Boom Supersonic's Milestones, OpenAI Ethics, and Startup Tools | E2078

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31:38Go to scalablepath.com slash twist to get started today. They're going to give you 20 % off your first month. You might not need it. It's already a great price, but they want to make sure that they know you came from this week in startups. So please use our URL and use that code to get that 20 % off. I just want to make sure that they know we sent you. Scalablepath.com slash twist. I think you could pitch, hey, we're going to go look at the government. We're going to find, I'm just making stuff up here, 10%, and we're going to cut the staff that are doing the least, and we're going to save some money.

32:06Very popular. I think the way that the administration has thus far gone around doing things with this kind of like hard and fast, I've been reading a lot of people that are impacted by potential federal funding freezes for research and so forth. And I do think that that's chaos that happens outside of technology circles, Jason. And I think it will chip away at certain goodwill that he may have had in certain areas that will not show up on Twitter. And so I think we should just pay attention to - It's absolutely worth noting. You nailed it. If you do the shock and awe that they're doing, flooding the zone, pick whatever descriptor you want, cutting deeper than you need to, and then adding back.

32:46I agree with those strategies, but it will have unintended consequences. And I saw it up close and personal at Twitter. At one point, Elon said, hey, we're if we made a mistake and you really want to work here and what you're doing is mission critical, please email us. We'll rehire you. They're doing not, you can't do something that aggressive, but I think this, Hey, if you want to resign and get eight months free and you know, there's, I guess all kind of technicalities, it seems like is coming out in order to execute that. I do think that could be upwards of 20 % of people take that deal. And I agreed, but just everyone keep in mind that most of the federal government expense does not go to staffers and agencies that are going to get cut this is this is window dressing for the big stuff um it's a start you know it's we have to set culture and so when you set culture that's what's happening here and when you say hey we're going to be in the office hey if you if you don't want to be here here's the off path um when coinbase did this this sets a certain culture and a tone which is like of seriousness hey we're going to go hard we're going to work hard for the american people and we're going to look at every single expenditure and you know um if they save a billion dollars a day if they save 365 billion dollars and i put this in a tweet you know just if you're if you're a family of five this is going to resonate dramatically because three dollars a day a billion dollars a day is three dollars a day per american that's about 340 million americans we don't actually know the number suffice it to say it's three dollars if you save a billion a day, you're saving$3 a day, you're saving$1 ,000 per person.

34:15Family of five, now you start saving$5 ,000 a person. If they get it to$3 billion, now you're talking about saving$30 ,000 per family. That could either go towards education, paying down the debt, any number of things that are important. And so part of this freezing all the spending is to look at it and then just go, yes, no, yes, no, and then to highlight it. It's going to be very uncomfortable for people. there's going to be a lot of mistakes but the bigger mistake is doing nothing 37 trillion dollars in debt is crazy so while you might not agree with all this strategy you know i don't know if you do or not i agree with the strategy because we are 37 trillion dollars in debt if we were 10 trillion dollars in debt and it was like you know a smaller percentage of gdp i'd be like all right, yeah, this probably is not necessary to do it in such a, you know, strong way, but I am cautiously optimistic.

35:13There you go. Well, my views aside, you know, putting aside what I think about all this for the moment, I think you said something very interesting. If we take that savings and we apply it to deficit reduction, paying down the debt, education, and investment in our future, smart things. What I think we're actually going to do, if based on what I've seen, This is not me talking. It's just what I can see from Congress, essentially, is that we're going to do all this cutting to preserve the 2017 Trump era tax cuts. And that will not reduce our deficit. And so to me, I really I really hope that we get both sides of this.

35:49If we're going to cut, if we're going to say to the American people, we're going to go through a painful reduction in government services and spending. Great. let's not just reduce income at the federal level to a similar degree and therefore keep borrowing a trillion dollars a year that would be very disappointing to me but it's going to be tough to tell people taxes may not be as low as you want if we're going to tackle the debt but i just don't think it's fair to say to people look we're going to take away x y and z programs that you like but everyone who's already rich gets more tax cuts i think that's not fair take a look at the um the fred chart federal debt total public debt click the 10 year and what you'll see here is the steady climb and the doubling of our national debt from 2015 until 2024, right?

