Is Starmer on borrowed time? - The Latest

0:00Archie Bland:This is The Guardian.

0:30Archie Bland:While I get the job done, no spreadsheet in sight. What a life. Do right by yourself and your business and search Xero for your free trial. Conditions apply.

0:45The Mandelson stuff, it's the story that doesn't go away. And this iteration of it is arguably the most difficult for the prime minister. At the heart of this, there is also a judgment I made that was wrong. I should not have appointed Peter Mandelson. I take responsibility for that decision.

1:04Archie Bland:Will the Prime Minister finally take responsibility and go? Yeah! We hear this from Labour MPs, that even though they think that his position is probably ultimately terminal, they would prefer to do it later in the year, partly because that would mean that Andy Burnham might be an MP again, and he is seen by a lot of people as the one who could lead them to a better position. Keir Starmer is fighting for his political future in the wake of the Mandelson vetting saga and ahead of the crucial May local elections. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth. Well, with me is Archie Bland, the Guardians head of national news.

1:44Archie Bland:Thanks for dialing in, Archie. It's great to see you. So the sun is out. It's set to be a very beautiful weekend, but not one that is likely to be relaxing for Keir Starmer after the events of this week, but not least because he's likely going to be going to the Emirates tomorrow to watch Arsenal play. And perhaps the only thing more uncertain than his premiership is Arsenal's chances of winning the league. But let's talk about what's happened this week, because there's been a few very significant interventions, hasn't there? There was, of course, Sir Oliver Robbins speaking to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee on Tuesday, the former Permanent Secretary of the Foreign Office, which we covered on Tuesday's show.

2:19Archie Bland:But also Kat Little, who was the most senior civil servant in the Cabinet Office, who spoke of the fact that she was not given these key vetting documents related to the appointment of Mandelson as US ambassador, which again pours yet more water on this claim from Keir Starmer that due process was followed. Yeah, and you know it has felt like a week in which we have been exposed to the, although it's a cliche, the most Sir Humphrey-ish version of the civil service, in this case in competition, because you've had these two accounts from these very senior civil servants framed in quite cautious and precise language that's often difficult to follow.

3:02you often feel like you need a PhD in this stuff to get your head around it, but actually that have been, if this is possible, quietly explosive. So the thing about Kat Little's evidence, as you say, that was really significant is that she said that the Foreign Office, Ollie Robbins, refused to hand over this summary of Mandelson's security vetting to her, and she was the person who was in charge of putting together the documents that Parliament had sought to be released by this mechanism called the humble address. So that's really important because it suggests that Robbins was perhaps taking a view that Parliament's right to see this material, even through the mechanism of the ISC, the Security Committee that is tasked with reviewing the most sensitive stuff, was at least in question.

3:51And that is something that puts a lot of pressure on him, even as he had previously put pressure on Keir Starmer. So it has been a really difficult week for everybody involved. But by the end of it, it does feel like if some had hoped that all of this evidence would put him in a stronger position, it still feels like a war between mandarins, but one that will ultimately rebound on him.

4:15Archie Bland:Yeah. And we've also had Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British Intelligence Service, writing for The Guardian, criticising the decision of the Foreign office not to reveal these vetting documents, but also criticising Keir Starmer's political judgment. And the two things are interlinked as per his opinion. Yeah, what Richard Dearlove has to say is really significant. He's a former head of MI6 and he is voicing something that I think is important to hear in this conversation, because whereas Ollie Robbins and quite a lot of the civil servants who have supported him have sought to cast it as entirely ordinary or at least understandable for the Foreign Office to override the decision of this group called UK Security Vetting.

5:03Dear Love makes the point that while Robbins has sought to present this as a borderline decision, that isn't what UK Security Vetting came back with, in fact. They came back with quite a clear verdict and it is entirely in Robin's gift to override that but it is also very unusual to do so and claiming that it is borderline should not dilute what we know from the evidence which is that they did in fact reach this clear conclusion and you know what Dearlove said is that you might say it's borderline you might say that the decision was difficult to take but once that decision is taken in his words there are no grey areas there are no soft edges and if somebody is denied develop vetting, then they shouldn't have access to the kinds of material that it provides.

5:46So that is a really significant intervention in all of this, I think, and one that creates really difficult questions for Ollie Robbins over why he made that call in this case.

5:54Archie Bland:Yeah, absolutely. And it is not over yet. We're set for another bumper week of select committee appearances. We've got Morgan McSweeney, Keir-Sama's former chief of staff, who will be appearing before MPs in that committee on Tuesday. McSweeney being someone who was known to have a relationship with Lord Mandelson, who was influential in the decision to appoint him as US ambassador and who has reportedly had his phone stolen at a time when there are real questions around that time of the appointment. So it'll be fascinating to hear from him. And unfortunately for Starmer and his government will thrust this right to the top of the news agenda yet again.

