Thursday, October 15, 2026

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1:03At Ameriprise Financial, we believe doing the right thing is always the right choice, and it has been for over 130 years. No wonder Ameriprise is the highest-ranked diversified financial services company on Time's 2026 America's Most Iconic Companies list. Ameriprise Financial, advice worth talking about. Visit ameriprise.com slash advice for information and disclosures. Securities offered by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC. Breaking news as we come on the air. The shooting at an elementary school in Oregon. Multiple students injured. A gunman opening fire in Bend, Oregon.

1:39In the middle of the day, children injured rushed to the hospital. The gunman may have been taken out by a civilian. Parents waiting for their children to get off buses. Evacuating students from the school. The details coming into our newsroom right now. Also breaking dangerous flash flooding. Triggering urgent rescues in Texas. One first responder carrying a man on his back. While in Colorado, rare October thundersnow and the evacuations tonight in California as wildfires flare up. This just in, the terrifying images after an SUV slams into a Florida daycare with children inside. Multiple victims rush to the hospital.

2:18The new security threat just weeks ahead of the midterms. Suspicious mail with suspicious substances inside sent to top lawmakers. The mom of Breaking Bad actor R.J. Mitty speaking exclusively to NBC News just days after his death, opening up about the devastating moment she found her son and the outpouring of support coming in from his former castmates. The new White House press secretary under fire. She calls herself a lawyer, but our new reporting, she never passed the bar. Plus, America's most famous hotel shutting its doors. why the Plaza Hotel won't be accepting guests for the next four years and why it's sending some brides-to-be into a frenzy.

2:59And the warnings from teachers and even students about Google AI in the classroom, why kids can't help but use it even as test scores plummet. Top Story starts right now.

3:15Hey, good evening. We have breaking news as we come on the air tonight, that shooting at an elementary school in Oregon, Multiple students injured. A gunman has been opening fire in Bend, Oregon in the middle of the school day. Children were injured. They were rushed to the hospital, and the gunman may have been taken out by a civilian. Parents are waiting for their children to get off buses, evacuating students from the school, and the details are still coming into our newsroom right now. We're going to be following this throughout the day because the story here has been developed, and we've just gotten some breaking news in that there are multiple people dead.

3:46Liz Kreutz has been following this one for us. She joins us now with the latest developments. Liz, do we know anything more about what happened here? And again, that troubling news has just come into our newsroom about multiple people now dead. Yeah, we continue to get new information here. This is all unfolding, as you know, Tom. And so our team has just heard from four senior law enforcement sources that have been briefed on the investigation that there are multiple people deceased, including the gunmen. We do not know the identities of these people or the ages of those people. We do know from authorities that there are multiple victims, including children.

4:18That could also be people who were injured. We know people have been taken to the hospital. This is all very active right now. And as we speak, parents are being told to go to a local church to reunite with their children. Tonight, police say a gunman opened fire at this elementary school in Bend, Oregon. Multiple victims rushed to the hospital, including children.

4:42Police say the first call came in at 12.59 p.m. with reports of a shot fired into a car. We will need additional ambulances. We don't have a firm patient count yet. Law enforcement got to the scene within three minutes. At 1.02, as I said, our officers were on the scene and moments later the shooter had been shot and killed. We do not know, we don't have confirmation yet who shot the suspect. It may have been a bystander. At this time, we have multiple victims. Then police say at least two people were transported to a local hospital. We do not know their status. The victims include children. And at this point, we have, like I said, hundreds of law enforcement from every agency in Central Oregon.

5:33Images from outside the school show the heavy police presence and students huddling on the ground. This is a very, very, very big police presence. It's a very serious situation. Authorities say first responders are going room by room evacuating students and staff, bringing them by buses to this reunification center at a nearby church. It's devastating and our hearts go out to this community and we ask our community to really work together and come together at this time. All right, Liz joins us now live. Liz, we know the suspect is deceased in this awful case. Do we know anything about who they are or what the motive was?

6:09Those are all the big questions tonight, Tom, and authorities have not revealed any of those details at this time. They have been giving updates throughout the night, so hopefully we might get some of that information soon. But we don't know anything about who this person is, their connection to the school, and we also don't know anything about this brave person that seems to have intervened in the shooting. Authorities say that person, maybe a bystander, shot the gunman. All of this is part of the investigation, and, Tom, authorities say tonight the local FBI from Portland is on the scene there assisting in the investigation, Tom.

