Starmer v Burnham: will it split Labour?

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:07Today, will Keir Starmer come to regret blocking Andy Burnham?

0:17Ever since Andy Burnham abandoned Westminster to become Greater Manchester's first ever mayor in 2017, he has been dogged with questions about returning to Parliament for the top job. If you would consider or if you will rule out challenging Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister? I am not going to sit here this morning and kind of rule out what might or might not happen in the future. Is that a never or is that just a not now? I mean, I hesitate because immediately people write stories. But it's not a never answer, but it's not a... I'm not going to go and sort of say every conversation I have with every MP.

0:54I can't launch a leadership campaign. He never hit his ambition to become PM one day. And he couldn't really, given that he had tried and failed twice to become Labour Party leader. But time and again, he insisted that he was perfectly happy back in his beloved north and that he had no plans to get back down to that there London. The party's been too London-centric for too long. Policies haven't been put forward in places like Burnley in mind. the London perspective on life, dominates national policy. So in the North, he needed help. Then on Saturday night, he finally cracked.

1:35It's deadline day for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham. He has just a few hours to decide whether he will try and make a shock return to Parliament in a by-election in Greater Manchester. He wrote to Labour's ruling body to ask for permission to stand in Gorton and Denton, promising a hopeful and unifying campaign. It was a risky move, he admitted. Winning the by-election wasn't a given, and he would have to give up being the mayor if he succeeded. But he said he owed it to a city which has given me so much to lead it from the front, despite the risks involved. Not even 24 hours later, his dream came crashing down.

2:15Andy Burnham's doing a great job as the mayor of Manchester, but having an election for the mayor of Manchester when it's not necessary, would divert our resources away from the elections that we must have and that we must fight and win. When Keir Starmer led a vote to deny him the candidacy, and with it any hope of challenging him, at least for now. Was this the Prime Minister taking the least worst option? Or was it a misstep that will plunge the Labour Party even deeper into a civil war? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pidd. Today in Focus, Starmer versus Burnham. To be continued.

3:01Peter Walker, welcome back. It was only last week that you were on the show talking about all of the Tories joining reform. Another one has just gone, just minutes before we're recording. So Ella Braverman has crossed over to the other side, hasn't she? But today we are talking about drama within the Labour Party. So thanks for being here. That is a pleasure. So let's start with Saturday night. Andy Burnham threw his hat into the ring to stand as Labour's candidate in the forthcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton in East Manchester. And this by-election was called after the early retirement of Andrew Gwynne, who was kicked out of Labour last year for allegedly posting racist messages in a WhatsApp group.

3:38And Burnham knows the area well, of course, because it's part of his patch. But if he was successful in winning the seat, he would have had to step down from his role as Greater Manchester Mayor halfway through his third four-year term. And I've interviewed him so many times over the years when I was North of England editor, and he was always banging on about how happy he was not to be in Westminster anymore. So why do you think he took the leap? I mean, I think you can see it from two points of view. You know, the way that number 10 certainly see it is that he saw it as a chance to get into Westminster to be an MP, and he can only challenge Keir Starmer and potentially take over as PM if he's actually there.

4:15And he saw it as a winnable seat. I mean, Andrew Gwynn had a majority of about just over 13 ,000 last time. And with Andy Burnham's Greater Manchester star power, you just thought he would have won. But the slightly more charitable point of view, which, you know, certainly his allies seem to think is the case, is that a lot of Labour MPs are seeing Labour really, really struggle in the polls. They're seeing Reform UK leading the polls for over a year now. And, you know, admittedly, the election is a long way away. But it could be that in mid-2029 we have a reform government, which I think for a lot of Labour people is a genuinely scary prospect.

4:50And they're thinking, well, you know, if Keir Starmer is not going to stop this, we need someone who can. And rightly or wrongly, a lot of people see Andy Burnham as a person who perhaps has the charisma and vision to stop that. Yeah. And Andy Burnham, when he posted publicly his application letter to Labour's ruling committee, the NEC, saying that he felt that he owed it to the city that had given him so much. He was saying that Greater Manchester faces a brand of politics which seeks to pit people against each other. It brings with it a poison we should not let enter our city region. Do you think he was right in thinking that despite the majority that Andrew Gwynn has left, that reform really do stand a good chance in the by-election?