36:32So in 10 years, we doubled it. And doubling it in 10 years is insane and deranged. Now, of course, you had this COVID issue, but this slope has to in some way get dampened. It has to go flat, basically. And then once it goes flat, maybe it could go down. or just as a percentage of our GDP, if we can flatten it or at least reduce the curve, then as a percentage of GDP, it becomes more manageable and we're not paying some huge portion of our taxes to pay down the debt, which is on a variable interest rate in most cases, it seems. Yes. We are in dire straits. I just hope that the pain is equally spread around.

37:18Now, back to technology. Sorry, everybody. Jason and I have a lot of things on our mind. This is one of those like kinetic news cycles when every time I open up my phone, I'm like, whoa. Well, you have to relate these to, the big picture relates down to what's happening in tech. So let's keep going through the docket. All right. So today, lots of earnings are coming out. We're not going to go through all of these one by one, but just in case people are curious, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM, ADP. And then the two companies that I think we should just touch on very briefly, Jason, are Microsoft and Meta.

37:48Now, why these two companies, we care about them. They are technology's biggest names. They're worth trillions of dollars. They have lots of businesses. But I think people are going to be very curious to see what their CEOs have to say to market questions about their CapEx plans. Because recall, a week or two ago, these two companies were saying, Microsoft's, you know, we're good for 80 billion this fiscal year. We talked about Zuck and his plans to build a data center the size of Manhattan, more or less. But then in the DeepSeek era, they now have to go in front of their investors, Wall Street, analysts, and the public and defend their plans.

38:23And so I think today's earnings from those two companies are going to be highly illustrative of what their plans are for the future. Will we see Satya over at Microsoft say, hey, we're good for 80 billion this year, but next year it's 50. That'll be interesting. I don't think we're going to see that, but these are going to be some firecracker earnings reports. Yeah. And I'll be totally honest. investing in capex is a great thing for these companies to do with their cash hoards because even if they utilize but 50 of that capex over the next decade if there's some waste there but they find a new business self-driving you know their existing businesses become slightly more efficient whatever they discover through that capex whatever they learn over time new opportunities, new products and services will emerge from that CapEx spend, or they won't, and they'll just degrade it.

39:17So it's not like when they make these pronouncements, hey, we're going to spend$60 billion a year for five years,$300 billion, that they can't change. We saw this with Meta, with their glasses and the whole Metaverse boondoggle, right? That whole side quest has now been forgotten. He changed the name of the company four years ago, said this is the future of the entire company two years into it or making that announcement i think he said yeah uh psych it's a side project it's a side hustle it's not the core of the company the core of the company is going to be ai and it does seem like the deep seat um scare the shock as now which i kind of anticipated would wane a little bit when we actually got reality anything coming out of china you're gonna have to like consider it like a theranos announcement you know like they they've cooked the books they steal you know uh ip there's all kinds of stuff going on that doesn't mean it's not real it could be real aspects to it but there could also be things underneath it like we've seen over and over again we're gonna get to deep seek and the theft in just a second but funny you bring up mixed reality and vr over at meta because i was blown away by a news item that i saw and this is at the very this is the bottom of the docket where i just put stuff that I find interesting.

40:31According to Business Insider, they got a internal memo from Meta and Andrew Bosworth, their CTO, said that the Reality Labs team, quote, beat nearly all of last year's aggressive sales and user goals, growing RL sales over 40 % year over year. Quote, we are seeing massive sales growth in wearables and the Quest brand has never been stronger. Have they pulled it off? Because I had the same perspective that you did for so long, which is that Meta is spending $2 billion a quarter on VR. it's a boondoggle get it together guys it's ar it's all ar it's those um you know ray-band uh glasses they created what are they called again the um i forget the name of them but they look like ray-bans and they have the little camera in them and so you know actually looking at what consumers want to do take pictures of their kids feed their social media like that is the killer um use case for glasses right now and playing video games is not the killer use case and those glasses are becoming obtainable i think they're 300 those ray-bans are providing an actual use case the other experimental stuff you know some people like to do the try oh my goodbye you know every christmas they buy a quest they play a couple of jurassic park games beat saber there they're they called again the ray-ban meta wayfarers and they have a number of varieties here but i think they all go into the wayfarer brand i like the blue ones not gonna lie those are hot a little chunky just called ray-ban meta i guess is wayfair a standard ray-ban i think that's the style of glass ah so that wayfair is like the dylan-esque glasses with the thick uh stems and uh yeah so that's the wayfair as a style but i was getting these for music uh from ray-ban they have a really cool one that just has a little speaker by your ear and i love them because i could be walking around listening to a podcast or on a hike and then i could hear people talking.