6:35Yeah, and Tuesday is certainly going to be a box office moment for those without a dog in this fight to mix my metaphors i mean it is going to be a really interesting day to see morgan mcsweeney giving evidence because he is one of the central figures in all of this and one of the questions has been whether he is the person who applied the pressure that robbins said was felt in the foreign office over mandelson's appointment he has said uh yesterday that he doesn't recognize that description. MPs will certainly want to ask him about it. But perhaps more significant in the long run and more telling is evidence the same day from Philip Barton, who is Ollie Robbins' predecessor at the Foreign Office.

7:17That's so important because actually Robbins was only in place for the last couple of weeks of the process of appointing Peter Mandelson. And when he gave evidence earlier this week, he said that he understood, in a very civil service kind of euphemistic way he said basically that it was what he had understood about philip barton's period in charge that had led him to the conclusion that this pressure had been applied keir starmer has denied any pressure was applied in the foreign office to get this through if philip barton contradicts that that creates a situation where there was either either some astonishing miscommunication or one or other of them is misleading the public and obviously if keir Starmer is deemed to have misled the public.

8:00His position, again, looks very difficult.

8:02Archie Bland:There are now 13 days before these very important May 7th local elections. I think there was a sense in the last few weeks that Keir Starmer's position was bolstered by his strong response to the Iran war, his strong response to pressure from Donald Trump in the White House, and that people were prepared to rally around him, even if the results of those elections were catastrophic, as they are predicted to be for Labour. But I mean, this last week has been hugely damaging for him. Where do you think things stand now? So yeah, I think there has been a feeling that, and this is what counts for good news in Downing Street recently, that things have been flatlining rather than cratering because there's a war.

8:44Yeah, you know, hooray. But because of the war in Iran and because of the position that Starmer staked out and how that has contrasted quite helpfully with the position set out by reform and the Conservatives, and because of a sense also that changing leaders in the middle of an international crisis is not something that the public are particularly keen for you to do, that has all felt quite helpful for him. The Mandelson stuff, it's the story that doesn't go away, and this iteration of it is arguably the most difficult for the Prime Minister. If the question is whether Keir Starmer will face a challenge after those local elections, I do think that remains a real possibility you know there are some arguments and and you can see a very strong case and we hear this from Labour MPs that even though they think that his position is probably ultimately terminal they would prefer to do it later in the year partly because that would mean that Andy Burnham might be an MP again and he is seen by a lot of people as the one who could lead them to a better position but what I think you can't really legislate for at this point is just what the mood is going to be on the Friday morning after those local elections.

9:52If it is starting to become clear that Labour has taken a real drubbing across England and in Scotland and in Wales, then you're going to start to hear some voices whose, frankly, emotional position might get a little bit ahead of their analysis of where they want ideally to be. Starmer is sort of helped by the fact that there isn't an outstanding candidate to replace him in parliament right now that Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting and Siobhan and Mahmood all have their own problems. But it's also possible that MPs will conclude anything has got to be a bit better than this.

10:23Archie Bland:Yes, it sounds like from what you're saying that it's a question of when, not if. And there's been some fascinating reporting from our colleagues in the lobby, Jessica Elgort and Kieran Stacey, about MPs sort of effectively making a pact that they'll stand by Starmer until Burnham is in a position where he's able to take over. And that would obviously involve him becoming an MP, not mayor of Manchester. We should also say that a few days after the May the 7th elections, there's due to be the second batch of Mandelson documents. So, you know, the storm is not going anywhere, is it? Yeah. And meanwhile, you have the endlessly vexed relationship with Donald Trump, although I don't know that that necessarily rebounds badly on Keir Starmer as far as the public are concerned.

11:06But just the general fact that Labour's polls are not going in a good direction and that seems very difficult to change. There is beginning to be a situation where there is a kind of a deadline on changing things so that whoever is in charge has the time and the space to try to put together a policy programme that will have shown evidence of success before the next election and give Labour a fighting chance of doing as well as they possibly can. And I think you would find very, very few Labour MPs who would say privately that they expected Keir Starmer to be the Prime Minister by the next election.

11:40But it really is all to play for exactly when that happens. And as I say, I think it's probably a question of whether they're able to bite their lips after the local elections. And indeed, whether any of this Mandelson stuff and whether the evidence that we hear from Philip Barton and Morgan McSweeney next week makes that position look unsustainable, because that is the wild card in all of this. There are still more to come out and that will be a key factor in determining Keir Starmer's future. Gosh, tense times.

12:11Archie Bland:Thank you so much for your time, Archie. Thank you very much. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Archie Bland, The Guardian's head of national news. You can keep up with all our reporting over at theguardian.com. And I do recommend today's episode of Politics Weekly America. Jonathan Friedman will be exploring why Donald Trump is more ruthless in his second term and whether the FBI's Kash Patel could be next. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus, we'll be back in your feeds on Monday morning. The Latest, we'll be back on Monday night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff.

12:44Archie Bland:It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

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