In short
This Week in Startups: Episode E2043 Summary
Podcast Title: This Week in Startups Episode Title: TWiST News: Underwater Drones, Robot Swarms, and Klarna's Going Public Host: Jason Calacanis Guest: Nelson Mills, Co-Founder of VATN Systems Date: [Insert Date]
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Episode Overview
In this episode of "This Week in Startups," Jason Calacanis and co-host Alex Wilhelm discuss a range of topics including advancements in defense technology, underwater drones, the future of robotics, and the recent IPO filings of fintech giant Klarna. The dialogue features an interview with Nelson Mills, who provides insight into his company’s innovative underwater drone technology.
Key Topics Discussed
- Introduction to VATN Systems
- Guest: Nelson Mills discusses VATN Systems, which is focused on developing underwater drones for various applications, particularly in defense.
- Drone Features: The Torsk (commercial) and Skellmere S6 (defense) models are highlighted for their modular design, lightweight structure, and cost-effectiveness compared to existing technologies.
- Applications and Capabilities of Underwater Drones
- Operational Uses:
- Defense Applications: Data collection, reconnaissance, and potential electronic warfare capabilities.
- Commercial Uses: Environmental monitoring, offshore wind farms, and research initiatives.
- Comparative Cost: VATN's drones cost approximately $75k, significantly lower than traditional military drones priced around $500k.
- American Defense Landscape
- Discussion on the current state of the US Navy and comparisons with the Chinese Navy in terms of capabilities and the importance of innovative defense technology.
- The potential for robotics to reshape warfare, with a focus on reducing risks to human soldiers.
- Advancements in Robotics
- Exploration of new robot technologies, including a quadruped robot capable of rapid movement and versatility in challenging terrains.
- The implications for search and rescue operations and military uses.
- Klarna's Upcoming IPO
- Discussion on Klarna's journey from a valuation of $46 billion to filing for an IPO at much lower valuations amid market fluctuations and changing regulations.
- Insights into how fintech companies are adapting in a potentially less regulated environment.
- Future of AI and Employment
- Speculation on the impact of AI on job markets, particularly in sectors like logistics and healthcare.
- Discussion about the potential for job displacement versus job creation as technology advances.
Key Takeaways
- Innovation in Defense Tech: Companies like VATN Systems are leading the way in making advanced technologies affordable and accessible for military applications.
- Market Dynamics: The fintech sector, exemplified by Klarna, is poised for change as regulations evolve, presenting both challenges and opportunities for growth.
- Robotics and Automation: The rise of robotics and AI is likely to transform various industries, raising both excitement and concerns about the future of work.
- Sustainability and Environment: The use of drones for environmental monitoring emphasizes the intersection of technology and sustainability.
Conclusion
This episode highlights the rapid advancements in technology, particularly in the defense sector, and the burgeoning fintech landscape as companies adapt to changing market conditions. The discussion underscores the importance of innovation and its implications for the future of work and society.
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Sponsors
- Squarespace: Build your website and save using code TWIST.
- Lemon.io: Hire pre-vetted remote developers with a discount.
- Sprig: AI-powered product experience platform for continuous improvement.
Additional Links
- [VATN Systems Website](https://www.vatnsystems.com)
- [Klarna IPO News](https://www.klarna.com/international/press/klarna-announces-confidential-submission-of-draft-registration-statement-to-sec-for-proposed-initial-public-offering)
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This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing both a detailed account and broader context to the conversations on startups and technology.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00We don't focus too much on coming home after a long mission, to be honest. You know, it's anywhere from a few hours to potentially a day plus for the small vehicle. And then we're going to be announcing some bigger vehicles where you'll see much extended ranges. Also, the vehicles are fully modular. So you can kind of break it down and put it in a backpack right now. Oh, and kind of benefit of that is you can add like an extended battery pack and stuff like that, additional range. But wow. So the seals could have these in a backpack. They land in some gnarly area. They send this thing out. It gets them a bunch of data.
0:32then it helps enhance the mission or they could make something go boom. Yeah, it's a possible use case or you could be a researcher hiking some remote lake and throw it in there and... Find Loch Ness Monster. Yeah, exactly. It could be an incredible legacy for the company. Save Taiwan, find the Loch Ness Monster. I mean, either of these would be extraordinary accomplishments. This Week in Startups is brought to you by Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website. Go to squarespace.com slash twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code twist to save 10 % off your first purchase of a website or domain.
1:09Lemon.io. Hire pre-vetted remote developers. Get 15 % off your first four weeks of developer time at lemon.io slash twist. And Sprig, the product experience platform that generates AI-powered opportunities to continuously improve your product at scale. Visit sprig.com slash twist to book a demo and get a$75 gift card. Hey everybody, welcome back to This Week in Startups. With me again, Alex Wilhelm. I'm Jason Calacanis. We're here to talk about technology and it seems like American dynamism and even Chinese dynamism is alive and well. People are building a lot of physical things in the real world and we're going to get into it today with a lot of robots and a lot of vehicles.
1:55It's coming fast and furious, huh, Alex? It's coming fast and furious. And I'm just very excited as a consumer because I feel like, you know, phones have become so relatively static over the years that I just want something new, exciting, a form factor that blows my mind. Something that kind of brings me that sense of joy that I had when I got my first smartphone back in like the original iPhone days. So I'm optimistic and that feels nice. All right. Well, before we get to surgery robots and robots running through the woods in a completely new format that i had never seen before from china these robots chasing you through the woods in a dystopian hellscape um let's talk about uh let's interview our first guest here uh and uh talk about what he's building yeah so today on the show we have nelson mills one of the co-founders of a company called vaten systems that's spelled v-a-t-n if you want to look it up they are a company based here in Rhode Island, very proud to say, and they are working on underwater drone technology that will have both defense and commercial applications.
3:00And the company was just in the news because it raised a$13 million seed round led Jason by DYNE or Dine Ventures. Nelson, hey. Nelson, how are you? Hey, guys. Great to meet you. Thanks for having me on. Maybe we could pull up a video and some images of what you're building and you can just walk us through it here for the audience show us what you've built and walk us yeah so right here you're seeing um our engineers out testing and and working through through the vehicles themselves so we're seeing here is a man portable vehicle being carried by our cto right there and now it's running through the water um but you know our first product we call the uh torsk on the commercial side or the scalmure s6 on the uh defense side and it's a six inch diameter really lightweight weighed in a fraction of the cost of existing options with the ultimate goal of really building them at scale, which we're going to start next year and making it easy for one person to deploy a whole bunch of these and really control a multitude.
4:01So these Torsks look like torpedoes, but these do not have explosives in them. They look like a little missile, but I noticed the person putting them into the ocean from a dinghy, they look like they were in a Zodiac, needed only pick up two handles and drop it in the water so they are apparently pretty lightweight they look like they're about six i don't know seven feet long yeah and uh tell us about what the mission is for the torsk t-o-r-s-k yeah so torsk is our uh our commercial variant um mainly carrying sensors so it could be anything from side scan sonar to passive acoustic to other forms of environmental monitoring.
4:43Even cameras go collect data on the seafloor, whether that's for, say, offshore wind, oil and gas. NOAA, go collect environmental data, researchers. But I'll be honest, 95 % of our focus right now is defense. And we're really working on the Skellmere S6, which can also carry a variety of payloads. Some of them are similar sensors, but we, at the end of the day, built the truck and it's up to the customer to decide what payloads they want to implement and deploy on the vehicle, right? Are there other defensive applications apart from just putting an explosive at the tip of it as you would in perhaps a traditional torpedo, Nelson?
