Is Trump trying to buy votes? – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:10It's a bit of a promise, a bit of a kind of sop to the MAGA faithful who are inclined to believe what Trump says. I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for$5 ,000. But it is a gamble. And indeed, a lot of Republicans distanced themselves from that event. They didn't want to show up. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough. Donald Trump has given this mammoth two-hour rambling speech at the first ever Republican midterm convention. Devika Bhatt, you're one of our global editors. He pledged during this speech that every American would receive$5 ,000 if the Republicans win in the midterms in November.

0:59Before we come on to kind of what that means and if it's legal, it shows a president who is clearly very underconfident about his chances in November, right? Hi, Lucy. Yes, I think that's sort of right on two fronts, both the fact that this event was held at all. As you say, it's the first ever for the Republicans. The Democrats have held conventions years and years ago in the 70s and 80s, three times, I think, and decided never again. And it wasn't a good idea in the long run. But Trump not to be put off by precedent or learning from previous history, perhaps, has decided to go ahead with this.

1:36And, you know, very much, it's his happy place, as my colleague David Smith put it in his piece today. It's a place where the MAGA faithful were there in the front row, the crowds, the adoring crowds are there. He could speak at length, as you say, in quite a rambling way, and not necessarily be held to account for the truth or veracity of his statements. And it does definitely feel like one of the biggest reasons for doing this is to rally the crowds ahead of the midterms. As you say, there was this very grabby headline about him promising this incredible amount of money for each American if the party manages to retain hold of both the Senate and the House.

2:16Yeah, and this comes at a time when Trump's personal poll ratings are absolutely tanking. A poll published in the FT this week said that only 33 % of registered voters approve of his performance. I mean, obviously, the midterms, they're not voting for the president, but it does show that the president is rattled about the Republicans' chances in the midterms. And this$5 ,000 pledge to every adult American citizen feels like an incentive to vote Republican in November. How on earth would it work? Yeah, I think it raises all sorts of difficult questions as to how it would work and the logistics of it.

3:00As often is the case with Trump, he was very light on detail on how this would work. economists think this would cost well over one trillion dollars which is no small amount even for the biggest economy in the world you know the legal question is an interesting one because it's very clearly against federal law to offer payments in order to try to influence the way someone's going to vote in an election that's pretty clear but if trump can and his team can sort of frame this as actually they have tried to in the past as a sort of general sort of economic pledge, you know, for all Americans, then it becomes a bit more tricky legally to challenge it.

3:39You know, we did see Trump in the sort of when Doge, in the sort of heyday of Doge and Elon Musk trying to sort of supposedly eliminate waste in government spending. Trump at one point promised that the profits from that would go to the American people via paychecks. And that I think is still, we've never seen that actually transpire in reality. So how this would work, There's little detail on that, but there would definitely be obstacles to come if he did try to implement this. Yeah. Those halcyon days of Doge and Elon Musk in the White House. J.D. Vance followed up, I think, with sort of trying to clarify a bit more about the detail, because my first thought reading this last night was like, is this going to go to Jeff Bezos?

4:25Does Jeff Bezos need$5 ,000? Arguably not. There is this suggestion that it wouldn't go to the super wealthy and that it would be paid for by US tariff revenue. So as you say, they found kind of like a clever workaround. But can the American economy cope? Because as you say, it's been reported this could cost in excess of a trillion dollars. The annual deficit in the US is already nearly at a$2 trillion. There's been a huge cost of living crisis. Inflation is soaring as a result of the Iran war. I mean, perhaps this 5000 is designed to address that and address the cost of living crisis that people are facing.

5:05I mean, I think that's right. I think, you know, as a sort of headline grabby point, Trump's hoping with a promise like this, he can alleviate some of the sort of economic pain that Americans are sort of feeling or at least have the promise that this could alleviate some of the pain. the cost of living remains the kind of number one issue really as a voting issue or the sort of polling sort of suggests that and it's probably the reason behind his plummeting popularity because americans don't feel better off than they did at the start of his presidency this time around so absolutely i think this is totally designed to appeal to that crowd but as you say in real terms in real economic terms that's no small sum and it would have a knock-on effect experts kind of say undoubtedly on the national debt, on the budget deficit, could have an impact on inflation, although it's hard to measure exactly what that would be.

5:57And that is definitely something he wouldn't want to see. So again, it feels like as things stand, it's a bit of a promise, a bit of a kind of sop to the MAGA faithful who are inclined to believe what Trump says, and who may be being hit hard by the cost of living crisis in particular. But whether it would actually work in practical, real terms in the long run is a very open question. Yeah, and it also seems to be in a way an admission that the Iran war has caused huge economic damage. He spoke about the fact that the Iran war was unlikely to be over by the November midterms. The Iran war is extremely unpopular in the United States.

