, hey, like write me a newspaper article about insert celebrity being arrested in LA and it would just do a perfect job. You'd be like, oh, they were in the Neiman Market Store, etc. I thought that was so much fun. The thing is like two things had to happen. One, the models worked on it increasingly smart, but there's like a minimum viable smartness where you're like, damn, this is a compelling experience. And the second thing was it needed to be packaged up in a way that consumers could play with.

8:43So if you go look at the lag, right? But ChatGPT was really just GPT -3 with instruction, we were basically more chat -tuning. But GPT -3 API came out, I think, over a year before ChatGPT did, but only developers could play with it. So there was no viral, a hot moment for consumers. So the packaging and the intelligence had to exist in order for that virality moment to have them with ChatGPT. We mentioned ChatGPT there. Before we dive into the media, the show, I do just have to ask. You mentioned your time with OpenAI. It's such a transformative place to be. You mentioned working with Iliah there.

9:12What's one or two of your biggest takeaways from OpenAI that really informed how you think about building a debt? Well, the first one actually is, and going back to the errors of AI discussion we were having, right, what OpenAI realized before basically everybody butt deep -mind was that the next phase of AI after a transformer was not going to be about research paper writing. It was going to be about, let's choose a major unsolved scientific problem and just try to solve it. And so that led us to to go build a culture of, instead of like loose collections of federations of researchers, let's put a giant team around how do you solve robot hand control?

9:49Let's put a giant team around being in humans at one of the most popular video games on the planet, right? Let's put a giant team around scaling GPT until this thing is like a generalist reasoning and chat engine. That's just a totally different framework from this very academic curiosity driven research. And I think that that's the right framework. And I think it's a big part of how we build the depth now as well. So it's the focus of large groups of scientists on specific real world problems, not on scientific paper creation? Exactly. So it's like the switch from like hiring like a thousand people to go sit around thinking about how to put together small rockets versus like creating like the Apollo project.

10:23It's a lot better to say, hey, our goal is to go to the moon and we're going to hire however many people it takes to go solve going in the moon. It's very different than just like a giant mass of people organically self -organizing to do that. You sat about earlier about kind of the transition of models you mentioned GBT2, moving to GBT3, when we think about model performance today, people are starting to say we're seeing diminishing returns that more compute does not lead to better performance. I interviewed one of the most prominent people in AI the other day and they said that OpenAI was actually disappointed by the lack of performance that throwing more compute did to their latest release.

11:01Do you think we are seeing diminishing returns now, more compute does not lead to more performance. I don't think so. And here's why I don't think so. It all depends on what access you use, right? The way that giant model scaling works, the story of you go look all the way back to GPT -2, to GPT -3, to 4, etc. The way it's worked is that let's say just to use that reductionist analogy, every incremental GPU you throw at the problem actually does have diminishing returns. But every doubling of GPUs you throw at the problem has very predictable consistent returns. It's kind of like a logarithmic curve versus a straight line, right?

11:34Depending on what access you used to go look at it. So put another way for just scaling up a base language model. You need to double the amount of compute for that language model for it to be predictably consistently smarter. Does that make sense? It totally does. So it's like, okay, actually there's a lot more room for improvement with the increasing compute availability that we should and will have. I had Alex Wang on the show and he was like, it's not algorithms, it's not compute, it's data that is the bottleneck to AI model performance. How do you think about that? Is that true? So the better way to go think about it in my view is like, there's two parts to model scaling with compute.

12:11One part to it is you simply make the model bigger and then you throw more data and more GPUs at it. If we go look at CPUs and data centers, right? For a long time, we had Moore's Law, right? Every year, chips would get better at some predictable pace. And everybody's like, ah, Moore's Law is gonna die. You know, we're at three nanometers or whatever. There's like no more nanometers left. But what actually happened is you go look at the amount of compute available even for chips It's actually continued to trend up because now what we do is we build systems that have multiple chips in them So we have like both the scale up of a single chip and the scale out and as a result every year humanity has more and more compute available to it It's the same thing with giant model scaling the base model itself Even if the base model itself stops scaling at some point as you throw more compute at it There's a whole new way to go make models smarter that is just being tapped right now And that whole new way of making model smarter is not just making the base model larger, but it's by having the base model collect data for itself to learn how to get smarter.

13:08So let me give you a concrete example of this, right? Concrete example of this is right now, let's say you want to train an LLM to get better at solving math problems. The way you do it is you collect lots and lots of like positive solutions to hard math problems, and you throw it in the data set, right? And you're like, hey, like model could go get smarter this thing. But a much better way to solve this problem is you give the model that you're training access to a theorem proving and math environment, right? Like a give it a Jupyter notebook. They're improving library out there that a lot of people use as well.

13:37Give the model direct access to those tools and then say hey, I want you to experiment. I want you to go try solving this problem and then reflect on it. Like did it did you do a good job? Like is this problem solved? If no, try again. So now what you get to do is you get to have the model play with the a simulated world basically to collect positive and negative data how to solve math problems, and then that makes the model smarter. So the second way of improving model performance is just starting to be tapped now, and that's also going to absorb a boatload of compute. Because of that, I actually am not worried about the diminishing returns to the compute over time.

