Can the Trump plan bring peace to Gaza?

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:09Today, can Trump's 20-point peace plan end the war on Gaza?

0:19President Trump has declared that peace in the Middle East is beyond very close as he presented a new plan to end the war in Gaza in the present... Today marks two years since Hamas launched its shocking attack on Israel and ignited a brutal war. The suffering in Gaza has been overwhelming, and the hope of a ceasefire has been dangled again and again. I think this meeting in Cairo is different from what we've had before, because this isn't simply a swap of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages potentially leading to a ceasefire. This is a discussion about the future of Palestine as well. On Monday, negotiators assembled in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt to hammer out the 20-point peace plan announced by Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu stood at the president's side.

1:07Patrick Winter, The Guardian's diplomatic editor, has been keeping a close eye on proceedings. It tends to be these talks end up in some very glamorous hotel, but nobody sees very much food until right at the end of the whole process. But it's going to be very tense because I think the stakes are so, so high. They are under a lot of time pressure because the American president, he said he wants these talks completed within as little as 72 hours. This time, we're told, the effort really is serious. An end to the war hangs just within reach.

1:45An index of how important these discussions are regarded is that Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, will be there with Steve Witkoff, who's Donald Trump's special envoy for pursuing the Palestine agenda for a long time. I think Netanyahu is under no illusions that Donald Trump is watching him like a hawk and these negotiations have to be serious. There's a big prize there for Israel because they could get the release of all the remaining hostages. It's whether they're willing to pay the price that will be asked for that to happen. From The Guardian, I'm Noshin Iqbal. Today in Focus, the making of an urgent peace deal for Gaza.

2:28Patrick Winter, you're no stranger to Today in Focus. As our diplomatic editor, you will have analysed more than your fair share of peace plans in the last couple of years. it has been roughly a week since we first heard about this 20-point peace plan to end the war in Gaza. Could you walk us through what's being proposed? Sure. Well first the preliminary proposals and obviously in some ways the most difficult is the simple exchange of prisoners and hostages. There's thought to be about 20 Israeli hostages still alive. There are perhaps an equal number that are dead and their location is not necessarily known.

3:05In return, the Palestinians would be allowed to see the release of 250 what's called life prisoners, so there'd be very serious offences that have been committed. And then there's as many as 1 ,700 Palestinians who've been arrested over the last two years. What the Palestinians will be looking for is some kind of guarantee, which has been the flaw in the negotiations throughout, that once all the Israeli hostages are handed over, there will be a guarantee that the Israelis will not resume the conflict. So that's the first stage. The second stage is there's these issues around how Hamas will disarm, who to, how much will they disarm, will they have to just disarm their rockets and major weaponry, can they keep their personal firearms, will they be given an amnesty or will they be required to leave Palestine.

4:02Palestine. And then there are a range of issues around how the Israeli defense forces will withdraw on what timetable and whether they'll leave the whole of Gaza or whether they'll be allowed to stay on the borders with a buffer zone. And then that's part of the detail that's still very much quite fraught. That's right. I mean, when the 20-point plan was produced in Washington following talks in New York, there was a map that was produced that was extremely vague and just had three or four lines not very well delineated. And I think that Palestinians are really pushing for those maps to be made clearer.

4:40And they want the Israeli defence forces out of Gaza altogether. And that's going to be a very difficult issue. And then what's the second phase? What does the day after look like? Well, the day after, we'll see this formation of an interim technocratic body that will have a practical group of Palestinians, politicians on it, and above it, a board, a supervisory board called the Board of Peace or something ridiculous, and which Donald Trump allegedly would chair. So that would be the body that would be in charge of the reconstruction of Gaza. And it's unclear how long this body would exist, what its relationship would be with Palestinian political forces, and really how it would conduct itself.

