Why are so many Tories joining Reform?

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:08Today, why Tories are queuing up to join reform.

0:18So I've arrived in Davos and yes... Peter, what is Nigel Farage doing in Davos? It's a very good question. I mean, he's hobnobbing with the rich and famous. This afternoon, Donald Trump will be speaking. This afternoon, President Malay of Argentina will be speaking. I'm going to be on the stage. Of course he is. At the USA House. For years, Farage has railed against the World Economic Forum and its annual summit in the snow-capped Swiss mountains where world leaders, CEOs, tech types and bankers gather for corporate networking. He calls them globalists who want to get rid of the nation state. And he would sometimes delve into territory, which was loosely allied to anti-Semitic conspiracy theories about globalists and bankers wanting to take over the world.

1:02Because we can decide all of this in ski resorts, in Switzerland. Isn't it wonderful? But now he's decided it's a useful place to go. While Farage has made a 180-degree political turn, so have the ambitious Tories who once slagged off his party but are now jostling to join him. Nadine Dorries, the former Conservative minister. Former Conservative Chancellor Nadeem Zahawi has quit the party he served for over six years. has become the first sitting Conservative MP to defect... One of the most senior members of the Tory party did indeed appear alongside Reform UK's leader as their newest recruit.

1:38Reform has always sold the idea that they operate outside the political establishment and that they're different from everything we've seen before. We are in an economic doom loop and no one seems to recognise it. Neither the last Conservative government nor this Labour government. But as the party increasingly becomes a refuge for embittered Tories who will seemingly do anything to get into power. Will its supporters still buy its message? I have said to Nigel, we are very mindful we do not turn into the Tory party 2.0. You have to subscribe to the values. From The Guardian, I'm Narsheen Iqbal.

2:14Today in Focus, doing politics differently, but the same. The new look reform with the same old faces.

2:25Peter Walker, you're a senior political correspondent for The Guardian and very familiar with the Machiavellian twists and turns of Westminster. And so on that note, can you tell me what the lay of the land at the moment is for reform? Talking specifically about the polls, which, you know, you always keep a very close eye on. At the moment, if you could go back in time and tell Nigel Farage when he was launching this next party that at this point he would be well ahead in the polls and having these MRP polls which try and extrapolate how many seats he'd win, suggesting he could win a very, very big majority.

3:01I mean, he would have thought that was beyond his wildest dreams. Look at this. So much light blue. It's really incredible. The North East, the East Midlands and Wales, all Reform UK dominated. Labour. So in many ways, they're doing extraordinarily well. They're now up to seven MPs. They run a series of councils. They're probably going to run a whole load more after the local elections in England in May, which will also see elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, at which they should do pretty well. I mean, certainly in Wales. They could take, you know, councils like Newcastle, which have been Labour forever, because it's partly reform doing well.

3:34It's partly that the Labour supporters just completely disappeared. One of the interesting things that could happen is that all the London councils are going out, which happens once every four years. And there's predictions they could potentially win some London councils in the kind of outer boroughs. So you have all these council elections happening, but do we know anything about the number of candidates that reform are standing? How many people have signed up to reform? They have not announced it yet because we're not close enough yet to have a list of candidates. But the very strong expectation is they'll stand in pretty much every seat.

4:05That's what they did last year. Reform and the previous parties run by Nigel Farage used to have a problem sometimes of getting enough people to stand. But now, you know, they've got 270 ,000 odd members, so they've got no shortage of people willing to go for it. And they've got a lot of former Tories who want to stand. On that subject, last week, Robert Jenrick made the, well, non-surprising or surprising announcement, depending on where you stand, that he was joining reform. I can't, in good conscience, stick with a party that's failed so badly, that isn't sorry. After, of course, he was sacked by Kemi Badenog, who found out his plans beforehand.

4:41Because they were left in a printer? I mean, can you just talk me through, Jenrick, bearing in mind I probably have three things on my head. One that perhaps the most controversial thing he was known for at one point was approving a property deal for Richard Desmond, having sat next to Richard Desmond at a dinner some months earlier. When the council and the inspector had ruled against it. So you admit you showed apparent bias towards a Tory donor? Well, it's not appropriate for me to get into individual planning applications, obviously as housing secretary. It's a matter of record. The second thing I hold in my head is that he insisted on murals of cartoon characters.

5:18He painted over in case children of asylum seekers felt welcome in these centres they're being processed in. When they arrived in the UK was to ensure that we were weeding out those adults who were posing a real risk to children. That's nothing to do with a Mickey Mouse mural though, is it? And then I guess the third is his radical march to further rightward politics. What have I missed? You've missed the big controversy of the Conservative conference in October last year, where he said an area of Birmingham was basically not integrated because he didn't see any white faces. In fact, in the hour and a half that I was filming with the news there, I didn't see another white face.