6:42OK, Liz, I want to bring in NBC's national law enforcement and intelligence correspondent Tom Winter, who's here on set. So, Tom, what are you hearing from your sources? Yeah, Tom, so what we know so far is it's multiple people dead besides the gunman, and we know that there have also been some other individuals have been injured, and that includes THEM. CHILDREN. WHAT WE DON'T YET KNOW ARE THE SPECIFIC AGES. ONE OF THE REASONS WE ARE BEING SO CAUTIOUS IS TO BRING US BACK TO THE HORRIBLE SHOOTING AT NEWTOWN. THE SHOOTER THERE, ADAM LANZA, ACTUALLY HAD HIS BROTHER'S I.D. ON HIM. SO POLICE INITIALLY THOUGHT IT WAS PERHAPS AN ADULT, PERHAPS THOUGHT IT WAS A DIFFERENT NAME.

7:17WE HAVE SEEN THAT HAPPEN IN MULTIPLE SHOOTINGS IN THE PAST. WE WANT TO BE A LITTLE CAUTIOUS ON THE AGES AND A LITTLE CAUTIOUS ON WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT HERE IN TERMS OF THE SCOPE OF THIS. EITHER WAY, IT'S A TRAGEDY. LOOK, THREE-MINUTE RESPONSE TIME IS AN INCREDIBLE RESPONSE TIME. POLICE HAVE INDICATED THAT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A BYSTANDER, SOMEBODY ARMED IN THE COMMUNITY, PRESUMABLY LEGALLY, PERHAPS SHOT THIS SUSPECT. BUT THREE MINUTES IS ALSO A LONG TIME WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT SOMEBODY PULLING THE TRIGGER OF A GUN. And so, unfortunately, a lot of damage can be done in that timetable. And I think that's the reason why we're looking at several fatalities.

7:51Had that response time been longer, that bystander not have been there, obviously, this could have been a whole lot worse. And it's still pretty bad in and of itself. You're asking a question of motive. You know, in the past, Tom, I would have come on here tonight and told you, you know, the suspect is likely a male and all sorts of information based on the historicals. But what we've seen over the past couple of months, the last year and a half or so, is really a widening out of the demographics of potential school shooters to include young girls. That's a new phenomenon, and that's based a lot on extremist material that we see that's specifically targeting kids online.

8:30So that's something that we're going to watch for here. Do we have any reason to believe that's the case here? We don't have any specific information on motives so far, other than that's what we have seen over the past 18 months and something we've been tracking closely. All right, Tom, thank you for that. We appreciate it. I want to bring in NBC News law enforcement analyst Jim Cavanaugh. He's a retired ATF special agent in charge. Jim, there's a lot we don't know, right, even at this hour. I mean, there's just not a lot we know. From what you have heard, what you heard Tom say, is there anything we could sort of glean from that information, any type of pattern you can put together, or we're just going to have to wait and see what investigators are able to release?

9:02Well, there are some things, Tom. I think this reporting is so accurate and we can look at just the facts. The eyewitness that was on NBC just in the last program reported hearing six shots while she was walking her dog nearby the school. Six shots. Three, a pause, and three more. Those might have been shots outside. We know from the police that a motorist was shot by the assailant before they went into the school. so we don't know the condition of the motorist. Could it be a person was killed maybe or wounded or even missed? And like Tom said, a security guard could have killed the person. The declaration from the police, Tom, that said, you know, possibly was shot by a bystander is pretty weak.

9:47I'm not sure where that came from. If you know they were shot by a bystander, you should be able to say that. So I'm not clear yet that that's what happened. It may still be a suicide. You know, maybe the fact they have is that no officer shot and the guy's dead from a gunshot. Well, that could be by his own hand as well. Or it could be a citizen has intervened or, as Tom suggested, a security guard. So those questions all remain to be seen. I think one of the biggest questions is, you know, how did he get into school? If the school has locks and was he an insider, an employee, a student? We don't even know the age of the assailant.

10:22So were they a student, an employee, a teacher, a service member in there or something that worked in there? Or were they a complete stranger or a parent of a student who came there? A spurned lover or somebody who's mad at someone in the school? And was there a purpose to kill children, attack the school? We don't really have those answers. Hopefully in the next few hours that's going to unfold. But we have a lot of accurate reporting on shots fired outside at a motorist. the assailant making their way in the school, a number of wounded children transported, a number of people dead, and we always have to consider that the assailant killed people at their home because it's very common to kill a spouse, parent, child, significant other before they go on their homicidal rampage, and that all remains to be seen as well.

