Why is Israel attacking Lebanon? – The Latest

0:00Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

0:30Will Christou:innovation. Scotland. For the head, heart and the spirit. Discover more at theguardian.com forward slash brand Scotland. This message was paid for by Brand Scotland.

0:45Will Christou:Instantly I knew that we were at war again. And people were just displaced in the streets, lying there, some with thin mattresses, some with nothing. Hezbollah joining in is just one more actor that's joining in and one more step towards a fully regional war. It feels very like World War I, Bismarckian system of alliances, right? The danger with that is you send a missile to the wrong place at the wrong time, cross a red line, didn't know existed. Things get bad very quickly.

1:10Nosheen Iqbal:The war on Iran spreads across the Middle East as Israel sends ground troops into the south of Lebanon. From The Guardians today in Focus, this is The Latest with me, Noshin Iqbal. Joining me today is Will Christou, our reporter based in Beirut. Will, thank you so much for joining us today. Now, you're speaking to us from Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, which has been under serious bombardment from Israeli military strikes since the early hours of Monday morning. Now, Israel has sent ground troops into southern Lebanon, but I wonder if you could just give me a sense of what it's like where you are right now, because you can quite literally hear the strikes, right?

1:48Will Christou:Yeah, the first indication that the war had started was a series of explosions at like 3 a.m. I popped out of bed and instantly I knew that we were at war again. And everyone in Beirut remembered those sounds from two years ago. And very quickly, you know, a sort of a warlike atmosphere sort of took over the country and the city. Streets were full of traffic and I went to do some reporting and people were just, you know, displaced in the streets, lying there, some on thin mattresses, some with nothing. And these are scenes that we've seen before. You know, we talked about 18 months ago back when the first Hezbollah-Israel war happened.

2:25Will Christou:And it was exactly the same. And we've just returned back to the same thing. And so I think for a lot of people here in Lebanon, they're very weary of what's happening and they're tired.

2:34Nosheen Iqbal:And in terms of the geography of the city, could you explain a bit about where the strikes are taking place and where people are evacuating to or trying to take shelter?

2:44Will Christou:So the strikes that I described being woken up by were in Dahye, the southern suburbs of Beirut, Hezbollah stronghold. And since the strikes on Monday night, Israel has been hitting periodically throughout the day. About an hour ago, I heard a couple more strikes and we saw smoke coming over the skyline of the city. So most people in Beirut have fled from that area to safer areas, downtown to shelters that have been opened up. And then you also have the south of the country and the Baqal Valley. And Israel has been widely hitting there, hitting over 100 targets over the last 24 hours. And people have been fleeing northwards, whether that's to Beirut or cities even more northwards like Tripoli.

3:21Nosheen Iqbal:And as you said, it's only been 18 months since that last conflict erupted. And I wonder what the mood is amongst civilians, because, you know, last time you reported there was a real sense of solidarity, that there were queues coming out of blood banks. But how does it feel for people now?

3:36Will Christou:Yeah, I think last time, you know, it happened with the boom. Israel just started bombing southern Lebanon and hitting the southern suburbs of Beirut. People were shocked. Nothing like that had happened before. And like you said, there was a real sense of solidarity, or at least a feeling that we're in this together, because it felt disproportionate. It felt like it came out of nowhere. This time around, this round of conflict was started by Hezbollah firing weapons at Israel. And this was in support of Iran. So now there's not that feeling of solidarity. And to many Lebanese, even people within the power base of Hezbollah, this was something that wasn't needed.

4:10Will Christou:Hezbollah didn't have to enter the war. They didn't have to drag Lebanon into a war with Israel and cause all this destruction. And many people, particularly within Hezbollah's base, are tired of all this happening.

4:23Nosheen Iqbal:And Will, could you just explain Hezbollah in this context and their relationship with Iran, why they did strike against Israel in those early strikes in retaliation for the killing of the Ayatollah? And also, I guess, their relationship with the Lebanese people and the Lebanese government.

4:38Will Christou:Yeah, so Hezbollah is a group that came out of the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon in the 80s. They were a so-called resistance group. They were trained by Iran, but their primary goal was to evict Israel from southern Lebanon. 2000, that happened. Israel left. And since then, they've dominated Lebanese politics for the last 20 years or so. Now, what people are saying, what analysts are saying, that since the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and since the last war, which saw Hezbollah really just demolished, what they're saying is that Iran has taken a much stronger hold of the group. They've helped reconstruct it.

5:10Will Christou:They've helped reconsolidate power. And so a lot of the decision-making is less in the hands of the leadership here in Lebanon and more of the leadership in Iran. And so people in Lebanon are questioning, even those who support Hezbollah, whether or not this decision to enter the war was one that was in interest of the Lebanese people or one that was on behalf of their patron, Iran.