5:25I think in practice, there have been a lot of day after plans written many of them in as long ago as last year and this is a conflation of those plans I think a lot of work that's been done by the Tony Blair Institute he is the most advanced thinker on this along with Jared Kushner who's the president's son-in-law Well we'll come back to that double act of Kushner and Blair but in the immediate aftermath of this deal what will the situation look like for Gazans and I'm talking specifically about aid knowing that there is famine in the region knowing you know those horrendous pictures that we've been seeing of starving children how quickly will this improve their situation?

6:08Well there is a promise that as many as 600 trucks of aid will be allowed into Gaza per day and under the agreement I think this is quite significant the UN once again gets a role in the distribution of this aid because they have been effectively excluded by the Israelis in favor of this rather shadowy and disastrous Gaza humanitarian organization, which has clearly not worked and has led to far more deaths than necessary. And I think even the Americans recognize that it was a deep mistake. We will see the professionals from the UN back in, and I think that might even see the UN UNRWA back in, which is this body that America and Israel insists is totally penetrated by Hamas fighters.

6:59And they effectively banned them, right? And they're the most effective aid organisation in the region. Yeah, I mean, I think you can't really expect to bring about big changes in Gaza without UNRWA being there because they are the institutional body that has been so important to the distribution of not just aid, but helping with hospitals, medical aid, and just the basics of local government like rubbish there may be big plans already written on drawing boards by architects as to how you're going to turn gaza into a new dubai but in the short term it's going to be about the fact that people will not have shelter and they will need food and that is going to be the first requirements it is striking i don't know how surprising it is to you as a professional watcher of these kind of things, but no Palestinians were involved in the making of this plan.

7:54The entire concept is being imposed on them. So what parts of it have Hamas and Israel agree to so far? What Hamas said effectively a few days ago, which has allowed these talks to go ahead, it was to say, yes, but, and there's a discussion going about right now about what the but meant, did it mean that Hamas was still insisting that they should have a role in the future governance of Gaza? And I think the understanding is that they won't, but they will be consulted or they'll be involved in some broad way, not necessarily as Hamas as an organization which will be effectively dismantled, but they will be consulted and the way that happens is going to be very important.

8:42And the other bit of the equation which is often forgotten is that the main political representative body will be the Palestinian Authority, which is based in Ramallah in the West Bank, and effectively got ejected from Gaza by Hamas in 2006. They're widely seen to be corrupt and deeply unpopular in the West Bank. But they are the body that formally will be consulted about what should happen. Israel has its own version about what it's agreed to in the peace proposals. It obviously is in favour of the release of all the hostages, both dead and alive, and it's agreed to the large-scale release of Palestinian political prisoners.

9:24But it hasn't agreed to the full withdrawal of Israeli defence forces from Gaza, and it's certainly not set out any kind of view about how the Palestinian Authority should be able to govern Palestine in the future. It's opposed to that completely. So there's a lot still to be worked through. And Patrick, how is all of this viewed by Israel's neighbours? I mean, Qatar, Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Saudis. I mean, have they had any influence or involvement in Trump's plan for peace? Yes, they have. I think it would be wrong to think they haven't. There's often in the past been a lot of divisions within the Gulf states, but they've come together in a new way.

10:04And they now see Israel almost as much as a security threat to them as Iran. And that is an extraordinary turnaround. One of the reasons why Israel's been in a bit of a corner recently is that there was a very foolish decision to bomb the Hamas negotiators in Doha. An extraordinary further escalation in the Middle East war with Israel bombing Hamas leaders in their faraway Qatar homes, an act Qatar has described as cowardly and a clear breach of international law, but which Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says was a targeted strike against Hamas's terrorist chieftains. And that was done 10 hours after the Israelis had been talking to Steve Witkoff.

10:47So he feels personally betrayed. The Qataris obviously feel furious that their sovereignty was undermined. And I think Trump was also furious. So that has kind of changed the dynamic about who does Trump regard as his closest allies in the Middle East. And it's not quite so much Israel. He will always defend the security and independence of Israel, but he is aware that they have been a destabilizing force.

