Iran buries Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

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1:00are women more likely to be affected? We'll hear from a survivor of childhood rape campaigning to prevent her attacker and others being freed under the government's early release scheme. War, war and jaw, jaw. Lise Doucette to explain why there's neither peace nor war between Iran and the United States and whether there's a way through. On a gas platform in the Jackdaw field in the North Sea, the owner tells the BBC new extraction must be approved if the UK is to avoid energy shortages and rowing to victory ahead of the Norway-England match at the weekend, how Norwegian fans are making a distinctive mark in the World Cup.

1:35You're listening to The World Tonight with Sean Lay.

1:52In Iran today, they buried what remains of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the country's holiest site, the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad. Hopes that along with the supreme leader, Iran might also bury its long-established enmity with the US, The great Satan, as it's termed, now look wide of the mark. Iran launched attacks on US military bases in the Gulf early evening, perhaps getting its retaliation in first. BBC's chief international correspondent, Lise Doucette, newly returned from Iran, is here in the studio, at least as ever. Thanks for being with us. We saw a united front of mourners today, but the Iranian people clearly have different views on the former Supreme Leader and on the future of the Islamic Republic itself.

2:37What impressions did you form on your most recent visit? It's been quite a spectacle across a week and tonight at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, an absolute ocean of loyalists in black. And whether you think that, as we saw in the three days of funeral processions in Tehran, there was genuine mourning, certainly among the core of support that the regime maintains. There were others who told us that they had been told by their company or their government department they should come. And two women pulled us aside and said, you must listen to the real voices of the revolution. And they said, it's not the people on the street now.

3:20It's the people who were on the street six months ago and whose voices were crushed by the security forces, which led to many thousands of deaths. But I think what the week has told us, what the message of Iran's new leaders who survived the weeks of war, is that they can still mobilize. Large numbers, said to be in the millions, on the streets. Iran may be divided, but they are certainly still standing. We have these strikes today by Iran. Are we expecting this pattern to continue? And at the same time, can you simultaneously have these airstrikes and counter airstrikes, but also have meaningful discussions?

4:02It certainly is testing this truce that was agreed only weeks ago, an interim deal said to be a memorandum of understanding, which was meant to have paved the way for at least 60 days. And certainly they'll need more than 60 days to discuss the main issues, which is who controls the Strait of Hormuz, how will it be run? And what about Iran's nuclear program? But I think what this is telling us, you use the word pattern, and that's absolutely right. This will be the pattern. No war, no all-out war, but similarly, no permanent peace. And some of that is rooted in the ambiguous wording of this memorandum of understanding, which has led to misunderstandings between the two sides.

4:44And if you read the text, it does give Iran sway over the strategic waterway. And talking to officials in Iran, they are never going to give up some kind of control, some kind of leverage over the strait. But what the Americans read was that this would return to the status quo before the war, which was unleashed in February 28, the free flow of maritime traffic. And so this is very much, as President Trump likes to say, a war, a ceasefire in the Middle East is different from other parts of the world. But at what point, Sean, does it get tested so much that it completely collapses? notwithstanding the fact that both sides, both the Iranians and the Americans, are under pressure from within their own ranks by the hardliners who want them to return to war.

5:27If we are in a situation where Iran is not going to give up control of this key strait, does that mean the consequences of that we've seen over the last months could become permanent? In other words, regular disruption to supplies, international supplies, and permanently high oil prices? Well, what the terms of the deal say is that Iran for 60 days will not charge tolls. Then there will be discussion with other regional partners about how to manage the strait. So Iran has been trying to come up with a new system with Oman, who controls the other side. And the Omanis haven't been really willing to go along with it.

6:05There is, of course, there's a narrow band in that strait, that narrow strait, which is territorial waters. But it's so narrow that both of them have their own waters along their coastline. And of course, there are countries like the United Arab Emirates who absolutely reject Iran having any control over the strait. But again, the hardliners in Iran, in fact, right across the political spectrum are saying, sorry, we've now got it and we're not going to give it up. And yes, the world is suffering and Iran is saying we won't charge tolls, call them service fees, call them something. But we will allow a freer flow of traffic, but only on our terms.

6:39Just one final point. The Israel's prime minister's office says Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump have spoken today and agreed to continue coordination on various fronts. Do you think that that is significant? They talk regularly, no doubt behind the scenes. He's going to say, Donald, I told you so. This is never going to work. I'm going to give you time. He said this in a CNN interview. The president wants to try it. He's trying to be diplomatic. But the Israel Defense Minister, Israel Katz, said we're ready and waiting to respond with even greater force. Least to set our chief international correspondent.