11:10So a lot of facts to unfurl here in the next few hours. Yeah, and again, just a lot that we don't know at this hour. Okay, we thank you, Jim, for your analysis as always. Also breaking tonight, the dangerous flash flood emergency in Texas. High water rescues unfolding as we're also tracking wildfire evacuations in Los Angeles County. Priscilla Thompson is across it all. Urgent rescues in West Texas tonight amid dangerous flash flooding in Midland. Firefighters seen here carrying a woman out of raging water. Another wading through knee-deep flooding with this man on his back. Midland Fire says they responded to more than two dozen rescue calls today, as rushing water swamps roadways, leaving stalled-out cars stranded in the streets.

11:56At one point, firefighters appearing to tether a stranded vehicle to their truck. Millions of people from Texas to Oklahoma are under flood alerts. In Colorado, west of Denver, thundersnow, snow falling during this thunderstorm rather than rain on Wednesday. And in Southern California, crews battling the peak fire igniting in Los Angeles County today. Evacuation orders and warnings issued. Red flag warnings now in effect across California, some up through Saturday night. Low humidity and gusty winds are forecast, meaning any fires that start will spread very quickly. All right, Priscilla Thompson joins us now from Houston.

12:37Priscilla, you mentioned those alerts from Texas to Oklahoma. What have authorities concerned the most right now? Yeah, Tom. So the greatest area of risk is the red part of the map that you see here. That is the areas that could see five inches or more of rain on already very saturated ground. So they have the potential to cause flash flooding very quickly, as tonight there are millions from here to Oklahoma at risk. Tom. Priscilla Thompson for us. Priscilla, thank you. To Florida now, where several children and adults were hospitalized after an SUV slammed into a daycare. George Solis has the late details.

13:16Tonight, the startling images at a Florida daycare. An SUV barreling into a building just outside Orlando with children inside. We have a count for all the children. Right now we have three attipations. From above, you can see the car. The wall completely smashed. What you see right there now where the SUV is, it's a classroom. We have kids in there. So some of the kids were transported. First responders arriving on the scene and shutting down the road. Kids are sitting at a table right after snack time. and that was where they were impacted. Fire officials say three four-year-old children and two adults, including the driver, were injured.

13:51Authorities say the 79-year-old driver ran off the road, traveling across lanes of traffic before striking the daycare. For whatever reason, he attempted to make, I don't know if he was making a left turn or a U-turn, but it ended up hitting the structure at the time that he struck the building. In a statement to NBC News, the hospital system that's treating the patients confirming they're all in good condition. Tonight, the investigation into the crash is ongoing. The fact that there are no fatalities here today is a blessing. I'm very shocked. George Solis joins us tonight from Miami. So, George, do we know how the children are doing tonight?

14:33Yeah, Tom, fire officials say they were all shaken up but expected to be okay. One of those children were expected to make a full recovery after being a bit more severely injured. And get this, fire officials said one of the adults that was injured was actually in the ambulance making phone calls to parents to make sure and let every parent know about what was happening at the time of the crash. Tom. OK, George, thank you for that. We turn now to the major reversal from President Trump, who now says the Pentagon will not livestream the execution of the convicted Fort Hood shooter. Our Courtney Kuby has more.

15:06President Trump overruling his defense secretary today, halting plans by Pete Hegseth to live stream the execution of convicted U.S. soldier Nadal Hassan. The president posting on social media that Hassan will die as scheduled by firing squad, but this event will not be streamed. A White House and U.S. officials say Hegseth surprised Trump administration officials with this announcement last week. And so he's going to get a firing squad of soldiers, as it should be. And we'll make sure that people are able to watch it, that it's public, because people need to understand that there's serious consequences for these types of things.

15:41Hegseth's plan to live stream the execution faced bipartisan opposition. The concern would be that he would create a video that they wouldn't be a recruiting tool for future terrorists. I wouldn't be watching it if it was aired. And skepticism from within the Trump administration. I don't know if that's actually going to happen. If it's ultimately live streamed, I'm not going to be watching it. Hassan, a former Army major, opened fire at Fort Hood in 2009, killing 13 and wounding 32 more. He was convicted of premeditated murder and sentenced to death. A U.S. official says that while the president initially liked the idea to stream his execution.