14:09Why is it just starting to be tapped now, and what does that progression look like if it's own development? Everything's an escrow, right? The giant model scaling, base model scaling escrow, for the last couple of years we were here, you're at the sharpest point of improvement. You know, you could double the cost of your amount of $100 million to $200 million, and that would be the fastest and easiest way to deliver a smarter thing to the world. And now, if you're getting to billion dollar training runs and two billion dollar training runs and four billion dollar training runs, it's really freaking hard to go get more money to go make the base thing bigger.

14:38And so because of that, now, the critical path for model improvement is shifting over to this broader sort of simulation, Synthetic data, slash RL loop path. I think it's just a natural consequence of the fact that it's so expensive to just keep scaling. Is it like reinforcement learning of its own data sets? Where it just continuously repeats the same things until it gets it right? Is that a good understanding of it? That is a good understanding of it. I think a good way to think about it is, historically, for the last couple of years as we scaled up LLMs, we've just been doing more unsupervised learning.

15:10You get more data, more smart journalists writing articles, feed it in there, and that makes it smarter. But the problem is like a model train that way is only as good as the smartest data in the training set. Like it cannot discover new knowledge, because it's job, the way the models are trained, is to do what a human would do in that situation. But the underlying thing is if you want to go solve like really big problems like solve, like prove unproven math theorems, or like be able to like help you solve a creative problem that work. Those problems are by definition things that are not in the training set because it's either like a superhuman thing Or it's a novel situation.

15:46Is that why we haven't seen agent progression in the way that we wanted to or hoped we would? Because a lot of the tasks that people do and not actually codified in data that codified in conversations and rooms in whiteboards But not in data. But not in data. Yeah, I mean, I think that's a key insight I kind of think that chat bots chat Gbt and stuff and agents are kind of becoming different species of technology I think they'll be useful in very different ways and what they need to be used for is super different. Like just one concrete example is the hallucination problem. Having hallucinations in chatbots and in like image generators is like a really good thing.

16:21Because it gives you like a starter tool for like getting to like solve the blank page problem. Like gives you like little bit of novelty and creativity. But agents on the other hand, like if you want something to go consistently, I don't know, like do your taxes for you or handle all of your shipping containers or something like that, you do not want that thing to go randomly hallucinate and like make up stuff along the way, right? And so like these things are speculating an interesting way right now. Can I as you mentioned to me before, the minimum viable capabilities levels and how that is a function of model scale.

16:53Now when you said that, I didn't have a clue what you meant. And so I was hoping that you'd be able to unpack it for me. The coolest thing, the reason why I love working AI is that like for the first time as an engineer or researcher it feels like you're like uncovering like unknown secrets about how intelligence works every day. It's like very different from programming. As a programmer I shopped to work and I'm like here's the thing I want to build I know I can build it I know if I am clever enough I can solve a problem and I know exactly the behavior of the system that I've built will be. But the cool thing about AI is that every day you come to work and you make some tweaks to the model and what you get on the other end is actually somewhat unpredictable.

17:30You kind of feel more like a gardener than an engineer. And I think what's really cool about it is that like as these AI systems have gotten bigger and as the architecture and data sets have improved, what the models go to bad at, you can't totally predict ahead of time. You have some estimates for things, but just going back to the early days, right? When we were training GPT -2, we trained GPT -2 in various different sizes. At the smallest size, the model was just like unable to do three digit arithmetic. But as the models got bigger and bigger and bigger, we didn't change anything else. We just had to look at more data and then we made the model bigger.

18:01And then at a particular size, it was just a aha moment, where it went from not being able to do three -digit arithmetic, to being very good and predictably improving at getting three -digit arithmetic better. And that aha moment we couldn't know about in advance. So that's what I mean by a minimum viable capabilities and how it's a function of model scale. There are things that we really want these models to be able to do, like be really useful agents, or to help us discover new things in science or whatever. But it's hard today to say, hey, you know, if I just spend like two billion dollars in compute on this model and have the right data That'll happen for sure.

18:34I think that's what's so cool to work in the field when we think about like actually improvements in models they lead to Improvements in performance and I kind of think there's three ways of doing that one of which is like a breakthrough and reasoning How do you think about the likelihood of a breakthrough in reasoning? What's required for that and whether that is a reasonable and the black expectation. Reasoning is one of the problems in the field right now that I think a bunch of us sort of have similar ideas for how to solve, but it actually requires some new research to be done. So in a weird way working in the AI is pretty funny these days because the giant model scaling problem is so known and it's really a function of resources.

19:13And so you kind of don't feel like you need to be a genius to go make new powers and just pure model scaling. But I think pure model scaling does not deliver solutions to reasoning. To me, the definition of reasoning is being able to like compose existing thoughts to discover some new thought. And I think to go do that, that's not something that's trained into the capabilities of LLM's, by simply asking it to regurgitate the internet's worth of data. The way we're gonna solve reasoning is back to what we were talking about earlier. Taking theorem proving as an example, you want to give the model access to a theorem proving environment and have it try things.