5:23Like, are there, I don't know, can it like launch stuff on its own out of the water, like smaller drones? I'm curious what you can put into it. Yeah. I mean, it's really the bounds of your imagination. So we've done sensors, just go like, look for objects, clear beaches. We've put on various electronic warfare modules to make it look like a decoy, whether it's an underwater decoy or the pop-up on the surface and suddenly it looks like there's a ship there. There's a whole bunch of use cases where it still makes sense as an intrudable system, right? The military can send it out, it can go do a non-kinetic effect or collect some data, and then they don't have to worry about risking people's lives to get it back.
6:02And that's really kind of the big motivating factor here is that our underwater systems are way too expensive. Break that down for me, because I'm presuming that this is usually a defense contracting boondoggle. So what does the military variant of a Torsk cost? And how does that compare to an existing system that you might buy from an existing defense prime? Yeah, you know, our price point is around 75k. And, you know, for a defense prime, you'd be looking at 500 ,000 plus dollars for an equivalent system. Yeah. So are they just stealing our money? I think there's just like a ton of inefficiency built into the system and their approach to it.
6:41And, you know, the kind of whole cost plus contracting methodology, right? And this is really what, you know, defense tech is about. It's like upending kind of that methodology. And then also like all those underwater systems, like the underwater drone market is 10, 15 years behind other drone markets. And they're all come out of research. It's like a researcher built one of these, and now they're trying to build a few a month, but it's never been built for scale production. They haven't done the things necessary in order to get the cost down. And from day one, we're going to build thousands of these, and we're going to vertically integrate the key components that lets us significantly reduce our bomb in addition to just the sheer quantity.
7:22Jason, this company has some of the fastest product velocity I've ever seen. It's one of your favorite things. So a year ago, they were just deploying their first AUV and now they've already moved from prototypes to fully operational systems, which I thought was incredibly impressive speed. Yeah. And what a great price relative to what military contractors spend on similar devices. And this speaks to how conflicts are changing. You have people using drones in the field, quadcopters we've seen that in ukraine we're hearing about it in a possible conflict with china over taiwan so not having to recover the tusk is a main feature of this it can just be used to collect information if the enemy captures it if it sinks to the bottom of the ocean it's not as big of a deal as a i don't know 100 million dollar plane or 25 million dollar boat or whatever it happens to be yeah four billion dollar sub or a billion dollar sub right yeah and so these things could collect what a sub could collect how deep can it go what's the range like how is it powered yeah and i'll you know be up front it's it's not a direct equivalent for a sub but um you know what we're doing is focusing the top 300 meters of the water and really producing effects and collecting data on littoral and kind of the top top part of the ocean environment there's a lot of people go deep and that's another way we really save money and differentiate ourselves yeah that's that's kind of the the primary primary focus there and there's really yeah like a big opportunity and if you control just underwater you basically control the surface and that's generally like our philosophy giving the military the tools to spread kind of control i guess control or power underwater um and we really like you know we're building something like 100 drones a year maybe underwater drones a year in the US, right?
9:18Like in terms of actual military drones. Oh yeah. Yeah. Total. That's a pathetic number. That's like backyard numbers. But going back to the depth point, does it go only going to 300 meters? Does that allow you to go faster underwater? I'm not sure about the result of more water on top pressure. And if that slows down travel and also increases in efficiency in terms of drag, it doesn't necessarily limit the speed you can go, but it is another kind of our differentiating features is that we go a lot faster than a traditional UUV. We don't go as fast as a torpedo, but we live in that space between UUV and torpedo and can really conduct a variety of missions.
9:56We're not limiting ourselves to just one. Your typical UUV right now cruises at like three to five knots and some of our vehicles can approach 30. What is a UUV? Unmanned underwater vehicle. Unmanned underwater vehicle. So that's the category uuv you're making one that goes particularly fast so this would go faster than a ship would be able to go or a submarine if it was on the surface or similar it depends on the the ship and um you know there's there's we have we you know ships in the u.s military that go really fast and subs are are quite fast too we're not necessarily trying to go after that think of like the kind of effect of the, you know, the PRC is 10 ,000 maritime militia vessels, right?
10:41That are just like basically armed fishing vessels. Like what do we do about that? They're not fast. Squarespace is the place to build a beautiful website. You know, we're huge fans of Squarespace here at this week in startups because every startup means a gorgeous website. People will judge a book based on its cover, but you don't have a ton of time. You don't want to waste cycles on doing something repetitive like creating a website. Oh my Lord, your team is busy building your product or service. Why not use the best and most powerful website builder ever created? And that's Squarespace. And they have a new AI powered design intelligence tool that's going to help you build something great, unique, and fast.
11:25And they've of course got an e-commerce engine built in. It's so simple to use with built-in payment technology. So if you're selling something online, you can start racking up that revenue right away. Squarespace will also give you all the tools you need, like an email campaign, donation capabilities, and of course, domains, analytics, SEO, all built in from day one. Squarespace has what your startup needs, and we can save you a few bucks. Squarespace.com slash twist for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch go to squarespace.com slash twist and get 10 off your first website or domain purchase again squarespace.com slash twist an amazing product that i personally use and endorse and the longest running supporter of this week in startups go ahead and tell them that you found out about squarespace from this week at startups now that we're on the ccp and and their navy they've been really um increasing the size of their navy and i i guess you're that's part of the premise of your company so i was just curious if you could educate us the audience as well just on the state of the tonnage and the number of vessels and the type of vessels that china is investing in because obviously they've got a pretty large southern coastline there and that area is uh the south china sea i guess is is a is a big debated area where we think the next major theater of war could occur so maybe just broad strokes what are we dealing with yeah i'm not necessarily an expert on the ccp's navy just to be up front but you know um the u.s navy uh has significantly more tonnage but in sheer number of ships and kind of spread in massive ships the uh ccp has been building rapidly and you know i think one of one of the issues we have in the u.s is like if a conflict happens, we can't produce our ships, our core systems fast enough, right?
13:19So what is the solution? And part of that, the thing we can build fast enough or we'll be able to build fast quickly is drones of all sorts, surface, underwater, air, et cetera. But there's really no platform manufacturer of underwater drones in the US right now. And that's what we want to be and want to do, right? So where are you going to build them? Because I know you're based in Portsmouth, Rhode Island, and I'm going to say Rhode Island as many times as I can on this episode just because I'm proud, but I'm curious if we have enough space and industrial capacity in our little state to actually support, you know, making thousands of these a year.
13:50So do you have to expand elsewhere in the U S? Yeah, we can, we can build thousands in, in Rhode Island and we're planning to like, we're already, we're already working on it. I think, you know, as you approach larger amounts, we probably will start to work with other States too, but you know, right. Rhode Island's an awesome place to be. There's great infrastructures here for, for manufacturing actually, and for defense. So yeah, we're excited about it. To explain that, we build submarines in Rhode Island. So we have a lot of the boat contracting world set up here. People don't know that. Now they do.
14:22Yeah. I'm very excited about that. And then my other question is about tonnage versus swarm. So you told Jason that the US Navy has more tonnage. I presume that's mostly held up in our aircraft carriers, which are enormous and nuclear powered and so forth. But just as a drone can take out a main battle tank, I presume that an underwater drone can undercut the power of a heavy traditional weapons system. So does the ability to build lots of these underwater drones obviate the concern that we have about American shipbuilding capacity compared to China? Because it seems like this is a better, cheaper, faster way and doesn't risk our sailors' lives.