16:16Did I approve? Absolutely. He decided against it after learning more about the case. Hassan was shot during the attack and paralyzed from the waist down. White House officials say President Trump did not know Hassan was in a wheelchair, and that factored into the decision not to air the execution. Courtney Kuby joins us now live. Courtney, the livestream element isn't the only thing that surprised military officials? Yeah, that's right, Tom. For months, Army officials were planning for a possible execution by lethal injection at a federal facility in Terre Haute, Indiana, according to a U.S. official.

16:51But Secretary of Defense Pete Hegg says surprised Army officials when he announced that, in fact, the execution would be carried out by firing squad and at Fort Hood. Now, at this point, that is still set to take place on December 3rd at Fort Hood. But Nadal Hassan can file for a habeas petition. It's not clear that he would do that. And keep in mind, when he was convicted of premeditated murder in 2013, he told a military medical board that he wanted to die as a martyr. In fact, that he believed he would die during the original attack. Of course, he was shot and paralyzed in the attack, but he wasn't killed.

17:30One of the concerns is that by putting him to death, he will now get his way and be seen as a martyr, Tom. Okay. Courtney Kubi, a lot of new reporting there. We're going to turn to the new security concerns with early voting already underway for the midterm elections. Federal authorities are investigating letters with suspicious substances that were mailed to multiple congressional offices and also secretaries of state. NBC's Ryan Nobles is following this one for us. Ryan, you have new reporting on the testing of those letters? Yeah, that's right, Tom. In fact, three law enforcement sources who have been briefed on this matter say that the preliminary tests of this white powder that's been sent to all these different offices is not hazardous, but they are still in the early stages of these testing.

18:14And as you point out, they were sent to a number of different Senate offices. In fact, five different Senate Democrats' offices, including the Senate leader, the Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer, also sent to secretaries of state's offices in Republican states in Ohio, in Louisiana, in Oklahoma. In some cases, they were sent directly to the elections offices. So this is something that officials are watching closely. At this point, though, no one was hurt as a result of these letters being mailed, Tom. Yeah, and then many of the letters were intercepted, right, before they reached their intended targets?

18:48Yeah, that's right. So keep in mind, Tom, this is the 25th anniversary of the anthrax scare that gripped the nation shortly after the 9-11 attacks. At that time, anthrax was sent to a number of public officials all over the country. If you'll remember, five people died, 17 people were infected. Since that anthrax attack, the country handles mail in a much different way, especially to public offices. So in this case, many of these letters were intercepted before they ever even made it inside the offices. But we should say in at least two of the states, to the Secretary of State's offices in Louisiana and Oklahoma, the letters actually did make it to their intended destinations.

19:27Tom. Okay, it's good to point out there. Ryan, we thank you for that. Ukraine tonight declaring President Trump's energy ceasefire. It's over. Saying it will resume striking Russian refineries because the Russian attacks on their country, they never stopped. All of it likely to keep diesel prices rising. Here's Gabe Gutierrez. Tonight, what President Trump called an energy ceasefire has collapsed. Ukraine, rattled by days of Russian strikes, has resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries. President Volodymyr Zelensky declaring the ceasefire over. That's it. Block is out. Zelensky now posting this satellite image showing what he says is a damaged airfield in Russia.

20:07But Russian President Vladimir Putin today saying there was no major damage to his country's refineries. Also today, a Ukrainian defense ministry source says Starshield Internet service inside Ukraine is being restored, critical for air defenses. We understand what's going on because it was everywhere, the territory of the capital of all the Ukraine. Starshield is the military version of Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network. Musk has denied any involvement in the temporary outage. Tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine have been growing since last week when President Trump struck a deal with Russia to purchase diesel and lower prices at the pump for Americans ahead of the midterms.

20:48Gas prices now setting a record for the highest number of days above$4 a gallon in a calendar year. All amid the ongoing Iranian attacks on unarmed commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This Singapore-flagged cargo ship sinking near the Strait. Singapore says it was hit by an unknown projectile. Iran says it hit a mine. Iran has attacked multiple ships in the last week, threatening the flow of oil worldwide, all as the U.S. has been successfully shepherding more tankers through the strait. Gabe joins us from the White House. Gabe, let's go back to that temporary outage of the Starship Internet service in Ukraine you mentioned.