19:47In the same way that like you know as a human mathematician would sit down and be like, well you know, here's the things I know to be true about the world, how do I compose them such that I can prove the thing that I want to prove? Is it not the model providers who will be the one solving reasoning or is it actually the end consumers or vendors who will be leveraging proprietary data sets to then utilize that to solve reasoning? Which ones which? I think the general capability of reasoning will need to be solved at the model provider level. And that's because what you're actually doing is you're not just using the model to reason, you are trying to improve the model's ability to reason, which means the model itself needs to change.

20:22Does that mean that we're not going to see the commoditization of models? Everyone talks about this commoditization, we're just going to switch between them, it's going to erase the bottom. Does reasoning mean that actually that went happen? No, I actually think that like solving these reasoning skills around the roadmap of every LLM player, I do think there will not be that many LLM players. I think there will probably be might guess somewhere between five to seven long term steady state LLM providers at maximum scale just because of the costs involved. Reasoning is just another expensive thing that these companies have to get right but I think they will all solve it because I think the way to solve reasoning is something that many of us in the field kind of have a pretty strong suspicion on.

21:03What is your strong suspicion on how to solve reasoning? Train a base model, give it access to a wide range of different environments to go solve hard problems in, and have the model try how to solve those problems, and use that and combine that with sort of human input on whether it's doing a good or a bad job, and I think that will solve reason. Why has no one been able to solve memory? People often talk about this, and respectfully, it seems a confusing one to me, because it's like computers have memory anyway. Why in AI is memory such a challenge? That's a good question. Well, I think you can kind of think about memory as being two different things, right?

21:35You kind of have short -term working memory, and then you have long -term memory. I think people have made really good progress on short -term working memory, right? Like, if you could look at Gemini, Gemini's context length is like a million, it might even be more now, I should know quite remember. Like a million tokens, which is so cool, is you can feed it like, giant snippets of video and be like, hey, like write me a step -by -step of like everything the person cooking on this, in this particular video did, and it'll do it. Like, that stuff is insane. That's making good progress, and the reason that's been the hardest for computational reasons, but this sort of longer term memory problem.

22:08This goes back to like another thing that I believe, and that's why I'm slightly less excited about model building, slightly more excited about application developers. Because the underlying thing that everyone's realizing now is that LLMs themselves are not a product. Like, an actual product is this entire software system that uses LLMs in it. So for example, what we should be doing is we should be finding ways in which end application builders can be themselves responsible for how to build and long -term memory about user preferences. Like, I don't know. Let's say I'm building a company that's working on a consumer travel assistant, right?

22:44Like, I should just be able to tell that thing. Hey, like, I freaking hate, this is a true story, by the way. I hate aisle seats because once someone dropped the suitcase on my head in a flight and I got a concussion, never booked me an aisle seat again. That kind of like long -term memory, I think application providers should be able to handle as part of a bigger system. You mentioned five to seven core providers winning. What will separate those that win versus those that don't? Is it purely a game of resources and cash? I think it's a game of how much you accidentally need to win. I think every tier one cloud provider Existentially needs to win here.

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23:17Let's look at the dynamics involved. It's one where as these models get smarter and smarter They kind of become the base computing primitive today the base computing primitive is like nodes on EC2 or like storage, right? But in the future when more and more software is just like the logic of software is actually just handled by by an LLM, nobody cares anymore about the base computing primitive as all you need to do is access these models and compose these models to go solve things for customers. So then whoever controls the model layer controls all of the underlying compute. And so like right now what's happening right is like if you don't have an offering here that is state of the art then you're just going to be cut out of this particular game.

23:57I think it's also actually an area where I think it's really important for companies like Nvidia to go up the stack, right? Like Nvidia clearly killing it right now on chips, but what's happening is every one of the major clouds and every major LLM provider is working on a strategy to have their in -house chips because that way they have better margins. And so then at the end of the day, If you're like a developer or you're like an end user talking to chat GPTN from one of the different providers Do you care whether the backend is an Nvidia chip or an AMD chip or an in -house chip from Google right you don't really care And so therefore like there's like a really key point of the interface of the LLM gives you tremendous leverage on everything downstream So do you think we'll see the ownership of the vertical stack?

24:43We saw Apple talk about their own ships being a prominent part of their new releases Do you think we'll see Nvidia really move into model layer with prominence, but also the model layer move into the chip layer with prominence and both try and eat each other's lunch from different ends of this spectrum? That's my expectation. To me, what's interesting about AI from a business side is it forces the question of what companies or offerings are going to be bundled or integrated and which ones are going to get unbundled. I actually think that there's going to be a really strong vertical integration pressure between model builders and chip makers.

25:15Can you just unpack that for me? Keep going with that thought. I love the topic of chips. We can stay here for a while. It's just, it's so much fun. It's like the most interesting thing that's happened in some time for that industry. So we were just talking a minute ago about how important it is for model makers to control their chips. Because that way, if it really is a scale in resources game, if company A, let's say, choose Google with TPU, TPUs are great, right? With TPU has a 20 % cost advantage compared to company B using chip Y, then Google will just be able to just the better cost of model training will let them go bigger, let them invest more in post training tricks like the ones we were talking about earlier and have an advantage.