42:26Snapchat spectacles was a big deal when they had the little vending machines parachuting down. People love to play this stuff if it actually helps them. But Jason, let's move on to the biggest news story today, which is this DeepSeek controversy. We've been talking about DeepSeek a lot. Everyone in the world is, but recently there's been some criticism that they might have been stealing from the cookie jar, as it were. So I thought we'd hear from someone you know very well, Jason, Mr. David Sachs, over here. And we have a clip from him talking to Cable News, all about what's going on. So here is David on DeepSea.

43:00Well, it's possible. There's a technique in AI called distillation, which you're going to hear a lot about. And it's when one model learns from another model. Effectively, what happens is that the student model asks the parent model a lot of questions, just like a human would learn. But AIs can do this asking millions of questions, and they can essentially mimic the reasoning process that they learn from the parent model, and they can kind of suck the knowledge out of the parent model. And there's substantial evidence that what DeepSeek did here is they distilled the knowledge out of OpenAI's models.

43:36And I don't think OpenAI is very happy about this. And I think one of the things you're going to see over the next few months is our leading AI companies taking steps to try and prevent distillation. And so we'll see if the leading AI companies can prevent distillation by third-party companies, that would definitely slow down some of these copycat models. So, Jason, what do you think about that? So, OpenAI stole the New York Times, stole everybody's content, and then had their content stolen, and now they're calling a foul? Like, well, BS. Like, literally, OpenAI stole everybody's content, a whistleblower committed suicide, apparently, because of it, because of the stress they were under, or who knows, you know, I don't want to really...

44:21it seems uncouth to me to make too many commentaries on a tragedy like that. That's why I haven't talked about it either. Well, I mean, listen, we have to talk about it at a certain point. There is a 1 % chance or less than 1 % chance that it's anything other than a suicide. The parents have been doing a tour on podcasts. I got hit three, four different ways to have them here on This Week in Startups or have them on All In. and i'll be totally honest you know after i listened to a portion of it i have incredible incredible sympathy for this these parents right nothing worse than this could possibly happen if i was a parent and god forbid something like that happened to me you know i would do everything i could to convince myself that my my son was murdered uh tragically and that they didn't take their own life because that is such a horrible thing to have to face right suicide is just i remember uh having a conversation with a friend over a friend who a mutual who had um committed suicide and it was just like our brains were broken for a very long time and maybe my brain is still broken to a certain extent uh over this uh tragedy uh that i experienced in my personal life and so it's less than a one percent chance but it is um an important note that this person was the whistleblower uh so we can't avoid the fact that this tragedy occurred and that he was in the new york times and that he's the key witness and that he might he might in fact be the fulcrum or the the linchpin of all of this in the new york times's case open ai stole content everybody who leaves open ai start well the leadership that leaves starts another company so it's not like they're just retiring rich they all leave say that they you know really appreciate their time yeah collect a bunch of money in secondary selling their shares to um to cushioner over at thrive and then they go start a competing company like if you put the things together and then you know the flipping from a non-profit to a for-profit there is definitely an ethical issue at open ai specifically with sam altman according to the people who worked for him and so if they're and the people who partnered with him so now is he being unfairly treated is it like everybody's ganging up on him for some reason it doesn't feel that way if it was one or two people you could make that case but when it's like 10 or 20 people who are saying i have ethical problems and they fired him for ethics, then brought him back.