5:33Labour have given them as little time as possible to campaign by setting the date for the 26th of February, which is just about the earliest they could have done it. I think it's going to be very tough. I think it's going to be a bit of a political street fight, really. I mean, you know, you know the constituency much, much better than me. Next door to me, yeah. But it's a bit of a mixed bag. And it's a sort of one where Labour obviously traditionally have done well. And I had to guess, I think, Burnham being the candidate would have got them over the line. I think reform have their hopes, but also the Greens really, really think they keep on getting in touch you know people from there saying i think we've really got a good chance they've not announced their candidate yet and it's partly because the local party needs to choose but i've been told there might be someone relatively locally high profile who is in the mix so what you might end up is the greens doing very well labor doing quite well and then them cancel each other out and reform getting through the middle so i think any one of all three parties could potentially win it yeah i think the greens will definitely be one to watch i mean there was some excitement over the weekend that Zach Polanski, who is a Mancunian that he might stand, he, I think, has ruled himself out.

6:41But the demographics of the seat would seem to favour the Green Party. You've got places like Levenshoom, which is in the south of Manchester, kind of middle class, gentrified. It's also a very heavily Asian constituency. 28 % of the constituency are Muslim and, you know, the sort of pro-Gaza vote that the Greens have really pushed that that might also appeal. And did you think that Starmer is basically sacrificing that seat in order just to buy himself a bit more time? I think he's taking a gamble because if Labour wins, then he can say, look, it's absolutely fine. You know, and it wasn't Andy Burnham who was the only one who could win it, but it's one hell of a gamble.

7:18Yeah. Because it's going to be quite a fight. Yeah. I mean, most Labour people that I talk to in Greater Manchester do privately think that it's going to be a real battle to hold on to that seat without Andy Burnham as the candidate. He won 63 % of the vote in the last mayoral election in 2024. He won 67 % in the election. Before that, he won all 10 boroughs. He wiped the floor with everybody else. These are statistics Keir Starmer can dream of. Well, exactly. The Prime Minister is a busy man. But yesterday, on a Sunday morning, the Prime Minister found time to attend a meeting which blocked the Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's bid to run in that by-election.

8:02Critics say it's a stitch-up to save Starmer's skin. What do you make of the NET's decision, Mr Burnham? I'm not making any comment. I said what I needed to say. Here I am, back in my job, full focus on my job as Mayor of Greater Manchester. Do you think Keir Starmer is scared of you? I'm not making any further comment. I've said everything that I needed to say.

8:28And we're talking about this decision to block Andy Burnham as if it came purely from Keir Starmer, but officially it was a committee, wasn't it, of the National Executive Committee, a sort of subcommittee, I suppose. The officers group, it's apparently called. OK, and who is on this board and who voted in which way? Well, there's a series of people. There's some cabinet ministers, some ordinary members. Lucy Powell, as the deputy leader, is on there. She was the only one who voted in favour of Andy Burnham being able to stand. A Manchester MP, of course, yeah. Exactly. And fairly close to him.

8:59Keir Starmer is one of them. He voted against it. Shabana Mahmood is the National Executive Committee chair. So she abstained because as chair she meant to be neutral. But basically, Number 10 kind of knew that if they wanted to stop Bernie, it'd be quite easy. The scale of the vote was, I think, better than even they thought. Apparently, the meeting was just quite quick. And one of the Starmer allies who rang me to let me know what the result was, which as it turned out later, they were telling us before Burnham had been told, which is a bit naughty, could barely keep the glee out of their voice.

9:32Really? They're going, 8-1. So, you know, it's a classic Labour stitch up. You know, every party does it, but Labour does it in its own special way. Tell us, how did Starmer justify blocking Burnham? Well, the reason which was given in a statement the Labour Party put out later was a reasonably good one, which makes sense in many ways. It's the fact that Andy Burnham is currently less than two years through his four year term. And that under law, because there's laws that people who have control of the police, so whether they're a metro mayor or a police and crime commissioner, can't be an MP at the same time.

