A “Super” El Niño May Be Coming - Here’s What It Means

0:00No one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets. They go for a darn good pizza. Lately, though, the shop's been quiet, so Hank decides to bring back the$1 slice. He asks Copilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs and help him see if he can afford it. Copilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the dollar slice work. Now Hank's has a line out the door. Hank makes the pizza. Copilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more at m365copilot.com slash work. Global weather agencies have declared that El Nino has begun, and models show it is more likely than not to be a super El Nino, or even what is sometimes called a Godzilla El Nino.

0:41The climate pattern boosts extreme weather around the world and could lead to record high temperatures. Yeah, El Nino's a natural climate event, but global heating will amplify the impacts and it could also make the phenomenon itself stronger, much stronger and more far-reaching. From New Scientist, this is the world, the universe and us. I'm Dr Penny Sarche. And I'm Dr Owen Hooper. Now, I just said El Nino is this natural climate event, but our reporter Michael O 'Page has been reporting on studies recently showing that because of the climate crisis, the impacts of El Nino, even standard El Ninos, will be worse.

1:17Yes, the computer simulations that Michael reported on predict a shift to much stronger El Nino-La Nina extremes, as well as an intensification of impacts on remote regions, but also the Atlantic and in particular Europe, which currently gets off relatively lightly. But let's hear a bit more about the developing conditions right now and the recent announcement that an El Nino event has begun. We're joined by reporter Alec Loon and climate scientist Emily Black of the University of Reading. Welcome to the podcast, Emily. Can you perhaps recap for us, first off, what's happening in a regular El Nino event?

1:54OK, well, during a regular El Nino event, the trade winds, which normally are easterly, weaken or even reversed. And this leads to water sort of backing up in the eastern Pacific. And what happens then is this releases extra heat into the atmosphere and also perturbs the atmospheric circulation. And the key thing is that although this starts off in the Pacific, that El Nino affects the whole tropics and even with some effects further afield. All right, well, yeah, we're going to want to get to those further afield effects because that's something a bit odd, I think. Well, it's becoming a bit odd.

2:32And what about this super El Nino? Because we've heard there's a 63 % chance that it will be a super El Nino. And that's not a scientific term. And certainly Godzilla is not a scientific term. Definitely not a scientific term. So what does it have to do to be, you know, called a super El Nino? Well, as you say, it's not a scientific term. So as it's not really a formal term, there's not really a formal definition of what a super El Nino is. But I think that what people are referring to is one of the really stronger events, the sort of events we only really usually see once in every kind of 20 years or so, whereas a normal El Nino would tend to happen every sort of five years, or even maybe every sort of three to five years or so.

3:16A super El Nino doesn't happen that often. I think that it pretty much coincides with being in sort of very strong conditions so over roughly over say two degrees of warming warmer than usual conditions than in the Pacific. Okay so that really is a big one if a normal El Nino is above 0.5 degrees Celsius then a super El Nino really is quite a big step up. Four times more. Yeah what about the predictions, Emily, that global heating itself is making El Nino's worse and maybe more frequent? Well, this is actually, this is a very interesting and developing area of research. There's not really a consensus in whether El Nino itself is becoming more frequent as a result of climate change.

4:00I have seen some reports of this and I've seen some reports saying the opposite. So I think that this is something which is still really up for discussion. But the one thing which I think there's more agreement on is the effects of El Nino are becoming more severe because you're adding warming, quite a lot of extra warming into an already warmer climate. I wondered if when we say that El Ninos under climate change are having more intense impacts, is that because the El Ninos themselves are becoming more intense under climate change? Or is it just that we're having an El Nino on top of what is already a heat stressed and more vulnerable world?

4:36It's really because you're having, it's not because the El Nino itself, as in the ocean atmosphere phenomenon, what I was just talking about with the trade winds and the warm water in the Pacific and so on, it's not because that's obviously becoming more severe, but it's the actual meteorological impacts of that are becoming more severe. Because, for example, under global warming, the atmosphere can hold a lot more water. And that means that when we have in some regions like East Africa, which experience much rainier weather during El Nino, each of those rainy events is that bit stronger, or tends to be that bit stronger.

5:10And similarly, we're releasing a lot of extra heat into the world, which has already been warmed by global warming. So that means that the actual heat itself, the actual hot weather itself is that much hotter. And also that the atmosphere as the world warms, the atmosphere over the continents is sort of becoming thirstier is it's getting warmer and it can hold more water. And that means that as the atmosphere gets thirsty, it'll tend to sort of suck up more water from the soil and during sort of warm summers. I want to talk about, I'll ask you about the financial impact so that we don't sort of, just so that we keep an eye on that because, you know, we do want to talk about all this meteorological and climatic influences that are happening.

