US-Iran ceasefire: has Tehran played Trump? – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:35Trump has damaged diplomatic relations across Europe and the world. And what has he got out of it? Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield. I think it's been a massive strategic failure. This is kind of the definition of madness. This constant repetition of these kind of same strategies that never actually make the Middle East more stable. The US president has abandoned a threat of destruction for Iran as a last minute two week ceasefire is agreed. But does Iran now have the upper hand? And how much of a mess is this for Donald Trump? From The Guardian's today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hough.

1:18Well, I'm joined by Peter Beaumont, who is a senior international reporter at The Guardian. Peter, thanks for joining us again. So I don't know about you, but when I went to bed last night, I was sort of going to bed with this sense of doom, of this threat to obliterate a civilisation of 90 million people from the US president towards Iran. I woke up several times in a kind of cold sweat during the night to check my phone to see what happened. And obviously we've woken up to news of a ceasefire agreed at the 11th hour, two hours before the deadline. What on earth? Yeah, I mean, what on earth? I mean, it kind of like last night felt kind of Cuban missile crisis territory.

1:59Yeah. I think everyone I know woke up at one o 'clock to check their phones. And then when I woke up again at four, it's oh, OK. Yeah. You know, he's taco. He's he's done it again. He's kind of reverse. Trump always chickens out. Trump always chickens out. Exactly. So what happened? Well, I mean, it looks like there's been there was a lot of pressure even sort of running up to his genocidal remarks, which. I guess he thought was some kind of clever negotiating tactic although I suspect it will haunt him for the rest of his political career but yes I mean between the Pakistanis quiet diplomacy from the Chinese sort of a an awful lot of dashing around and sweaty palms I mean I think what I find super surprising about this is that the sort of starting point for this seems to have been the kind of Iranian 10-point plan, which, you know, Trump today is already beginning to go, well, no, not that bit.

2:55No, not the bit about enrichment, which appears in the Farsi version. And so, look, you know, it's quite clear that he was looking for an exit ramp. And it looks like the Iranians were, you know, happy for him to look for an exit ramp. I mean, you know, looking at Axios' reporting this morning, it looks as though Khamenei was involved in this in some way, which seems to kind of dispute the claims that he's in a coma. So yes, I mean, just kind of usual mad chaos with everything to do with Trump. So talk to me about this 10 point plan that the Iranians have put forward, because Donald Trump has said that he's happy for it to be the basis of negotiations moving forward.

3:38But kind of outline where the two US and Iran are and what the fault lines might be. Yes, I mean, one of the things on there is that the Iranians are suggesting this, so there needs to be a recognition of enrichment. Again, that was kind of going back to nuclear enrichment to a certain level that kind of goes back to all the talks around the big nuclear agreement that Trump pulled out of talk about sort of control through the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, it's clear that, you know, whatever has been talked about so far that they don't see eye to eye on kind of the retention of highly enriched uranium.

4:17I mean, Trump has said that, you know, that they want to dig it up and that there is no question of continuing enrichment going on. But, you know, that is all now. These big issues are kind of being, you know, punted down the road for the talk starting in Pakistan if they happen on Friday. Yeah. You know, between Vance and the Iranian foreign minister, Ragchi. I mean, it's all really back of the fag packet stuff. I mean, it all feels super half-baked. But at the end of the day, the big takeaway from it is that there does seem to be a desire on the American Iranian part to kind of like dial back hostilities.

4:54And crucially, I mean, obviously what we've talked about on the programme a lot is the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade that's been imposed there that has caused such chaos in the oil markets and global supply chains. ships have now started passing through but under this terms the iranians are now in control of the strait of humus along with oman right you know in the sense that iran is claiming control of it it's always can claim control of it it's claiming more control of it and that it seems to be suggesting this toll system where um ships pay you know for a right of passage um and it's not that's quite a sizable sum isn't it something like 2 million which is going to be good for Iran's economy yeah I mean they're talking about I mean I just saw one estimate that it'd be something like you know a dollar a barrel on the oil that goes through which is a lot which will you know if it happens we'll have like you know significant you know on top of everything else a significant economic effect you know transporting oil is kind of you know business with quite tight margins you know that's going to get passed on we're going to pay for it i mean and we are paying for it anyway um so so donald trump posted on on truth social this is a big day for world peace but i mean ultimately it feels that he he and the us have been hugely weakened uh internationally trump weakened internationally and domestically by all of this um there was a a post on x from our colleague Patrick Wintour, which was really striking.