6:01and that's not the kind of country I want to live in. I want to live in a country. The clichéd narrative is that he came in as a Cameroonian centrist and was journeyed towards the right. And there's plenty of people, particularly in the Conservatives, who see this as quite a cynical move. He saw the lay of the land. But it's interesting, there's people I've talked to who know him quite well who say his views genuinely have changed. But he was always seen as one of the most reform-friendly Conservative MPs. I mean, some of his rhetoric is almost to the right of what Nigel Farage says. but he was also, in conservative terms, quite a big beast.

6:33There's quite a lot to lose. I mean, very ambitious. He was contesting for the leadership, right, for months and months. Yeah, he came second. Reasonably close second. And if Kemi Badenoch fell under a political bus or a literal bus, then he was the person who was next in line. He'd been talking to Nigel Farage, it turned out, for months. I think, given the choice, he'd rather be a conservative leader. But we had this thing where his plans, including a kind of media briefing and a speech on what he was going to say when he did the switch, were leaked seemingly to Kemi Baden-Kuck's office. I mean, you couldn't make it up.

7:05So she, on Thursday last week, she got the chief whip to ring him up. And apparently the chief whip said, look, we have incontroversial proof that you're doing this. And he said, no, no, no, no, you don't know a thing. And she said, no, Robert, we seriously do. And you're going to be sacked. And apparently he just put down the phone because he didn't have an answer, which is, you know, fair enough. I'm not sure what I'd do in this situation. Okay, bye. Exactly. And so Kemi Badenot put out this sudden unannounced video statement saying he'd been sacked as shadow justice secretary. He'd lost the party whip.

7:39He was no longer Tory. When individuals choose to walk away from that effort for personal ambition, it tells you nothing about the Conservative Party and everything you need to know about them. And then there's this kind of slightly awkward moment where, you know, it's like a kind of teenage girl or boy being chucked out of their family and they kind of go to their girlfriend's place and think, can I come and stay now? And he had lots of talks with Nigel Farage and he was eventually announced that afternoon. But the whole thing was quite awkward for him. Sounds it. I mean, and of course, he's not the only one.

8:06We've seen Nadeem Zahawi, who is, what, chancellor for about two minutes under Boris Johnson, had to resign in disgrace over a tax matter, I think. Apparently angling for a peerage and has left in a fit of pique and joined reform. I mean, again, this is another one where you could argue that Baden-Lock's team have done quite well, because when Zahawi went over, they let it be known quite soon in a quiet way that he'd really, really asked for a Conservative peerage. They basically told him, sorry, mate, you're damaged goods because of the tax stuff. So his defection was slightly mild. Under three different prime ministers, he was simultaneously being investigated by tax authorities, which he didn't declare.

8:47I mean, he's a slightly tricky figure because he's very experienced. And I mean, he did quite a lot. I mean, he was a vaccines minister during Covid and was seen as very effective. You know, he's this businessman, he gets stuff done. But he's quite a tarnished figure. But also having ex-MPs join, you know, reform have really got quite a few of them. It's the sitting MPs who are the prize. And let's, I guess, talk about those because an earlier one that has happened is, of course, Danny Kruger. And basically, I feel like I've read a lot of Danny Kruger op-eds in my time to know that his politics have increasingly also shifted rightwards.

9:17And he lends this sort of sheen of respectability in some ways. What do you make of his defection and how has that gone down with his constituency? That was the one which I think hurt Conservative MPs the most because he was seen as a kind of rising star, someone who's a bit of a thinker. And he has got these occasionally slightly fruity, auburnish views on the family and stuff like that. The normative family held together by marriage, by mother and father sticking together for the sake of the children and the sake of their own parents and the sake of themselves. This is the only possible basis for a safe and successful society.

9:56But he engages with people who don't agree with him. He's quite thoughtful. He's like a kind of old fashioned Tory from that point of view. and Tory MPs I talked to were quite surprised and quite peeved and they felt quite let down because they thought this is someone who, you know, whether or not we agree with what his prescription is for the party, is someone who's going to be contributing a lot to this discussion of where the Conservatives are going to go. But then, you know, he didn't really have much of a full role in the Conservatives and his role with reform is preparing them for government.

10:25So he gave this speech about how he's going to transform the civil service even when they win, which is a much bigger job than he had before. Do we know who else is teetering? We don't. There's lots of names who get brought up. Suella Braverman is one. She's slightly semi-detached from the party now. Her husband very publicly joined Reform and is now an enthusiastic tweeter about Reform-minded stuff. She might, but if she did, it would be a little bit like a lower-profile Robert Jenner, kind of, well, she would, wouldn't she? There's some people who are kind of close to Jenner, kind of right of the party, who have been tipped, like Katie Lamb who's now a junior shadow home office minister who's seen as a rising star.