14:57Yeah. I mean, it's part of the solution, right? I don't think we're getting rid of main warships anytime soon. And they have a significant place on the battlefield. But our goal is that we can take our warfighters farther away from the action with our vehicles. And we've seen how effective they can be in the Black Sea, right? Like that's been, you know, kind of a battle lab of maritime drones. And they've been mostly using surface vessels, which are, you know, a little bit more prone to interception. And they've still had great luck against these, you know, multi-hundred million dollar systems, you know, destroyers and et cetera.
15:33Can we set like a GoFundMe to buy stuff from Vaatan Systems so we can send them over to zelinski because you know i'm in i'm in for 50 bucks yeah i have to consult my lawyers on that one yeah so talk to us about raising money for defense tech because this seems to have been something 10 years ago the entire technology industry was maybe or the majority of the technology industry and venture capital industry wasn't going near this and then they start andro success and some other hardware successes spacex obviously uh being the tip of that spear and now all of a sudden venture capital is like hey there's something here it's not outrageous to give 13 million dollars to to a crazy team in rhode island to think that they compete with government contractors so maybe you can talk just a little bit about the climate around uh defense tech startups and your experience raising yeah no i mean there's no better time I think, to raise in defense.
16:33And I don't think it's going away anytime soon. It might reduce, there might be a little bit of a bubble. But I think the core of it is that defense is here to stay as a category in venture capital. But you're right. I would argue even less than 10 years ago, I can remember. I mean, I was an investor before this in 21, even... Yeah, like 21, I don't remember anyone talking about defense. I think the Ukraine conflict and seeing the impact technology can have there is really what threw on the kind of afterburners or whatever on this segment. I think Andrel did pave the way, but they were the lone voice in this space for a long time.
17:09Other people might have been doing defense contracts, but it was kind of something you didn't talk about, right? It's like, oh, we're doing this, but we don't want to tell our investors or anyone else, right? Or something like that. But yeah, that's completely... The switch has flipped and I think it's great. I mean, I think there's going to be a lot of companies and funds that fail in the space, but that's venture capital, right? There's going to be a lot of great success stories and there's going to be companies that fail through no fault of their own. There's going to be companies that fail through their fault in every which way.
17:40Well, I mean, it is, I think, if we're going to win the war, and I hate to wax poetic here about capitalism like I'm prone to do, but in an authoritarian government, a dictator can say, I'm going to just take these million people put them in a slave camp and tell them to build what i want them to build and that seems like a really amazing feature for their society to be able to use imminent domain and unlimited unchecked power to just accomplish goals and then you know you look at a democratic process which is quite messy because we've seen in the last week or i don't know last decade and so we can sit here and say like oh my god we're wasting time we're wasting time but freedom and capitalism democracy plus capitalism feels so messy and chaotic as you just described hey a bunch of these companies are going to die because they're incompetent but also through no fault of their own but a bunch of the smartest and brightest people who are given the job of capital allocation meeting with all these teams and saying hey which team do i want to back and why and then those teams trying to convince those people hey here's our strategy and here's what we've done here's why we're the best team to to bet on that basic competitive dare i say selfish uh approach that you believe you actually have the best solution and you believe you can bring the best team together and you can beat the other competitors on the playing field you know what that's very hard for a dictator to deal with because you can put a gun to people's head and say build but the motivation is going to be fear as opposed to a motivation which is opportunity and pride and competitiveness and that's just absolutely i know it's out of fashion to say this but competition and excellence is pretty awesome and i just want to applaud you for for doing this uh you could probably do something easier as a venture capitalist and start a company and you were in investing before this but i think that this could be you know what you're doing this entire movement this could be the difference between democracy increasing and democracy decreasing in terms of the number of people who are living in a system where they're allowed to vote and they're allowed to argue over their votes and did their votes count and how should their vote count we are so narcissistic and entitled that we have no idea how great it is that we can sit here and pick a leader and we can sit here and debate our voting.
20:15It's just a beautiful thing. I don't know if there's a question in there, but I just felt like I needed to get that off my chest. Yeah, I agree completely. I mean, part of the reason we beat the Soviet Union was because of the failure of their command economy, right? And our ability to innovate and grow and outspend. It's the same thing here. I always say that defense technology is necessarily about winning a war, it's about preventing the next war, right? It goes back to like a fundamental Sun Tzu quote of like, don't conduct a war until you know you can win. As long as we're innovating and putting the best technology on the field and can show that we will be a really tough opponent and they don't know if they can win, our adversaries don't know they can win, then there won't be a war, right?
21:02At least I don't think there will be. All right, founders, are you tired of doing all your own software development? Do you need help, but you can't afford all this time it takes to find great talent? Are you dreading the endless interviews and email chains just to find somebody great? It takes six months. It takes a year. Well, what you need is Lemon.io. Lemon.io has thousands. That's right. Thousands of on-demand developers who can help you. And they've done the work already to vet these developers, making sure that they're results-oriented and that they're super experienced. Of course, they got to have competitive rates, so they're going to take care of that as well.
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22:22That's right. And twist listeners get 15 % off the first four weeks. stop burning money, hire developers smarter and faster at lemon.io slash twist. On the war point, there's two things that I want to make sure we hit on before that you go, Nelson. One is autonomy. I know that you guys are building something called Instinct, which is going to be out in 2026, which is self-driving for underwater drones, I believe. And then also, we're talking a lot these days about swarming technologies, usually in the air, but also now in the water. And I presume that autonomy underwater is going to be clutch to actually having these drone swarms in the seas yeah so instinct is actually just our inertial navigation system and 2026 is it's released as an independent product but it'll be in our um yeah it'll be in our our vehicles much sooner than that or i mean it's already in our vehicles but we do we do our full stack of a you know our own autonomy and our own uh swarming software right um really single agent and multi-agent autonomy um and underwater is a space where it's autonomy first right like we have no way to control these vehicles like they're fully autonomous um once they go underwater you can't can't really communicate with them you can send like stop or like a new command or something like that but underwater comms are really limited so we saw that with that um tragedy with going to the titanic um most of the time when you send something into the deep water and you go a thousand feet deep or more you you can't communicate i guess unless there's a tether or there's some technology that you should send a text message underwater explain to the audience i mean we obviously understand there's a density of water it's hard to send signal over the air it's pretty easy but the density of water makes it near impossible so what's actually occurring there when you try to communicate with one of these things and it's a thousand feet down yeah so we use um kind of off the shelf acoustic communication technology It's just scaled to Acoms for short.
24:17And with that, you can send, like you said, text messages, like kilobytes per second. And you're typically range limited one to eight kilometers. Now there's some really cool technology and startups in this space. And I think that's going to improve quickly. But at the same time, like you run up to some barriers in physics, right? Like there's really cool, like light-based comms underwater, but you're talking about 100 to 200 meters. You can stream video, but you can't take it very far. Just the diffraction of light and water, you run into the barriers of physics. Honestly, I think it's good for us as a company because we can't pretend or we can't start with, oh, this is operated.
24:58From day one, we have to be autonomous. Yeah, you're going right to level five. There is no safety driver. there is no mission control specialist with a joystick who can take over for these things when they're at a certain depth but i assume they can talk to each other you know uh easier than talking to the services on the surface on some missions so that is kind of interesting that they could create some sort of a mesh network perhaps if you had 20 of these things and each were at different heights they could communicate with each other and then the final one could communicate in a a faster way with the surface, yeah?