11:21One of the most audacious twists in all of this is Tony Blair's involvement. Patrick, could you tell me about the role of our former Prime Minister and how he has embedded himself in this process? Well, he's always been very close to Jara Kushner. He's always felt he had unfinished business in the Middle East, not just the disaster that emerged to be the Iraq War, but also he then went on to become a Middle East envoy for what was called the Quartet. And that was a formal position. And he did it for quite a long time. He had purely a sort of economic role in trying to revive Gaza and the West Bank.

12:05Tony, it's a pleasure to meet you once again in Jerusalem. Our government's policy towards Gaza is clear. Israel seeks to keep out of Gaza weapons and material that Hamas uses to prepare and carry out terror and rocket attacks against Israel and its civilians. But anyway, he has felt very committed to the region. How does the region feel about him? I mean, was he seen as a success? The elite in the Gulf are very happy with him and work with him and know him very well. I think on the street as they call it there's a different view of him and the memory of him is of the Iraq war which was clearly a mistake my personal criticism of him is that he's always too optimistic he always believes everyone is going to behave in a slightly more rational way than they will I think we're all here for the energy and I guess optimism that Tiny Bear would represent in the region but in terms of what he would actually do in this board of peace in what feels like almost the emperor of Gaza.

13:07What would that look like and how does that feel? It has quite colonial echoes. It has completely colonial echoes, particularly with the British-Palestinian mandate in the past. So in some ways it would be quite good if it wasn't a British person, given the history. But the counter-argument is this is a man who does understand the region now and he does understand the sensitivities of all the Gulf states. I mean, whether this then just turns into a massive construction project, we will see. But I think he's also been important in persuading Trump that the idea of a mass expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza wasn't going to work, that Egypt and Jordan, for them, it would be a red line.

13:51They couldn't countenance having that number of refugees pouring over their borders. And so he has played one role already with him and Kushner, persuading Trump, who was dallying with this idea of mass expulsions. And that's now off the agenda. But there's an awful lot more work to be done. And how Palestinians are genuinely consulted about what happens to what is a wasteland, how that wasteland is turned into something different is very, very difficult. Well, let's look at that. Gaza has been reduced to mountains of rubble. And we've all heard about Trump's ideas of turning into modern miracle cities of the Middle East, his dream of turning into a Riviera, grotesquely treating the Strip as a massive investment opportunity with all the glossy brochures having been drawn up on what a future Gaza will look like.

14:43Is this peace plan and the installation of Blair and Kushner a path to realising that vision? I think there's no doubt that they will have a vision which is very similar to turning it into something like Dubai. But I don't think that understands the nature of Palestinian politics. Or Palestinians. Or Palestinians, indeed. And I don't think it understands the history and complexity of what they're going to face. I mean, Doha, Dubai were all built in very, very different circumstances and very different times. So this is going to be much, much more complex. And I think any of us know what the psychological traumatic state of Palestinians are going to be when this comes to an end.

15:27I mean, whether they'll want to turn on Hamas, whether they'll want to turn on Tony Blair, whether they'll want to turn on Israel, whether they'll all just feel exhausted and just the only thing they'll care about is that they can live from day to day. Who knows what the true state of Palestinians are going to be? The surveys are done ridiculously inside Gaza and to some extent in the West Bank. But I just find it very hard to believe that these are real surveys about what people truly feel. And I don't think we can know. I think it's just, I think that moment when all the Palestinian journalists have been absolutely brilliant inside Gaza.

16:08But the fact is there will be a moment when the big American anchormen and women go into Gaza and when they reveal to American audiences and potentially to Israeli audiences who've turned a blind eye to this, what has happened. I just think it's going to be an extremely politically febrile and dangerous moment. No one knows how people will react. And what they'll be saying. And in terms of the plan, does it acknowledge any of that pain and actually what Garzans will need in the immediate aftermath? You know, they want food, schools, they want university, they want any kind of resemblance of life.

