Is this the end of Viktor Orbán’s regime?

0:00Flora Garamvolgyi:This is The Guardian.

0:08Flora Garamvolgyi:Today, why Viktor Orban's illiberal democracy may finally be coming to an end in Hungary.

0:25Thank you, thank you. Wow.

0:30Flora Garamvolgyi:With the US in the middle of a war, you might think J.D. Vance had better things to do than fly to Hungary this week. Yet right as Trump was threatening to wipe out civilisation in Iran, the vice president appeared live on stage in Budapest alongside Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary. So before I started my remarks, I actually had a special guest that asked that I give him a phone call. Let's hope he actually answers, but this is going to be very embarrassing. I'm sorry, the person you were trying to reach has a voicemail box that has not been set up yet. Okay, try one more time. It's ringing.

1:10It's progress. Hello, Mr. President. How are you? Hi. Hey, J.D., could you give me a second? I'm just... Mr. President, you are on with about 5 ,000 Hungarian patriots, and I think they love you even more than they love Viktor Orban. Well, I can't believe that. I can't believe that because I love Hungary and I love that Victor. I'll tell you, he's a fantastic man. We've had a tremendous relationship.

1:38Flora Garamvolgyi:Trump sang Orbán's praises. He didn't allow people to storm your country and invade your country like other people have and ruin their countries, frankly. He's kept your country good. He's kept Hungarian people in your country. And he's done a fantastic job. Vance made no attempt to hide why he was there. We have got to get Viktor Orban re-elected as Prime Minister of Hungary, don't we?

2:08Flora Garamvolgyi:Though he insisted he wasn't telling people how to vote in this Sunday's election. I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for. But what I am telling you is that the bureaucrats and Brussels, those people should not be listened to. Listen to your hearts, listen to your souls, And listen to the sovereignty of the Hungarian people.

2:35Flora Garamvolgyi:But the fact he made the trip, with his wife Usher in tow, 20 weeks pregnant with their fourth child, shows just how keenly the Trump administration is watching this election, which could be the most consequential in the whole of Europe this year. Because if the polls are correct, Orban is on his way out. After 16 consecutive years as prime minister, But why do Trump and Vance care so much about a tiny country four and a half thousand miles away from Washington? And what will it mean for them and their movement if Orban falls? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt. Today in Focus. Could this be the end of the dictator?

3:16Flora Garanvogi, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for having me.

3:19Flora Garamvolgyi:So Flora, we're talking just after the US Vice President J.D. Vance made quite an unusual trip to Budapest, dragging along his pregnant wife for the ride. And as we've heard already, Vance called Trump on the phone when he was in the middle, when Trump was in the middle of threatening to wipe out Iran, negotiating a ceasefire. Why does Trump care so much about the elections of a country so far away, a country with just 9 million people? Hungary has been a model for the Trump presidency for a while now. Victor, Victor. We love Victor. Victor, I call him. You know, I put the little accent on it.

3:59You are fantastic. And U.S. Republicans looked at Hungary for these past years as a model to follow, basically. Orban's family policies were really the appeal for them. They were thinking about implementing something similar in U.S. policies as well. But I think there's a lot more to this topic. Orban is currently on his fourth consecutive term. And the fact that he has been so successful and he had similar narratives, similar ideologies to U.S. Republicans in terms of immigration, for example. I think they have found a link to connect with Orbán and they were studying his success.

4:48Flora Garamvolgyi:And what did that model look like? What was this blueprint that Orbán provided for Trump and others to follow? Some of the things that we are seeing happening in the US have already happened in Hungary. A crackdown on the independence of the judiciary, also taking over institutions such as universities. and a general hostility towards global institutions. And let's talk a bit about what it's been like as a journalist reporting on Orban. In September 2022, a European Parliament report said that Hungary can no longer be considered a full democracy and labelled it an elected autocracy. And we know that with autocracies come a crackdown on the media.