25:34Yeah, exactly. You hit the nail on the head. One can be on the surface and act as that relay or an unmanned surface vessel or even a manned surface vessel can act as that relay to underwater and communicate with a swarm or a mesh of the vehicles. And the vehicles themselves can also act as a kind of an underwater comms relay that's really hard to jam. That's another kind of our use cases. Lots of interesting things you can do on that front. And, you know, we do use the ACOMs for the vehicles to coordinate among themselves too. And that's kind of one of our - How long of a mission can they last for?
26:07Because there was a sail drone company, I remember, I think Jamaf maybe had invested in it. It had solar. It was a surface-based vehicle. They could go all around the planet. I'm sure you've seen it and collect information. With yours, I'm assuming there's some sort of battery pack in here, but how long is this thing going to be able to go for? And then if they complete their mission, can they go to the surface, charge up with some solar and then come home eventually how does it work yeah um we don't focus too much on uh coming home after a long mission to be honest but um uh we you know it's anywhere from a few hours to potentially a day a day plus for the small vehicle and then we're going to be announcing some bigger vehicles where you'll see extended very much extended ranges also the vehicles are fully modular so you can kind of break it down and put in a backpack right now and the kind of benefit of that is you can add like an extended battery pack and stuff like that in an additional range but wow so the seals could have these in a backpack they land in some gnarly area they send this thing out it gets them a bunch of data then they can it helps enhance the mission or they could make something go boom yeah yeah it's a possible use case or you could be a researcher hiking some remote lake and throw it in there and find Loch Ness Monster yeah yeah exactly it'd be incredible legacy for the company all right but save taiwan find the lochus monster exactly i mean either of these would be extraordinary accomplishments yeah i want to do one more question nelson before we let you go because you just mentioned size and i'm very curious because what you're currently building is cool because you can carry it around it looks like a torpedo but how big will gen 2 and gen 3 be of what vaden builds because i'm curious if this get to like half sub size?
27:47Yeah, we're not going crazy big, but more will be released next year. You guys can have me back and I'll tell you all about it next year. I'll have you back when you debut it. Listen, continued success with this. It's super important. And I think just, you know, as Americans, it's just a great feeling to know that there are teams who believe in protecting the country and protecting democracy. I know some people are, you know, we're all for peace, but peace through strength is, i think what this is going to take and we all know full well nukes uh you know are one level of deterrent but man if we get into one of these serious conflicts and we have to we need to have a different type of equipment for the same theater but it's going to be a very different movie isn't it yeah exactly we've been living in uh pox americana since you know since world war ii and we need to keep that going yeah yeah peace through strength uh and uh we'll see you soon nelson thank you so much for coming on thank you for having me on yeah continuous success oh and are you hiring right now we are hiring a ton of people what's the difficult position because you know we always do a good job of helping people find elite talent yeah i mean if you're an amazing uh inertial nav engineer guidance navigation pull engineer you know come email me you know literally there is somebody listening who knows somebody works in guidance and uh who would love love to live in the Northeast, Rhode Island, incredible place.
29:10Awesome. We have a great GMC team and looking to add some awesome folks to it. Awesome. I'll talk to you soon. Well done. Talk soon. All right. You want to build products that users love. And we all know product market fit is how you know you've built something special. And if you're hunting for product market fit, you need to understand your users better, right? How else could you boost engagement and drive more conversions for your product? Well, product analytics alone is not going to get you there. So let me tell you about Sprig. Sprig is a product experience platform that generates AI-powered opportunities to continuously improve your product at scale.
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30:25How nice. Sprig, S-P-R-I-G.com slash twist. I just love this new format we're doing where we get these entrepreneurs on real quick, talk about what they're doing, and then get right to the news. This format of interview, then getting into the news, we get to be super efficient for those of you who listen three times a week, four times a week. Yeah. It's funny though, because it always forces me to learn a lot while we get these people on, prep them, go through the graphics, figure out the technology. And then I do all this work, Jason, to know good questions to ask, to help explain to the audience and then what i do is i go off script and i try to explain ocean physics in the middle of my question about drag and make a complete horse's ass of myself no you don't you don't i mean one of the great things we can do here i think is you know get people information efficiently and and i think the american dynamism movement and if you listen to this pod you're just going to understand the trends because that's what we do for a living is just try to understand where the puck is going and skate to that place what you're seeing here is hardware is hard how However, venture capitalists are starting to learn which hardware categories could build a sustainable business.
31:38Now, if you're in the consumer space and you build something that's a commodity, like a webcam, it's going to be very hard for you to compete against what will eventually happen, which is the same factory in Shenzhen that makes your Nest camera is going to make literally a$29 version of what you're selling for$2.99. and they're going to take the bottom half of the market and they don't care if they have a 5 % margin and you're trying to operate with a 50 % margin, 30 % margin, et cetera. But VCs also know that platform companies that have customers with deep pockets and complex problems, those are more sustainable.
32:13And so I brought up density. We had them on the show recently, Andrew, with a hockey puck called the waffle that does people counting. Well, they're building an entire platform. When you build an entire platform and you solve a really important problem which is like understanding the density of space and how space is used this is a lot at stake your company will survive but when they started that company density alex they were at phil's coffee in san francisco just counting the number of people coming in and out and the potential application was knowing how busy it was which by the way google does now by just tracking how many phones go into a location you know it's not spyware exactly but it's not exactly not spyware they know how busy a place is based on the number of google maps people who just entered it so your your data is being put to good use so you know i don't know if you've ever seen that i i have the little chart on uh yeah how crowded is the place that was original vision of density and it got solved by you know uh the android operating system having google maps ubiquitous putting all that aside it is hardware is hard but if you pick the right customer and you have the right vcs they can help you manage it and that's what we're seeing here only 13 million to start a defense contractor oh yeah it's pretty amazing but when you think about it how many people do you need and that's the second trend i wanted to build up you know hardware is hard but is one trend okay we all know hardware is hard but there's a caveat there when it's when it's possible the second piece is commodification of sensor technology you know the cost of the batteries he's putting in there are really cheap because of electric vehicles and tesla tesla's vehicles and electric batteries and they are very cheap because of iphone batteries hitting scale and iphone batteries are very cheap because uh previous to those laptop batteries got better and better so you can watch laptop batteries give way to electric vehicles give way to iphone and now give way to these he doesn't have to do anything in gps batteries and you know with 3d printing and a team you can and we have a company desktop metal we're investors in that lets you do 3d printing of metals and all kinds of different fabrication all that technology is now getting to the point where prototyping this stuff and even building commercially viable things can happen at much smaller scales with less investment yeah and i think the margin point is super critical because your webcam example is great there's very little margin left there desktop computer monitors dell has crushed that very little margin no point going after that but when he told us that these same technologies cost$500 ,000 from a major defense contractor and they're doing for 75.
34:50That's a hell of a lot of margin to go attack. And what did Jeff Bezos say about margins? Well, they're opportunities if you're attacking them. So yes, your margin is my opportunity was the quote. Yeah. Yeah. I'm really excited about this, but let's get the hardware theme going. Yeah, please. Jason, you have found a plethora of interesting bits of technology in the last couple of days. We have compiled them and we're going to start with my second favorite, which is LG's new stretchable screen. Now, if you're not familiar with stretchable screens, it turns out these have existed for a while, Jason, but they only had like 20 % stretchability.