25:56And so then company B is like going to be really pressured to go find some way to go do that themselves. Similarly, if you're a chip maker, it's just too easy to be to be commoditized by these in -house efforts if you don't also own something at the model later. So I think that's like vertical and And I think it is it easy. Like when you think about Nvidia and what they do, is it easy for them to be from all of the sites? Is there not such sophistication that actually it's incredibly hard for these people to move into the chip player and take that line? OK, I think I should think we're saying the same thing.

26:27It is incredibly hard. Like Nvidia is killing it. It is incredibly hard, but it is possible. And if the economic returns are high enough, people will do it. So I just think Google TPU is a great example. I'm a massive Nvidia fanboy. So it's incredible. And I think Nvidia has executed so well here. I think we also have the gift props, though, too. I think the TPU team, when I was at Google, was like sub 500 people. And their budget was a shoe -strain budget. And yet, somehow, every generation, they taped out quite good chips that were then used to train Gemini and Paul, and are used by third parties now and all that stuff.

27:00And there is such a strong will to ensure that Google has its own first -party chip. That's the counter example to the perpetual chip dominance I had someone say to me that actually Apple are the kind of the dark horse in the race because they own obviously the consumer and the end device and they can actually run models offline on everyone's device without Reliance on anyone. How do you think and feel about that? Okay, I like to think about AI capabilities in terms of actually to start from the top on this one thinking about the Apple think about like the Apple advantages in this particular space.

27:36I think there's like two areas of like extreme power and leverage that you get in machine learning right now. One is the ability to run smart models for free at the edge and the other one is to have the absolute smartest models possible. And so I think Apple has a massive advantage on the former. And when we go think about like whether that'll be enough, I think that's a really hard question to think through because I kind of think about as like concentric rings of model capability. to give some concrete examples. Like a 1 billion parameter model that is otherwise trained to be a state of the art kind of has like this set of capabilities that it's like perfect at and then it's like kind of okay at the next round up.

28:14So like maybe the very minimal set of capabilities is like is this tweet positive or negative, right? Like you don't need, you don't need GPT 10 to go tell you whether this tweet is positive or negative. Like a pretty small model can do a perfect job at that. And so things like that will always run on the edge. And so then if you're a giant frontier model provider, like you're just not gonna be able to monetize these like tiny skills that are just going to live at the edge. But then conversely, a billion parameter model is probably for some time not going to solve like, be able to create a 3D part for me for my car.

28:44That's probably going to be a bit like GPT -10 problem. And so I think as a result, I think Apple is just going to completely crush at everything that looks like something that's really private, something that's fine tune on your own particular data, but doesn't require massive reasoning capability. And that will all run at the edge. Can I ask you, I was quite shocked by Apple's partnership with OpenAI in terms of the looseness that they tied to it. They continuously said, oh, but we'll actually maintain relationships with others, and they very much left the door open to switching between different providers.

29:15I almost thought it was a negative when I heard it. I'm just intrigued. How did you interpret that when you heard it? I am extremely impressed with OpenAI. I think in terms of their technical delivery, I think the degree to which GP240 was like, I think relatively underhyped, relative to what I think the true scientific improvements have been in that model. That's a pretty big gap. Like I think like we're moving towards a world where we're gonna be training these like universal models that take any input in, right? Audio text, video, you name it, and then generate any output out. And all of humanity's knowledge will be encoded in one of these models.

29:52I need to do 4 .0 is a much bigger step towards that than people realize. So I think that Apple cutting that deal with OpenAI, I think at least part of it is a recognition that I think OpenAI is on a different trajectory compared to others on actual model progress. But at the same time, it also really strongly hints at a commoditized future. To the same extent today, as a consumer, I no longer care whether my computer, my desktop at home is powered by an AMD or Intel CPU, trying to create a way in which Apple owns the interface and Apple owns the end customer and then the like big brain LLM smarts is just like one hot swatable thing is brilliant for them.

30:31What do you think the NSA does for the foundational model there before we move on to the application layer? Like did they just get bought you know you've got a couple of cool ones which is really anthropic, Mr. Rale who have raised a lot of money billions and will not have the resources to compete continuously in the tens of billions of dollars needed. What happens to this layer? I think what happens is all of the tier one clouds will have their own effort that will do well because it has to do well And they will do whatever it takes to go and sure that they have the capital and Data flywheel and talent to go do that then I think for the independent companies and I would say that Adept is very different because we're what we do is we sell an actual and user facing agent to enterprises which is a very different business model than selling models to developers, but companies that sell models to developers will either need to effectively be the first -party effort of one of these big clouds, or they have a short window between now and quantization to build such a big economic flywheel that they can afford to stay independent.

31:35How could you build such a big economic flywheel, just so I understand, like an amazing enterprise go -to -market that generates 5 billion of free cashflow? I think you would have to look like something like that. I think that right now that's why I think of the companies of the independent foundation model companies besides adept I'm more excited about places like open AI because they have chat GPT to help do that Whereas I think if you're a pure play model seller. I think it's very difficult Would you say adept is a foundation model company or would you say that actually you are not? How do you think about the positioning?