7:14Thank you. Well, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, or FDD, is a think tank based in Washington, D.C., which was highly critical of the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran, known by the acronym the JCPOA. Then Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the agreement during his first term. Asked Ben and Ben Talibou, senior director of the Iran program at the foundation, what he makes of the renewed attacks. Well, sadly, I think the latest escalation between the US and Iran was entirely predictable. You know, this is a regime that, unfortunately, can play a bad hand well, but also tends to overplay its hand.

7:52And despite someone like me being critical of the memorandum of understanding due to how heavily slanted it was in Iran's favor, it still played to the edge and then overplayed its hand, continuing to attack ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz that did not use pre-approved Iranian routes. That obviously brought the U.S. in. And here we are. The question is, you know, military force by both sides to what end? What politically are the Americans and the Iranians hoping to achieve? through these strikes? And what are the political calculations in each capital that they want to shape about the other?

8:24Yeah, I just want to pick up on the Memorandum of Understanding because the way you've phrased that suggests you think now we've moved away from that, although we're told that negotiations will continue. I mean, Donald Trump effectively said this week he doesn't think they'll do much good. Do you think the mere fact that there was a Memorandum of Understanding, the fact that the United States negotiated this with the Iranians might have given them their impression that they had more room for manoeuvre than they actually had. In other words, may the American signals have been actually a bit confused on this to the Iranians.

8:58Well, I do think some of the American signals have been confused, whether you try to marry the rhetoric with the reality or the diplomatic playing field versus the actual battlefield. But I don't think that's how we got into this. I mean, I think there is a difference between the ceasefire continuing to be violated and trampled on and the MOU really being terminally ill and then kaput. You know, there's three ways from the U.S. side to really measure that the MOU is gone. Way number one is if the U.S. restores the blockade. Way number two is not if the U.S. restores penalties, but escalates those sanctions and penalties because the MOU prohibited new sanctions, emphasis on new.

9:38And the third is if the Americans move more military forces into the region. This isn't just planes coming and going, but really assets into theater because they were supposed to draw that down. Would you support those things happening? Would you like to see them happening? I would, because the Islamic Republic uses its oil revenue to generate revenue for things like its missile program, drone program, nuclear program. And I think restoring the blockade, turning up the heat on Tehran and making it sweat. You know, there's no need to resume military attacks that the adversary will absorb and then doesn't change the political playing field.

10:14But if you can shape their calculations other, perhaps more creative ways, then I'm all for it. Right. I mean, I wonder if your position now is a kind of recognition that basically the military option has failed on the basis that America has neither the desire nor the will to send in ground troops. I don't believe it has failed. In fact, I do believe it needs to be married with other things. When you're dealing with a regime like the Islamic Republic, there is never going to be any silver bullet. And then there's a whole host of trade-offs. I think it's about the administration being willing to adopt the right framework and then being willing to, you know, sustain that with time and political capital.

10:52I mean, effectively, you're saying that there isn't a deal to be made. I do believe there is not a deal to be made. that is correct. And it is ironic because I have put pen to paper about what in the nuclear world, in the missile world, what the ideal deal would look like. But this is a regime that has shown us, and even in the 37 years of Ali Khamenei, the former supreme leader, that he was unwilling to make those trade-offs, unwilling to make those sacrifices. So U.S. policy has to realize that and then actually take advantage of the fact that there is a different phenomenon on the ground in Iran, which is you have the most anti-American government, but the most pro-American population, and perhaps work by with and through that to pressure the regime and flip the script.

11:35I'm interested you mentioned the population, because just before the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February, you published a piece in Foreign Affairs, in which you argued that if there was a military strike, that would create, in a sense, a catalyst for an uprising by the Iranian people. Well, actually, the piece did not say that it would be a catalyst. The piece said to respond to the massacre in January and to level the playing field for the next round, military force would have to be used against the apparatus of repression. and unfortunately in the 40 days of fighting, you know, if you read the foreign affairs piece carefully, you see that I talk about dismantling the missile program, the nuclear program, to get to what really needs to be targeted, which is the besiege, the law enforcement forces, the IRGC.

12:22And the Israelis were the only ones who did that and very sporadically during the 40-day war. So in other words, it was the wrong targets? Absolutely. Not bridge day, not tunnel day, IRGC day, besiege day. That's Ben Talibu at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies. Scientists today confirmed that last month was the hottest June recorded for Western Europe. As the impacts continue to be felt, including early harvests, hosepipe bans and a plea from the operator of the National Grid for more electricity to be available as people use aircon overnight, the impact on our bodies is one we'll have to increasingly consider.

12:58Jess Bloom is expecting a baby at the end of this month. She told the BBC being heavily pregnant in the thick of summer is literally hell. I'm really trying to stay positive and dig deep, but I feel like I'm at the end of my tether. Like our attic bedroom is so hot, so I'm so tired, which makes me nervous about potentially going into labour during the heat wave. So I know that would just be hell. Plus, I've got a two year old that clambering all over me constantly whilst my baby is kicking me from the inside. So it's just very overstimulating and just taking it one day at a time. but I stand with the other pregnant women enduring this heat.