5:30Flora Garamvolgyi:Yeah, what's it been like for journalists? When I started out, it was much easier to talk to politicians. It was much easier to get answers from government institutions. So when I send out a media inquiry, now I'm 100 % sure that I'm not going to get an answer. There is a risk if you publish something that is critical of the government, that the pro-government media will publish a smear article about you, where they call you all sorts of different things, such as a spy. So right now, about 80 % of the media is in the hands of the government or somebody just close or friendly to Orban.

6:19Flora Garamvolgyi:So tell me, how materially has Hungary changed since he's been in power? Hungary has changed a lot in the sense that this country had a really promising glimpse of democracy, that it's going to be a democratic country. And then we're going to be part of the EU, going to receive EU funds. And then the future looked bright when he started out in politics. but then he took a more of a turn to the far right. As someone who was born in Hungary, grew up in Hungary, what I can see is that it's a country where it's increasingly risky to say your political opinion out loud because it can cost your job or your financial situation.

7:13Flora Garamvolgyi:He made this really quite startling statement in 2014 that he was building an, quote, illiberal state.

7:27What did he mean by that? So he made that famous speech in Balai Etusnaed, Romania, where he spoke about Hungary being an illiberal democracy. democracy. What that meant is that he limited media pluralism in Hungary, propaganda was starting to become a part of state media, and he reshaped institutions and he took over institutions that did not belong to the government before.

8:03Flora Garamvolgyi:Right, okay. And I wonder, do you think that people liked having this strongman leader? They liked his idea. This is Hungary first, that we're going to put national interests ahead of global interests. Do you think that was a key factor in his success for so long? Definitely. I think for his supporters, that was a message that they were very much on board with. When you talk to Viktor Orban's supporters, they will tell you that they love him as a person and that he defended the country from all of these enemies. And he's a great leader who defends our country also in Brussels from leaders of the EU.

8:43His friendship with Donald Trump is also a big one for his supporters. They are very proud of that relationship between the U.S. president and Viktor Orban. He poses as this regular Hungarian guy. He often emphasizes that he's from Feltude, which is a small town, and that is a big part of his image and of his popularity with his supporters.

9:13Flora Garamvolgyi:Orban returns to power in 2010. He'd had an earlier four-year stint, which ended in 2002. But it was probably only in 2015 when most of the rest of the world took notice of what Orban was doing. and that was when he refused to take in Syrian refugees. And I really remember that time so starkly. His position was in stark contrast, wasn't it, to how Angela Merkel in Germany approached the issue. She famously said, we can cope with this. And Germany ended up taking more than 1 million refugees in. Merkel's out of office. Orban is still there. You've got the AFD, Anti-Immigration Party in Germany, snapping at the heels of the establishment in Germany.

9:55Flora Garamvolgyi:To what extent has Orban's harsh line on immigration been seen as a success both within and outside Hungary? Orban really played that anti-immigration campaign on people's fear. It's really easy to sell an idea to people that there is something to be afraid of when it comes to foreigners, when it comes to different cultures, right? And Orban has been pushing this campaign very successfully. billboards over the country were showing a huge mass of Middle Eastern men standing in line. And there was a gigantic stop sign. The message that Hungarians received is that this is something to be scared of.

10:44And he built up a propaganda around migrants being violent, especially towards women. And the Hungarian pro-government media really focused on any instance they could find anywhere in the world where a person of immigrant background committed a crime.

11:14Flora Garamvolgyi:You were at this rally in Budapest on Tuesday night. What was it like? How did it compare to Orban rallies of old? It was really interesting to see Vice President J.D. Vance say very similar sentences to what we have heard from Orban before. So to me, it sounded a lot like an Orban rally, but with English translation, basically. Focusing a lot on blaming Brussels bureaucrats for literally everything that is happening right now. Yeah. Vance was also talking about a really high level of foreign interference in the Hungarian campaign, which we have heard in the pro-government media quite a lot. But then he went on saying that he's here to help Viktor Orban in this campaign.