32:09Yes, we're really really focused on this particular problem that we're trying to solve We're trying to build an AI agent that you can delegate arbitrary work tasks to and so then everything we do stems from that So what we are not doing is we are not trying to just train foundation models to sell them to other people We're doing is we're building like a very vertically integrated stack going back to our previous discussion of where well vertical integration happened versus not I do think that in the agent space It's extremely important that you own the entire stack from what is the end user interface?

32:40I think like we're talking about the Apple example earlier owning the interface gives you tremendous leverage in this era of AI to How do you make agents that are reliable enough to be used at work all the way down to what needs to happen to the foundation modeling later to enable this whole end -to -end system to be maximum performance? That's what we do. It's this vertical slice. How do you think about the variation of agent requirements based on a power industry basis? Do you know what I mean? That's so varying. It's completely different. Yes, that's what our advantage is is like You know, we get this question all the time, right?

33:08With the depth trying to, like, we want to be the system of record for workflows and enterprises. Like any employee at any large companies, we've got to teach a depth, hey, like, here's how I do this particular thing, right? Like, here's how I handle fetching all the data for an insurance claim, right? And this should be to show a depth that and then a depth should be to do it for them. That generalization, all of those edge cases and variability is why the only way to solve that is to have vertical integration of model with use case. And it's also why I think we'll do better than companies that are just focused on a vertical, like a particular narrow problem, because I was talking to Parag who used to be the CEO of Twitter, we were just hanging out the other day and he's like, dude, every enterprise workflow is an edge case and he's absolutely right.

33:49And that's why you need to do the chosen. What does he mean by that? Can you unpack that for me? I mean, just even looking at something as simple as I want to add a new lead to Salesforce, right? Let's go outside and find 10 different companies who all use Salesforce and look at how they've got it configured and it all looks completely different from each other. Is this not what RPA was always meant to be? I'm friends with Daniel Dynes from UI Path. Wonderful dude. I was like, this is what RPA was. So can you help me understand the distinction between traditional RPA, which is what we've seen with UI Path in this new era of agent that we see today?

34:23Yeah, totally. I mean, there's a good question. It's actually a question that used to cause me a lot of heartburn because I found it so hard to explain to people why agents were going to be different than RPA. Best analogy I've got is RPA is very useful for high volume tasks that always look the same. The analogy that I would give would be RPA is a little bit like, you know, when you go to a factory floor and there's robots roaming around everywhere, what those robots do is there's like a literally yellow line painted on the floor. And the robots like follow that line, they go from cell to cell and station to station and they pick up stuff.

34:54But what agents are, agents are meant to be constantly thinking and re -evaluating and planning at every step to solve your goal, and it's much more like full self -driving. The difference in utility between those two things is fairly large. Of course, there's many areas where you don't want something that can have variability, and therefore you should use RPA. I just think in five to ten years, people are going to use their computers by giving them high -level goals. They will, the largest enterprises in the world, run RPA and agent -based systems alongside each other. I think so. Yeah. But why are PA players not best placed to provide an agent solution to existing customers?

35:30I think it's just really fundamentally disruptive to their business model. The way that a big corporation uses UI Path, right, is like there's a big plans where in a process transformation, they need to be done. Sometimes like an in -accenture or something comes in and then maps out what the processes are like. Sometimes what the process discovery thing. And then our PA engineers go and build those workflows and then six to nine months later, you hit play on the stain that then automates I mean voice processing every night or something like that. Like this new model of like you just put an agent in there and the agent observes what the end user does to go do that job and then that becomes like a thing that you can then just invoke with natural language is like really disruptive to the business model.

36:11I think that the best way to run circles around and convinces to do something that's a different business model than what they have. How's your business model different? Well, so basically the way that we're doing things is we are addressing use cases initially that are really painful to get our foot in the door, but we're really focused on how do we make the end user be able to teach at any new capability. Like, I should be able to dump in my standard operating procedure for this new thing my team does, or I should be able to show a depth like 10 times and give it corrections on how I enroll a new nurse into a healthcare portal in the US, and then the model should be able to do that for me.

36:46And basically, we're working on something that's ultimately very self -serve over time. Everyone speaks about kind of we're going to sell the work and not the tools and the end of price per seat and we're moving to a consumption based pricing model. Do you agree with that statement? Do you think we're all slightly over -amp sizing like the end of price per seat and how do you feel about this kind of fundamental shift in business model and pricing that AI could bring about? I think in places where definitely we're going to see that become true but I actually think knowledge work, the most valuable things to do will not be priced that way.

37:20And here's why. I think that the definition of price per work assumes repetiveness, commoditization, cookie cutter, no creativity. I think what these AI systems are going to do, especially the AI agents are going to do, we are basically going to give people the ability to go do new things and have way more leverage on their time and give them more opportunities to be creative. And so then ultimately what we're building is like a co -pilot or a teammate and co -pilots and teammates don't charge you price for work They like you really pay them based on their ability to augment your ability to go do new things, right?