46:46And the whole thing is convoluted like this. It's interesting how the perspective on that is flipped because when the board fired Sam Altman, everyone in technology, Twitter was like, this is ridiculous. The non-nerds are kicking out the nerds. Sam Altman's a genius. Who is this? This person on the board has a PhD in art. And now we're like, the board was right. Sam Altman sucks. It's a vibe shift. And I think it depends a little bit on who you're listening to. But I do think that There has been enough there to point out that Sam's probably a little tough to work for, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

47:15Let's hear from them. So here's OpenAI's statement on the possible theft of their reasoning from DeepSeq. We're getting to the funny part. We know PRC-based companies and others are constantly trying to distill the models of leading US AI companies. As the leading builder of AI, we engage in countermeasures to protect our IP, including a careful process for which furniture capabilities to include in release, blah, blah, blah, blah. But they're like, we protect our IP. Your IP is fair use. Our IP is sacrosanct. And I said this with technology companies, not just OpenAI, but everybody when they're saying, oh, you know, it's just fair use, it's copyright.

47:54I'm like, okay, cool. I'm going to tell you that your IP is fair use and not copyright protected when I use it. And I want you to count until you send your lawyers. This is the Napser moment for OpenAI, I believe. and we all know what happened to Napster, right? It gave way to Spotify, which did it legally. So my best advice to content providers, Disney's of the world's book publishers, magazine publishers, anybody who has anything that's on the web, you know, is to meet with the council for the New York Times and see if you can join their lawsuit in some way, contribute to it. Not because I believe in ganging up on Sam Altman or have any personal vendetta against open AI.

48:36It's because I have a belief that the opportunity to create these products and services is the opportunity for the IP holders, not for a third party, which is exactly what happened with Napster. We all want to have all the world's knowledge in a jukebox in the cloud. We all want the video jukebox in the cloud, the multiplex with every movie playing any second we want to go. That's consumer desire. So you can have that consumer desire. You want to have Spotify, but you can also respect IP. And both of those things have occurred. You can go subscribe to 10 different services for but 10 to 20 bucks a month.

49:15And for 150 bucks, maybe have a jukebox in the cloud for$1 ,800 a year, which is a big number or for half that number, whatever it is, you could have unlimited, unlimited video consumption, which is a lot better than taking five people to the movies for 10 bucks each back in the day and then having to wait for that movie to, you know, hit a revival theory or whatever. So I hope that that opportunity gets captured. And my publisher, Harper sent me a note for$2 ,500. I can give Microsoft the book angel for three years. And I didn't make a decision on it yet. I haven't signed it, but I'm probably going to sign it just to show support for that concept that my book of money flowing from rights holders to technology companies.

50:00So here's a fun question because we're talking about open AI in particular because of deep seek, because of the possible distillation theft and so forth. But this, I think applies to every single major AI company, Mistral in France, XAI, Anthropic, open AI, et cetera. If they all have the shared foundation of copyrighted information that they did not properly compensate people for, does that represent a major risk to AI in the US? Because on one hand, I am so on board with you, Jason. I agree. Let's get paid for our stuff that they're using. On the other hand, I don't want to fall behind China in the great AI race.

50:36And I don't think DeepSeek is going to have the same IP issues. But if we don't respect the systems of our, the rules of our systems, as we try to protect them, we end up with an empty box. Ask humans, create systems for clearing these things out in bulk and ask humans for permission. Yeah, that's, that's kind of where I end up too. and I do think though I've really I've read so much stuff in the last couple of days about this and I really do think that DeepSeek challenging the world with something that was at least putatively trained for less and has cheaper inference is just going to lead to a lot more AI demand and I just cannot get over the fact that I think this is so bullish for startups did you see perplexity has already baked R1 into their system and they're gonna keep scaling that up I mean sure why not everyone who's model agnostic just got a gift it's going to keep happening and you know competition back to capitalism and competition this is a rare act of capitalism occurring in china and like a free market moment they'll have their moments of free markets um and they're participating in the free market maybe breaking some rules okay you know wouldn't be the first time people broke rules as i just outlined sam altman's broken a couple of rules people break rules all the time they bend them they break them they reinterpret them uh but this is all good for uh humanity i do believe humans will find more work i do believe prices will compress and just like you can spend a hundred bucks a year or 150 bucks a year and have unlimited music consumption whereas previously you could buy 10 cds for that price and that was your roughly and you can watch like you can listen to the radio you know technology will be deflationary and provide more products and services at a lower price open ai is doing very well throughout all of this i think there's a lot of like it's we're so dead or we're so back people just go back and forth between optimism and pessimism i think people should level that out a little bit and keep in mind that while we had these conversations open ai is just doing business and making money so the information reported that, quote, revenue from OpenAI's most expensive tier of ChatGPT, which costs 200 bucks a month, is now generating as much revenue as their enterprise or business team subscriptions.

