What is Netanyahu’s endgame in Iran war? – The Latest

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0:11Over the last two and a half years, polling has repeatedly showed that the Israelis have been very sceptical of Netanyahu's handling of the war in Gaza. What's interesting with the Iran war is that we see overwhelming support for his handling of the war, for his decision to go to war. that doesn't seem to have translated into political support for returning him to office. So basically Israelis are happy he decided to go to war, but they still don't want him to carry on being prime minister. Four weeks into the Iran war, there is still overwhelming support in Israel for the military action. But for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it's a different story.

0:46His career, legacy and personal freedom may all be on the line. From The Guardian's Today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoff. I'm joined by Emma Graham Harrison, the Guardian's chief Middle East correspondent based in Jerusalem So we want to look at the view from within Israel Obviously the war and Netanyahu's fortunes are closely interlinked But let's start with the public support or otherwise for Israel and the US's war in Iran How popular is the military action at the moment? So there's been a couple of polls now, both from the beginning of the war and a couple of weeks in, showing that support for the war among Jewish Israelis is absolutely overwhelming.

1:35It started at over 90 % and it stayed at over 90%, which makes Israel a real outlier internationally. It's probably the only country in the world where this war has overwhelming popular support. And despite the fact that there are air raids, 15 people have been killed, there is this sense of a threat that that support remains that resolute? Absolutely. I mean, normal life's been very much disrupted, particularly for parents. Kids aren't going to school because of fears they could be a hit on a school, could have catastrophic results. So they're all homeschooling. Lots of places are closed. yet the days are constantly interrupted by air raid sirens so you have to go and take shelter in a you know the nearest shelter most people don't have them in their homes I think we should say that's if you're lucky enough to have a shelter you know there's large areas of Israel particularly areas where there's a big population of Palestinian citizens of Israel where people really have very little access to shelters but despite all that there is yeah there's overwhelming support for this war and I think the reason for that is there's a sense among those who support it that But this is a kind of immediate pain and suffering and risk that people are going through in order to secure some kind of long term security for themselves, for their loved ones, for their families, for their country.

2:56So the messaging of the Israeli government that Iran was posing an imminent security threat seems to have been believed as been taken plausible by much of the Israeli public. I'm interested in the conversations you've been having with people who are opposed or perhaps more sceptical of that messaging from the government. The extraordinary thing is there is almost no opposition to this war inside Israel, at least inside, you know, mainstream Jewish Israeli politics. really people have you know we've got an election coming up in a couple of months and politicians have really set aside their campaigning their disputes on other issues to support this war overwhelmingly where i have heard criticism is when i've been speaking mostly off record to members of the security and intelligence establishment um who've said you know first of all that there's there wasn't really ever a plan for regime change in iran that that was pretty much wishful thinking.

3:56More than one person said to me that ultimately, the real measure of whether this war has been a success without regime change will be whether or not 440 kilograms of enriched uranium remain under Iranian control. If they don't, that'd probably be an escalated risk of a nuclear bomb. And then even if they still support the war, they say they're very concerned about what it could potentially do to the relationship with America, which is really like the foundational diplomatic and security alliance for Israel. And Netanyahu has an, as ever, unreliable ally in Trump, who's been kind of careering all over the shop in terms of looking for a deal, but also threatening more military strikes in the coming days.

4:43There is so, as you say, very, very strong support for the war within Israel. But the situation is very different for Netanyahu's own personal popularity, right? And there are these very crucial elections coming later in the year in the autumn. He's trying to force through a budget to avoid bringing that election forward. He's widely expected to lose that election. So how can we view the action in Iran as part of saving his own political skin as he has done so successfully over so many years now. So the election that's coming up is going to be the first time that Israelis have a chance to vote on past judgment on their leadership since the October 7th attacks, you know, which was the bloodiest day for Israeli civilians in the country's history.

5:32And there's long been a sense that Netanyahu has really tried to avoid personal responsibility for that. We've seen almost everyone else who was in positions of political or military power on that day, take some kind of responsibility, step down. He's managed to stay in power. Over the last two and a half years, polling has repeatedly showed that the Israelis have been very sceptical of Netanyahu's handling of the war in Gaza, that people have often considered he's making decisions for personal political reasons rather than focused on national security. And really, the opinion polls have hovered below the level that he'd need to return to power.

6:06What's interesting with the Iran war is that we see overwhelming support for his handling of the war, for his decision to go to war, confidence, strong levels of confidence that he made this decision for security reasons, not for personal political reasons. Many sceptics in, perhaps one could say this, analytical commentary community or outside Israel have said that he wanted to launch this war because he saw, in the words of one cabinet minister quoted by Haaretz, he saw the road back to office went through Tehran. But despite support for the war and his handling of it, that doesn't, the polls so far show, seem to have translated into political support for returning him to office.

