Is the UK spending enough on defence? – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:10There is more money going into AI. There is more money going into trains. Military experts would say that's not enough, but then they always do. When the world is arming and aggression is rising, the best way to avoid war is to prepare for it. Defence sources say it's not enough. And we know that the Ministry of Defence actually asked for£28 billion extra spending. They've ended up with£15 billion. This falls quite far short of what was asked for. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough. Keir Starmer has announced his long-awaited defence investment plan for the UK.

0:48It was due to be published in the autumn, but was pushed back several months. Kieran Stacey, you're our policy editor. It does look, for anyone who's not watching this on YouTube, like you're about to head off to war yourself. You're reporting from a drone making facility in Maidenhead. Kieran, what was the substance of the speech that we heard today? Yeah, I should apologise to viewers and listeners, by the way, Lucy. The drone making facility you mentioned is by the side of an airfield. So we will have aeroplanes taking off, landing, flying overhead. But, you know, it all adds to the atmosphere.

1:21Well, please don't get on one, Kieran, in the course of recording this podcast. I promise I will stay grounded myself. Yeah. But yet the detail of this, you say it was delayed by several months, delayed by nearly a year, this defence investment plan. And the whole point of it was supposed to be fleshing out how exactly we're going to meet the objectives set out last year by the government in the strategic defence review. So the government wants to do a bunch of things, including contributing to Ukraine's safety in the long term, including helping secure the peace if and when it is achieved in the Gulf.

1:53this was details about how it's going to pay the way to do that it was overall a 15 billion pound package some of that was paid for by taking money off other departments some of it was paid for by reallocating spending within the mod five billion pounds is going towards drones and that's why we're here today that's why aviation is so important it's right at the heart of this defensive investment plan because if there's one thing we've learned from ukraine it's that drones will be absolutely at the centre of whatever war we next find ourselves in. Yeah, that's the message that we've heard from the Prime Minister and also the new Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis, isn't it?

2:31That looking at Ukraine shows us that war is no longer the tanks, the planes of yesteryear. It's about drone warfare. And as you say, a significant proportion of that 15 billion overall spending going on drones. it brings our defence spending up to 3 % of GDP. Is that right? No, not quite. Actually, it's going to bring our defence spending up to more like 2.6%, 2.7 % with an ambition to get it to 3 % in the next parliament. But this has kind of been the crux of the entire internal government round we've had over the last few months. Could we get it to that 3 % in this plan? And in the end, the government has fallen short of that.

3:14So that's actually quite an important distinction. Politicians will tell you we're going to spend 3 % on defence in the next parliament, but they haven't yet said how. Yeah, and it was, of course, one of the reasons why the former Defence Secretary John Healy resigned in a very scathing letter to the Prime Minister in which he said that the government at its current level of defence spending was putting the country at risk. Keir Starmer has warned himself that he thinks or the assessments would say that Russia could invade or attack NATO as early as 2030. Do you think what was announced today has sort of materially moved this investment plan on from what John Healy was so critical of?

3:56It's not a huge change from what John Healy was negotiating. What we know is that there is an extra£1.5 billion going into this defence investment plan above and beyond what Healy managed to secure. Perhaps, unfortunately, from Healy's point of view, a lot of that has actually been taken by pushing back planned repairs to housing for people serving in the armed forces. That was something that Healy was really, really keen on as Defence Secretary. And that money has essentially been raided to help pay for a bit of extra spending now on drones in particular. So, as always with these things, there are payoffs.

4:30Yes, there is a bit more money in this plan, but it has come from somewhere. And Keir Starmer is heading off to a NATO summit next week, which will be one of his likely last appearances on the foreign stage as prime minister. He's very keen to cement his legacy in particular on defence, isn't he? Which is why he's made this major speech today. But as he goes to that NATO summit, I mean, even with this increase, we are still at the bottom of the pile in terms of other NATO countries and what they spend on defence, aren't we? Yes, I think the Prime Minister was hoping to go to that NATO summit with a few good headlines about defence spending so that he could meet Donald Trump and other NATO leaders and say, look at what we're doing.

5:09We're meeting our pledges. However, what he's ended up with is this really bruising government round that you mentioned, Lucy, and a lot of headlines based on comments from existing and previous military personnel saying this just isn't enough. So to a certain extent, it's a little bit of an awkward position for Keir Starmer to go into that summit with. Let's see if Donald Trump decides to pick up on that or if other leaders decide to pick up on that and really embarrass him on the world stage. So it could be difficult internationally at NATO, but also domestically, because some of this funding we understand from the speech is going to be coming from capital projects like roads and energy.