6:37You know, Trump having been a president who previously said it's the end of interventions on the global stage. And yet he's got trapped into a situation that he seem to get out of that is causing real pain. Yeah. And I think what's sort of interesting in the last few weeks is we've seen a slight sort of pivot, if you like, in his administration and indeed he himself last night, acknowledging that the war won't be over by the time the midterms happen. And I think that's a reality that the Trump team has now had to confront head on. You know, for a long time, there was a lot of denial that, you know, every time we obviously had sort of an attempt at a ceasefire, which then broke down very quickly.

7:13But there's been a sort of outright denial at times of the fact that there is still a war going on. But now we're in a place where it feels like Trump's had to acknowledge that the war won't be over. And so the strategy seems to have shifted slightly to try to just downplay its effect and its impacts. And so, you know, one of the things he said last night was that things will get better economically, oil prices will go back down as soon as the midterms are over. So, you know, vote for me, and it'll all be fine in the long run. But the key concern for Trump and his team about the Iran war at this stage, I think is less about the actual crisis in the Middle East or multiple crises this has caused across that region and sort of devastated that region in ways that it really didn't need and much more about its impact on the American people at home.

8:00Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so in terms of the Democrats, how are they polling at the moment? And how likely is it, Do you think that they'll take both the House and the Senate in November or one of them? So, I mean, that's the sort of golden question, isn't it? We have to generally be suspicious of polling generally around the world. We've seen lots of examples where it hasn't quite come true, but none more so perhaps than in the US, you know, both with Kamala Harris. And obviously when Trump won the first time round, which came as a big shock against Hillary Clinton. So polls, especially when it comes to Trump, are not always the reliable indicator that they may have been at one point for American elections.

8:41But that said, the feeling is that the Democrats have a reasonable chance of taking the House. The Senate is a bit more of a toss up. I think there's polling in recent days that suggests that's, again, moving in the Democrats' favor. It's by no means guaranteed. and we know things can happen in elections quite late in the day to change the kind of game, change the calculus. But it's very conceivable they will take at least one chamber. You know, I think Trump is a president who, more so than any other, does not see himself as of the party and in any way in debt to the party or the Republican Party.

9:19He sees himself as a sort of independent candidate who his party is beholden to. And in many ways that has sort of proven to be correct for him. but he will face hurdles, legislative hurdles, if he does lose control of the House and the Senate and it's definitely something that will make things harder for him even though he clearly has made it clear he doesn't see himself beholden to Congress in a way that other presidents might have done. Yeah and to that point, I mean Trump sort of has become the Republican Party or he's formed it in his image now hasn't he and that's felt true for over a decade now.

9:58that the days of George W. Bush feel like some sort of bygone time. He's both putting this pledge of$5 ,000 if the Republicans win in the midterms, but he's also saying, also said, imagine that I'm on the ballot. You know, you're voting for Republican governors and senators, but, you know, it's me you're voting for. But actually, with his popularity so low, that could turn out to be kind of a liability. Yeah, it's a high stakes gamble. And I think you're right that that statement could almost sum up what last night was about, really, you know, it was the Trump show. It was very much his appeal, putting himself front and centre.

10:38But it is a gamble. And indeed, a lot of Republicans who are actually on the ballots, because of course, Trump is not himself, distanced themselves from that event, they didn't want to show up, you know, he, he was sort of claiming last night, there were massive crowds, and everyone was clamoring to get in, and it was a sold out event. But as our reporting team in the US have sort of reported, today that that's really not the case. And indeed, Republicans were staying away from the event to Republicans who actually are on the ballot. And, you know, there's a real sense that in this campaign, generally, there's been a lot of candidates who've not really talked about Trump.

11:10They've sort of avoided him as a sort of talking point and focused more on sort of attacking their opponents. Because his popularity is low. The reason for that primarily is the cost of living crisis, which has been massively exacerbated by war, as we were just saying, that was started by Trump. It is high risk to do that. It feels like last night was designed less to perhaps sway the kind of swing voters who often determine elections and more to rally the faithful who do like him, do still believe in him, to get them to come out and vote in a way they sometimes don't in midterm elections. You know, they're always there for the presidential ones, but it can be harder to drum up support for the midterms.

11:51And it feels like this was maybe a play to them rather than those swing voters who will have those concerns about the cost of living and his association with what's caused that yeah in their mind well we don't have much longer to wait the midterms fast approaching that's right start to november thanks for having me that's it for today my huge thanks again to devica bat and if you haven't already i really recommend listening to the second series of the guardians chart topping black box hosted by michael Safi. I cannot recommend it highly enough. The new season explores people's relationships with AI chatbots and how they're quietly reshaping our lives.

12:32All episodes are out now. Search Black Box wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ryan Run-Gobin. The The executive producer was Zoe Hitch and it was presented by me, Lucy Hoff.

12:56I felt like I was cheating. It was an overwhelming feeling of guilt. The first chat GPT generation have finished their studies. Some never really started. I can't lie, I still do not feel like any of us should be getting that degree. Black Box, The Chatbots, a new series from The Guardian investigates about the strange things happening between AI and us. The whole series is out right now. Search for Black Box wherever you get your podcasts. This is The Guardian.