12:11What he pointed out in that speech that he found concerning, he was doing the exact same thing, basically.

12:18Flora Garamvolgyi:And the pollsters think that a brand new party led by a guy called Peter Magyar will win the elections. Tell me about him. His surname means Hungarian in Hungarian. It's actually a very common surname here. And he is a very interesting figure because he is coming from the establishment. He is coming from Fidesz, Orbán's party. And when watching his documentary, it was really interesting to see when he was asked about his friends currently. You could see him struggle because all of his friends before he turned on Orbán were from Fidesz circles. He was the husband of the former Justice Minister Judith Varga.

13:01Flora Garamvolgyi:And Peter Magyar seems to be going pretty hard on the idea that Orbán's regime is corrupt. How important a role does corruption play in Hungarians seeming to be falling out of love with Orban? I will give you a very visual example of corruption. So Lurins Mesaos, Viktor Orban's childhood friend, used to be a gas fitter. And now he is worth more than$4.8 billion. dollars. He is now a businessman in construction, energy, banking, media firms. And an estate linked to Mesaros has, according to a report, zebras and other exotic animals on it. And since then, zebras became a symbol of these anti-Orban protests.

13:55Zebra toys, like plush toys, and zebra masks and signs are showing up because it's such a huge symbol of this anti-Urban movement this past year. Another big scandal was when it turned out that Hungary's president, Katalin Novak, has co-signed a pardon for a person who was a co-conspirator in a pedophile case in an educational institutional institution. And the other person who co-signed this paper was Judith Varga, the justice minister.

14:33Flora Garamvolgyi:Ah, yes, the ex-wife of Peter Maga. I've heard rumours of a sex tape involving him and a former girlfriend. And it gives me the sense that maybe there are some dirty tricks afoot in this election. Tell me about this tape. Is it real? During this election campaign, Fidesz has really turned on the heat with all of its efforts to win, including floating the idea of a sex tape existing of Mayor. And what he has said is that we're not really going to see anything else but two consenting adults on this video. Unless it's about drugs or multiple people being involved, I don't think Hungarian society is going to care that much about this state.

15:29Flora Garamvolgyi:One of the hallmarks of Orbán's regime has been his hostility towards the EU, which I find particularly interesting given that during his first stint as prime minister, which ended in 2002, He was the guy basically preparing for Hungary to join the EU in 2004. But tell us, what is Orbán's problem with the EU and how has that played out over the past 16 years? His main struggle with the EU is that the funds the EU is sending to Hungary are not being used in an appropriate way. The EU's view is that Orbán is misusing these funds to enrich Orbán's circles, and these funds have gone to businessmen in the circles of FIDAS, and it did not benefit the Hungarian people.

16:18The European Commission has decided to take a strong stance against Hungary. It calls on EU countries to freeze 7.5 million euros of EU cohesion funds, as the country has not made enough progress with its reforms against corruption.

16:35Flora Garamvolgyi:How has that affected your ordinary Hungarians' life? Where it has been most apparent is that Hungarians are still struggling to make a living. The salaries are not on the level of your average EU salary. we do have free health care in Hungary, but it also comes with a really, really long waiting time. Right. Hospitals that are not necessarily the most acceptable in Hungary. And this is something that you see on a daily level in Hungarian social media, where Hungarians are showing that this is not the health care they signed up for. What about energy prices? Because one of the claims that J.D.

17:21Flora Garamvolgyi:Vance made in Budapest this week is that Hungarians pay lower prices for their electricity and gas because of Orbán's policies. Is that true? Yes. So partially Orbán's relations to Russia is justified by low energy prices resulting from cheap Russian energy coming to Hungary. So that is one reason where Orbán justifies his really close relations to Putin since the war broke out. Yeah, and I wonder how that relationship with Putin goes down with your average Hungarian. And I think their friendship has come under particular scrutiny during this campaign, hasn't it? How close are they? Well, we have just seen a new report by Bloomberg that shows a transcript where Orban and Putin are on the phone.