37:51Like I'm just saying that you mentioned that the kind of co -pilot approach I add the guests on the show say that the co -pilot and I think it was miles from to a benchmark or whatnot thrive So that she co -pilot says an incumbent strategy is leveraging existing distribution and it's an incumbent strategy Is that fair or do you think that she's not giving due credit to the co -pilot approach? I think both these two things can be true. I think the co -pilot are a great incumbent strategy because it lets them morph their existing software business model and something that kind of looks the same while getting in on the AI thing.

38:22But even separately from that, I just think where are these systems going to be most useful? I just feel like everybody in this field has this vision that AI is going to take all jobs. The pricing by work thing is just a corollary of AI is going to take all jobs. right? Because then it's like, all right, maybe you price by work on invoices. And then next month you price by work on like consulting decks. And then before you know it, you price by work on like being AI CEO of like David Co or something like that, right? Like that's not, I don't think that this is how this is going to play out. I think the way this is going to play out is that where we're going to have is we're going to have humans fundamentally be the drivers of these agentic systems that basically give everybody a tremendous amount of leverage on their own creativity.

39:03And how can that be built without a co -pilot style approach? It's like my question. What does that do to the org structures of teams, David? Do you think, does this mean much, much smaller companies? How do you think that actually plays out? Actually, this is something I'm going to steal from our angel investor, Scott Delsky, who just thought about this so much. He always calls it like this collapsing the talent stack thing. And the idea is basically that projects in teams where the same person is simultaneously the PM and the designer and or the engineer or the go -to -market person or the marketer or whatever.

39:33The more that those different skill sets are smushed in the same person, the faster that thing moves and the more effective the thing becomes. So I think what it's going to do is it's going to make people, humans at work, much more like generalists. And it's going to have like, giving people a larger and larger scope over various different areas or different functions today, while they ultimately supervise a cohort of AI co -pilots that are the specialists. One thing I did want to touch on was when we think about the rollout, I think we overestimate enterprise adoption. One, are we still in experimental enterprise adoption budgets or do you think we are moving into core enterprise adoption budgets?

40:09This is a very, very good question and I'm, Harry, we should rewatch this podcast in 10 years and see how we feel. But I think, you know, when we talk about, yeah, I'm so freaking broad. It's a little bit like us asking maybe in the early days of the internet, that generalized thing about the internet as well. Like it's just I think there are some use cases that are clearly hitting PMF within an enterprise But for the most part like just when we go to enterprises to go to go to go sell them stuff Like they've got so much stuff that's still on prem They've still got workflows running on mainframes and it's it's 2024 and so I think even if technologies like cloud Which we probably look at as it from startup lenses being so freaking mature still doesn't have full Full adoption and enterprises is like I think that stuff is really is really interesting And I think as a result, we're going to be on this adoption curve for enterprise AI for a very, very long time.

40:58So we are still in the experimental budget phase. I think the majority of it is extremely experimental. One of the things we do, for example, is we really try to not sign deals that are coming out of experiment budget because we want quality remedial basically. Do you think we gross the overestimate enterprise adoption in the short term and underestimate it in the long term? Yeah, I think it's true for most new technology, but definitely here. I like and it shorts the C .M .a. Meta told me in recently released a piece about kind of hype cycles in new technology and actually he states is kind of concern that AI will Replicate autonomous driving in the way that we got so excited about 10 years ago.

41:35Everyone's gonna be unemployed 8 million truck drivers We're all fucked and then you've got to love your mother when she messes and you don't have it on do not disturb Yeah, yeah You're never too cool for your mother. But my question to you is, are we gonna see that similar plateauing where for 10 years actually, kind of autonomous cars didn't feel like it was progressing? How do you think about that? So I feel like in self -driving, what happened was there was an aha moment where you could get the thing to work at all. And then you're like, okay, well now it works 60 % of the time. How do we get this in 99 .999, 99, 99 % of the time?

42:13Every day you show up to work and just play whack -a -mole on what's not working. and you just like hope and pray that this converges to that like 99 .9999. That's not true for AI right now. That's not true for specifically what I'm about to say is only applicable to building smarter and smarter models and agentic systems that ultimately help you do work. That's the thing that I'm trying to talk about. For building that, that's not how the underlying dynamics are right now. Like every day we go to work and there's like actually brand new scientific things we want to try that just dramatically improve the performance of the model.

42:45Some of those bets don't work, and some of those bets really work. The reasoning that we talked about earlier is an example of one. I think another example of one is this universal multi -modality that you put you for O is those breakthroughs are visible. And as a result, what I think has a hope of preventing this from just being a hype cycle that falls flat like AB is that those shoes are yet to drop. And as they do, the capabilities of these models are going to continue to improve. And on top of that, there's not a technology that you don't, that you need to get to that level reliability before it can be deployed.

43:15It's already deployed today. Speaking of deployment, I think, and the kind of enterprise adoption, I tweeted actually that you would see AI services companies, people who help in the implementation of AI and large enterprises, be bigger than the model providers themselves in terms of revenue. And we've seen that actually come out as being true. I had some famous people call me an idiot, which actually made me quite pleased when those revenue numbers were revealed. How do you feel about implementation provide us, AI services providers being bigger than the actual providers in that's five years.

