Is Europe ready for a future without the US?

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:09Today, as Trump withdraws troops from Germany, is Europe ready for a future without America?

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1:10Lachau is a very unique place. I mean, it's just a small town in Germany. At first glance, you've got the sort of Rhineland architecture and the sloping red roofs and these sort of 19th century buildings around. Deborah Cole covers Germany for The Guardian, and she recently visited Landshul in the southwest of the country, which, while very German, is also very American. You have the American fast food joints and you've got a nail salon with an American flag in front of it. They had a fun fair going when we were there, decorated with Uncle Sam. It's essentially just, you know, kind of one big welcome mat for Americans to feel part of this community.

1:51And they have been for, you know, now 81 years. Ever since the U.S. Army marched into the nearby city of Kaiserslautern in the spring of 1945, Americans have been woven into the fabric of life here. Of the 68 ,000 US military personnel stationed in Europe around 9 ,000 live in Landstuhl along with their families. So when Donald Trump announced he would be withdrawing American troops from Germany apparently to punish the German Chancellor for suggesting his war in Iran was a mistake dismay spread across Landstuhl.

2:32I spoke to a high school teacher in town who compared it to like a bombshell. Shockiert, muss ich ganz ehrlich sagen. Also ich bin jetzt schon ganz lang hier in der Gegend und wir lieben unsere Amerikaner. I'll translate that for you. Around here we love our Americans, she says.

2:51Across Europe, leaders are starting to wonder, what will happen if this is just the start of the American withdrawal from the continent, potentially from NATO too. They're increasing defence spending, reintroducing conscription, they're stockpiling weapons. But is it enough? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus, can Europe defend itself alone?

3:19Deborah Cole, welcome to the show. Thank you for having me. It's lovely to see you. So you're not just our Germany correspondent, but you're also an American, aren't you? So you're very perfectly placed for this episode. So thanks for being here. My pleasure. So you had a very interesting day in this town of Landstuhl last week after Trump threatened to withdraw 5 ,000 troops from Germany. Can we just start with the basics? Why are there still any American soldiers stationed in Germany? Well, you have to kind of scroll back 81 years, you know, to the end of the Second World War. So at that time, you know, Germany was completely physically and morally destroyed.

3:58And the American troops led by General Patton marched into this region in March 1945, and have never left. And it's been a place to project US power throughout a very broad region, as well as protecting European allies who are part of NATO. And then, so over the last 81 years, when was the sort of peak for the number of troops that were stationed in Germany? So the peak was during the Cold War. At the end of World War II, there were 1.6 million U.S. troops, but that was a short-lived experience. And then after that, they drew down into the hundreds of thousands in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, up and through the 80s.

4:46you still had more than 250 ,000 US troops in Germany. What is actually in Landstuhl when it comes to US military facilities? Well, Landstuhl is known mainly for the medical center there, and that is the biggest US hospital outside the United States. But it is part of a whole community that is part of the Kaiserslautern military community. And that includes the Rammstein Air Base, which is also enormously important for U.S. military operations in Europe and military action in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and in Africa. So the whole community taken together has about 50 ,000 U.S. troops, support staff and then families who are based there.

5:34So these are people who are not just, you know, kind of passing through. They come and they stay for a few years with their families. And isn't Rammstein also important for NATO? I read that it was the sort of it acted as the command center for military airspace surveillance for all European partners. That's right. And it's also been in use as part of the US-Israeli-led war in Iran. And whereas some European partners have refused to allow the US to use their airspace as part of that campaign, German airspace and Rammstein have been very important as part of this latest war as well. Isn't that interesting, considering the dive that the US-German relations have taken in the past week, as we will get on to.

6:22And so you went to Landstuhl just last week, and I know that you spoke to quite a few residents and troops who are in the town, and they seem quite sad at the prospect of the troops being sent back home. Why do American GIs, if you want to call them that, have such a special place in so many Germans' hearts? Well, I mean, you know, from the US perspective, there is a lot of history there, but also the Germans, you know, some of the people I talked to talked about sort of our Americans. And almost everyone I spoke to among the Germans had either worked for the Americans or been married to an American or had children.