21:25You have new reporting on whether President Trump was involved. How so? Well, Tom, a senior U.S. official tells NBC News that the president made no such request to slow down the Internet. We continue to ask the White House and the administration whether someone else within the administration may have made that call. This all comes after Elon Musk said that any decision to reduce Starship speed would have come from the president or the Pentagon. Tom. All right, Gabe Gutierrez. Gabe, we thank you for that. Also at the White House, the new press secretary is facing growing scrutiny. NBC News learning Katie Zachariah did not pass the bar exam despite calling herself a lawyer.

22:03Monica Alba has more. Tonight, new White House Press Secretary Katie Zachariah facing questions, not just about the president's record, but her own. I am so honored to work for President Trump. When the president announced her hiring, he referred to her as an attorney. But a senior administration official tells NBC News she did not pass the California bar exam in 2011 after graduating from Pepperdine Law School. Legal experts say lawyer and attorney are widely understood to refer to someone who has passed the exam and is licensed to practice law. But Zachariah has repeatedly described herself as a lawyer.

22:40I am a lawyer and I'm a rigorous researcher. As a lawyer, the procedural steps are absolutely critical. That's what we do as lawyers. In a new interview, Zachariah is saying she had asked experts for advice. I consulted for a very long time. many people in the field, is it okay and acceptable if I label myself lawyer, not attorney at law, not Katie Zachariah Esquire, but lawyer, and provide legal analysis, not legal advice? And they said absolutely across the board. The controversy escalated Tuesday after this exchange with reporters. Where did she pass the bar exam? Which state? What did you say?

23:21Zachariah now telling the New York Times she misunderstood due to the loud Marine One helicopter, saying, I assume the question was, where were you after law school? The White House tonight saying she is whip smart and will do an incredible job as press secretary. I'm not being hired as White House counsel, and that's the long and the short of that. And just to show how rushed this hiring process was, Tom, She was offered the job and accepted it on Friday. She got her briefing materials late on Monday and had her first public press briefing Tuesday morning, which lasted just under 15 minutes and in which she only took questions from three reporters for about five of those minutes.

24:03Tom? Okay, Monica, thank you. And for more of NBC's political reporting and other big exclusives, scan the QR code on your screen and subscribe right now. Still ahead on top story, our exclusive interview with the mother of Breaking Bad star R.J. Mitty just days after his shocking death, telling her Chloe Malas about the devastating moment she found her son, why she says she's speaking out now. Plus an update on the violent ice incident in Houston. The officer accused of running over an immigrant now placed on leave. And new body cam video of a bizarre police encounter with a donkey. Why the officer involved is now being sued.

24:41Stay with us.

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26:11Once approved, your prescription ships straight to your door. Join the women who found real relief. Head to myalloy.com and use code SXM20 for 20 % off your first order. Valid on products only. We are back now with a top story exclusive. The mother of Breaking Bad actor R.J. Mitty opening up in an interview just days after his death. Telling our Chloe Malas about the moment she found her son's body and how she's grappling with a sudden loss. I want them to remember that infectious smile he had that he brought every place he went. The mother of Breaking Bad star R.J. Mitty speaking out exclusively with NBC News just days after her son's death, saying she hopes his story might help someone else.

26:57What made you want to sit down and speak with me today? The reason I'm speaking out now is because I will never let RJ's legacy die. The mother should never have to find their child this way. If I can say one person is hurt, I think that's what RJ would expect me to do. Dana Mitty's saying she was the one who discovered RJ's body after his apparent suicide at the age of 34. Do you know anything about the hours leading up to his death? I know the weekend was a tough weekend. He had some hurdles that weekend. I called him Monday morning. He didn't answer. So, I picked up lunch and went to take it to him.

27:37And that's when I discovered him. AMY WALTER, Did he leave anything behind in indicating his mental state? There was nothing left behind, no no's. I think that's the hardest thing right now. All the stuff I've been through, and you're scared of a little chemotherapy? Mitty's death causing an outpouring of support from fans of Breaking Bad and his co-stars, including actor Bryan Cranston, who played his father for five seasons, writing on Instagram, I loved him, and adding, I'll miss you, son. Bryan Cranston reached out to me. We talked. It was an incredible emotional conversation for both of us.

