Can Trump’s peace plan for Gaza be saved? – The Latest

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0:46I think it is very much the case that the Americans are the ones who ultimately hold the cards in these talks. With his typical kind of bombast, Trump announced this new peace plan. It kind of highlights a sort of chicken and egg situation here. Who will go first? I think it's really, really far from certain that people of Gaza will be able to return home.

1:03Nosheen Iqbal:From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Nashi Niqbal. Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is on a mission to make peace in the Middle East. Devika Bhatt, you're one of The Guardian's global editors. Can you tell me, first of all, about this meeting he had with Hamas yesterday, which, worth pointing out, it's a very rare event. But do we know anything about what was discussed and what happened? So we know that this is the first of two meetings, one that took place yesterday with Hamas, as you say, and we think the other one's taking place today with Netanyahu in Jerusalem.

1:37The one that took place yesterday was in Egypt and it saw Kushner meeting with the Hamas political leader, Khalil al-Hayr, as well as officials from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, the mediating countries, traditional mediating countries were also there. and as you say it's quite rare because the US and Hamas don't traditionally meet directly the US has in the past always described Hamas as a terrorist organization doesn't negotiate with terrorists however it has met with Hamas directly in recent years for the first time last year to negotiate the release of hostages.

2:14Nosheen Iqbal:And Devika what do we know about who the main players in these talks are because I can't be the only one who's slightly agog at this point how normalized it's become for Jared Kushner, who's essentially a real estate guy, to be central to the Middle East peace process. But who else is there that's bringing expertise and depth to these talks? Yeah, so as you say, Kushner was there, but also Tony Blair was there. And the sort of director of the Board of Peace, who is, you know, a kind of veteran UN diplomat, Nikolai Mladilov. And, you You know, so there is a level of expertise there beyond Kushner.

2:50But I think it is very much the case that the Americans are the ones who ultimately hold the cards in these talks. It's always been said, and it sort of remains true, that it's only really the Americans that can put any sway, really, on Israel and on Netanyahu. And so is there anything useful then from those talks to be taken by Kushner to the meeting today with Netanyahu, given the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu very clearly in a break from the US seemed to have rejected the peace board and what I should say

3:18Nosheen Iqbal:the 15 point peace plan early this month when he said, well, in short terms, absolutely no, unless there's total and immediate disarmament from Hamas. Yeah, I think, I mean, the critical thing is Israel's compliance in this. So as you say, this 15 point peace plan was a kind of renewed bid by the US to try to kickstart negotiations after the ceasefire. You know, negotiations over Gaza have stalled for months now. And we saw last month, to much fanfare with his typical kind of bombast, Trump announced this new peace plan and said that he had managed to secure Hamas's agreement to disarm in a sort of phased disarmament plan that would see Hamas disarm in parallel to Israel withdrawing gradually from Gaza.

4:03However, even as he announced it with all this bombast, and to be fair to him, securing Hamas's agreement on disarmament is a big deal. But Hamas said from the outset, it was always contingent on Israel, withdrawing and Israeli compliance.

4:19Nosheen Iqbal:It was also going to be gradual, right? That was also part of their negotiation. It wasn't necessarily going to be immediate. Absolutely, yeah. And, you know, it's a sort of, it kind of highlights a sort of chicken and egg situation here. who will go first. Each side wants the other to go first because neither side trusts each other. And what we saw last week was Netanyahu say very clearly he was rejecting this plan and that Israel would not withdraw until there had been the complete disarmament of Hamas. So once again, we were back to this kind of starting point and the deal felt at that point a bit like a non-starter.

4:52And what we're seeing today and yesterday is a bid to kind of revive that and try to get things going again. Whether there will be any success on that remains to be seen.

5:01Nosheen Iqbal:Well, it's worth saying that at the point of recording, that meeting with Netanyahu is still ongoing. But given everything we know, and the way that he has been posturing on a global stage, do you think there's any chance that Jared Kushner has of saving this deal? Well, I think one card that the Americans will be trying to dangle over Netanyahu will be the issue of endorsement. So Netanyahu is facing a critical election in October. He's not doing as well in the polls as he might hope. He's facing increasingly quite strong opposition. And this plays into how he is having to sort of negotiate things with the sort of domestic pressure he faces at home.