43:44Do you think that it's right that the biggest players to come out of this cycle will be the AI services providers? You know, I don't think so because I think the third bucket of like economic upside is still early and I think that bucket is the companies that then turn the use cases that have product market fit into repeatable products. Right now, right, imagine you're very large company X, right, and you need capability Y, and then you've got the base model over here, right? That's pretty darn smart. GPD4 or Gemini or whatever, right? This is giant golf in the middle. In every one of these cases, the first people that go fill that golf are like sort of consulting e -service providers, right?

44:21But then the moment that golf starts getting filled, you start seeing, ah, okay, like this is the really useful thing for an enterprise, then people just go productize that thing and that becomes a startup. And so then that becomes eventually a company that's a conduit between the base intelligence and the customer. So today that might be true for services, but I feel like a lot of these things will be turned into generalizable products. And then when they do, those companies will then be the real economic winners. One of the concerns that I have, I have two other concerns, but I want to touch on both of them with you because they keep me up at night and I have enough wrinkles, David.

44:49Regulation, Europe, you know, specializes in it. One concern that I have is that we could regulate ourselves into oblivion around data usage, data collection, and actually we don't see the progression of these models in the AI in a way that we want to. How do you feel about that? How likely is that? What would you like to see happen in regulatory environments? I think my main concern right now is actually one of regulatory capture. In the same vein we were talking about earlier about how there will be only a few sort of frontier model companies that can exist at a state. I think the move to go pull up the ladder behind the Ms.

45:21Arready beginning. A lot of makers don't really understand this technology at all, and so their default instinct is sort of listen to the most credible source, and usually those credible sources have alternate ulterior motives here. So what happens in that case? I think that what happens is that it becomes harder for the general field to go build on open source. It will become harder for new companies to get started that have new AI ideas they want to go train and scale up. I think what really happens is just another concentration of power moment. You mentioned kind of the ability to build on open.

45:51The other concern that I have is that we had Alex Wang on the show and his statement was AI is more powerful than nuclear weapons and in the hands of the wrong people, especially AGI, it could be probably the most lethal weapon used ever, and for that reason we should probably have more closed systems. How do you think about that debate of open versus closed and whether for some of the most crucial decision making AI systems it should be closed? I think two things. One, I think the broader set of concerns about use and misuse and safety are extremely important. And I think that like what was a good thing about all of this is that people are having these discussions more openly, which I really strongly appreciate.

46:29I mean with a lot of these systems you can already see like clearer ways to go to go misuse them right like Spend up a bunch of servers take the best code model you have out there Use them to go try to find vulnerabilities and software systems like that's if that's already happening It's gonna really start kicking in a gear. So like things like that. I think make me very concerned at the same time I think that like a GI is just a really difficult thing to reason about because the way that many people define it is like almost defining it as in infinity. And like, reasoning about infinity is this really hard, because you multiply infinity by 0 .000001%, and that's still infinity.

47:03And so I think it's a very brain breaking thing. And so I think a better way to go look at it is to look at the path dependence, like how will this technology actually be developed in the next five years? And I think in the next five years, open will always lag closed. And because open will always lag closed, because open just as fewer resources behind them and fewer incentives for people to go make things to be open as these things become more and more expensive. I view open really as a way for the rest of the field to keep up with the biggest incumbents, and therefore I think it's actually pretty darn important.

47:33You mentioned kind of AGI being kind of infinity there in people's minds. You said before to me that the last step is human computer interaction and that's the last ingredient to AGI. Before we do a quick file, what did you mean by that? I didn't get that one me, though. Okay. So what I mean by that is that I personally find a world in which increasingly generally intelligent systems have run around with their own agency and goals and not involve what humans most care about to be not a world that I really want to live in. And I think because of that, this goes back to what you were saying about like selling AI by work versus as a as a software tool, right?

48:08Like I would much rather live in a world where we have sort of these like AI teammates and assistants that we interact with instead. And then I think the question becomes how do you find the right interface between smarter and smarter AI systems and people and How that interface is defined actually changes a lot about what training data you collect How can humans align these systems towards the preferences of what humans want also ultimately like how these models are even built and what their architectures are and so in a Weird way the way the field is moving is let's make model smarter and let's make use cases started and then let's go put them in people's hands And then let's figure out what this means for people It's kind of this waterfall sequential method, which I don't think is a very good way to develop the technology I think it should start back from ultimately how do how should humans use these things and then create the whole solution And to end that way and so that's why the HCI problem by people Disarranged spending enough time thinking about like chat is obviously not is obviously not it You mentioned that kind of the wrong way to think about it What questions do you think people are not asking enough that they should be asking more?

49:06questions along the lines of like as these models get smarter and smarter and they sort of know more and more about the world and have more and more ability to do things in the world. How do you interact with them? How do you supervise them? How do you give them corrections and teach them to be more aligned with what you want? Questions like that. Listen, I've peppered you with questions. I want to move into a quick fire. So I say a short statement. You give me your immediate thoughts. Does that sound okay? Yeah, sounds great. So what if you changed your mind on most in the last 12 months. It's actually a little bit of what we were talking about earlier.