28:24Brian truly treated him like a son. They were just all truly, truly amazing with inspirational words about my son. The shocking death comes as RJ's mom says he was dealing with a tumultuous personal life, telling NBC News there had been tension involving his relationship with his fiance, Kennedy Suarez. I really don't know all of the details they were going through and I'm just going to leave it at that. NBC News has reached out to Suarez and has not heard back. We've also not confirmed what their relationship status was at the time of his death. What's up, pal? What the hell is wrong with you?

29:01Middy, who had cerebral palsy, broke barriers in Hollywood. Following Breaking Bad, Middy acted in dozens of films and TV roles, with six more projects upcoming, according to his IMDb page. But his mother says his legacy is more than acting. He was a great actor. He was my son. He was an activist, a philanthropist. I just want him to be remembered for all the wonderful things he's done in life. You feel so terrible for that mother. It's just such a sad story. There's an investigation. Do we know what the investigation is about? Well, we know that this investigation is ongoing, Tom, and we've reached out to authorities for further comment.

29:41But according to RJ's mom, they're looking through his phone, through his laptop, and she said that she hopes to have those items returned to her soon so that she, too, can go through it and see who he was talking to in his final moments and learn more about those last hours of his life. It was really, really a sad interview, and she's right now preparing for her son's memorial in the next couple days. Okay. Chloe, thank you. If you know someone who is in crisis, you can call or text 988 or visit the site you see here on your screen to reach the National Suicide and Crisis Lifeline. Okay, still ahead here on Top Story, we're going to have some updates on the Vatican and Pope Leo's health after his lung surgery and his cancer diagnosis.

30:25Our Ann Thompson is there. Plus, Steve Kornacki is at the big board gaming out the battle for control of the Senate. How election night could go if the polls aren't quite right. That's next.

30:40All right, we're back now with the battle for control of Congress with less than three weeks to go. Poll after poll shows Democrats in a strong position heading into election night, beating out Republicans on the national level and in many key battleground states. But Republicans on defense now beginning to ask, could these polls, could they be wrong? And could pollsters again be missing key portions of the GOP base? President Trump dismissing the data entirely when asked about it. and the polls in Iowa. First of all, the polls are fake. I think the polls are accurate because I want it by so much and it doesn't make sense.

31:16All right, let's get right to Steve Kornacki, the big board, for some clarity on all of this. I don't think the president has said the polls have been right since he's been elected now the second time, but let's talk about the fight for control of the Senate. If the polling we have right now is accurate, how would election night go? Yeah, I mean, take a look at this, Tom, here. Democrats, they're trying to get to 51 seats. Remember, 50-50, the tie would be broken by J.D. Vance for the Republican. Republicans trying to hang on to the Senate majority here. We've got eight kind of in a battleground category here, just sort of for the sake of argument.

31:44I think if you looked at the polls right now, one thing to keep in mind, first of all, is that seven of the eight you're seeing in this battleground category, at least right here, are currently held by Republicans. The only one of these seats that's held by the Democrats is Michigan. Now, this is a state Republicans think they have a shot in here. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, he's been leading narrowly in the polls. Republicans think he's a tough sell in a swing state. But again, you're saying if the polls right now are exactly what happens, then Democrats would hold on to that. They're best positioned here.

32:17The rest of these are Republican-held seats. The Democrats are actually best positioned based on the polls in North Carolina. You've even seen Republicans pulling resources out of that seat right here. And then to some degree, in these six other states, Democrats have some kind of a lead in the polling. I stress in a lot of cases here, Kansas, in fact, you could say is almost close to a tie. Let's say let's say Kansas were a bit out of reach for Democrats there. There are some polls that have Roger Marshall, the Republican incumbent ahead. But otherwise, these five, to some degree, there's an advantage you're seeing for the Democrats in the poll.

32:48That could be as as minimum as one point. So it's not like I'm saying they're five, 10 points ahead. But you see right now some combination of these three. Let's say, for argument's sake, it were Texas, it were Ohio. Let's say Democrats were able to get Susan Collins out in Maine. They've been trying forever. You know, any combination there gets them to 51. So, yeah, but as you say, we have been in this position before looking at these races in October, saying the Democrats have a lead of two points here, one point here, three points here. And they have fallen short many times over the last decade in some of the states we're talking about right here.