16:44You know, the entire infrastructure of the place has been destroyed. Is there any acknowledgement of that in the plan and how that will be developed? No one will be unaware of what they're going to be facing. In the very short term it will be probably just trying to get better tents and better warmth and better food to people. I mean they've been moved some of these, some Palestinians five, six times in the last two years. It's been so brutal and they've lived under a state of fear.

17:17Patrick we have been close to a ceasefire before but this one does feel suddenly urgent and you know on Sunday Trump posted I am asking everyone to move fast why is everything accelerating so rapidly? Well I think experience shows in peace negotiations it's a bit like riding a bicycle you have to keep moving or else you'll fall off Jonathan Powell who is the who's currently the the National Security Advisor for the UK, but was Chief of Staff to Tony Bair and was very much involved in the Northern Ireland peace negotiations, always said that momentum was absolutely critical. If you let some kind of status quo or stasis to grow and the Moss to grow on negotiations, they will falter and that bike will come to the ground.

18:04So that's why they want to seize the moment. Certainly that's also what the Gulf states are trying to tell to Hamas as well. Obviously, there are important issues to iron out and there's a huge number of gaps and uncertainties in this 20-point plan, but this cannot be a months-long negotiation. Coming up, could this plan win Trump a Nobel Peace Prize?

18:38Patrick, Tuesday marks two years since October the 7th. And I wonder if that anniversary plays any impact into these negotiations, into Trump wanting this halas finish and stopped, and whether even this other swirling notion of his potential for a Nobel Peace Prize, which will also be announced this week, whether that has any calculation or bearing in any of this? Well, I think obviously October the 7th has, you know, huge resonance. But to be honest, I think the way in which the timing has worked out is serendipitous, coincidental, rather than it being something anyone was working towards. I think the point at which all this was born was more in the late spring, early summer when the negotiations started between France and Saudi Arabia about a two-state solution and then blending that in with some of the Trump proposals.

19:38So I think this has been in gestation for a long time. And the fact that October the 7th has arrived, as it has, is potent, but I don't think it's part of anyone's equation. And equally, the Nobel Peace Prize, well, Donald Trump's already solved seven wars. According to him. According to him. So I don't know whether he needs an eighth to win the Nobel Peace Prize. I would be very surprised if the committee decided to give it to him on this basis. I think we all would. I think they'll be waiting to see how this works out. But if it does work out and does succeed, there will be some credit going his way because he's pushed things very hard in the last few weeks.

20:22So, Patrick, from everything you've said, it seems the pressure to agree this deal doesn't come from Israel, it doesn't come from Palestine or Hamas, it comes from Trump. But what is to stop either side from agreeing and then retracting on that? Well, the guarantees are not legal guarantees. And it's true that there were previous peace agreements that Israel give reasons why they did so. But they did start bombing in full force Gaza in March this year before the agreement had come to an end. So there is no final guarantee. And that's happening now as well. There is a bombardment of Gaza right now.

20:59Yes, I mean, as we speak, allegedly Israel is only bombing Gaza defensively. But since Friday, when Hamas partially accepted this deal, there have been 70 further fatalities, killings inside Gaza by Israeli forces, despite the request and commitment to a ceasefire. Netanyahu's track record of trustworthiness isn't great. And Hamas's survival is also at stake here. And there's always these divisions between the political wing of Hamas, which is outside Gaza, and then the fighters who are inside Gaza. And you never quite know who you're talking to and whether they're speaking with authority. So it's incredibly fragile, this situation.

21:44And there's so much that could go wrong. You can get swept up in the optimism. And when you have to look at the objective facts and the difficulties and distrust and hatreds, and you have to realise this could go terribly wrong. And then I think the outcome of that will be nothing more than further military assault by Israel, probably endorsed by Donald Trump. Are you aware of conversations being had that are not being made public that might be informing negotiations? I think in situations like this, there are constant extra talks going on. And it's not all what Donald Trump's saying on Truth Social.