5:57But the hotter it gets, the worse the impact financially, the damage that it's causing. So we already know from a study a couple of years ago that each super El Nino causes trillions of dollars in damage. So if we do get one this year, and it's looking more than likely that we will, we can expect trillions of dollars in economic damages. So similar to previous events. I'm not an economist. And so I can't give you probably better figures for this than you're reading from other economists. But yes, I mean, these financial effects are really felt through the global impact of El Nino. And exactly what any of these impacts are varies a lot from event to event.

6:45It's not just, I should have said this earlier perhaps, but it's not just how strong the El Nino is and how warm the Pacific is, but it's also things like exactly where this warming is located, what the other aspects of the background state of the atmosphere are, and so on, which determine these impacts and the eventual economic effects. I wondered if we could talk about when we're likely to start feeling some of the effects of the El Nino that's begun here, for example, in the UK or Western Europe. The weather has been very strange so far this year, but do we know if that's related? The weather so far that we've had, like the heat wave last month and so on, is probably not related directly to the El Nino.

7:25This was much more about local, sort of synoptic weather conditions over Europe and the Atlantic. So I would say that because the El Nino is only just building up now, that probably the effects we've seen so far are less directly related to El Nino. El Nino tends to peak in the winter and you tend to see effects really starting from the summer with some of the effects on the monsoon as the El Nino develops and peaking in the autumn and winter and then sometimes even persisting into the next year. So we'll expect to see some effects this year and then moving on into the first half of 2027. Although, again, the duration of these effects can be variable.

8:10One of the sort of really fascinating aspects is it's this Pacific phenomenon that spreads all over the world. Alec, I wondered if you could take us through how El Nino ends up impacting those of us in Europe when it starts off so far away. Yeah, it's through something called teleconnections. Essentially, the atmospheric circulation is extremely complex. and something that happens far away can propagate through the entire atmosphere. But the exact way it does that and the kind of eventual end effect can change a lot when it's doing that just because it's going through this huge atmosphere with all these other different weather phenomena that are going on.

8:56With the UK, it's very far from the tropical Pacific. And so the connection with El Nino is very uncertain. I was talking with some guys from the Met office about this, and it tends to come down to a couple different – essentially, the El Nino is propagating through the atmosphere, but it has to – it's coming from the Pacific, and then it has to go through the entire Atlantic before the effects reach the UK. And there's a lot of weather patterns and climate phases in the Atlantic as well. El Nino is a climate phase in the Pacific, but there are a couple in the Atlantic that are playing a role and influencing its effects while they're on the way to the UK.

9:36So two things. So the first thing that we were talking about with the med office was El Nino tends to shift. We talked about the water, the warm water kind of sloshing back from the West Pacific to the Eastern Pacific. And that warm water takes weather with it as well because there's warm rising air rising through the atmosphere above that warm water. And that causes low pressure systems and rainfall. And so you have this kind of shift of the low pressure of this low pressure center in the Pacific eastward. And that can actually propagate through the rest of the atmosphere through something called a Rosby wave or a planetary wave.

10:18And this is similar to the jet stream. It's kind of this this kind of meandering wave across around the globe of a difference, a gradient in temperature and pressure. And so as that kind of makes its way towards the Atlantic, it can interact with something called the East Atlantic pattern, which is essentially a big low pressure system just to the west of the UK. And so if that El Nino effect intensifies the low pressure to the west of the UK, then that can really, it can kink the jet stream and just send a bunch of warm air from the south and storms from the south directly into the UK. And so that's the first impact that can happen on the UK from El Nino is a very wet, warm, stormy autumn and early winter.

11:08It doesn't always happen. The East Atlantic pattern can go negative. It can become weaker rather than stronger with El Nino. But when that coincides, if El Nino deepens that pattern, then we'll get a very wet, warm, stormy autumn and early winter in the UK and Western Europe as well. But it does also flick the switch sort of the other way and give us a colder, drier one sometimes. So the other main impact with El Nino in the UK that we were talking about was it's possible during El Nino that you can have a colder, it tends to be that you can have a colder, drier late winter in the UK. So warmer, wetter, early winter.

11:50And then in the late winter, you can see a very cold, dry weather pattern. And that's because of a different climate phase, a different but related climate phase in the North Atlantic called the North Atlantic Oscillation. Basically, you know, think of Iceland. We know Iceland as a very stormy, rainy kind of place. And that's because there's a big low pressure system that just sits over Iceland typically. Meanwhile, think of the Azores. We think of that as a very sunny, calm place. And that's because there's a high pressure system sitting over the Azores. And the difference between those two pressure systems, the gradient between the low pressure over Iceland and the high pressure over the Azores, that is called the North Atlantic oscillation.

