Trump turns on Europe: will he pull support for Ukraine? - The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:30That was as if a few hours ago. His people love it. So the question really is how and when and if the EU is finally going to kind of stand up to Trump and say, look, hang on, you know, enough's enough. Has Donald Trump finally turned his back on Europe? And what does that mean for Ukraine? From the Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough. I'm joined by John Henley, Guardian's Europe correspondent based in Paris So Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian president has flown into London today for talks at Downing Street with Prime Minister Keir Starmer but also with French President Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz So this is about a kind of public display of solidarity and unity isn't it?

1:18at a fairly extraordinary moment of US calling against Europe, to say the least. Yes, that's right. I mean, I think we can't, we're not going to expect anything, you know, particularly concrete or new out of this meeting today. It's very much a continuation of ongoing talks and really all about an expression of European solidarity to Vladimir Zelensky, as you say, in the face of what is looking increasingly like You know, really quite a radical shift in US foreign policy towards Russia and particularly towards Europe. It is a really radical shift. So this is a White House document of about 30 pages that was released on Friday.

2:04A new US national security strategy that says Europe is facing civilizational erasure and that the US is keen to establish better and closer relations with Russia. John, how's this gone down in European capitals over the weekend? Like a lead balloon, I think I can say. Yeah, I mean, it's obviously, I mean, I've been talking to a lot of analysts this morning about this. And the consensus is that this really is a profound and radical and fundamental change in US policy towards Europe. I mean, essentially, I think the key takeaway from the document or the most shocking takeaway, besides the fact that it says that the EU is basically, you know, engaging in censorship, it's undermining democracy, it's denying, you know, the true beliefs of its voters and it's overregulating.

3:02I guess the most shocking takeaway is a very clear indication that in support of that kind of ideological worldview, the US is prepared to actively support the kind of far right nationalist parties across Europe. So as you say, it's support for Europe's far right nationalist parties, as you say, and crucial to that is this idea that Europe is becoming, to quote, non-European and that this is the result of mass migration. I mean, that is an extraordinary pivot in White House foreign policy. You know, really, for the first time now, we're seeing a Washington that is, you know, not even kind of threatening to withdraw its support from Europe, but actively seeking to undermine it by supporting these far right parties, these nationalist parties, which which they don't want to completely unravel the EU.

3:59but they definitely want to weaken it to make it less of an umbrella body and something that instead, you know, allows what they call reestablishes national sovereignty. And indeed, it's a strategy that's been really welcomed by the Kremlin, perhaps unsurprisingly, who say this is very much in line with its view. But meanwhile, we've also been hearing from Donald Trump Jr., Trump's son, who there's been some great reporting by our colleague Patrick Wintour about, you know, he does not have an official role in the White House, but has become an influential figure. He says that the US should no longer be the idiot with the checkbook.

4:36So in this context, with European leaders meeting with Zelensky today, this focuses minds, doesn't it, on what Europe's involvement with Ukraine looks like without concrete guarantees from the United States in financial or military terms. That's absolutely true. I mean, it's going to be a real test for the EU, in fact. You know, what makes this so critical is that the EU is really struggling at the moment to come up with an alternative funding plan of its own. There is an absolutely a recognition that Ukraine has to be supported and Kyiv is running out of money. The estimates are that it'll be running out of money by kind of April next year.

5:18There is a plan among the EU member states that the Commission unveiled last week that could provide a stopgap for that and replace at least some of the American funding. But there's by no means unanimity within the EU on whether that plan can work. And that plan is about using frozen billions of euros worth of frozen Russian assets which are being held in Belgium, right, and using those frozen assets to fund the war in Ukraine. Tell me about why that's been complicated and why there's been a failure to reach agreement on that in Brussels. It's meeting very stiff resistance, I mean, mainly from Belgium itself, which obviously is the country that hosts those assets and is very, very worried, not just about the possibility of kind of Russian legal retaliation of it, although it's not really clear how Russia might go about that.

6:13Brussels, in the sense of the Belgian government, is very worried indeed about being basically left on the hook for, you know, hundreds of billions of euros, if that were ever to happen. And reports that the Belgian government has been threatened directly by the Kremlin right, who clearly is fairly rattled by the idea of billions of euros being mobilised. Yes. I mean, the EU says basically that this would not just be about, you know, the concrete business of funding Ukraine's war effort and kind of essential public services as the war, you know, is in its fourth year. But it's very much about sending a really strong signal to Moscow, which basically says we essentially will be, you know, using your money to help fund Ukraine to keep fighting for as long as is necessary for many years to come.

7:05And in other words, you know, Moscow, you will not be able to win this war. But yes, the Belgian prime minister, who is a Flemish nationalist called Bart de Wever, said last week that the Kremlin had made it clear to Belgium and to him personally. He hasn't gone into any detail about what actually he meant by that, that they could be on the hook for all eternity if this plan ever went through. So he's clearly very unhappy about that. And Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, and Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, were in Brussels on Friday evening for a kind of a private dinner with de Weber to try and convince him.

7:48Nothing apparently came out of that. But there is an absolutely crunch European summit in a fortnight's time on December the 18th, at which all of this will have to be decided. I'm just wondering, lastly, John, I mean, you mentioned earlier that this we've long had this sense of criticism from the White House towards Europe and NATO, these these institutions to have it expressed this plainly. Do you think that will give Europe the opportunity to show a bit more muscle as it prepares for those crunch talks in a couple of weeks time? It's difficult. I mean, we've known this. The Vice President J.D.

8:25Vance gave an absolutely brutal speech at the Munich Security Conference in February this year, at which he basically accused Europe of denying democracy and silencing free speech and allowing unchecked illegal immigration and all this kind of thing. And it was a real ideological attack. And what's so special about this document that came out on Friday is that it really codifies what might have been seen as the kind of, you know, aggressive ramblings of a new vice president keen to sort of stir the pot and make his mark. I mean, it codifies it into official national strategy. Now, one of the analysts I spoke to this morning said, you know, don't forget this is still Trump.

9:10You know, Trump probably didn't write this document. He wrote the foreword to it, but he didn't kind of write the document. He's incredibly erratic. Everything could change. But for the time being, what we do know is that this is the, you know, the firm conviction and the strategy, the desired strategy of a significant part of the Trump administration. And how Europe responds will will will really be important up until now. You know, EU leaders have kind of played along with Trump. They've flattered him. They've, you know, and as well with Britain, you know, state visit to the UK, you know, all sorts of EU leaders jetting off to Washington.

9:50trying to be nice to him and, you know, basically, you know, stroke his fur in the right direction. And, you know, but judging by this document, it hasn't worked. And so the question really is how and when and if the EU is finally going to kind of stand up to Trump and say, look, hang on, you know, enough's enough. Well, John, no doubt we'll check in again with you soon. Thank you so much. Pleasure. that's it for today thanks for listening to this episode of the latest the new evening edition of today in focus we'll be dropping into your feeds every weekday evening with what you need to know about the story everyone's talking about in around 10 minutes and please do give us a watch over on youtube today in focus we'll be back with you tomorrow morning and we'll see you tomorrow night this episode was presented by me lucy hoff the senior producer was ryan ramgobin and the lead Producer was Zoe Hedge.

10:46This is The Guardian.