52:54And that was at$25 million a month last September. Now, I don't know, Jason, let's say 25 % growth since September of last year. That puts it at about a$370 million run rate, which means that ChatGPT Pro is now an enormous company that could go public on its own right. so while we talk about competitiveness and open source versus closed source ai and will deep seek take on you know blah blah blah open eyes is growing and they're just doing very well and i think that gets a little bit lost in the mix so if uh a thousand people are paying two hundred dollars a month that's two hundred thousand if ten thousand it's two million and if a hundred thousand it's twenty million so they have a hundred thousand subscribers already to the paid version correct?

53:40The most expensive paid version. The$200 version a month. So they got 100 ,000 people to sample it. It's not an insignificant number. If they have a million, they have 100 million users a month. I'm just rounding that number out. That would be 0.1%. They have 300 million or 400 million or 500 million, maybe 600 million users. I just want them to go public so the numbers are regular. I think it was 600 million monthly active users because they have the free version. So that's people just stumble across the website and try it one time. But anyway, let's put the number at 500 million. That means 100 ,000 would be like, 1 % would be 5 million.

54:18So yeah, it's a very tiny, tiny percentage of their overall user base. And so the question is, how many of the 500 million become$20 a month people? Of the$20 a month people, how many of those become 200? Of the 200, how many become enterprise? On the competition point though, I really, I love that DeepSeek. kick some butt. You know, I feel like there was this commentary constantly. Well, it's funny how AI is doing like five business cycles in like a year. It's just so compressed. There was the AI is interesting. It has no use case. There's the US is beating China. And then there was China's beating the US.

54:53Then there was open AI is worth a trillion dollars. Everyone's going to buy Nvidia. Then Nvidia is dead. China is going to win. And this is all like the last 12 months. It's crazy fast. But what's cool is everything's getting so much better. It is getting cheaper. And I just think for startups who are building using AI models, they're getting more and more tailwinds from the progress being made. And it makes me so bullish on seed series A companies that are trying to use AI in their goods and services because they have such better tools than they had 18 months ago. Surely it's going to be an accelerant to their growth.

55:25Forget if OpenAI wins or it's Anthropoc or it's XAI or whomever, the startups who are not the hyperscale model companies are going to feast. yeah they're gonna just it's downward pressure on the cost of uh hosted ai apis that people are using and everybody every founder i've ever talked to every enterprise is making it hot swappable so at any point in time you can just point your you know just like you can change where you store your data from you know amazon to oracle cloud to microsoft or google's cloud or rackspace or whoever digital ocean because you can easily swap that and just point it to another direction with standards and open standards and writing clean code that's how people are setting up their ai so there'll be no loyalty um and then the question becomes you know with these rogue models with these copycat models do they have fidelity and people are going to pay for fidelity so if it's you know all things being equal and you've got i don't know ten thousand dollars a month in api hits and you can do it for a thousand or five thousand you're going to want the one you're not going to mind the difference between twelve thousand and a hundred thousand for a sas company let's say or any product or service you're going to be willing to pay for the one that has the best results just like you might be able to buy cheaper storage that's slower and has a higher error rate but why would you because if you lose somebody's photos you'd be quite pissed off to our question about the importance of photos for people so i think that's um the other counter argument to this okay great somebody did this cheap there's some fugazi stuff going on apparently but would you trust your business on it and the answer is no no yeah exactly play with it but you're gonna want something with resiliency and less hallucinations yep uh all that's to say that it's a great time to build a company going back to jason's comments at the top of the show so go build something and then tell us all about it and if you kick maximum butt we'll put you on the twist 500 which is now north of 200 companies and growing by about 30 or 40 or 50 a week so jason and found our university big announcement I'm going to make shortly, but I'll just preview it here.