5:41He's propped up by an incredibly hard right, far right coalition. And so that is playing into how he responds to this deal. But what he really does want is an endorsement from Trump, who remains quite popular in Israel. Although, you know, that popularity has seeded a little bit after Trump sort of is pursuing talks with Iran. But, you know, he's still very, very popular there. And that endorsement, I think Netanyahu would feel would sort of boost him.

6:11Nosheen Iqbal:Surprised that it's not actually a given for Netanyahu at this point to expect that Trump would give him the two thumbs up. That he would endorse him. Yeah, that he would endorse him. Yeah, I mean, Trump has sort of hinted, ultimately, he probably will, but he's keeping that card to play still. And it's something that could come up in the talks today, possibly, we don't know for certain, but it's definitely something that Netanyahu has been holding out for. And, you know, the US will be very aware that going into this, the primary concern for Netanyahu is the election that he's facing. And yet in the meantime, Israeli strikes are continuing in Gaza.

6:46Nosheen Iqbal:Devika, what is the situation on the ground there like right now? Yeah, so you're absolutely right. So airstrikes have continued there. Just on Sunday, there were at least two different airstrikes in Gaza. It has to be said, we think this follows a period where actually things quieten down a little bit. But, you know, it's all relative. I mean, there was this ceasefire announced in October. So in light of that, the fact that there are still strikes going is something in itself, right? Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, the strikes continued long after the ceasefire stopped. And there was this sort of hiatus for a bit, possibly under duress and pressure from the Americans who really do not want to have to deal with Gaza as an issue.

7:25You know, they want the focus to be on Iran, try to get an Iran deal done. And it feels, you know, from an American foreign policy point of view, they just want this to be off the table. But yeah, in terms of the situation in Gaza, so strikes have been continuing and reconstruction remains such a critical issue. So reconstruction has kind of stalled. We've done some very good reporting on this from both Washington and in Jerusalem on how reconstruction has stalled, how the Board of Peace, which already announced these very grand plans for a whole scale reconstruction of Gaza. Those have been quietly scaled back, we believe.

8:05In fact, we think the only...

8:07Nosheen Iqbal:Is that the Middle East Riviera that we'd heard a lot about? Was that also kiboshed in light of something else? Yeah, so the Board of Peace announced a kind of a sort of quite comprehensive plan for the reconstruction of Gaza. But we think, you know, one of our correspondents there reported on this quite extensively about how those plans had been massively scaled back into something much more modest. But even that's not happened yet. Because as the Israeli strikes have continued, as Israel has sort of taken over more and more territory in Gaza, it has blocked reconstruction efforts going in. And so nothing has happened.

8:41And that remains something. You know, we've got a completely devastated territory which needs rebuilding, but that hasn't happened yet.

8:47Nosheen Iqbal:Were this peace plan to pass, what would the future look like for Gazans and where they live? I mean, I think there's so many questions there that even if by some miracle an agreement was struck today, Netanyahu agreed to some form of this 15 point peace plan because it's a phased plan on both parts, on both the withdrawal side of things as well as the disarmament of Hamas, there's plenty of room for the unexpected to happen, for things to go wrong with it. I think it's really, really far from certain that we'll be in a position anytime soon for people of Gaza to be able to return home and for reconstruction to begin there.

9:28It's really, really unclear and it's really hard to see how that could happen, certainly in advance of the election where Netanyahu is facing these huge pressures from the hard right at home in Israel.

9:40Nosheen Iqbal:So it seems from everything you're saying, things might be stalled until October, until the autumn when these elections actually happen. That may well be the case. Devika, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for having me on. That's it for today. My huge thanks to Devika Bapp, one of our global editors here at The Guardian. You can follow our coverage of the story and more at theguardian.com. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning, and The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Bryony Moore and Annie Levespa.

10:10Nosheen Iqbal:The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin, and it was presented by me, Nashi Nqbal.

10:19This is The Guardian.

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