10:05So even if he stood, he was going to have to step down for the role. And that would mean an election to have a new Greater Manchester Mayor. And this is quite a big thing. So the mayoralty covers 20 constituencies. And for Labour, this would have meant having to vote a lot of resources, probably at the same time that the May elections are taking place, which are already ridiculously busy. You've got the English local councils and you've got the Scottish and Welsh elections too. and it was basically, you know, so Labour argued a problem that they didn't need. Yeah, and I don't think it's a completely bogus argument.

10:38It would be a big faff to have to poll two million people in Greater Manchester. Well, there is also an argument which I'm sure when, you know, Burnham emerges to be interviewed next, people are put to him. You say so much how much you enjoy the job. Why are you giving up halfway through? Why not wait for two more years? And there is an argument which, you know, some Labour MPs will make is that it doesn't look that good for Andy Burnham and he could and perhaps should have just, you know, waited and not created a problem for the Labour Party. It's not just about that. It's also about the political drama that this is causing around a potential leadership challenge, isn't it?

11:14Well, the rule that we introduced in relation to these situations was introduced by the Labour Party two years ago. And whether or not you buy the official explanation from Starmer, It is certainly not the move of a confident prime minister, is it? And it looks more like the move of somebody who is pretty insecure and many people would also say weak. It makes the prime minister look weak if those who are advising him are trying to seek to influence the decision of the NEC. The reality is this. If Burnham is the king of the north, surely the Labour Party exists only to win parliamentary seats. and Andy Burnham is very probably the best candidate to do that.

11:57And do you think that Burnham was surprised that the NEC blocked him or do you think he kind of factored that in as all part of his grand plan? My guess is that when he decided to go for it, he thought it was a possibility they would let him stand. You know, and it's by no means certain that he would have even been picked for the seat because that was up to the local party. It was likely though, yeah. Well, it was, but the NEC could have exerted some kind of control. But yes, it's fair to say that hurdle was the biggest one. But I think the moment his letter announcing he wanted to run for it was greeted immediately by these various, you know, Starmer allies explaining to their friends in the media where this was a bad idea.

12:39I'm disappointed he's taking the risk. He gave a commitment that he would serve the term. And secondly, it's an open secret that there is support for reform in Greater Manchester. We don't know how much exactly. And particularly the moment he saw it wasn't the full NEC making the choice, but this select group of only 10 people, including Keir Starmer, who probably knew which way he was going to go. And do you think that that 8-1 majority is reflected within the parliamentary Labour Party? Because, of course, were Burnham to have been allowed to stand, were he to have won the seat, were he to then have challenged Starmer for the leadership, he would have required 80 of them to back him.

13:19What's his popularity like, do you think, within the party? It's quite hard to tell. There's a reasonable number of MPs who like him. I mean, there's a bigger group who say that he should have been able to stand. Before the decision was made, we had Lucy Powell, obviously. It should be up to Andy and the local members who will select their candidate. Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Sadiq Khan. I think if Andy Burnham wants to be a member of parliament, Andy Burnham should be allowed to be a member of parliament. All saying, you know, whether or not he's actually picked by the local party, he should get the chance to try.

13:58And then after the decision was made, there was quite a lot of noise from Labour MPs. These were more, in general, MPs on the left of the party. And they were the ones who were most obviously vocal about it. But quite a lot of them are quite disgruntled at the stitch up in the fact it looks like a factional thing rather than having, you know, some put it, your best players on the pitch. I mean, one of the big problems that Starmer could face is the trade unions are quite peeved. And I was told yesterday that the big Labour-affiliated unions were certainly thinking on Sunday that they were going to have a chat about what to do next.

14:32I'm not quite sure what they could do next. And given the fact that the candidate's going to be picked very, very soon, I think the decision is basically done.