12:33And so when that's very strong and that gradient, that pressure difference is very strong, then that's what basically fuels the westerly winds that typically buffet the UK. And so when that's strong, you'll have a lot of weather coming to the UK, a lot of warmth and storminess and wetness coming to the UK. But sometimes during El Nino, that difference in pressure can actually weaken. And then the westerly winds grow weaker, and you can actually have cold air from Siberia, from the Arctic, kind of washing back into the UK because the westerly winds are displaced. And instead, you're getting this kind of these patterns from the east, and they can bring this cold, dry air.

13:17And so that's what we've seen with a couple El Ninos in the past, a very cold, dry, late winter in the UK. This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. Emily, is there a sense that everything's kind of up for grabs at the moment?

13:54because I know the AMOC is something completely different, but we've talked a lot on the podcast about how there's so much worry that this Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, how that's being perturbed, and that's because of global heating. And we're seeing so much chaos, extra chaos in the system. Emily, is there a sense that we're in this real changeover period where things are happening that didn't used to happen. We're getting more super El Ninos, they're getting more intense, different things are happening. And that's a really interesting point in that I think that one of the things which we're seeing as a climate warms and we get more overall power into the global atmosphere ocean system is that we're seeing increases in extremes.

14:49And this is both because we're on a higher temperature background state, which means that just because of that, we're likely to see our very hot years of 20 or 30 years ago are now just normally hot years now. And also just because of the extra power in the climate system, we are seeing a faster moving hydrological cycle with more extreme rainfall and more extreme droughts. It's obviously quite difficult to pin down exactly when it will kick off and what effects we would expect. But we do know that it's coming and there's a chance that it could cause trillions of damage. So how do we start preparing now?

15:30Food security is a real concern, isn't it, Alec? Yeah, so, you know, we've been talking about impacts on the UK, but, you know, and those are kind of uncertain and they can happen or they might not happen. But because of all those different things going on at the Atlantic we were talking about. But worldwide, the impacts of El Nino can be much clearer. So a much clearer impact of El Nino is, for instance, in the southern United States, you tend to get very wet, warm conditions. And alternatively, a very clear impact of El Nino, something we see El Nino event after El Nino event, is a hotter, drier weather in South Asia and Southeast Asia, spreading all the way down to Australia.

16:17Very hot, very dry weather, risk of drought, risk of wildfires. And this can be extremely disruptive for some of the main commodities that we consume in the world, right? So you think about things like coffee and chocolate. Those are growing in tropical areas. It's not just South Asia. It's also South America in parts of Africa where these kind of hot, dry conditions can be exacerbated by El Nino. And so then that can really hit commodity prices because it can disrupt. It's hard to grow a good coffee crop or a good chocolate crop in a year if there's drought going on. And the one I think that has really been raised that seems concerning is if drought hits South Asia, India is one of the major exporters of rice in the world.

17:08And rice, of course, that's a crop you need water to grow. And so if there's drought in India and India has to restrict its major exports of rice because it's looking out to make sure that its own people have enough rice to eat, Then you could see rice scarcity in other countries, or at least rice getting more expensive. So that's one major food security risk, I think, that El Nino brings. Emily, I'm just wondering, when you're talking to policymakers and politicians, do you, I mean, you have to be quite circumspect, I expect, about what you tell them, because you're a scientist and, you know, there's so much uncertainty.

17:45Well, I wonder if that's frustrating for you, but what sort of advice do you give them? I think that at the moment we are obviously building up to El Nino and a lot of great opportunities like this to talk about the weather and to talk about what's happening. And that's great. It always makes our job with talking to policymakers easier if there's something interesting going on. But in general, particularly in the tropics, a lot of my work is focused. Just being ready for and prepared for variability in the climate is a key thing. And what I'm often when I'm talking to policymakers, not just in the UK, but also in Africa, it's about having early action protocols ready so that as different actions can be put in place and different types of advice can be given to farmers in any year as conditions develop and as we watch the forecast.

18:35And I think that being that sort of preparedness is really key in any year. Because extreme weather itself is bad for crops because people are growing them in a climate where the crops are well adapted to and so on. So almost any severe perturbation can have bad effects. It's not just about drought. It's also about like very high rainfall in East Africa, for example, can affect coffee growth as well as droughts in South America. So just being ready for climate extremes and for putting the kind of policies and action protocols and funding those protocols, I think is key. And that's the message which I try and share with policymakers whenever I can.