11:04She's from the new intake and has set out some quite right-wing views on immigration. And then there's rumours that Kate Hoey from Labour might be making the move and I wonder if we've stolen her thunder several times over because we keep talking about it and she hasn't done it yet so eventually when she does it might not be the news that she'd hoped. Well we were told that there was going to be a quote major defection from Labour on Tuesday of this week. Tuesday has come and gone and there has been nothing. But it's interesting because even as a Labour MP, she was quite semi-detached from the party.

11:35She was in favour of fox hunting. She kind of did her own thing and was quite popular as a local MP. She was very busy, but she was very Brexitee. That we can actually make a huge, huge benefit of leaving. But if we kind of half leave, half in, half out, we're not going to have that benefit. And she left the party about seven or eight years ago, so she's not Labour. So she sits in the Lords, but she's a non-affiliated peer. But, you know, it would be another reformed peer. So it all just tops up the numbers. And so what's the benefit for reform? What does Farage get out of all of this? He gets a sense of momentum, of reform being the coming party and of the Conservatives being kind of yesterday's people.

12:15Reform people are very, very aware of this, that they cannot just become a party for kind of retreads of Conservative MPs who lost their seats, Which is why it's good for them to get people who are seen as more up and coming like Kruger and Robert Jenwick. The other defectioners had Andrew Rosendale, who's an Essex MP. He's slightly lower key and his defection was slightly strange. Camille Badenow was slightly patronising about him. So there's not many tears shed about him necessarily. I mean, plenty of people are sceptical. But if they do form the next government, they have no experience at all.

12:49They literally will not know what they're doing. how the civil service works, how to pull the levers of power. And people like Nadeem Zahawi, Robert Jenrick and a few others, Danny Kruger to an extent, will know that. I mean, Danny Kruger's worked in Number 10.

13:10Putting aside the next three years, I mean, even just right now, how is Nigel Farage expected to hold this tent together of a rabble, really? You've got these ex-conservative MPs who've moved over. You've got the likes of Danny Kruger, who positions himself as a serious person who knows how to get things done. You've got people like Sarah Potchin saying outwardly racist things about there being too many black people on TV. It drives me mad when I see adverts full of black people, full of Asian people, full of, you know. How is he going to keep this band together and how is he going to keep them all on message?

13:41Two elements to that. The first of which he actually hasn't managed to do it. We had Rupert Lowe who left, who was elected as a reform MP, but now sits as an independent and is actually even more right wing. He's basically openly far right now. You would put illegal immigrants and asylum seekers in, quote, a tented camp with a minimum amount of food. There are islands off the Scottish and English coasts where they can be detained. Put them there and let the midges do the rest. Do you mean that? I did say that. Which islands? I stand by my opinion. And he fell out because of some convoluted disagreement.

14:16But the basis of it is basically he's got a big ego. Farage has got a big ego. And they couldn't both be in the same party. Right. And then we had James Murdoch, who also left over investigations over business dealings during COVID. But he'd also fallen out with part of the party. So Farage has got a habit of falling out with people. It is going to be interesting when you have big egos, particularly like Robert Jenrick. His ambition is very obvious. When you say I put my personal ambitions aside, we all think that's absurd. Well, I think most people, I want people to be ambitious. Most people in the country are ambitious.

14:48And so I'm not ashamed to say, look, I want to be on a team. And the interesting thing is that Nigel Farage has only ever run parties as autocratic institutions where he has everything to say, which has been fine when you have just MEPs or one MP or two MPs or even seven. But when it gets bigger than that, that's potentially going to be tricky. And, you know, I think they realise that. As a character himself, he hasn't had the best time, shall we say. I mean, The Guardian's been running this investigation into allegations of racism, claims that he was just awful to people in his school days. Can you tell me if it's done him any damage politically?

15:26I mean, it's important to stress that he denies a lot of the claims, though he's denied it in various ways. He's at some points that they're simply not true. Aren't we up to 38 accounts of this? Yeah, and at other times he's said people have misremembered. Including teachers who've written letters at the time. The evidence is quite strong. It's interesting because he's definitely been rattled by this. I've asked questions about it as more and more people have come forward. And he's gone from being, no, this isn't true, to actually being quite rude. I mean, he's not done it to me, but to other people's asses.

15:57He's gone, like, boring. And he's been quite abrasive. And you can tell he's quite peeved about it. I think possibly the most damaging thing, I think anyone who went to school understands what a school bully is like. There's quite a visceral feeling of looking at them and going, ooh. And I think almost weirdly, as much as the allegations of being anti-Semitic and racist, the idea of this arrogant teenager swanning around trying to make people feel small, people recognise that. Coming up. Are reform risking their rebel status?