33:23Okay, so that's if they're right. Now, you know, a lot of times and sometimes the polls have been wrong. And the argument has been they haven't really polled the Trump voter. We don't know if there'll be a big Trump voter turnout this time. He's not on the ballot. If the polls turn out to be wrong in some of these states, how does that change your calculation? Yeah, absolutely. Look, one of the biggest misses we've seen in polling this century and when it comes to Senate races was in Maine with Susan Collins six years ago. The last time she ran, she was down double digits in some polls in October.

33:51She ended up winning by nine points. Now, we say she's down a little bit in the polls now. Maybe it's two points. I think there was a new poll that had her down by two. So certainly not out of the question that something like that could happen again in Maine. Excuse me. Sorry about this. I'm not sure what just triggered that there. Certainly not out of the – I apologize, Tom. I'm not sure what just happened with the board. It just kind of flickered there. But I would put it this way. I would look at a state like Maine where we've seen it before. In the other places, I would be suspicious. When you talk about this poll miss, I look at states like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio in particular, maybe even Michigan, maybe even Minnesota.

34:28Why am I circling those states? Because that's where the poll misses have been the most acute over the last decade. You talk about this idea that Trump voters, for some reason or another, get missed. Are the pollsters not finding them? Are they not willing to talk to pollsters? whatever it is, the most significant misses we've seen in polling over the last decade have been in some of these states. And so that's really the question there. Those voters, those pro-Trump voters, those pro-Republican voters, are they being missed in the polls to some degree again this time? If they are, then that's going to boost the Republicans potentially in all the states I got circled here.

35:04Or is this just, is it a different climate? You know, have voters sort of changed their tune on Trump with the economy, with the war in Iran and stuff like that. And nothing at all is being missed in those polls. But it's a very it's a very crucial question. And it's one I don't think there's a lot of agreement on right now. Yeah. And then, Steve, you know, it's interesting, because if you look at the ones you circled, they share a lot of qualities of the ones you didn't circle. You can't just say, well, it's rural areas or it's just Trump voters, because you have both in those other states that poll very well.

35:31Do you think it's the way they poll or do you think just maybe it's the people that live in those states? Yeah, look, I mean, Trump's biggest strength, the core strength of Trump since 2016, demographically, it has been older, blue-collar, white voters. And when you look at Michigan and Minnesota and Iowa, Ohio, even Maine, you know, sort of rural, northern and western Maine, you have just an abundance of that type of voter. And if you take it a step further back, that type of voter in a lot of these states used to vote Democratic, like right through Obama, switched big to Trump in 2016, has stayed there with Trump and the Republicans in 16 and 20 and in 2024.

36:15Can the Democrats, it's an interesting question in some of these states, can they peel back some of those voters now, win back some of those voters because of concerns over cost in the economy, inflation and that sort of thing? Or are those voters still very much engaged with Trump and the Republicans? And again, if they are, that possibility exists of a polling miss. Steve Kornacki, always great to have you, and we're so excited in the lead-up to the midterms. For expert analysis and updates on the midterms all season long, scan this QR code, subscribe to the Data Dive with Steve Kornacki. He'll actually come to your house.

36:45No, I'm joking. But his weekly newsletter is out every Tuesday, and it's one of the best political newsletters, if not the best that's out there. Okay, now to Top Stories News Feed. We start in New York, where ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appeared in court today with his wife. The couple pleaded not guilty to a new indictment, accusing them of conspiring to torture political opponents as well as some Americans. This is in addition to the drug trafficking charges they're also facing. Their trial is set to start next June. And an update on an incident we reported earlier this week involving ICE officers in Houston who struck a man with their vehicle during what authorities described as a targeted enforcement operation.

37:23A Homeland Security official with knowledge of the investigation says the officer driving the vehicle is now an administrative leave while the incident is under review. In Georgia, an officer is being sued for shooting and killing. Get this, a miniature donkey. Body cam shows the animal running up to the police in the field here. That's when one of the officers, can you believe this, opened fire on the miniature donkey. I can't even believe this. They were in the field there, the police, searching for a missing person when I guess the miniature donkey scared them. The officer is now asking a judge to dismiss the lawsuit, saying he thought his fellow officer was in danger.

38:02But the animal's owner who filed the lawsuit insists her donkey never posed a threat. Look at that. Wow. Okay, we have a health update tonight on music legend Billy Joel. The piano man tells The Hollywood Reporter he doesn't know if he'll ever tour again. He says his health is good, but he still needs to take a series of tests before he can return to the stage or even drive. The 77-year-old performer abruptly canceled his concerts last year after being diagnosed with a neurological disorder that affects hearing, vision, and balance. Okay, we're going to head overseas now to Rome, where Pope Leo is recovering from surgery for his lung cancer.

