Will Trump put boots on the ground in Iran? – The Latest

0:00This is The Guardian.

0:10This is becoming a war where it's a clash of American military power against Iranian economic power. We're doing extremely well in that negotiation, but you never know with Iran because we negotiate with them and then we always have to blow them up. You cannot predict what this man does, we've learned that. So it's equally possible that he will step up militarily, try and take Kargai Island, or is using that purely as leverage to get a kind of climb down. There's yet more distorted reality from President Trump, who is threatening to obliterate Iran's infrastructure, whilst also claiming he's in talks with a new reasonable regime about ending the war.

0:51From the Guardians today in Focus, this is the latest with me, Lucy Hoth. I'm joined by Jonathan Friedland, Guardian columnist and host of our sister podcast, Politics Weekly America. It's lovely to have you back with us, Jonny. Thanks for dialling in. So it's obviously been a very busy weekend after a very busy few weeks. There's a lot to get through in terms of updates on what's played out over the weekend. But let's start with these thousands of US military personnel who've arrived in the Middle East. What we want to talk about what they will be deployed to do there, but also this reported suggestion that there are US preparations for a ground invasion.

1:33That is reported, we should say, not confirmed at this time. Yeah, I mean, it's very hard, obviously, to work out what is talk, what is smoke and mirrors, what are real plans. And, of course, some of the messaging is designed to have an impact on the other track which is going on here, which is some parallel universe, perhaps, but a parallel track of negotiations. So some of it is designed to act as pressure. On its own, the number of reported personnel in the low thousands would not be enough to invade the entire country of Iran. Remember just how big this place is. It's seven times the size of Britain.

2:11It's France, Spain and Germany combined. It's two and a half times the size of Texas. This is a huge terrain, 90 million people. That's just obviously not going to happen. Instead, I think there's focus on this potential mooted operation for Karg Island, this distribution hub for Iranian oil. Yes, which we'll come to. In terms of these talks, which you mentioned, Trump says the US and Iran have been meeting directly and indirectly, and that Iran's new leaders have been very reasonable Iran's version of those conversations is very different. What can we understand about what's going on there in terms of these talks, negotiations?

2:53I think there is clearly some kind of back channel. It does seem to be running through particularly Pakistan. It's offered itself as the key broker. Steve Whitcoff, golfing buddy and real estate partner, colleague of the president, is acting as the main US envoy. It appears he has an opposite number in the Pakistani military that he's been talking to. There is also this sort of group effort by Turkey, Egypt, and some of the Gulf states to see if they can cohere a group of people who could perhaps, a consortium, that could perhaps be a face-saving measure for both sides if, and it's a big if, both sides decide they want to climb down.

3:40It could be that they become sort of co-stewards of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing shipping to go through. Yeah, but a lot of hurdles to get through to get to that point, one imagines, and not an easy process. Trump, in an interview with the Financial Times, says, I quote, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran. And part of that would be an attempt to seize Karg Island, which is this small island off the coast of Iran that is a major oil terminal. How plausible is that? And how would Iran likely respond to that? It would be a huge escalation to seize and Karg Island. First of all, just because of how important it is to the Iranians.

4:26This is becoming a war where it's a clash of American military power against Iranian economic power. So the United States has this huge arsenal. Iran has this chokehold on the world economy through the Strait of Hormuz. But for itself, Kargala, 90 % of its own oil exports run through that hub. And therefore, the current hold it has, which is economic, especially because Donald Trump lifted or eased sanctions. So handing them billions of dollars in revenue because they suddenly are able to sell their own oil. He would be essentially cutting that off if he were to take Cargillard. I think most people think, look, if it was a matter of just that operation, the US military is very mighty, very skilled.

5:11They probably would take it. Then it becomes a question of how do you hold it against Iranian counter pressure? The Iranians would respond, yeah, partly militarily. They would obviously not leave American personnel unhindered. But they would respond economically by hitting more and more of those energy sites, infrastructure, in other Gulf neighbours. They would obviously try and hit Israel's energy infrastructure. And they would see if they could escalate the economic power they already have and make it that much greater. So they essentially grind the world economy to a halt. Yeah, and we are already, of course, seeing the huge economic implications of what's been going on on the global economy, on markets, on the oil market.