13:33It is a lot. Jess Bloom, well, if you're enjoying, perhaps enduring, a tropical night where you are, could your experience of it in part be influenced by your gender? There's evidence to suggest women are more prone to suffer ill effects than men are. Let's talk live to Ellie Cannon. She is an NHS GP as well as a writer and broadcaster. Dr Cannon, thanks for being with us on The World tonight. let's talk first of all about about that gender difference what biologically is the basis of that well there's a few things really um so hearing from jess just now um is a great example there are times in a woman's life when um she feels much hotter than otherwise so pregnancy um is a great example your body temperature tends to be higher than um around the menopause um can also affect Obviously, women have hot flashes at that time, so tend to be sort of a lot hotter and a lot more sensitive to heat.

14:32Actually, just changes within. There are times in the cycle when the body temperature rises. So all of those times would be sort of when a woman would tend to feel sort of hotter than a man. But also actually women sweat less than men and sweat is a really great way of keeping cool. So the regulation, the body's regulator for temperature is different. Yeah, that's right, because the water on the skin evaporates and that produces cooling. So if you sweat less, then you're not going to sort of cope with the heat as well. You mentioned that the line dropped out briefly. I assume you were referring to the menstrual cycle then in terms of, so the production of estrogen in the body also impacts how your body, whether your body can lower temperature effectively.

15:21Yeah, that's right. So, you know, around the menopause, around pregnancy, but also through the cycle, there are times, the menstrual cycle, there are times when a woman is hotter. In fact, some women use that as a way of predicting whether or not they're going to be fertile. The body temperature just rises naturally for a woman. Let's talk about age. Are older women more prone to the effects of heat than older men are? um they certainly can be again because of um what we've said about sweating also to do with body fat so body fat is another way that our bodies naturally control our temperature fat is a storage or is an insulator of heat and the way that fat is distributed on women and men is different even when they get older so that can also mean that older women um may find it sort of harder to control their temperature depending how much weight that they're carrying.

16:19And of course on average women live longer than men so that might be one reason why older women would come up more in the statistics and one of those striking ones was the UK Health Security Agency said almost one in six heat associated deaths in England last summer were linked to dementia about 254 out of the 1500 people who died as a result of heat. What is it about dementia that that makes us less able to regulate our own temperature. Well I mean that's a devastating statistic isn't it? I mean what we know about dementia is obviously people only think about memory but actually one of the big features of dementia is an inability to care for yourself so to be sort of neglectful of yourself and not to remember all the sort of normal activities of daily living And that can even be something as simple as feeling thirsty and knowing you should drink.

17:11So it's very easy to understand why somebody with dementia would be so vulnerable in the heat wave, not remembering to drink, because obviously we all have to remember to drink excessively at the moment. And all the sort of advice that we've been giving, like keeping the curtains closed, not going out when it's hot. None of that will sort of be taken on board by somebody with dementia unless obviously they've got somebody sort of caring for them 24-7 and doing that for them. So that's why they are particularly vulnerable. Dr. Ellie Cannon, thank you very much. Save big money in your next painting project now at Menards.

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18:19Last night we heard from the granddaughter of Ruth Ellis, the last woman to be hanged in this country after the Justice Secretary David Lammy, standing in for Sir Keir Starmer at Prime Minister's Questions, said that she would be granted a conditional pardon. At the time, Mr Lammy was being challenged on the government's prisoner early release scheme. There'll be no early release for Ruth Ellis, of course. In England and Wales, prisoners will be eligible for release after serving a minimum of one-third of their sentence rather than half of it. Two years ago, the incoming Labour government released more than 38 ,000 prisoners because of a shortage of cells to house them in.

18:52Now the scheme has become permanent. There are a small number of exemptions, but more people will now be managed in the community, not out of it. The Domestic Abuse and Victims Commissioners have both said they're not satisfied. Safeguards are yet in place to allow this to happen safely. Former Home Office Minister Jess Phillips argued a risk assessment should be conducted in every case which involves violence against women and girls. Jade Belgrove was raped as a child. She's waived her anonymity in order to discuss her experiences. Under this scheme, the man who attacked Jane is due to be released possibly in September.

19:27She's been telling me about the petition she launched to stop the early release of sex offenders. First, she described what happened to her at the age of 14. My dad met a bloke through work and they became really good friends. He then became basically part of the family. and from there he gained everyone's trust completely and manipulated us all in hindsight I believe I was groomed about two years before he'd like if I was having a sleepover with my friend he'd give me a little bit of alcohol to take to his sleepover or give me and my friend cigarettes and things so he'd try he acted like the cooler older brother trying to gain my trust which he did and he'd get obviously my family were completely unaware that he did all this with me but he'd also gain their trust by acting like the responsible adult and acting like someone to look up to but then at the age of 14 he raped me twice in one year and sexually assorted me the year after when he was convicted how long was he how long was the jail term that the judge gave him it was a consecutive sentence so on paper he got a lot longer but he consecutively had to serve nine years, which with the 75 % would have meant six years in prison, three years unlicensed.