5:51I mean, this stands in quite stark contrast from what we were hearing from Andy Burnham yesterday about improving lives in every postcode and that being about infrastructure, things like this. So he's likely to face some pushback from people within his own party as well. It does sound like it's been quite the battle with the Treasury to find the money to increase defence spending in this way. Yeah, there really has. I mean, I have been tracking this now for several months, and I have to say the internal government rows that this particular plan has caused are some of the worst I have seen of the Keir Starmer government.

6:27Really? Essentially, what we had is a standoff between John Healy, the Defence Secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, to the extent that they didn't seem to be speaking towards the end of Healy's time in office. And I was told yesterday that actually Healy had decided not to negotiate directly with the Treasury at all and do everything via Keir Starmer in number 10. I'm also told that Keir Starmer grew increasingly frustrated at Rachel Reeves herself, blaming her for her intransigence, for not finding the extra money that he believed was needed and that John Healy believed was needed. I should say it was all smiles today as we were here in Maidenhead.

7:05And Keir Starmer actually gave some very warm, very heartfelt comments about Rachel Reeves that almost seemed like he was trying to pitch her as Chancellor in a future Andy Burnham government. But this has caused deep, deep divisions within the Labour government. And on the subject of Andy Burnham, Andy Burnham is someone who hasn't spoken much about foreign policy in his long political career. Certainly more recently, it was something that he was very keen not to speak about whilst on the campaign trail in Makerfield. Keir Starmer said that this is a defence investment plan that his successor will take on.

7:38But what do we know about that? Do we know that Andy Burnham has seen this, signed it off himself? Is he likely to perhaps make any changes? Really good question. And we asked that question of the prime minister in their Q &A afterwards, and he didn't really answer it. did Andy Burnham get a sight of this before it was published? As far as we can tell, he didn't. We are told by allies of Burnham that he is happy, you know, to take this as his settlement. He probably would like, for publicity reasons apart from anything else, to be able to announce a bit of extra money when he comes in. But there was one, I thought, really significant moment in today's press conference.

8:14The Prime Minister started talking at length about why it is not a good idea to borrow to pay for more defence spending. And specifically, he mentioned the idea of defence bonds. Now, the reason he did this is because this is an idea, not that's coming from some opposition party, but from within his own government. In fact, I'm told that very senior people at Number 10 had nearly signed off on the idea of creating special defence bonds to pay for higher military spending. But in the end, it ended up getting blocked by the Treasury, which didn't like the idea of extra borrowing full stop. Today, Keir Starmer made it very clear that he now backed that Treasury position.

8:51He didn't think it was a good idea to borrow extra for defence, even if you create a new type of bond to do so. And that's a real challenge to Andy Burnham now. Keir Starmer has very publicly said this would be new borrowing. This is not a good idea. Does Andy Burnham decide to pick up an idea that Keir Starmer's own advisers were urging him to pursue just a few months ago? In fact, just a few weeks ago. Or does he listen to what the Prime Minister's just said publicly and find another way of getting extra money, if he does at all, for defence? Yeah, well, it sounds like there's going to be a lot of scrutiny for Andy Burnham over that in the weeks to come, given that he could be Prime Minister as soon as in three weeks' time.

9:29Given that you've been covering this for such a long time, Kieran, I mean, what are you hearing from defence experts about the extent to which this investment plan bolsters the UK's defences in the longer term, given how fast technology is moving, both in terms of artificial intelligence, but also drone warfare? Just in the terms of the sheer amount, defence sources say it's not enough. And we know that the Ministry of Defence actually asked for£28 billion extra spending. They've ended up with£15 billion, some of which is recycled from within the MOD's budget. So this falls quite far short of what was asked for by military chiefs a few months ago.

10:06Having said that, the Treasury counters that, wait a second, we did a defence review last year. You told us that was fully funded. and now you've come back to ask us for tens of billions of extra spending. We can't simply carry on like that. And so you've ended up in this position where neither side probably is particularly happy. There is more money going into AI, there is more money going into drones. Military experts would say that's not enough. But then they always do. And Treasury types will tell you that the MID has a record of mismanaging major projects. And so, if anything, maybe a slightly more incremental approach where you raise defence spending a bit more slowly and track the projects a bit more carefully as they go through the system.

10:47They think that would work better. Particularly in the rapidly changing world we're living in. Kieran, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for having me. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to our policy editor and host of Politics Weekly, Kieran Stacey. Keep up with his reporting over at TheGuardian.com. And I really recommend this morning's episode of Today in Focus, which is looking at why youth unemployment is spiralling and the damage it could do to their long term prospects and the country. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds on Monday morning.

11:18The latest will be back on Monday night. This episode was produced by Leo Schick. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgoban. The executive producer was Zoe Hitch.

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