5:31Nosheen Iqbal:And of course, the group has been in deep conflict with Israel. I mean, this isn't the first time we've seen fighting break out between the two. I mean, most people remember the horrific Pager incidents of 2024. Ground troops have now, from Israel, entered in southern Lebanon. How do you think Hezbollah will respond? And what is the goal here?

5:50Will Christou:Yeah, so I think what Israel has done for the last 24 hours is they've issued evacuation orders for vast swaths of southern Lebanon. This morning, they issued evacuation order for another 80 towns. Yesterday, it was 50 towns and some more after that. The effect of that is that they've essentially emptied out most of south Lebanon. And then they moved troops onto the border and said that they would advance further into the territory. So what they've created is an empty, let's say, swath of land near the border. Now, how Hezbollah is going to respond, we have to see. Up until now, they've just been launching rockets at Israel.

6:22Will Christou:But they, this morning, declared what they called an open war with Israel. Does that mean they're going to go and they're going to fight, you know, guns in hand with Israeli soldiers in the south? I don't know. And another thing to say is that this group, you know, it's not the group it used to be. It used to be bigger than most European militaries, strongest non-state militia in the world. But since the war two years ago, it's been pounded every day by Israel. So what can it actually do? I don't know.

6:46Nosheen Iqbal:That actually leads to my next question in terms of Hezbollah's resource and its capability. I mean, how big is the group? And given the absolute decimation of Iran's leadership, how will it fight this war? And how long do you think it can go on for?

7:00Will Christou:It's a good question. You know, Iran was its main sponsor. It used to receive weapons through Syria. But after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, it's not been receiving those weapons. It's not been receiving that money. And so it's a reduced, you know, it's just kind of a shadow of what it used to be. Nonetheless, it entered this war. And so the question is, you know, what can it actually do to help Iran, if anything? You know, the last three rocket volleys it sent to Israel were intercepted, didn't do any damage. But, you know, something that someone said to me the other day, I think that that's applicable is in the last war, everyone overestimated Hezbollah.

7:31Will Christou:They thought it was much stronger than it was. This time, people are underestimating Hezbollah. It might be a shadow of what it used to be, but it still has the capacity to do strong damage.

7:40Nosheen Iqbal:And in the meantime, Israel has declared that it will keep going until the threat from Hezbollah has been extinguished. Will, if that's the case, how long could this war go on? And is there anything the Lebanese government can do to save its people?

7:56Will Christou:I think that's what everyone's wondering. How long is this going to last? You know, Israel's definition of Hezbollah being defeated might be quite a tough one. You know, they might want to get rid of every last soldier, get rid of every last arm. so this could go on for quite a while. I mean, we've seen Israel bomb Hezbollah almost every day for the last 18 months. So for them, it's not a huge cost to continue. Now, the Lebanese state that they're trying to intervene, they want to stop Lebanon from being pulled into a war, but it seems like it's not up to them. The army so far has not been able to stop Hezbollah from launching missiles at Israel, and Israel now seems determined to finish the job that they didn't finish two years ago.

8:38Nosheen Iqbal:And Will, finally, where does this leave the broader regional conflict? I mean, if Israel is fighting this war on multiple fronts, where does it leave the rest of the region?

8:48Will Christou:Yeah, I think what's been pretty crazy to watch is just how quickly this war that was supposed to be just between Washington, Tehran, Tel Aviv and Tehran, just turned into a regional war overnight. You know, within hours, we had Iran hitting the Gulf. And now we have nine countries pulled into this war. Hezbollah joining in is just one more actor that's joining in. and one more sort of step towards a fully regional war. It feels very like World War I, Bismarckian system of alliances, right? It seems like everyone's on someone else's side and one thing leads to another. The danger with that is that what seems like a straightforward conflict at first gets very complicated very quick.

9:25Will Christou:You know, you send a missile to the wrong place at the wrong time, across the red line, didn't know existed. Things get bad very quickly. So right now, you know, there is bombing in Lebanon, for example. There's bombing across the region. but damage could be much, much worse.

9:40Nosheen Iqbal:Well, do stay safe. Thank you. We'll speak to you soon. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Will Christou. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus, we'll be back with you as usual tomorrow morning and we'll be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Nashi Nikbal. The producers were Bryony Moore and Nicola Alexandru. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin and the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

10:11Nosheen Iqbal:This is The Guardian.

10:21Will Christou:Scotland has natural beauty in abundance, but beyond the stunning landscapes, it's a fertile ground to build, grow and succeed, filled with people who are ready to push boundaries in the pursuit of breakthrough ideas. That's why today, Scotland is a dynamic hub of opportunity across growth sectors from clean energy and life sciences to digital technology and space innovation Scotland for the head, heart and the spirit discover more at theguardian.com forward slash brand Scotland this message was paid for by Brand Scotland