57:30Founding University has been virtual. And I think I may have alluded to this, but I decided I'm trying to get back in office a bit. So I've got a couple of team members here in Austin. We're looking for a space and we're going to do Founding University. Either one cohort will be virtual, one cohort will be in person, or we'll do some sort of hybrid where you'll get to spend a couple of weeks in Texas with me and the team doing intensive stuff. Or maybe we'll invite the best of the Founding university, 250 companies and teams to come in person. So it'd be like kind of a reward. So I'm figuring that out.

58:03And I'm going to reorganize our company around this new premise because, gosh, the number of people who can start companies now, my observation is has gone 10x. And then the cost of doing them is going to go down 10x. So you start thinking about that 100x leverage. That means that there are more people who will take the 25k check from me to start their company, and then more people who will want to take the 125K check from Techstars, Launch Accelerator, Y Combinator, or whatever company there is. So while more of those experiments are going to fail, because people will be trying different things and maybe not everybody's cut out for it, I did a little back of the envelope math.

58:41There's a concept called pull-through. Pull-through means, did your investment make to the next round of funding? So for founding university, getting that first 25K check at a million dollar valuation to incorporate and pay for your legal or whatever, the next phase is typically going to an accelerator, 125K, and then after that would be a seed round of 500K. And sometimes people are doing so well, they can skip those. So they skip the 25K check, go directly to an accelerator, or take the 25K check, skip the 125, and go directly to a seed round. Sometimes people skip a seed round and get a series A because the team's so great and the progress is awesome and the vision is great.

59:14long story short if pull through was half that amount um but you did a a larger uh surface area of deals um you have a chaotic organization that has to manage many many many more projects and entrepreneurs so you need to really figure that out right because it's a very bespoke industry and it's relationship based so you have to figure out how to scale relationships which is why i want to have you know a physical space where people the best people can come and do let's call it one to a few, you know, me plus 20 founders in a room, me plus eight founders, my team plus 10 founders, that kind of thing.

59:48That's the way to scale it is a little groups, pods, if you will. But I think there's going to be a sea change in venture in early stage where a lot more projects are going to get funded and a lot, thusly, a lot more are going to go under and be failed experiments, but then a lot more will make it through the filter, the great pull through filter. And so I'm super excited about what this is going to do for the startup landscape. And I don't think many people understand it right now. So back to that GoPolar company, which we seeded with our accelerator check, I believe. It's a tiny vision, but they too have big, once they got the app done, then they said, oh, here's the next card to turn over.

1:00:29Here's the next one. So sometimes founders get emboldened by milestones along the way. And then in their peripheral vision, they see a bigger vision and they expand and they expand and they expand. that is a viable way to go about this right uh as a as a pursuit some people just start with the biggest idea in the world um but other ones are like i'm going to rent you a couch and you're going to couch sir and then that becomes a 10 20 30 50 billion dollar business down the road uh i just want to i know we have to wrap up a little bit long on time but at the start of the show one thing i wanted to add when we were talking about founding the company building something is just how awesome it is to do that now because of things like atlas from stripe that will just sets you up an incorporation.

1:01:09Like when we did this for our little company, we just used modern tooling or using Stripe and Mercury and Substack and Atlas. And like, it's, it's not that hard. A long tail of, yeah. Tools. To fit the Legos together. It's, it's, so, but what I'm trying to say is it's never been easier and technology makes it easier to build stuff on top of that corporate foundation. So I'm hoping that we see a lot of cool little projects. Like bring back small, weird tech. You know, I want some crazy, stupid stuff. Like remember Meerkat? that was hot for like a month and it was like pre periscope live streaming we all had fun with that we need more odd stuff yeah have fun you know make make weird stuff uh couch surfing you know uh surveys a petition survey to get free uh beer at your uh office party turns into groupon descript terms into a full video editing incredible tool all this stuff restream It turns into a TV studio in a box.

1:02:06Like all these things can start small and have like small beginnings and great oaks come from tiny acorns, tiny acorns. Correct. There you go. All right. We are back on Friday friends. Don't forget we are live on YouTube and all the social platforms you could possibly want. The podcast is available in every podcast provider that you can name. My name is Alex. He's Jason. We'll see you on Friday. Bye bye.