18:15and Orban basically is likening himself to a mouse who is standing ready to help Russia, which is the lion.

18:24Flora Garamvolgyi:My goodness. And he's ready to help Putin as needed based on this transcript. This is not something that we have not suspected before. So we have seen high-level Hungarian officials, including our foreign minister, Ciartho, traveling to Moscow several times since Russia invaded Ukraine. This is a very unusual thing because if we're looking at the surrounding countries like Poland, this is not something that their foreign ministers or prime ministers are doing. So Hungary has really chosen a path where they have kept their tight relations with Russia despite Russia's attacks. And there's been a lot of controversy, hasn't there, about a leaked phone call between the Hungarian foreign minister and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov.

19:13Flora Garamvolgyi:Tell me about that. Hello. Hello, Sergei, this is Peter speaking. Yes, Peter, are you in St. Petersburg? So the Washington Post has reported a few weeks ago that Peter Siyarto and his Russian counterpart, Lavrov, has been making phone calls even when Siyarto was in Brussels at EU meetings. And he has been forwarding information to Lavrov about what has been going on on these closed door meetings with EU leaders. This is something that has been confirmed to us at The Guardian too. We reported about this as well. And this has been something that was kind of an open secret in Brussels for a while now.

20:01But this is the first time we have seen proof in a form of recorded phone conversations between the two ministers.

20:11Flora Garamvolgyi:Yeah, it's quite astonishing. I heard a clip of the phone call and it's really, you know, you could argue that it's a pretty treacherous thing to do. You were on all headlines in the Russian media today. Oh, did I say something wrong? No, no, no, no. They were just saying that you are pragmatically fighting for the interests of your country. Oh, well, that's a very, let's say, nice, let's say, analysis of the situation. Nice way to put it. And given that, you know, one of the biggest points of disagreements between the EU and Hungary in recent years has been Orbán's approach to the Ukraine war and his unwillingness really to help the Ukrainians.

20:53Flora Garamvolgyi:Can you just briefly outline what Orbán's view is on the Ukraine conflict and how he's using that to try and win re-election? So there are two things that we have to mention here. One is that when we're walking around here in Budapest, we're seeing Zelensky's face, the Ukrainian president's face plastered all over these billboards in Hungary. This is a wanted style photo where the text says he's dangerous. And there are other billboards as well where he is shown with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen. and they are shown as the force behind the Hungarian opposition. And the other thing is that Orbán has really built his 2022 election campaign on peace.

21:42The slogan was, we are the country of peace. Our goal is to have peace. But he never really explained what that peace would look like for Ukraine. So we're seeing elements of the 2022 campaign built into this campaign this year, the 2026 one, where pro-government social media campaigns are built on the slogan of this is not our war. We want to be excluded from this war. Hungary just wants to be safe. And they are even going a step further where they are saying we're not going to send Hungarian troops to Ukraine. Is that on the table, though?

22:23Flora Garamvolgyi:I mean, is that realistic that Hungarian troops could be sent? Absolutely not. But still, I can see how that would sort of play into the fears of the population. And as you've already mentioned, if Orbán is telling Hungarians that they've got cheap energy because it's come from Russia, then is there a sympathy towards Russia within the Hungarian population rather than with Ukrainians? Hungarians are not necessarily sympathetic towards Russia. And I have seen a lot of really kind gestures towards Ukrainians when the war broke out. So Hungarians were willing to offer their couch or their spare room to Ukrainian refugees.

23:01I think this is something that is typical of Hungarians, this welcoming spirit towards people in need. And that was really beautiful to see. So I wouldn't say that is a sympathy or leaning towards Russia, but more like accepting this narrative that is coming from the government, that this is a necessary relationship.