Wedding guests reportedly killed by US strikes in Iran – The Latest

0:00Will Christou:This is The Guardian.

0:10Will Christou:From U.S. perspective, it's disastrous, right? In terms of strategic wins, there's been none. We're stuck in a situation of no war, no peace. I think what we're going to keep seeing is cycles of escalation and then a lull and then escalation again. This war, Trump said it was going to be over in five weeks and it's been seven months. You know, it not going well is an understatement. From The Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoff. Iranian state media is reporting that at least four people, including a child, have been killed by US strikes at a wedding in Iran amid a flare-up and escalation in strikes and counter-strikes between the US and Iran.

0:52Wilkis, you're our Middle East correspondent. Let's start with this wedding because it's particularly horrifying.

0:59Will Christou:Yeah, it's awful news. Reports are still emerging, but what we know is that last night, there were a number of US strikes on the southern coast of Iran, and at least one of those hit next to or on a house holding a wedding party. And local officials say that four people were killed, including a four-year-old boy, and 68 were wounded. And we're getting pictures showing shrapnel and damage to the house. It's pretty horrific. Yeah, it is truly horrific. And all of this started because the US carried out targeted strikes on Larrak Island, which then sort of set things in motion for the strikes and counter strikes.

1:37Why is Larrak Island strategically significant? It's in the Strait of Hormuz, right?

1:43Will Christou:That's right. Larrak Island is where the Iranians wanted to start imposing tolls on ships going through the Hormuz Island. But if we zoom out, this is more broadly about who gets control the straight up and lose. And that's the real fight we've been seeing flare up and stop and start again over the last couple of months. And since then, you know, there's been a further flare up. Iran has been targeting countries in the Gulf. I mean, I feel like every time we do an episode like this, I ask you or our other wonderful journalists, are we returning to full scale conflict? But in this instance, does it feel particularly febrile?

2:19Will Christou:Yeah, I think it does feel like deja vu, right? I think we're stuck in a situation of no war, no peace. I think what we're going to keep seeing is gradual escalation, cycles of escalation, and then a lull and then escalation again. Now, that doesn't mean that things couldn't escalate, things can always escalate. I mean, last night, we saw the strike on the wedding, that was probably a miscalculation or a mistake. But if there's another one like that, the response could be bigger and things could escalate out of control. But it's very clear we're stuck in a cycle of fighting. Because Iran is carrying out very targeted strikes on Gulf states, aren't they?

2:57Can you tell me about what they're doing and why?

3:00Will Christou:Yeah, I mean, almost immediately after the strikes on Larik Island, we saw the Iranians respond with a wave of strikes on Gulf states, as well as on Jordan. And one thing that's interesting here is that it used to be that they would hit just the Gulf states and occasionally Jordan. But now Jordan seems to be within the first line of attack. And what seems to be happening is, you know, you've got these US bases in the Middle East, and Iran is slowly pushing them further and further away from them with these attacks. So last week, we spoke about this kind of what felt like a change in strategy from the Trump administration from a military campaign to an economic one.

3:37There was this program of sanctions announced very Trumpian fashion, Operation Economic Outcast. There was a feeling that perhaps that could have more success in terms of damaging the Iranian economy, but he seems to have changed tack again. Or is he hoping that this dual track approach will work?

3:58Will Christou:Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's hard to read Trump and his, you know, in the best of times, his Iran policy has been erratic. I think that was very much an example of Trump starting out with a radical position and then just returning to normal US policy, which has been economic maximism and economic pressure on Iran for a long time. That's not new. But I think the reason we're seeing strikes this time around is that it's very much specifically about the Strait of Hormuz. You know, the U.S. wants to stop Iran from opposing a blockade on the strait and get ships out of there. And so, you know, the justification for the strikes on Larrick Island, they were preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

4:36Will Christou:And the U.S. wanted to prevent that. So it seems like this is very much about the straits specifically. Whether or not it signals a broader change back to military tactics, I don't know. I don't know if Trump knows. Yeah, and I think there are kind of growing questions more generally about the US's military capability. I think one of the visual metaphors about how this is going for Trump was the porting in Thailand of the aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, looking extremely rusty and dilapidated. after 270 days at sea. Morale on that ship was apparently at rock bottom. We were told this was going to be a war that would last a few days, a few weeks.

5:17Meanwhile, we've had the Secretary of the Army resign after clashes with the South Stiles Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth. I mean, all of this feels representative of how this is going for Trump.

5:29Will Christou:Yeah, I think it's a good metaphor, right? That rusty ship sort of warily returning to port. It says something. This war, Trump said it was going to be over in five weeks and it's been seven months. It not going well is an understatement. Trump has reportedly expended almost all of the U.S.'s inventory of interceptor missiles. He's been unable to defend the U.S.'s allies in the Gulf and the Middle East. And he's basically shattered the idea of U.S. military might, at least in the region, maybe globally. So things really are not going well. But does Trump know that? I don't know. He shared a video of an AI depiction of Khark Island in Iran blowing up.

6:08Will Christou:So I don't know how tethered to reality this all is. Yeah, the eternal question. So as you say, well, we are nearly seven months into this war. Trump seems to have achieved very, very little militarily or in terms of the US-Israel original aims when they started their strikes on Iran. You are in Lebanon. From your vantage point, where do things stand in terms of the negotiations? Are there some adults in the room, a room, having proper conversations about bringing this to an end? uh no i don't think there are adults in the room uh great people with very big weapons um and there there will be use them i mean from u.s perspective it's disastrous right iran was on the back foot after the october 7th attack and uh hezbollah was weakened but now after the u.s attacked iran in february hezbollah's back the iranian proxies including the houthis in yemen and the shia militias in iraq are stronger than ever uh iran's position in in the middle east has been revived.

7:13Will Christou:The US is on the back column in the region. So it's, you know, in terms of strategic wins, there's been none. And as always, civilians are ones that have to pay for it. You know, thousands dead in the war in Lebanon, thousands dead in Iran as well. But are there still peaks talks ongoing? And is there a commitment, do you think, from senior officials in the White House to that process as a serious one? I think that, you know, there are mediators trying to seriously get both sides to engage at the negotiating table. But it seems that these phases of military escalation are what both sides are relying to sort of increase leverage rather than talking at the peace table.

7:55Will Christou:So I think until we have these cycles of military escalation calming down, we're not going to see real progress at the negotiating table. So we will no doubt speak again very soon. Thank you so much for your time. Thanks for having me. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Will Christie, The Guardian's Middle East correspondent. You can keep up with all his reporting over at theguardian.com. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The Latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was produced by Angus Neal.

8:27The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. The executive producer was Zoe Hitch. And it was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. This is The Guardian.

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