7:00I mean, their business ties that go back decades. I mean, these are communities that are completely interwoven. It is a community that is very much German American. And so for me as an American going to visit, it's sort of like this, It's like a kind of Truman show. It's a world within a world where I feel like for half a second, if I kind of squint, that I'm somewhere in a Midwestern town. And in terms of what you can actually see as the American influence, what is there in Lundstool that would give you a hint if you didn't know that there was this enormous American airbase so nearby? So when we were there last Thursday, we got lucky that the carnival, the spring carnival was happening.

7:43And, you know, just as we pulled into town, we saw these rides for kids with Uncle Sam. You see the stars and stripes everywhere. Every shop sort of, you know, everything's advertised in English and in German. For those of you who remember Wayne's World, we went to Schillwings Chicken. Party time, excellent. Yeah. Yeah. I knew I had found the right place to find Americans and Germans. And so, you know, it's a community that has very much opened its arms to its Americans and tried to make them feel as home as possible. And I guess there's a lot of livelihoods in the area that are dependent on the Americans' presence.

8:27Did you meet anybody whose businesses would be in dire straits if they were to be sent back home? So one of the people I spoke to who is particularly interesting, his name is Karl, and he was born in Poland, but he's lived in Germany since he was 12. And so he, as the manager of this Schwing's location I visited, said that it would be absolutely devastating.

8:59And he described it. He said that a lot of people are drawn to this, you know, fairly small town, Landstuhl, because they want the American feeling. And there are and have been a lot of business opportunities, a lot of jobs that are stabilized, that are supported by the American military presence. In fact, they are completely dependent on it. And beyond financial dependence on the Americans and this desire to have an American feeling, do the Germans that you met in Landstuhl feel kind of emotionally, sentimentally attached to the American presence? Because the Americans had such a big influence on post-war Germany, didn't they?

9:40From the air bridge, which people might remember from 1948 in Berlin, when the Soviets had essentially cut off West Berlin from the rest of the country and the Americans every day, didn't they? Day and night flew in food and coal, everything that the West Berlin has needed. Moving forward from the difficult flying conditions of winter to the sunny skies of summer, the Berlin airlift underlines its resounding success with an amazing feat.

10:07Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, the Americans kept the Germans from being starved into submission, by the Soviet Union. And so there's an enormous amount of gratitude linked to that. Then, of course, the Marshall Plan, which pumped billions over the years into rebuilding Germany, not only economically, but also welcoming it back into the community of nations, West Germany, after the Nazi period that was anything but a given. But I think then we get to the heart of the issue here, that the Germans saw it as the right thing to do, not only in terms of rebuilding Europe, but also in their own interest in the context of the Cold War.

10:49And that interest that the United States has by having this military presence here is still very much the case. That hasn't changed. Yeah. And beyond Landstuhl and Rammstein, how big is the US military presence in Germany? So there are about 36 ,000 soldiers here, and that is a little bit more than half of the US troops in all of Europe. But then along with that, you have civilian support staff, and as I mentioned, the families. So the actual American presence is through that exponentially bigger. And from a defence or military point of view, how important are these bases for the Americans and for the Germans and the Europeans?

11:32The Americans just in Germany alone have 20 to 40 bases, depending on sort of how you define a military base. But it is a very large presence. We talked earlier about Rammstein and the essential importance that that has as part of NATO, as you were saying earlier, Helen, that it's not only the Americans who use Rammstein, but many, many NATO members. And it is not only, I think Trump, often in the way he speaks about it, puts it in terms that the American military presence in Germany is only to defend Germans and Europeans. And that is far from the case. I mean, as we're seeing right now in the Iran war, Rammstein and the other bases are extremely important as part of this military operation.

12:20And just in general, it is, you know, sort of a forward launching pad, essentially, for military operations in Africa, you know, in the Middle East, we mentioned Afghanistan. I mean, I've been based in Germany for a long time. And, you know, it used to be down in Stuttgart, which is where the European command is based. It's also where the US Africa command is based and go to briefings with the Supreme Allied Commander there, you know, constantly because everything was being planned. for example, after 9-11 in Afghanistan and then later in Iraq, you know, from patch barracks in Shugat, Germany.

12:59So there's a whole sort of infrastructure that has been built up over decades. And so the idea that you could sort of just toss this out the window and still have the same projection of American power throughout this enormous region is completely illusory. And in terms of the Germans, is there any truth in it when Trump says that the Germans have kind of outsourced their own security to the Americans? Because for a long time, the German army, the Bundeswehr, has been mocked by many other armies. I remember hearing a colonel from the British army dismiss it as an aggressive camping organisation, this idea that they couldn't really, you know, if somebody did attack Germany, that they would be pretty helpless?