20:44As a result of the changes that have been announced, he's coming out how much sooner than you had originally expected he would be released? They're telling us that we won't find out until the end of August. Bear in mind, this new early release scheme is coming to play on the 2nd of September. Right. So you're still waiting to find out how this will impact the sentence your attacker was given and how soon he might be released. Yeah, that's correct. I was promised in a court of law that he would have a nine-year sentence, albeit six years in prison and the three unlicensed, but I was promised that in a court of law.

21:19To begin with, I don't believe that paedophiles, rapists, I could have long enough anyway. It's quite insulting that he would only serve six years in prison to begin with and I serve a life sentence. So then to have this further insult and this further betrayal of the fact that he will now only do half of the nine years. It's insult after insult and it's horrendous. This fight isn't just for me. This fight is for all other victims and the perpetrators that are going to be released around are women and children and men. I understand there's a problem with the prisons, but there's people in prison who haven't violently hurt anyone, who haven't affected people's life for the rest of their lives, who haven't tortured women and children.

22:04There is people in those prisons that could get out early and not re-offend, who could get out early and it's a lot more acceptable than having paedophiles and rapists back on the streets. Right, I understand. The government says that it's putting into place additional measures to ensure that people who are released in these circumstances are under the closest possible scrutiny, both in terms of the probation service but also the tagging of offenders. Does that give if you have any hope? No, to be completely honest, it doesn't because we already know how many problems there are with probation services at the moment.

22:42The money that they are putting into these probation, this 700 million, I believe, was thrown around at one point. Why can't we look at putting that into maybe rebuilding a prison that has previously been closed down, like some MPs have said, or extending prisons? Why can't we keep people there who victims and survivors have been promised would be there. Jane Belgrove. Jade Belgrove. Well, Andrew Akumba is the chief executive of the Howard League for Penal Reform, a charity which campaigns for reform of the justice system. And I asked her what she made of the government's sentencing reforms. It doesn't realise the potential of a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

23:23The government has undoubtedly sort of bottled that opportunity. And instead, we have a sentencing act which we welcome. There's a lot of stuff in there that's positive around getting rid of short sentences. We welcome the earlier release point of 33 % for a lot of offences, but we don't think it goes far enough. You've described the prison system as being overcrowded and under-resourced and being on the brink of collapse. Do you think that critique extends to the probation system too? Arguably, it's even more true of the probation system. So probation has, I think, 35 % fewer officers than it did 10 years ago.

24:01It has many fewer experienced officers than it's had, and its caseload goes up and up and is only going to go up further with the changes in the Sentencing Act. So, I mean, I spoke at the National Association of Probation Officers Conference a couple of years ago, and I've never spoken to a union meeting that was so broken. I mean, probation officers have been broken, first by the prescraling cut changes over 10 years ago, but then by successive kind of underinvestment in probation. The government says it's putting in more resources, but a great number of quite influential figures have expressed their concerns about the scheme, given that a lot of these releases will happen before those resources are fully in place.

24:47We've had both Claire Waxman, the Victims Commissioner, and Nicole Jacobs, the Domestic Abuse Commissioner, saying they were given specific reassurances that all of this would be in place, and they feel that ministers have broken those reassurances. Jess Phillips, the former safeguarding minister, has said that all releases related to violence against women and girls should not take place until the government can prove that proper risk assessments are being done in every case. Given those criticisms, do you understand why a lot of people are worried about the consequences of this early release scheme?

25:25I mean, I can see that. And, you know, we're concerned that people are being set up to fail by coming out to lack of sufficient support from probation. But ultimately, the government needs to take these measures because prisons are very nearly on the brink of being unable to accept any more people. and the conditions in them mean that people are locked up in their cells all day, they're not getting training, they're getting none of the interventions that they need to turn their lives around. So in these kind of prison conditions, they're not being set up to succeed when they are released, which proposes a danger to the public.

26:02Is it fair to say this is all being done a bit on a wing and a prayer? Yeah, that is completely fair to say. I'm afraid it has been. I mean, organisations like the Howard League and others in the sector have been warning that this was coming for years. We've just had to see the projections of prison population in the five years I've been at the Howard League to know that this was an inevitability. So the idea that we're only now getting our probation officers sort of next April, that we need to be able to support people in the community and keep the public safe, is ridiculous, frankly. Andrea Coomber there of the Howard League.