14:49In terms of Burnham's record in Manchester, I was the North of England editor when he first decided he was going to abandon Westminster. That was 2016. He won the first election in 2017. That was deep in the Corbyn era. it was widely seen, the Meryl T, as a sort of consolation prize for him trying and failing twice to be the leader of the Labour Party. Because he lost out to Ed Miliband, who subsequently turned out to be one of his biggest champions in Parliament, as well as Corbyn. And I've been one of his constituents, I suppose, because I live in Stockport, one of the 10 boroughs of Greater Manchester.

15:21So I've had a front row seat on what he's actually done here. And I would say his record has been pretty decent. Transport was the main thing he focused on for his first two terms. the Bee Network. Bee, of course, is the... Worker Bee is the symbol of Greater Manchester. He's made buses vastly cheaper and more reliable. It's£2 single now. That is cheaper than it was when I moved up 12 years ago. Woo! Yeah. Homelessness. He's made quite big inroads on cutting rough sleeping, although he's failed to eradicate it, which was one of his first pledges. Each month he gives 15 % of his salary to his own charity, which is all to do with combating homelessness.

15:56But do you feel that what he calls kind of Manchesterism could translate to the national stage? Or is it very particular to Greater Manchester, which has this whole hackneyed phrase that we do things differently here? I mean, I don't know, because his national poll ratings are reasonably good. You know, he's whatever is plus 10 or 11 or something, whereas Starmer is currently in the minus 40s, which is getting close to Liz's trust levels, which no one really wants to be. The one point to stress is that being a prime minister at this time is very, very, very different, that there's no money, there's a lot of choices which however you cut them are just shit you know you have to do very difficult things connected to benefits education defense all sorts of stuff so whoever takes over it's going to be difficult so i think the key thing that labour mps are trying to consider in terms of how reform can be seen off is do you have someone with a kind of vision of where they want the country to go this idea of like telling a story yeah and it's interesting because when he was an MP, which was also mainly before my time as a politics journalist, Burnham's record was slightly mixed.

17:01You know, people weren't necessarily sure what he actually stood for, but he's arguably discovered himself as mayor. And he is quite good at telling a story of what he wants to do. So that, I think, as much as the policies is what Labour MPs who support him are looking towards. Yeah. And, you know, I've wandered around Greater Manchester with Andy Burnham many times over the years and it is like being with a celebrity people want selfies they really want him of course not everybody likes him i could reel off a list of his faults the biggest of which i would say is his habit of ducking the tough decisions i'm thinking here particularly of greater manchester's clean air zone which he junked at huge cost when van drivers and the like kicked up a fuss but what he does undoubtedly have which i would argue starmer does not have is a real ease with people He can throw his arm around somebody without looking sleazy or fake, and people feel like he's on their side, I would say.

17:57And if you want to sort of compare and contrast exercise with Starmer versus Burnham, look at how they both dealt with the flag debate this summer. Yeah, you had Starmer kind of wrapping himself in the Union Jack, just going like wildly in one direction, which just didn't feel authentic to many people. I'm a supporter of flags. I mean, you are sitting with one, you've got a Union Jack behind you. I've got one behind me. Are you a supporter of people painting roundabouts and hanging them from lampposts? I'm the leader of the Labour Party who puts the Union Jack on our Labour Party membership. And then you had Burnham kind of saying, I'm not sure about all of this.

18:29I would question people's motives and yeah, put a flag up in your back garden if you want. But why do people have to be sort of provoking others with a flag, which felt to me more authentic? You can obviously display a flag if that's your choice. but I don't know I just I do I wonder about the times we're living in you know it's like people are seeking confrontation and seeking I don't know what they're seeking I think it's a really interesting one because Starmer in you know kind of private away from the cameras is genuinely quite easygoing quite easy to chat to he's got a sense of humor and everyone you know who knows him much much better than me which is lots of people say that in private he's quite different He just almost, well, you could see it either way.