5:57In terms of Iran's military response, the Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen have launched a barrage of strikes in Israel. There are fears of further disruption, therefore, to global supply chains, because the Houthis, we understand, have the military capacity to cause some damage in the Red Sea to shipping, which, again, would just compound the issues of supply of the global economy that we're already experiencing. That's right, because already the Strait of Hormuz is massive, 20 % of the world's oil goes through there. This would then be another choke point because so much leaves that region out through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

6:41So suddenly we're going to be having to learn about two of these choke points. and the Luthis, if they choose to escalate from just hitting Israel, which is all they're doing at the moment, which is essentially a reminder to decision makers around the world, we're here, we still have firepower. If they can hit Israel, then they can also start hitting ships going through that strait. It's happened before the Americans bombed them last time it happened. It happened in the aftermath of October 7, 2023. There was eventually a deal broken in late 2025, which has broadly held um but this is a reminder from them we could come in here and then we don't have iran and its allies don't just have one strangle point choke point we have two uh and that would i think send the oil price through the roof and it would it would send you know shivers through the global economy so this is escalating it's widening and of course it's going to lead to yet more anxiety.

7:39Yeah, you get the sense, as you say, of these new flashpoints popping up all the time, these proxy wars surrounding this conflict, not least Israel continuing its military assault on southern Lebanon to weaken Hezbollah, journalists tragically killed in southern Lebanon over the weekend, and an enormous pain being inflicted on Lebanese people. yeah it's a million people are uh out of their homes displaced that amounts to about a fifth of the lebanese population uh there israel talking about pushing right into southern lebanon perhaps up to the latani river and holding it as a buffer zone essentially an invasion of that area and doing it by the way in response to hezbollah rocket fire on the north of israel which has sort of emptied out, people displaced from their homes, in effect, there too.

8:32So this is spreading pain and misery across the region. In this case, there's not an economic ripple effect, particularly around the world, but it's felt in the hardship of ordinary people and their lives as this war escalates. A reminder that Benjamin Netanyahu told Israeli voters, Israeli public, that he had obliterated the threat from Hezbollah in the previous two years, and suddenly they're back, They've got firepower. And same story with the Houthis. All over this region, there are those who were, you know, people were led to believe had been beaten militarily, who are coming back and showing they still retain firepower.

9:09And of course, Trump, who promised the end of endless wars and that the US would pull back from this type of involvement in conflict. Clearly, you know, we've spoken about this before. We are so far from that. And I just, I mean, we're all just hoping, aren't we, for some kind of off ramp, some sense of clarity about whether these talks are legitimate, whether Trump is really looking to de-escalate or whether he will go further with further military interventions. So what do you think, Johnny? What can we expect this week? I mean, both scenarios are plausible. You cannot predict what this man does.

9:48We've learned that. So it's equally possible that he will step up militarily, try and take Harg Island, as we've discussed, or that he is using that purely as leverage to get a kind of climb down. It's very clear that I think the signaling is very clear that he wants, would love this to be over, but he can't be, it can't be a humiliating end. In a way, what he would love to do is turn the clock back to February the 27th of this year, where the Iranians are holding on to their arsenal, but they're allowing ships through the Strait of Formus. If he could get that deal, he would take it. In other words, exactly what he had before he started this whole adventure.

10:27He would take it. But the question is, would the Iranians, is there anything that would persuade the Iranians to give up what is their Trump card, if you'll pardon the pun, which is this economic control? That's the thing Trump needs. He needs to have shipping going back through that straight flow of traffic. That's the one thing the Iranians will not give up because it's their one big card. So it's very, very hard to see how his minimum and their maximum meet at the moment because they are far apart, I think. Johnny, very far apart indeed. Thank you so much for your time and for your expertise.

11:05Thank you, Lucy. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Jonathan Friedland. You can keep up with his columns over at theguardian.com and do listen to his brilliant podcast, Politics Weekly America. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest, the new evening edition of Today in Focus. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds tomorrow morning as usual. The latest will be back tomorrow night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Bryony Moore. The senior producer was Ryan Ramgobin. And the lead producer was Zoe Hitch.

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