49:37I actually think agents and chat pods are going to speciate and turn into two different products. How does that look? I think it's going to look like you're going to have these rich interactions with these increasingly smart systems that can do things on your behalf. And then you're going to go have other systems that you talk to for therapeutic or fun use cases. What's the biggest misconception people have today of the next 10 years of AI? Biggest misconception is that this is just going to be something that at every step takes another human capability and fully automates it. Like the implicit goal of AGI right now is replace human work, but like so much of human work, like I just don't think it will be neatly captured by AI, and instead it's going to be, it's just like AI would be a tool to level up human intelligence.

50:18What's your vision for the future of agents? If everything goes to plan, agents in five years time are dot dot dot. Agents in five years time, I mean, it's kind of going to be like a non -invasive of like brain computer interface, basically. I think that's when an agent will be. All of us are gonna be up leveled. It's gonna feel like the same transition from like, DOS slash command line to the GUI, but from GUI to agents. We're gonna interact with them at a high level at the level of goals. And they're basically just gonna let us, I think, have like, basically like, new kinds of thoughts, like the ability to go, like, reason at one level of strash and beyond what we all do today.

50:52You're writing in pre -mortem on why that does not happen. Why agents are not that in five years time? What is the most probable reason why that does not happen? I think one way it won't happen is that fundamentally agents are a reframing of where, of how software is bundled. Today we bundle software in these functional ways. You've got notion or Google docs for your docs, and then you've got Salesforce for Sales, and then you've got Workday for HR and all of the stuff. right but the work that we do fundamentally spans all these different domains and an agency should bridge those domains otherwise you can't become a higher level thing.

51:31So if we're locked into like end walled gardens by incumbents and that vision will not happen. This sounds super awful VC mindset but when you look at like UI past today being like a six seven billion dollar company, do you not think there's bigger opportunities to go after? That took 17 year maybe more 19 years and it's a $7 billion company with billions in revenue. You're a super smart, super ambitious guy. That feels like a lot and a long time for actually a value capture that if done well. I think the question is, what percentage of work done today is addressable by RPA? It's very little, but what's the percentage of work done today that's addressable by agents?

52:10It's like 1 ,000X that, 10 ,000X that? I don't know, something in that order of magnitude. It's just that it's a very different market. It's like saying, should we work on self -driving, when self -driving didn't exist, and then looking at the market for those autonomous rovers and warehouses? Final one for you. What question are you never asked that you think you should be asked? I mean, I feel like you did a great job of covering so many interesting things. I think you've got all the good stuff. Does that mean I've done my research well enough? You've done your research very well. David, honestly, it shows like this and why I loved doing this.

52:41So thank you so much for being so brilliant. I appreciate you putting up with my lack of smiles but this has been fantastic. No, you're doing awesome. The fact that you're able to do this after a wisdom tooth removal is insane. I had so much fun. I thought you asked great questions across business and tech. And yeah, I'm excited to see how this whole place out from here. I have to say, I really do feel like I just have the best job in the world. I basically get paid to speak to the most smart and incredible people in their field, like David in that episode. And I get the credit for most of what they say, which is a brilliant business model.

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From the publisher

David Luan is the CEO and Co-Founder at Adept, a company building AI agents for knowledge workers. To date, David has raised over $400M for the company from Greylock, Andrej Karpathy, Scott Belsky, Nvidia, ServiceNow and WorkDay. Previously, he was VP of Engineering at OpenAI, overseeing research on language, supercomputing, RL, safety, and policy and where his teams shipped GPT, CLIP, and DALL-E. He led Google's giant model efforts as a co-lead of Google Brain.

In Today's Episode with David Luan We Discuss:

1. The Biggest Lessons from OpenAI and Google Brain:

  • What did OpenAI realise that no one else did that allowed them to steal the show with ChatGPT?
  • Why did it take 6 years post the introduction of transformers for ChatGPT to be released?
  • What are 1-2 of David's biggest lessons from his time leading teams at OpenAI and Google Brain?

2. Foundation Models: The Hard Truths:

  • Why does David strongly disagree that the performance of foundation models is at a stage of diminishing returns?
  • Why does David believe there will only be 5-7 foundation model providers? What will separate those who win vs those who do not?
  • Does David believe we are seeing the commoditization of foundation models?
  • How and when will we solve core problems of both reasoning and memory for foundation models?

3. Bunding vs Unbundling: Why Chips Are Coming for Models:

  • Why does David believe that Jensen and Nvidia have to move into the model layer to sustain their competitive advantage?
  • Why does David believe that the largest model providers have to make their own chips to make their business model sustainable?
  • What does David believe is the future of the chip and infrastructure layer?

4. The Application Layer: Why Everyone Will Have an Agent:

  • What is the difference between traditional RPA vs agents?
  • Why is agents a 1,000x larger business than RPA?
  • In a world where everyone has an agent, what does the future of work look like?
  • Why does David disagree with the notion of "selling the work" and not the tool?
  • What is the business model for the next generation of application layer AI companies?

 

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20VC: Why Foundation Model Performance is Not Diminishing But Models Are Commoditising, Why Nvidia Will Enter the Model Space and Models Will Enter the Chip Space & The Right Business Model for AI Software with David Luan, Co-Founder @ AdeptThe Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch · 56 min
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