19:12It's either he doesn't trust himself to just let loose with what his instincts are. But the other thing is that when you're, you know, a metro mayor, you have people around you, but you don't have this huge team of people who are telling you everything you should do at every stage. And every utterance is not analysed in detail by the national press, you know, kind of broadcast media and stuff like that. Yeah. So it is different. But, you know, given all that, with all those kind of caveats said, I think many Labour MPs would agree that Andy Burnham has probably developed a better sense of who he is and this ability in a kind of Nigel Farage way to, when he's asked a question, just to say what he thinks.

19:50Yeah. Some people roll their eyes at the man of the people kind of schtick and the king of the north. And he loves being a public figure. I went to him when his famous jacket that he wore during COVID when he was making one of his speeches was being put into the People's History Museum as this historical artifact. I bet he loves that. He loved it. He was there for the moment. But it's just, yeah, I just think in this, for Starmer, who just, yeah, in public at least seems so wooden and distant, Burnham provides quite a strong counterpoint.

20:26Coming up, is this it for Andy Burnham's Prime Ministerial ambitions?

20:41If you take a quick look at the papers on Monday morning, the headlines are telling a similar story. you've got crash and burnham, lame duck Starmer, Labour civil war. How damaging do you think this could be for Starmer as the current Labour leader? It's quite hard to tell. It's damaging now, but it's the sort of thing that this whole story could be over within a few weeks. It could be that the by-election writ is moved and the by-election happens in probably March and Labour win. And, you know, the whole thing is they only need to win by a couple of votes. No one cares how close it is. If a majority of 13 ,400-ish goes down to three, then Labour would take that.

21:23But if they lose, I mean, again, losing a by-election is not the end of the world. Governments do that all the time. But, you know, kind of key to all this is that Starmer's got to turn his government's messages, his government's poll ratings around. And if he can do that, then, you know, Labour MPs will soon forget about what's been going on. But if he can't, then all eyes will be looking North again. And as you said, there was only one vote in support of Burnham on that NEC subcommittee. But do you think that he's found other allies in the wider party, which could kind of deepen the factionalism or prompt a civil war?

22:00Civil war is slightly pushing it, but, you know, except to the extent that all political parties, particularly Labour, are in a permanent state of civil war i think for a lot of labour mps even the ones who are not necessarily you know huge andy burnham fans will agree to the news with a kind of slightly weary sigh because there is an extent to which the people around kirstama you know and everyone knows this like kicking left wingers just as a recreational sport it's just what they do and they can't stop themselves doing it they've done it their entire political lives and you know part of it was as they see it turning around the Labour Party for the Corbyn years.

22:39And it is a fact that no one can say isn't a fact, that to turn around 2019, the crushing defeat to the win of 2024 was an extraordinary thing to do, even if circumstances kind of went with them. But particularly amongst people, not even on the particular left, but the moderate left of the party, they do get slightly sick of it. And they think a lot of the reshuffles are factional. They think the favouritism is factional. They think the selections are factional. And, you know, it's interesting that amongst some of the people who criticised the decision yesterday were some 2024 intake MPs who were, I mean, a lot of them were picked because they were kind of, you know, Keir Starmer fans.

23:17But at the same time, a lot of them realised that they're almost certainly not going to hold their seat again, so they slightly care less. And how do you think Wes Streeting is viewing all of this? It's only a month ago when rumours of his leadership ambitions spread and then were quashed. Do you think that him and maybe other contenders, Angela Rayner, who knows, they might think, all right, well, Burnham's out of the way for a bit. Now's my time. I don't think anyone's going to go for it now, not least because in the Labour Party, it is just, by governance reasons, more difficult than it is for the Conservatives to get rid of a leader.

23:54No one's going to do anything until the elections in May. And even then I'd be slightly surprised because elections in May, you're still three years away from a general election. And that's a lot of time to be responsible for unpopular choices. You know, no one can tell. And a party, which like Labour is at a band early 20s in the polls and the leaders' personal ratings are so bad. That is always an environment in which someone might think, sod it, I need to go for it. If I had to guess, I think there'll be a lot of behind the scenes plotting before one or several people go for it closer towards the election.