16:43Peter, is there a risk that reform will lose their sort of rebel outsider status and just become Tories who think they're a bit edgy? You know, on Sunday, we had Nigel Farage wanting to reassure supporters by writing the Telegraph and saying that reform is not a rescue charity for every panicky MP and that any potential defectors would have to be prepared to admit publicly that the previous Conservative government broke the country. He's also set this May deadline. What does it tell us about how reform perceive all of this? I think it shows that they're aware of the dangers because they've had quite a lot of ex-MPs who lost their seats and weren't really doing that much, have joined them.

17:26And that looks quite opportunistic. and there is a worry if you get to the election and there's loads and loads more of them if like a quarter of the people there standing are former Tories then Keir Star and his ministers can go look at them they're just another version you know not only they're Tories but they're Tories who failed I think reform are very aware of this Zia Yusuf who's their former chair who's now their head of policy is seen as the one who's very most anti-Tory when everyone else in the party tweeted welcome to general he basically said nothing he was completely silent Well, him and Jenrick had had some Twitter beef, as the kids call it, in the past.

18:02Let's grow up people. They all realise that, that they need the experience, particularly if they're going to be forming a government. And people who've been cabinet ministers, that's helpful. But you don't just want to look like not only Tory 2.0, but the ones who got kicked out last time. But do you think all of this is happening, including his own success, because the Tory party itself seems to have imploded and isn't doing so well? Yes, there is definitely a kind of vacancy on the right, because Kenny Badenock had quite a rocky start as Conservative leader. She didn't announce policies for a while.

18:31She can be slightly abrasive. Their polling ratings have gradually been getting better, but it's all in context. This is to about 20 % from about 16 % or 17%. And 20 % poll ratings would be enough in almost any other era to get a Tory leader just booted out the door immediately. But the interesting thing is her MPs are quite cheery now. They thought her conference speech in autumn was good. they thought her response to Rachel Reeves' budget, they said that went down really well. At the last budget, she said she was proud to be the country's first ever female chancellor. After this budget, she will go down as the country's worst ever chancellor.

19:09And it's interesting, I was chatting to a conservative constituency party chair, and they were saying that after the generic stuff, they had a mass of people saying, I want to rejoin, I want to fight. Oh, right, so she's enjoyed something of a Bader Knock bounce. There is, yes, a cheminaissance. Pick your own terms. And, you know, it's all relative. Have our own MPs rallied around her? Has there been a bit of a united front among the Tories? Yes, and that's the key thing, that as the Tories found out to their cost the last election, voters like a united party, and they're starting to feel like a more united party.

19:41And three and a half years is a long way to go. So, you know, I'm not saying she's going to do it. There's a lot of hurdles in the way. But things are looking better for her than they were even three months ago. Is there a world in which she could spin this as making the Conservative Party stronger? These defections, I mean, running off to reform. Totally, totally. You know, she's had this nice line about Nigel Farage doing her spring cleaning. Right. A lot of her MPs were basically saying, you know, in an ideal world, Generate would have been sacked a year ago because he was being openly disloyal.

20:10But the way she got rid of him, she handled it pretty well. I think the key thing is going to be whether any other people follow Robert Generate out of the door. If there's another two, three, four, five, let alone 10 MPs who do it, then it's really going to look difficult. What about the prospect of a supermerger? What is the likelihood that there would be an electoral pact to join forces at the next election? I think even a couple of weeks ago, that was unlikely but possible. And the scenario would most likely have been, Kemi Badenok eventually gets kicked out because they don't do very well maybe in the May elections or the polling in a year's time is still awful.

20:45and Robert Jenrick took over and he would be much more likely to at least try and come up with some kind of a pact. I think a formal merger would be difficult because that would be like a hostile takeover and conservatives are quite proud. You know, they always say we're the most successful political party in the world and that would be, you know, quite a difficult thing. But now every conservative MP I speak to say that defection has crystallized things. They're now in a fight to the death and they're quite relishing it. They're quite up for it. They now know where they are and I think they quite like that.

21:17Okay. And what is the view from Labour? How are they looking at all of this from their distance? I mean, during the generic stuff, Labour were doing the classic political thing of just staying quiet and letting their enemies say stupid things. Popcorn. I mean, people in Labour are obviously incredibly aware of how much reform are a threat to them and potentially an existential threat to Keir Starmer's position as PM in that if reform win loads and loads and loads of council seats and do particularly well in Wales and Labour are effectively wiped out, then the agitations against Keir Starmer is going to get much, much more serious.