35:25Now LG's can do 50 % stretching from 12 to 18 inches. I think this is super cool, but I wonder how expensive it is to make, but I think it's awesome. You know, the reason I shared this was because they're really starting to make progress on monitors and uh screens and if you look at a foldable phone movement that went from being like science fiction to you know every time i go to a meeting especially in the middle east by the way people had these because there's um android is loved in the middle east one and number two there is a status culture um these are incredibly high-end consumers who love to buy the latest gadget they're incredibly tech savvy they're very plugged in and i noticed so many people had the i think it's um samsung and then the pixel had the ones that open up but then also have like a third screen on the front yeah i looked at that and i demurred when i saw the price like these were like two grand yeah that's a lot to you know get like another screen that you know whatever anyway putting that aside i think the foldable stuff it's kind of gimmicky but it's getting close to being interesting what i like about this is i believe this is going to open up wearables in a major way so whenever they show these the thing i think that's going to really be interesting is when you have a jacket or a bangle you know like you know what a bangle is yeah you're aware of a bangle yeah it's like a thick bracelet yeah yeah you know how you look at your watch you get this little tiny screen but imagine if your whole forearm give you information or you held it.
37:07I'm holding my palm up now. And so you and I are in a conversation. I've got my hands in front of my face right now for those listening. And I'm looking down at my arms. You're going to have AirPods in to talk to you. You might have glasses on to interpret the world and you might on your jacket. Why couldn't Apple make a jacket? They're really into fashion now, right? They made these very fashionable wristbands. They made a jacket that had an iOS screen where you could get your just your notifications and just swipe them back and forth. this is coming and you know what if you if you want to look it up there's military uh applications for a long time discrete communication covert communication without breaking reality communication and this is happening in airpods right now i told you the story of these airpod 4s have a game-changing feature of all game-changing features it says notification from alex from slack production room read it and i go like this and i nod and when i'm on my hike around the ranch in the morning when you post the docket for today i'd not and i it gets read to me oh this is fascinating i don't have to take my phone out of my pocket and i'm getting informed and i'm still doing my hike i think this would be the application for these is going to be really curving these onto either furniture or clothing you can have like a really a lot of interesting applications are coming for this technology i think it's ready to cars there people are going to wrap their car in these flexible screens.
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38:31And they're going to be incredibly loud and annoying and not tasteful. And I'm excited about that because I love crass. We just put a flagpole on our house just because we wanted to. But why do I have to swap out my flags? Why can't I just have a flag made out of screen and then have it do whatever I want? So I'm very excited about this. LG is a South Korean company. If you want to look more into this, there's notes all over the web. Hard recommend. Jason, why don't we next talk about the robot you teased? Because I feel like we shouldn't leave people hanging. But there is a robot that is dog-shaped, but acts a little bit more like a quad.
39:05You might drive around the ranch. This is super interesting. What we're seeing here is from Deep Robotics, they announced a new quadruped model? Quadruped. Quadruped. Oh, okay, there it is. Quadruped, yeah. So there's a quadruped. What's interesting about this one is it's got wheels. It looks like the dog one that walks around that we've all seen a million times from Boston Dynamics. Other people have it. Yeah, but this one has the ability to stand upright and roll down steps. And literally, this thing can just fly down a mountain, you know, on a trail with rocks that a mountain biker would need to have some dexterity to do.
39:47And I guess because of the way it's designed and the flexibility can go extremely fast and flip itself over upright, it can lower itself to get better aerodynamics, etc. etc and again back to warfare you can imagine you know these things chasing a platoon and boom game over i think it's going to be a staple in warfare i don't know other use cases for this if you can think of them i would think search and rescue is going to change forever because you could probably drop this from a helicopter now imagine somebody's lost in the woods or somebody's been injured a plane you could drop 10 of these things in 10 different ravines and just tell it search yeah if you find a human take a picture and send your gps coordinates and you know finding people lost in a forest fire and sending firefighters out that's over you just send 10 of these things in yeah they're going to be able to search for 24 hours 48 hours and uh if you lose a couple to the fire no big deal you lose a couple firefighters that could be somebody's mom or dad or brother or sister so yeah i just think this is got a really some interesting missions again when we talk about these technologies, I like to think about what's the mission.
40:58Yeah. What I love about this is it's a combination of stuff we've seen. So you're right. It is essentially like the Boston Dynamics robot dog, but with wheeled feet, which makes it able to flip over and turn around, which makes it kind of emulate those old children's RC cars that had four big wheels and could flip over and didn't matter which side was pointed up. It's kind of like a combination of like advanced military technology and children's toys brought into one package. But Jason, these are just back to the Voughton example, mobile sensor platforms, like basically whatever you want to do with them, they can go out and do it for you because they're not restricted by height gaps.
41:34You know, if they run into a log, they can just go over it. No need to even worry about balance. I think it's really awesome. And if you're curious about deep robotics, I did a little research. They are based in Hangzhou and they're actually called something else in Chinese, but they go by deep robotics on the English web. And I don't know how much they've raised but they did disclose a b plus round series b plus which i think translates to a series b extension but mostly the information on them is in chinese but i hope after this viral moment we do learn more about the company because certainly i hadn't heard of them and now that i've seen them i want to know a lot more i love it yeah it's a pretty cool stuff coming out of china and interestingly it dovetails with our with our guest nelson earlier that how war occurs is going to be how many of these uh swarms can you build not just how many of the units but like if a swarm equals a hundred of these how many hundreds can you build and uh that's the new tonnage is the number of swarms and if you could swarm can you imagine 10 000 of these things landing on the beaches in taiwan i mean this would be crazy um and i was i was looking up you know famous battles right and you start thinking about landing on the beach in normandy sure or uh some of the other pacific battles that were notable uh with the japanese these things would have changed everything uh about those and so that's i don't know what you think but does this mean less humans die and we just send our robots to fight each other you're you're a fan of the science fiction what did science fiction people think i hate to put you on the spot i know you got a lot of knowledge in space but again i'm filibustering to give you a little time but um do more or less people die when we build these swarms and robots well you're essentially asking uh will more civilians die because if we replace individual soldiers with robots yes that will limit in theory combatant deaths but if we have a robot swarm versus robot swarm battle in the middle of a town civilians are going to get shot to pieces so i i think yes in terms of limiting uh the military casualties people in the army the navy the marines etc but i don't know this would actually limit overall loss of light.
43:49On the science fiction point, two things come to mind. One is the Asimov world of robotics and the rules thereof. He wrote famously, the three rules of robotics. None of that applies here, because that is all about how robots cannot harm humans. Whereas here, I feel like we're talking about how robots will be able to impact human conflict. So I don't think that applies. The other thing that comes to mind is the forever war, which is by, I had to look this up, Joe Haldeman, which describes how humans will handle not just future conflicts, but also future interstellar conflicts. And the lesson from that book, at least as far as that author put it together, was that humans would remain pretty central to human warfare.
44:26So, I'm sure there's other examples than Science Fiction University, Jason. Those are the two that came to mind first, but I think it's still an improvement to have robots killing robots with some civilian casualties than to have humans killing humans with some civilian casualties. I know that sounds a little macabre. I hate to give any spoilers here if you were going to read Ender's Game, but isn't the concept of Ender's game as a bunch of video game playing kids are playing a video game that actually mimics a real world space battle and they're doing it remotely? Yes. So the end of that book is Ender Wiggin, the protagonist, going through a series of what he thinks are simulations that are tests of his, not leadership abilities, but tactical prowess.