22:24I think the people that I know are still very, very sort of active and will be trying to inform the room in Egypt will be, Tony Blair will be one. And I think most of the Gulf state leaders are also still putting in a lot of calls. calls. There isn't one single negotiation going on and there's a huge chorus of people outside trying to influence the room as well.

22:55If phase one of this deal does go ahead, what does it mean for Palestinian independence and survival? I'm not sure it means a lot for Palestinian independence. There's a lot that's still unclear about whether Israel leaves Gaza. There's a lot unclear about the relationship between Gaza and the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which is what would be the kernel of a Palestinian state. And we don't know, ultimately, what kind of elections will be allowed to happen, either in Gaza and the West Bank. And we don't know, truly, whether Israel would accept that it has to bring an end to this settlement program inside the West Bank.

23:36So the Palestinian state, I think, is on sort of life support. And that's in a way why so many countries recognize Palestine at this recent conference, because they knew how fragile the future of Palestine is. So people can recognize Palestine as a country, but whether it's an actual vibrant, existing, sovereign country is another issue. And what about Israeli accountability after this war has ended for now? I mean, last week, you seem to be the only person talking about the impact that it will have on cases filed against Israel at the ICC and the ICJ. Can you explain to me what happens to those cases if this deal is accepted?

24:16Well, Israel is insisting as part of the peace process that Palestinian Authority itself should withdraw the genocide accusations that are being made at the International Court of Justice and that also the specific arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and other members of the Israeli cabinet should also be withdrawn. So erase war crimes and genocide from your objectives is what they're saying to the Palestinians. Yes, if you want to have reconciliation, trying to put Benjamin Nehihahu behind bars in The Hague is just not going to be practical. Whether one sees a kind of mood of retribution or reconciliation once this war is over is unclear.

25:07And it will be much to do with the elections that happen in Israel. It would be unrealistic to expect there to be a government elected as well disposed towards Palestine as a state. But it's possible that Netanyahu would be thrown out of office. And then I think you could start to see him facing the more internal difficulties that he's been trying to avoid in terms of these charges that are against him. both corruption and also, I'm sure, a large amount of kind of demands for an inquiry into what happened on October the 7th and how it was allowed to happen. And he's been trying to avoid that. So I think he will face a lot of domestic difficulties, let alone the international difficulties.

25:54And some people say one reason that the Israeli Prime Minister has been so keen for this war to continue is not that he's absolutely determined to destroy Hamas down to the last soldier. It's also that he just cannot face this war being to an end because that will then bring his own future to the forefront. Well, of course, Patrick, everyone does want this war to end. The loss of life and devastation is unbearable. The ripple effects that this conflict is having reach further than Israel and Gaza. They go beyond into the US, UK. as the diplomatic editor how optimistic are you that this peace plan will offer a longer reprieve for the palestinians than the one before i am more optimistic uh i think because the the horror of what has happened over the last two years is such that the you know the phrase never again must be on everyone's lips.

26:49So I am hopeful. There was an American who helped in the Northern Ireland process called George Mitchell, and his famous phrase was, diplomacy is 300 days of failure and one of success. And it only takes one of success. And maybe we're at that point. I just think enough stars are aligning that I think we're going to certainly get into a different phase, whether it's going to lead to a Palestinian state, but I think we're going to get into a phase where the guns will fall silent for longer than they have for a long time. Let's all hope and see. Patrick, thank you so much for your time. Thank you.

27:35That was The Guardian's diplomatic editor, Patrick Winter. My thanks to him. You can follow The Guardian's live blog on the Middle East and do keep an eye out for Patrick's analysis all of which can be found at theguardian.com I'd also recommend reading a piece by our chief Middle East correspondent Emma Graham Harrison on Israel and Gaza two years on and that's it for today this episode was presented by me Narsheen Iqbal it was produced by Ruth Abrahams Eleanor Biggs and Sinead Campbell sound design is by Rudy Zagadlow the executive producer was Humer Khalili and we'll be back again tomorrow