13:46Well, again, we have to take historical perspective on all of this. I mean, the horror unleashed by Nazi Germany and its military is a memory that is very much still alive in Europe. And so the whole idea was to allow Germany to return to a certain economic strength, but also at the same time, restrain any sort of military ambitions it could ever have again. And it also Also bred a pacifist streak in the population, you know, sort of never again among Germans was taken very seriously for a long time. And they saw it as part of their identity, this absolute rejection of the Nazi past. So then as time went on, more and more American presidents, however, started seeing all of this German economic strength that wasn't being backed up with investment in its own military.

14:39Guten Tag. It is wonderful to see all of you. And I want to begin by thanking Chancellor Merkel for being here. And even Barack Obama would tell under the Merkel, look, you know, and they had a very good relationship, you know, would say, look, he didn't sort of use the word, you know, freeloading and things Trump has reached for. But he did. Obama tried to impress on the Europeans, particularly the Germans, that they needed to step up. And that's why every NATO member should be contributing its full share, 2 % of GDP, towards our common security. Something that doesn't always happen. And I'll be honest, sometimes Europe has been complacent about its own defense.

15:26And that message was quietly ignored for a very long time. Very historic milestone this week. The NATO allies committed to dramatically increase their defense spending to that 5 percent of GDP, something that no one really thought possible. And they said, you did it, sir. You did it. Well, I don't know if I did it, but I think I did. This will be known as the hate. And then Trump became a kind of a wake up call for the Europeans. But it's a monumental win for the United States because we were carrying much more than our fair share. It was quite unfair, actually.

16:07And when German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was elected on election night, in his first speech, after it became clear that he was going to be the next leader of Germany, he used the word independence from the United States, which was really shocking for a lot of people to hear. That was sort of the headline, that this was a recognition that this historic relationship that was built on trust and a sense of German reliance on the Americans, but also an understanding that, you know, the Americans saw their future also as rooted in the stability and success of Europe, that that was breaking apart more quickly than anyone could imagine, and that the Germans were going to have to react to this new reality.

17:08Yeah, and that brings us nicely to the latest spats and potentially the most serious one. And it all began last week, didn't it? When Friedrich Merz was talking to some schoolchildren in Marsburg. I'm not sure where Marsburg is. What happened? So Marsburg is in Friedrich Merz's constituency. And Friedrich Merz, he has a way sometimes of forgetting that he's the German Chancellor and that if he is speaking to a classroom full of pupils in his, you know, backyard, that that is going to reach the entire world instantly, including the Oval Office. Und das Problem bei solchen Konflikten ist immer, die Amerikaner haben offensichtlich keine Strategie.

17:54So he chose this moment to announce at least a strong shift in tone in terms of his approach to Donald Trump and to this US -Israeli military action in Iran. And his choice of words, he chose some provocative words.

18:25That the Americans were being outmaneuvered and that they were being humiliated by Iran. And Donald Trump likes to be flattered and he certainly doesn't like to be told that he's being humiliated. Yeah, as you said, it seemed to be a bit of an about turn for Friedrich Merz because when he made his first visit to the White House, didn't he give Trump this like gold framed birth certificate of Trump's grandfather, Friedrich Trump, who emigrated from the Germany in 1885? First of all, I want to thank you for that. That's my pleasure. Thank you very much. Thank you again. Fantastic. We are having so much in common, our history.

19:05We owe the Americans a lot. We will never forget about that. And so with your German provenance, I think this is a very good basis for close cooperation between America and Germany. Naturally, what Mertz said in front of those schoolchildren reached Trump's ear, and he was not happy about it, was he? How did he respond? So Trump was very quick to respond to these comments. And Germany, I mean, he's doing a terrible job. He's got immigration problems. He's got energy problems. And he criticized me for doing the whole thing with Iran. But I said, would you like to have a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran?

19:49He said, no, I don't. I said, well, then I guess I'm right. He didn't have any answer to that. So Trump is cross and then very quickly he acts, doesn't he? The United States says it will withdraw 5 ,000 of its troops from Germany as a rift widens between the two countries. Why is the US removing troops from Germany? We're going to cut way down and we're cutting a lot further than 5 ,000. Thank you very much. And not only is Trump withdrawing 5 ,000 troops from Germany and potentially more in future, it looks very much like the US is also not going to be stationing some really crucial long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles there either.