45:08And then it turns out at the very end that he has been leading human ships in fights It's using a technology called the Ansible, which allows for instantaneous communication. Anyways, yes. And there's other stories that have a very similar bent. So people have been thinking a lot about how we can take humans out and put robots in either autonomously or with human direction. But we only have one planet, you know, right now. So I do hope that even as we build cooler weapons technologies, we use them to pursue peace through strength and not adventurous war. Nobody wants to start wars. um and i i do think showing that we're making these things is will be enough to avoid most conflicts and you know when we drop a bunker buster somewhere it does seem like people tend to get the message and i think that's a part of this right now and i'm not a warmonger but if somebody invades another country and you drop a big piece of ammunition they tend to pay attention and if I can tell you, man, if you're, these terrorists must be, after what we've seen in the Middle East of late, with the pagers blowing up, you know, like, I don't know that I want to join a terrorist organization if they can get to me so easily, right?
46:19Yeah. Well, also, I was blown away by that story for the cybersecurity element, the long-term planning. But also, I was just blinking, I'm like, pagers? Is this 1984? Like that, like the choice of technology that they had picked, they must have picked because it was low tech, right? I think they picked it probably because they went on a website. Literally, I think they went on like Alibaba and looked for a private paging network that they could leverage thinking they were smart. And I think the backstory here was they knew they were buying pager technology from somewhere and they either intercepted it at the order in China and infiltrated that company or they infiltrated it on route, i.e.
47:00maybe those came in a container ship to a port and they figured out a way to unbox them, put the ammunition in them, seal them, rebox them and have them delivered, which is like an interesting message. if you want to know how hacking occurs, three-letter agencies are pretty good at intercepting your iPhone order, and then your iPhone comes to your house, and you unpack it. Unknowingly, it had already been unpacked and repacked with a chip in it that is taking pictures of your screen independent of the OS operation. They can put that in there to literally take pictures of your screen, pack it up, and through a separate radio that's been put into your phone, send screenshots of your phone.
47:42yeah lest you think there's not an easy way to do this because you're using oh you know whatever signal etc yeah there are many ways to intercept something you could put into the average keyboard a keyboard logger sure you think you're unhackable and like literally every keystroke is being sent to somebody so the way this was explained to me back in the days of snowden the nsa leaks and when we learned quite a lot about our domestic capabilities in uh in digital surveillance was you can try to keep yourself secure and you, the individual can do a pretty good job if you're smart, you know, strong passwords, password managers, VPNs, you know, the standard array of things.
48:20But the other thing I was told was if a sophisticated nation state wants to surveil you wants to hack you, yeah, you're pretty much screwed. Anyways, surgery robots, you found an awesome clip from John Hopkins university that shows off robots that have watched other surgical robots from tasks and can then mimic them with pretty insane precision. And I have to say, I went into this little segment thinking that I was going to hate this and not want it. But after actually watching, I think I'm going to be fine getting robot surgery in 10 years. Yeah, what's really interesting about this is these robots were trained not to pick up the needle.
48:56They watched just a hundred hours of footage of people doing surgery. And so for people watching don't worry this is a piece of chicken that they're doing surgery on or it's a fake piece of plastic that they learned to do surgery on and what you're seeing here pause it right there if you don't mind and what you're seeing is there's tying a knot in surgery right and so they're using pork loin here uh and uh when when it's tying the knot they try to distract it and so if you just scrub backwards just a wee bit here um what you'll see is a screwdriver comes in and this is tying the knot and it knows to tie the knot based on having watched movies before of surgeons working it did not ever see a screw come into place nor did it know a procedure for dropping a needle in other words somebody did not write code a language model an llm of some type consumed this information processed it and it learned to ignore interference it also learned when you're looking at this again don't worry this is not human flesh it doesn't look better that it's chicken man it still looks a little uh and if you if you scrub backwards there's another scene here where it shows side by side two different cuts of meat there it is and like one's chicken one's pork loin the chicken is got a bunch of marbled fat on it the other side is pretty lean the pork the cut of it i'm getting hungry now yeah what's interesting about this is again it was never trained on how to do different cuts of meat and different views it just figured that out and so we will have a surgeon a robotic surgeon right in the in this robotics has been going on for decades where they can do very tiny things with robotics now it's going to be whoever the greatest surgeon is in the world will become uh studied along with the other 20 great ones in each field and there's going to be one surgery robot that they'll make 10 000 of and send to 10 000 cities and every city will have the greatest surgeon you used to have to go to a specific city to get surgery uh and now it's going to be one amazing pilot flying all the planes in the world one perfect surgeon doing all the surgeries in the world and one perfect driver driving all the cabs in the world all of those professions will be replaced 100 with ai and if you're not paying attention it's happening a little faster than people think yeah the other place i think this fits in really well is places you don't have surgeons like if you're on like a container ship right for across the Atlantic journey.
51:44That takes time. Can you get a helicopter to come get you if you have a problem? Probably not. What if you have an appendicitis? Well, wouldn't it be great to have an onboard surgeon that knew how to do the top, I don't know, Jason, 150 procedures. I don't think they're going to be doing the most complicated stuff to start, but if you could do even just the big things that come up in commercial industrial settings, that's huge and lower costs. That means you can take them around the world, bring them to markets where doctors only come in for like visits to do work and so forth. So it democratizes care, makes people more safe, seems to be kind of awesome.
52:19And also has made me a little bit less interested in eating the chicken breast for at least three or four days because that was kind of gross. What you bring up back to science fiction is literally my favorite sci-fi film. I don't know if you knew this, but I think my favorite science film, you know, after Blade Runner in Prometheus, one of the. yeah such a good film isn't it i like it what i love about prometheus is uh you know it sort of explains where the um engineers came from and what their motivation were in prometheus there's a scene to exactly your point when they're going halfway across the universe yes she's pregnant spoiler alert not a baby it's not a traditional baby and she gets into a biopod you can see her programming the pod so she's got something growing inside of her and she gets in there and does a manual procedure and she's talking to the computer this is literally becoming what we're seeing out of john hopkins yeah they're showing a robot learning how to do surgery from videos of other surgeons and as you're talking about you're on a ship something happens you need to i think we'll probably stop it here the best science fiction film though jason i think might be sunshine the 2007 film about restarting the sun if you haven't seen that hard fantastic isn't it yeah that was a really great one there's an ipo filing we should just at least mention it and because it's was done quietly but this is a big one folks i i again don't want to like make the show too political here but i think that this the timing of this is related in some ways to the newfound business optimism that we talked about on this show would happen if trump won doesn't mean you have to love trump doesn't mean i'm endorsing him but he has signaled to the market that there'll be less regulation and the good times will roll here we go so we're talking about clarna which is a swedish buy now pay layer fintech giant uh for those of you who are product nerds more than financial nerds clarna does a lot more than just bnpl today they have their own card they built their own shopping app to help people actually do commerce.