19:17But are we ready, let alone in this country, but in poorer countries? But also what sort of preparations practically would you be able to make if you're a farmer and you're wondering what crop to grow because you don't know what's going to happen? Part of being ready is just about having the right information to make weather sensitive decisions. And that's about being able to share weather forecasts and not even the seasonal forecasts, but even just sharing weather forecasts a few days ahead so that you can plant at the optimal time. because if, for example, you're going to have a very, you're having, it's much more likely to be a drought, it then becomes even more important than ever, say in Southern Africa, where you have quite a short growing season that you plant as soon as you can.

20:02So having the right weather information for that. And in terms of sort of deciding what crops to grow, a lot of these decisions can be influenced by seasonal forecasts, but it's also just about really understanding your local climate and your local climate risk and putting in sort of holistic agricultural support programs which can allow farmers to make the best possible return when they're dealing with very uncertain information because you're quite right because these people are extremely vulnerable to any sort of fluctuation in the weather and change in the climate. And can you just say something about the idea that you sometimes hear still it said that El Nino it's a natural phenomenon and you know people talk about it like the weather's always changed let's not forget that we are in a climate crisis we are having these extremes of weather fluctuations that are affecting crops and floods and droughts and wildfires so can you say something about that because i don't want that part of it to get lost at all in the idea that we're just talking about this extreme natural event?

21:11Well, as we said before, this is an extreme natural event. But when we have these extreme natural events already on top of a warming climate and a climate which is being changed by anthropogenic actions, that means that any of the actual day-to-day extremes that you're seeing are that much more severe. So I think that essentially the climate change puts us at a lot more risk from natural variability. So something which like an El El Nino, I don't know, in the 19th century or something, would have had a lot less severe impact meteorologically than this forthcoming El Nino. And that might be the case, even if the El Nino, if the one coming turns out to be a weaker event, let alone if it turns into the most extreme predictions that we're seeing from some of the modelling centres into really being a very large event.

22:04I guess, Ferdinand, we know, but it's not often talked about, that food prices have already gone up because of climate change. So that's just another illustration, isn't it? That, okay, it might be a natural event that we have this kind of, it amps up many gears every now and then. It's a kind of shifting baseline of that, isn't it? Yes, exactly. You kind of ignore that we have already, it's easy to ignore that we've already found ourselves in a new normal that's changing all the time. And I think we've lost a lot of resilience, right? I mean, when we talk about farmers in Africa, let's say, I mean, if they're having to deal with hotter temperatures, more frequent droughts, more extreme weather due to climate change, right, then they don't have as much resilience as they did.

22:45They've had to already, you know, invest extra money or invest extra time to get their crops to grow each year. So then when an El Nino comes along and, you know, slams into them, they just have that much less resources, that many fewer resources to deal with it, right? because they've already expended so many resources dealing with the warming climate. So I think that our resilience is being strained. And so even a natural climate oscillation like El Nino can really have a different effect because we've already been strained to the brink, so to speak. Emily, I wondered if just as we sort of look ahead, we know that we would expect the peak effects to be towards the end of this year.

23:27I mean, that's why it's called El Nino, isn't it? It's around Christmas time, the boy. But for those people, El Nino does really capture people's imaginations. People like to watch it, know how it's developing. What's the next big thing to look out for? Will there be a point where we're more certain about how it's going to play out? Or when we start to see more of the effects, what can you give us a heads up about? The sort of things to really look out for are, first of all, is if we get a spring weather in Europe, that actually has a direct impact on the summer. even if we're not, because the soils persist in there, the amount of moisture they're holding, you know, persists for several months.

24:05So even if the El Nino is sort of tailing off and we're going into more neutral conditions, as may happen or may not happen in the spring and summer, we might get, there could be persistent effects from earlier, persisting through the soils. I on crop growth in places which have been affected by drought earlier in the years and so successive growing seasons. That's one thing. And I think also just keeping an eye on the forecast just to see how long this particular El Nino will last and whether it will relax to neutral conditions or even flip into a La Nina, which can happen sometimes, which is the opposite of the El Nino.

24:48So we'll be having the same conversation but with the opposite effects. Oh, my God. This time next year, potentially. Well, we'll leave it there. Thanks to our guests, Emily Black, Alec Loon for joining us. And thanks to you for listening. Do subscribe and follow wherever you get your podcasts. Goodbye for now. Bye.

25:11You can't reason with the sun. Trust us, we've tried. This summer, it's time to put that angry ball of fire on mute. Columbia's OmniShade technology is engineered to protect you from the sun's harsh rays that can burn and damage your skin. The sun is relentless, but so is our gear. Level up your summer at Columbia.com to spend more time outside and less time slathering on aloe lotion. You're welcome. Columbia. Engineered for whatever.