6:55So basically Israelis are happy he decided to go to war, but they still don't want him to carry on being prime minister. So you mentioned Netanyahu's own personal motivations, Emma. I mean, not least the fact that he is on trial for corruption charges for which he could plausibly face jail time. That plays into all of this, doesn't it? Absolutely. I mean, you have this extraordinary scene. You have had for two years where he sort of one minute is making cabinet decisions. The next minute he's testifying in court. And he's obviously very keen to avoid taking the stand without the protections that being prime minister offers him.

7:34So clearly prior to this US-Israeli war on Iran, there was immense pressure on Netanyahu. There is an ICC arrest warrant issued for him. The situation in Gaza remains dire, to put it mildly, with severe aid restrictions still imposed. how helpful is it for Netanyahu to have the world's attention now distracted elsewhere? So yeah I mean for Gaza where you know experts including the UN, international legal scholars, genocide scholars have said what's happening is a genocide. This war is just another level of catastrophe really on top of everything else they've lived through because all the attention that was going into trying to turn Trump's plan for Gaza into some kind of, you know, enduring peace has been completely distracted.

8:28It's been, you know, put elsewhere. Literally, the people who were meant to be heading those negotiations, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, are now sort of focused on Iran. Meanwhile, killing continues in Gaza. Several hundred people have been killed since the so-called ceasefire was brought into place. As you said, there's shortages of all kinds of aid. And it's worth remembering that the Palestinian population of Gaza is in an already overcrowded place, has been forced into just 40 percent of the territory. Yeah, it's this yellow line, which the last time you appeared on the programme, you described as a kill line.

9:06And it is extremely stark when you see the reduced size of that territory compared to Gaza pre-October the 7th. And Emma, of course, it's not just Gaza. It is rapidly increasing settler violence activity in the West Bank too, which has drawn huge condemnation recently. Actually, it's not just settler violence. It's been a surge of violence by Israeli security forces and settlers in the West Bank. They've killed at least 10 Palestinians since this war began, including a family of four who were shot in the head and the face, two parents and their five and seven year old children. And the situation has got so bad, particularly with the settlers who are a focus inside Israel, that we saw an extraordinary call from the former prime minister of Israel, Ehud Elmar, made in The Guardian, demanding ICC intervention.

9:56So calling for the International Criminal Court to intervene to save Palestinians and us Israelis, that was his words, from Jewish terrorism. This is organised, state-sponsored campaign of ethnic cleansing, which has really ramped up with the world distracted by the war in Iran. I mean, Emma, that is barbaric and tragic to hear about what's been happening in the West Bank. But, I mean, we should look at southern Lebanon, where similar tactics seem to be being used or this strategy seems to be being expanded. We've got these strikes on southern Lebanon where Hezbollah are very powerful. There's been hundreds of civilian casualties there.

10:38The Israeli government is now talking about this area of southern Lebanon as potentially being a security zone, to quote, which is language that is very reminiscent of the type of language that's used about the Gaza Strip and about the West Bank. Yeah, and I think it's very disturbing. The idea that Israel believes it has the right to take an area that is someone's home, force them out as a pretext for their security. It's illegal under international law. There's certainly a sense from the Israeli government and military establishment that even if some kind of deal is reached with Tehran, that they want to continue prosecuting this war in Lebanon.

11:18Again, there's this sense that this is being done. The argument is we have to do this to protect ourselves. But, you know, Israeli troops have been in and out of Lebanon since the 80s. And, you know, nobody in northern Israel has security. And I just think it's really striking that if you look at the two borders on which Israel does have some form of security, they're borders where you had negotiated ends to conflicts with Egypt, which at one time was considered as existential a threat to Israel as Iran is today. It didn't have a nuclear program, but it was right on Israel's border and Jordan.

11:52And those negotiated solutions which have held, they've provided a way for Israelis and others to get in and out of the country while airspace is closed. They're just hardly discussed inside Israel. There's almost a sense they're taken for granted. They certainly don't seem to be seen as models that could be followed to seek long term stability. Instead, there's just this focus on endless wars. Yeah, there certainly is, Amir. And it's a terrible situation. Thank you for your reporting and see you on the show soon. Thank you. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Emma Graham Harrison, The Guardian's Chief Middle East Correspondent.

12:27You can keep up with her reporting over at theguardian.com, where you can also keep on top of our live coverage of the war. I do really recommend that you listen to our new series from Guardian Investigates, Off Duty, a seven-part series with reporter Melissa Segura. In 2011, a Chicago police officer was murdered. Police identified four suspects. Three confessed, but the fourth refused to break. He embarked on a 12-year battle to prove his innocence against the system that refused to admit it might be wrong. Subscribe to The Guardian Investigates feed or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus.

13:07Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual on Monday morning. The Latest will be back on Monday night. Have a lovely weekend. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoth. It was produced by Sam Gruer. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. the lead producer was Zoe Hedge.

13:25This is The Guardian.