54:29And they're moving Jason into banking with something called Klarna Balance. Anyways, the point is they're widening the aperture a bit, but everyone knows them for their BNPL work. This is a company that went up to a$46 billion valuation back in 2021, only to see it crash down to like$6.7 billion in 2022. But Jason, I've been tracking this company nearly quarterly, thanks to its disclosures, and it's had a pretty strong financial glow up and now it has filed privately to go public comma everything you're saying is true and i think the reason why it's filing now is not just optimism but also because some of its comps affirm paypal and sezzle have also appreciated greatly in the last two weeks okay so fintech has boomed whether it's crypto robin hood coinbase affirm uh max levchin's uh company that does buy now pay later um i think clarta was the original version of that and so that whole category people believe hey maybe the financial uh regulations will be lower so something like buy now pay later would have less regulations or you know your the ability to charge people a late fee on an account not that cloner necessarily does that i don't know if they do or they don't but those type of things are that kind of regulation is going to be removed or more fluid so all of those things appreciated massively i saw my robin hood shares went way up yeah and i had bought doge i've only bought two cryptocurrencies in my life doge at like i think 19 cents and i was a loser for many years on that trade and now my money's doubled and then it's 40 cents not bad my wife put the bitcoin trade in we were all talking about it constantly and i had some bitcoin the place we had it got hacked and that the those went away um but then the one she bought at a hundred dollars a share a hundred dollars a coin we still have nice coin broke ninety thousand dollars it's going to be a major trade for our family i can't believe that you know um this is happening but here we go and i you know i i wonder what's going on here yeah i have a lot of questions about the uh depth and um uh honesty of a lot of crypto trading because there's a lot of wash trading and other sorts of uh manipulation painting the tape yeah yeah at the same time though um i think with stuff like bitcoin etfs and now you know we're seeing ethereum etfs as well we're also seeing you know uh stable coins like usdc and they've also have a euro coin a euro stable coin it really does seem like there's an open door now to experimentation and trying things i will just remind everyone that interest in horowitz wrote about their kind of crypto thesis recently, and they are very optimistic, but they cautioned that there's still work to be done.
57:17Just electing somebody doesn't change the rules. There's still probably needful legislation and so forth. But I do think that the expectation of reduced regulation and therefore the ability to charge higher fees, more frequent fees, and just take more money as a fintech player is driving the share price appreciation at a firm, et cetera. and what that does jason and i know you can explain this better than i could is it makes clarna able to go out at a higher valuation for free because its comps have been repriced by the market so it can probably sell for a higher price you know whoever the last investors in have like probably some downside protections in their documents when they made the investment and i think the last investment was at 14 billion or something if i remember correctly and if you look at that valuation maybe the public comps would have been 5 billion or 10 billion and so the people who are the last investors probably said yeah let's just keep building i don't want to go public convert when you go public in the weeds technical thing everybody converts to common shares everybody has the same class of shares so if they have protective provisions in their shares that say hey we have some downside protection we're guaranteed to get our shares out at this valuation, and if we don't, we get extra shares.
58:29That creates an untenable situation, because let's say they bought, I don't know, 5 % of the company. Okay, they put$750 million in at a $15 million valuation, they own 5 % of the company. When it goes public, they need to have, depending, I don't know if this is the case here, but it wouldn't be uncommon for them to say, when we go public, we have to have 5 % of the shares at a minimum. Or if they had a liquidation preference, maybe they have to have double that, 10%. Well, if the company goes public at 5 billion, because that's the comps of the other companies and they have to have 10 % of that.
58:58Now you've got a little bit of an issue, right? Because they paid 750, but you know, how much do they have to own in order to have$750 ,000? They've got to own more than 10%. They've got to own like 15%, right? So it's just, which would be dilutive to the other shareholders. So now you've got the standoff. And that's one of the things that's being worked out now as the market comes up or people get tired of being stuck in an investment, maybe they say they're willing to come to the table and negotiate that down to get their liquidity. Can I tell you though why I want to be full throttle optimistic about this, but I'm actually a little bit concerned and not talking about Klarna because I've been tracking Klarna for a long time.
59:40And honestly, I think they've done a great job cutting their losses, reducing their operating expenses, getting to break even profitability and reigniting growth. Shout out to them. It's been a really good job and I'm going to give them points for it. But my concern is that it took a market that was already compared to historical norms expensive an election of a business-friendly candidate at least in theory and then an appreciation from that point to get clarna out the door and filed and that means that the number of things that have to line up to get the public markets rich enough to get some of these unicorns out are kind of rarefied and what happens if things go down by 10 does that mean no ipos next year jason i'd cry uh i think it's just the overpriced ones that raised at sky high zerp valuations that'll be stuck in this indigestion uh and they're they'll be stuck in customs basically as they try to yeah get through and get their passport stamp the other thing i'll note is um who were the group riddle me this who were the group of people who showed up in this election in a way that hadn't previously shown up young men young men okay what are young men like to do vodka yes and they actually don't drink as much as they used to uh they like gambling on crypto oh yes and they like draft kings if young men showed up and young men own crypto and we're in this afterglow i think there's a bit of euphoria going on right now perhaps even mania and people are buying doge they're buying bitcoin they're buying robin hood i wonder if what we're seeing is the young man trade why mca young man you don't need to be down young man your cryptos up off the ground okay so draft kings has appreciated from uh pretty much 36 bucks shared of 42 but it's still down on a six month basis what is it on like a month basis because it kind of became clear trump was going to win about a month ago 11 in the last uh one month of trading okay so that was appreciated in the last month how much is bitcoin appreciated and how much is Robinhood appreciated?
1:01:47Those would be other ones to look at. And so literally 30 days ago. Let's do Monday, November 4th. Robinhood was 24 bucks a share. Today it's 33 bucks a share. That's relatively sharp gains. Bitcoin, I have a seven-day number right in front of me. It's up 24 % in the last seven days. It's probably a little bit more over 30 days, but a lot of appreciation. There's a flip side to this though. There was a really interesting article about, i think it was like sports betting in brazil that you can now do on a mobile basis and there's a lot of people who are loan sharking people to lend more money to keep gambling and they're paying like 400 on those loans anyways the gist is yes people love this stuff but it it does remind me a little bit of the the 2021 you know mania remember when stock x the the shoe reselling company was like opening more and more facilities everyone was into collectibles right what was the big nft company that became worth like 10 billion dollars immediately ape yacht club and that was part of yugo labs yugo labs became huge and then there was a website for trading them a marketplace for trading them that also became got picked up on this open sea yeah open sea right so all of those were like going to be like tops trading cards plus plus plus plus plus plus and uh the bottom fell out i think in that market big time that would be when you know mean is fully returned if the price of board apes or those pixelated i think crypto punks the original crypto punks yes crypto thank you you know all this stuff that's why you're here crypto punks and yeah the board ape yacht club man just shows you like we live through a literal tulip mania that mania was so sharp and so amazing and people really thought that it had tons of staying power i think that the current mania has more legs i think sports betting will have a longer lifespan than the nft realm so i don't know if it gets up to the same why do you think that oh because people have been betting on sports since the roman days i mean we've been racing chariots in an oval and now we just call it nascar right well and it's connected to a real world event right so there's something yes there's entertainment value to it and that i think is what was missing from the nft stuff is there's no entertainment value to it like um the closest thing to an entertainment value to it was when they did those drops where they mutated do you remember that concept this was the famous you can use multiple slurp juices on one ape tweet yeah everyone was talking about um can i just say though and i look we on this show are generally i would say net bullish right we're optimistic about the future cautiously yeah well i'm trying to not but the point is i'm not bullish on nfts that of that variety and so i'm kind of glad we've left that speculative moment behind but i am optimistic about more people owning equities and bonds and maybe blue chip cryptos if you want uh we have a little exposure through the fidelity bitcoin etf oh so you're happy about this appreciation i i did have a funny moment when i announced on my sub stack that i was going to buy some bitcoin on a regular basis just to have some of it in our portfolio and then the next day it dropped like 10 you know i'm really interested to see you know my understanding of residential politics is and these new administrations is you tend to get whatever you're going to get done in the first two years not the last two years and then when you do get stuff done you tend to get one or two things done as an as an administration you kind of can't do everything and so if we look at the promise set crypto is one of them fixing immigration is one of them uh reducing government the department of government efficiency doge that vivek and elon are going to run apparently as advisors for some number of months 18 months or something and they're going to create a leaderboard i love this idea and i actually punched up the leaderboard idea on x i said they should make a leaderboard of not only the people wasting money who get caught doing it and name and shame them if they're doing corrupt stuff and then on the other side the heroes who actually say i know of waste like not exactly whistleblowers but hey i knew we were wasting money so i got rid of uh this real estate nobody's using at the fbi or the department of education or this uh and i thought like this is a very innovative thing but i wonder how much they can execute are they going to get one thing done two things done three things done and what would those things be is i guess the real question well i think then what impact they'll have yeah tariffs is the other one yeah well crypto is easy i think all you have to do is take garrigan's letter out put in someone who's pro and stop suing people and it's kind of off to the races so that to me seems to be pretty doable also through executive action seem to be pretty likely john thune just won um the gavel in the senate he's the new senate majority leader he is relatively anti-tariff so that can be difficult to get through Congress.