20:27And these are missiles that the Europeans were counting on, really, to deter Russia. The Europeans are already building their own, but they are some way off being finished. So that's going to leave them pretty exposed. But when it comes to the troop withdrawal, do you think that it was purely to spite Friedrich Merz? Or does it fit, do you think, a pattern of Trump wanting to reduce troop numbers in Europe to reduce the European reliance on America? Well, it fits not only a broader pattern of Trump threatening to reduce the US true presence in Europe. I think in general, it reflects an attitude towards Europe that this alliance that has existed since the Second World War is no longer in US interest, according to him.

21:10And he has very much painted the defence of Ukraine as being a European problem. That was another thing he said when he lashed out. Under Joe Biden, it was seen that defense of Ukraine was absolutely in American interest and that Russia was the adversary. And Trump has obviously taken a very different approach when it comes to Russia as well. And there's an irony there, isn't there? Trump telling the Europeans when it comes to Ukraine, you're on your own, because he's the guy that returns to the White House for the second time and then invites Putin to Alaska for talks, completely cuts out the Europeans, not to the Europeans, but Ukrainians themselves.

21:54Yeah. Yeah. And that followed the dressing down he gave Zelensky in office, which, you know, you talk to German officials and the horror they experienced watching that. And I think it was also because it drove home the sense that the Europeans really are on their own. I mean, NATO alliance still exists, although Donald Trump said at the beginning of April that he could very much, you know, imagine the United States leaving NATO. And the consequences of that obviously would be catastrophic for the Europeans. But this idea, the whole sort of framing that the US military presence in Europe is really only a favor to the Europeans is one that really doesn't, you know, bear out in reality when you see how important, these bases are for the projection of American military power in several regions around the world.

22:50Coming up, how ready is Europe for an American-less future?

23:17If you've used Babbel, you would. Babbel's conversation-based technique teaches you useful words and phrases to get you speaking quickly about the things you actually talk about in the real world. With lessons handcrafted by over 200 language experts and voiced by real native speakers, Babbel is like having a private tutor in your pocket. Start speaking with Babbel today. Get up to 55 % off your Babbel subscription right now at babbel.com slash ACAST. Spelled B-A-B-B-E-L dot com slash ACAST. Rules and restrictions may apply.

23:58I'm Kai Wright. I'm Kai Sherman. And we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have, where, you know, it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning and you pick up your phone and you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? There's war, there's authoritarianism, our planet is burning. I could go on and on and on. And on and on and on. But, like, we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like, how do you manage it? I manage it by leaning in and trying to learn more and trying to figure out, okay, how can I be smarter about this particular topic?

24:35And who can I talk to that's going to make me feel better about it? And who can tell me who's responsible for the mess that I'm reading about? So that's our mission. That's the show. Welcome to Stateside with Kai and Carter. We're a new show from The Guardian. We're talking to big thinkers and the best journalists, just trying to understand the world through smart conversation and honest reporting. We don't have billionaires telling us what to say. Stateside with Kai and Carter will come out three times a week, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, starting May 13th. Follow on Apple Podcasts or catch us wherever you watch or listen.

25:08So Deborah, as you say, Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO altogether. He's also suggested that he's going to try and get Spain kicked out of NATO. He's got a particular beef with Pedro Sanchez, the Socialist Prime Minister of Spain. He's threatened to withdraw troops from Italy and Spain. And beyond just the question of troop withdrawal from Germany and beyond, because there are also troops in Italy, Spain, the UK, Belgium and other countries, What is Europe worrying about so much? What has Trump said and done that is causing such consternation at this point? Well, you don't even have to just listen to the Europeans.

25:46I mean, you know, there were Republicans after Trump made his comments at the end of last week saying, surely this is going to embolden the Russians. I mean, if you're Vladimir Putin and see that the Americans are going wobbly in terms of, you know, their military presence in Europe, then it's, you know, it's an embossed invitation to at least pursue more provocations when we've seen these hybrid attacks, you know, for the last several years. And, you know, one of the biggest fears is that, you know, the Russians could go beyond Ukraine, you know, potentially into the Baltics, for example. Yeah, or Poland, yeah.