6:26He says that the US was urged by Israel to start a war. Trump refused to listen to experts who were cautioning him against doing so. And amidst that, there's been this ruinous regional conflict that has killed thousands of civilians. Add to that the market turmoil, the disruption to oil markets and supply chains that mean millions of people, millions of consumers, the lives and livelihoods of people around the world have been impacted by this. I mean, has Trump accomplished anything through this? Or is this just a massive failure? It's hard to see that he's accomplished anything. I mean, I agree with that.

7:02I think it's been a massive strategic failure. If you look at the way this war has been conducted, I mean, he was warned by, you know, the intelligence community that, you know, Netanyahu's claims that he could somehow sort of bring about regime change in Iran were a fantasy, essentially or bullshit. If you're looking at the United States today from, you know, North Korea or China or Russia, you're going to come to the conclusion that, you know, despite all the violence, despite all the expenditure, a pretty sort of low to medium sized military power with a bit of will has been able to stand up to the biggest military power on the planet.

7:40I mean, it will not have been missed certainly in Moscow the NATO has been terribly terribly damaged by this I mean you know Trump has damaged diplomatic relations across Europe and the world and and what has he got out of it I mean you know despite his claims that there is a more reasonable and less radical regime you know it's it's Ali Khamenei's son it's kind of you know the Islamic Revolutionary guard core they seem to have consolidated it doesn't feel as though this has done anything except damage and yeah and there's a wildness to it and i i kind of think that you know one of the most important things is that no one is going to be looking to to the u.s and particularly to the trump administration and going well there's kind of you know global peace and security and stability Yeah.

8:33And ceasefires are always by definition, almost by definition, very, very fragile. The role of Israel is also very important here, who do say openly that they support the ceasefire, but clearly have their own interests in the region, not least in Lebanon. And certainly there are images of Lebanese people trying to work out whether to return home, continued confusion about their safety there. I'm just wondering what some of the other risks in the next couple of weeks are of this very fragile ceasefire. Well, as we're speaking now, I mean, Israel is launching one of the largest series of airstrikes against Lebanon of the war.

9:16I mean, there's dozens of strikes going on in the Beqar Valley and Beirut at the moment. I mean, Netanyahu said this morning that the ceasefire doesn't bind them to kind of ceasing a conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon. But I mean, you know, there was a theory during the rounds that, you know, the bone that was likely to be thrown Netanyahu in Israel in the event of, you know, Trump backing down was that we would see sort of an acceptance that they continue their campaign in Lebanon. But I mean, it's more of the same. I mean, you know, I covered the 2006 war in Lebanon, you know, I was in Lebanon last year.

9:52I mean, Israel keeps doing the same thing and we get the same results. You know, I mean, whether it's the endless wars against Gaza, I mean, Hamas is never destroyed. Hamas is still in Gaza. Hezbollah is still in Lebanon. The regime is still in Iran. I mean, this is kind of the definition of madness, this constant repetition of these kind of same strategies that never actually make the Middle East more stable. They never make Israel more secure. and you have to assume that in all of this one of the biggest risks is that Israel will be a spoiler that the point of that these air raids that are going on right now as we're speaking is that it will somehow push Iran to kind of do something that then brings the US in because it's quite clear that Israel didn't want and Netanyahu in particular did not want this war to end.

10:42what a complex mess thank you for helping to clarify what we can thank you for your time thank you too that's it for today my huge thanks again to Peter Beaumont the Guardian's senior international reporter you can keep up with his reporting and more rolling coverage of the ceasefire over at theguardian.com thanks for listening to this episode of the latest the new evening edition of Today in Focus Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning the latest will be back tomorrow night This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

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