1:06:43On the doge point, what I'm curious about is how much they're willing to make Republicans mad. Because to make an example that I always come back to, we have a lot of M1 Abrams tanks, MBTs, main battle tanks. And the army at one point in time wanted to reduce the number of MBTs they had in storage because they didn't need that many. Well, what does that mean to the congressional district where those tanks are stored? So it ended up that the Congress told the army too bad you're keeping the tanks so you know there's it's not as easy as oh my god look i found these bureaucrats and they're all playing solitaire in their cubicle there's a lot of thorny political and local issues that are going to come up and two trillion dollars is an enormous cut so i don't know who knows i mean in that number i wonder if that's per year or in this administration we do 2 trillion in cuts and it's 500 billion for four years or it's 200 billion for 10 years because we've kind of set this in motion i think any progress on this it was my number one issue i hope that government wasteful spending becomes the issue that the trump administration succeeds on and that they're known for and i hope the thing that they're not known for just my personal belief folks is that they don't get known for mass deportations of hard-working immigrants have no problem getting rid of the criminals by all means but i do think that could wind up creating so much chaos i'm i don't know if you have this in your community or whatever but there is a sense of dread and concern right now amongst a number of people i've spoken to about the deportation concept this mass deportation and so i don't know if it has an impact on our industry in any way but i do sense that people are concerned they're going to lose a nanny a housekeeper a restaurant worker any of those frontline workers could be lost and then people are confused because americans won't take those jobs and then who's going to fill them right Right, it's going to be heavily inflationary on the labor cost side.
1:08:53Jason, are you, I'm going somewhere with this, roll with me, are you religious at all? I grew up Catholic, I am spiritual but not religious. Fair enough. I grew up Lutheran, and now I'm an antithetist, so I'm taking it a little bit further than you have. But, you know, I was raised in the American Christian tradition, and one of the things that was, you know, drilled into my head very politely by reading the scriptures was the importance of being kind and loving to your neighbor. yeah and to me we can debate policy points and use of the national guard and sanctuary cities and all this but i feel like we're failing that test in this conversation and so the sense of dread that you are outlining it meshes with how i feel about it because i don't think that people who want to get their way on this issue in the trump administration steven miller and so forth are uh care right about their neighbors i think they're vindictive is for americans and americans only was the quote and i just thought to myself well isn't that the opposite of everything i was taught america's for immigrants to come and make a new life for themselves if they work hard and so yeah sorry liberty doesn't have a middle finger yeah i kind of still believe in it i do want the people to come in legally of course i i do think this will become the debate of the next two years is how do we do this compassionately and thought yeah and so you know we'll be tracking this immigration issue because it does impact uh the business in the industry massively i think one of the thesis or a thesis that i've been hearing is there is a belief that there is going to be massive job destruction uh because of ai and that we are suddenly going to go from this 4 % unemployment to 14 % because of AI.
1:10:44And I just described it with surgeons. So I can't be two-faced on this issue. I just said, there's going to be like a lot of surgeries being done by robots and a lot of self-driving cars and a lot of pilots that are autonomous. Now that could be occurring 5 % of the work a year for 20 years. Who knows? And then there's going to be more consumption. So who knows how it nets out, but I don't know what you think of that theory. that people want to export 15 million people because they want American companies to be forced to raise wages, ostensibly a good thing, in order to fill those positions with Americans who are about to lose their jobs as truck drivers, as cab drivers, as cashiers, as perhaps even knowledge workers, or even professions like a surgeon.
1:11:40seems farcical, right? But this is a system, right? We're talking about a system, not one component. There's a massive system here. What do you think of this theory? Well, one of the biggest professions in the United States is driving trucks, right? If you look at the most popular professions across many states, truck drivers are very high up there. So let's say we turn to all autonomous trucking, which I think you and I both think is the direction we're going in. And you take all of those people, which were, by the way, Trump voters, ironically, and say, okay, well, you're going to go now be short order cooks at restaurants and you're going to get paid mostly in tips and you now work these hours.
1:12:14I don't know if there's going to be a direct translation of AI eliminated jobs and then those people being willing to take jobs that historically were staffed by immigrant and migrant labor. There might be some really tough gnashing of teeth about that. I don't know if that would be politically palatable. And so I wonder if there's going to be an extension of the current populist movement, if you will, into protectionism. And I think that does nest under tariffs and so forth. But if you export people, drive up labor costs, add tariffs, you're going to have a wage price spiral, which is not popular ever.
1:12:48so i i don't think this is going to be a non-disruptive next 10 years in our economy and i hope that the people we have in leadership are technocratic enough and empathetic enough to be intelligent about change while also realizing that we're talking about humans inside of a system and not just robots inside of a system sticking with my abundance goal i want to see us have 500 million americans in the country in 10 years and 10 new cities that can house 15 million people each i'd like to see us grow the population dramatically and have 10 new cities maybe 20 with 5 to 15 million people in each in our lifetime like literally a manhattan project to build the number of americans and the number of cities here we i think we should be growing i think we should be growing massively and we should be ambitious about that so i could just could not agree more big america is is my thing because i am i remain wholeheartedly into the depths of my souls my feet an american believer so all right that's my politics there you have it folks uh this is uh captain nuance along with captain america here chopping it up the robots are coming and uh new weapons technology and hopefully uh yeah we make sense of it all and we'll be tracking it here three days a week on this week in startups bye bye and don't forget on tomorrow.
1:14:12We're live, not on Friday, on Thursday this week. All in tape, we move to Friday. Right. And tomorrow, just to give you a teaser, Y Combinator just dropped their new request for startup list. We have this. We are going to go through it and handicap our ideas, talk about some leading companies. It's going to be a blast. Jason, I'll see you tomorrow here on the show. All right. Peace out, everybody.
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Timestamps:
(0:00) Jason and Alex kick off the show
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(7:23) Product velocity, military drone usage, and vehicle speed and depth capabilities
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(21:04) Lemon.io - Get 15% off your first 4 weeks of developer time at https://Lemon.io/twist
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(35:00) LG's new stretchable screen technology and Deep Robotics' quadruped robot
(45:19) Robotics in warfare, cybersecurity, and civilian impact
(48:50) Autonomous surgical robots and science fiction predictions in AI
(54:14) Fintech market insights: Klarna's IPO and political climate effects on valuations
(1:00:18) Unicorn IPO challenges and influencing in the crypto market
(1:03:08) Comparison of the current market to previous manias and government efficiency
(1:08:42) Impact of AI on job market, economy, and autonomous trucking
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Mentioned on the show:
https://x.com/DeepRobotics_CN/status/1856601226357387396
https://hub.jhu.edu/2024/11/11/surgery-robots-trained-with-videos
https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/klarna-adds-savings-accounts-competing-banking-business/724369
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