RAF Fairford suspected bomb plot: five men arrested are all UK nationals – The Latest

0:00Dan Sabbagh:This is The Guardian.

0:10Dan Sabbagh:That is the top priority of investigators, to work out if there is a state link to this, in particular if it's Iran. The arrest in the UK was fantastic. Working with Britain, it was an amazing job. We had them under investigation. British authorities, investigators have been saying it wasn't an intelligence-led operation. In other words, it was a tip-off from a vigilant member of the public. The impression given is an investigation that's growing in size and complexity, not one that's reducing. From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Half. It's been a very dramatic and fast-moving 24 hours since the early hours of Sunday morning when three vans were found near an RAF base in Gloucestershire.

0:55Five men we now know are British nationals were arrested under the Explosives Act. They've now been released on bail. Dan Sabber, you're our Defence and Security Editor. Let's go back to where this started and how things unfolded.

1:09Dan Sabbagh:Well, it's an extraordinary incident and there are slightly different accounts of what happened. But the essence of it is that a group of what looks like five men in three white vans So it turned up in this Gloucestershire village just by RAF Fairford, really sensitive military site. It's a U.S. airbase. They've been used for the U.S. bomber command for a long time. And most recently in the war, in the bombing campaign against Iran with the permission of the former prime minister, Keir Starmer. So it's an obviously sensitive military site. There has been some noise. Iran has talked about, sort of say, saying that such sites were legitimate military targets in the last few weeks.

1:50Dan Sabbagh:So, you know, three vans, five guys suddenly being found, according to one version of events, just by a local farmer at about sort of 1.35 a.m. But certainly by people ringing in, the police have a slightly different timeline. They say they had a call at 12.45 a.m. But in any event, some unusual activity in an otherwise sleepy village right next to a strategically significant air base. Yeah, this local woman was a farmer that was driving around that time, 1.30 in the morning, who saw this suspicious activity. And she's been on the media round talking about, you know, she said it was pure luck that she encountered this group of three vans.

2:31But obviously, there might be some differing versions of accounts, as you say, which we'll come to because counter terror police have released a statement saying that these are British nationals. They haven't said too much, given that this is an active investigation. But what have they said? And what do we know about the various lines of inquiry?

2:48Dan Sabbagh:You've touched on the most significant thing right there. British nationals from London, it seems. Now, again, why is this important? Because, you know, the scenario that everyone's looking at, the question is everyone is asking is, and this is what investigators will be asking, you know, is this a state-sponsored attack in particular? Is it sponsored by Iran, which would have an obvious interest? you know, might even claim it's a legitimate, you know, legitimate military target. And the fact that these are British nationals, well, I mean, it takes away one possibility because obviously, you know, we were thinking perhaps, or it was being thought that this could be Iranian nationals or people with a very obvious and direct connection with Iran.

3:31Dan Sabbagh:Now that may emerge, we don't know what's going to happen. There's an awful lot that we don't know. But we have seen examples of Iranian nationals being tasked by the Iranian state to engage in hostile reconnaissance of Jewish sites in the UK. There are two men facing trial regarding that, for example. And we have also seen another individual, not an Iranian, being arrested in Cyprus, engaging in hostile reconnaissance, allegedly on the RAF Akritiri base. So, you know, we have seen a kind of backdrop of this kind of activity. But in this case, they're Britons. Obviously, there will be much more information to emerge as the investigation continues.

4:09But as you say, sort of slightly differing versions of accounts, this farmer who said that she witnessed this at 1.30. But Wes Streeting says, the new defence secretary says she has a partial version of events that in fact there was knowledge of suspected activity and that defence and security forces were well prepared to jump in on this. Is that fair to say?

4:33Dan Sabbagh:I'm sure the farmer doesn't know everything. I think we can agree that she does have a partial version of events. So in that respect, the Defence Secretary is absolutely right. There are two contradictory statements have been made, though. Donald Trump said that we had, you know, we've had our eye on these guys for some time and they were planning to do bad things. And I paraphrase, but anyway. But the British authorities, investigators have been saying it wasn't an intelligence led operation. In other words, it was a tip off from a vigilant member of the public from from a local, if not the farmer who's been on the on on the airwaves talking about somebody else or her and somebody else.

5:11Dan Sabbagh:The Brits seem to be acknowledging they're a bit behind the curve and the Americans seem to be saying they were ahead of it. Now, it could be that Donald Trump's exaggerating, but it is also the case that the base itself, the US Air Force had it on the highest security level, they call it Delta. So they were worried about something. So there's this discrepancy here on the level of knowledge and it may well, again, take a while for this to sort of unravel. Yeah, it is a reminder, as you say, of the decision by Keir Starmer not to get directly involved in the Iran war when it broke out at the start of this year, but to allow the US to use UK military sites as air bases.

5:52I mean, regardless of the motives, the identities of the individuals involved, it does show that the use of these sites is putting us at some risk, doesn't it?

6:03Dan Sabbagh:Yes, and I think it does show that even when you're involved in a conflict in a very limited way, again, we don't know the exact motivations here. I suppose we need to be a little bit careful. But I mean, you would make the point that that even though the UK was not a direct or most limited participant in the Iran Middle Eastern conflict and acting, it said, for defense for defensive reasons, mostly to help out allies in the Middle East. But even this sort of limited permission given to the US to allow bombing missions to be run in part from Fairford does highlight the site, does put the site in a greater degree of focus and indeed heighten some of the risks around the site.

6:40Dan Sabbagh:So, yeah, even a peripheral involvement in a conflict can be one that raises security levels around the base and raises issues like that. Yeah, and presumably also the risk of kind of proxy groups related to Iran operating within the UK or retaliatory attacks, as you sort of touched on earlier. Is that something that security services have been looking into in the last few months and sort of fearing that there could be attacks on our soil? That is the top priority of investigators to work out if there is a state link to this in particular, if it's Iran or perhaps any, you know, any other countries that might have some interest in causing mischief or sabotage in the UK, Russia, being obviously one of those.

7:25Dan Sabbagh:You've got to be open-minded at this stage. What we seem to be getting from the sort of update we've had from counter-terror police today is that it looks like the police have got an awful lot more to go at. They will, of course, prioritize, you know, trying to get into people's, once you've identified people, getting into their phones, digital devices, social media, linked accounts. That could produce a whole network of links. So the impression given is an investigation that's growing in size and complexity, not one that's reducing. But we've certainly seen over the last 12 months or so as tensions in the Middle East have risen, as there have been direct attacks on Iran by Israel and by the US.

7:59Dan Sabbagh:We've seen Iran trying to sort of strike back to some extent through organized plots. So Iran is certainly trying to, appears to be trying to spread its wings. Now, whether that's all linked in this case, we don't quite know for sure, but that's clearly got to be the number one line of inquiry. Yeah, well, much more to find out. Thank you so much, Dan. Thanks very much. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Dan Sabah, the Guardian's defence and security editor. You can keep up with all our coverage on this story over at theguardian.com. And I really recommend our sister podcast, Politics Weekly.

8:34Pippa Creera and Kieran Stacey are live from Labour Party Conference, which has got a new leader. And we've been hearing from our new Chancellor, John Healy, today. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today on Focus will be back in your fees as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Angus Neal. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and it was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. This is The Guardian.