38:37The Vatican says he's already started to work from the hospital. Our Ann Thompson is there for us tonight. TOM, THE VATICAN PRESS OFFICE IS SPINNING A VERY POSITIVE STORY ABOUT POPE LEO'S RECOVERY FROM LUNG CANCER SURGERY. AND BY ALL ACCOUNTS, IT IS GOING WELL. BUT TALKING TO HIS LONG-TIME FRIENDS HERE AT THE VATICAN, THEY ARE URGING CAUTION, TELLING THE POPE THAT HE NEEDS TO FOLLOW THE DOCTOR'S ORDER AND TAKE ALL THE TIME HE NEEDS TO GET BETTER. TODAY, THE POPE WAS BACK AT WORK IN HIS ROOM AT ROME'S GEMELLI HOSPITAL. He had his first meeting since having that surgery on Tuesday. You remember doctors found cancer in the lower lobe of his right lung and removed it.

39:20He had a chest x-ray today of that lung and the doctors say the recovery is going very well in their words. In fact, they say his overall recovery is progressing as expected. Now that certainly answered prayers to his fellow Augustinians. That's the order from which the Pope came. But talking to several of them today, they said they are urging the Pope to take it slow, to pay attention to his health. That is his job, one now, before he gets back to his very demanding schedule. But as one priest said to me, that's not easy to tell the Pope. Tom? And Thompson, our thanks to you when we come back here in Top Story.

40:01Has AI in the classroom gone too far? Students say they can't think during tests, and teachers say grades are plummeting. We'll get into the debate right after this.

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41:56Complete a simple online intake, get matched with a menopause-specialized doctor who creates a treatment plan and provides unlimited messaging support, And once approved, your prescription ships straight to your door. Join the women who found real relief. Head to myalloy.com and use code SXM20 for 20 % off your first order. Valid on products only. Now to the alarming new reporting about the impact of AI in schools. Students say they can't escape the tech even though they feel it's rotting their brains. The greatest concerns? AI tools made by Google, which are ubiquitous in classrooms. In the U.S., 95 % of American schools use Google Chromebooks, that according to Education Week.

42:37And Google says more than 150 million students and educators worldwide rely on their education software, which now comes with AI features built in. Now, more than 60 teachers and students tell the Wall Street Journal Google's tech has gone too far. One 15-year-old from Virginia says Google AI was, quote, the biggest temptation because it's the easiest to access. I WANT TO BRING IN THE ANOTHER MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENT TELLING THE JOURNAL, WHEN I WAS IN A TEST AND I COULDN'T USE AI, IT WAS HARD TO THINK. TEACHERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND ACROSS SUBJECTS SAY THEY ARE SEEING TEST SCORES SUFFER AND THEY ARE ATTRIBUTING IT TO POSSIBLY THIS AI.

43:11I WANT TO BRING IN THE investigative reporter behind that story, Shalini Ramachandran. Shalini, thanks so much for being here on Top Story. We've covered some of the negative impacts of AI on children here on Top Story. We know about the negative effects, right, that are happening in some schools. But what you're finding is a little different. The teachers and the students are essentially saying we can't escape. Right, because Google's tools are ubiquitous and no tech giant has been more aggressive than Google in putting its AI tools in front of students in particular. And And that's thanks to its sort of wide and ubiquitous deployment of its Chromebooks and its Google software partnerships like Google Classroom.

43:47A former Google scientist described this to you as an experiment on an entire generation. We're now starting to see the data come through in real time. What do the grades and test scores show? So students' test scores on the world's largest comparative survey dropped to their lowest in a quarter century in reading. And U.S. scores dropped 14 points. And then in various pockets of the country where there was sort of AI encouragement, New York City, Denver, Boston, in K-12 schools in that district, there have been test score declines in various subjects. And in particular, you're seeing this in reading and writing.

44:26Yeah. Walk us through how Google gets to this point where they're essentially in almost every classroom. Yeah, I mean, about a decade ago, Google started rolling out its Chromebooks as sort of a tool to personalize education. And I don't know if you remember at the time it was sort of like about closing the digital divide and, you know, making sure that folks, kids who don't have devices at home would have devices if there's these one-to-one Chromebooks. And slowly tests and student assessments started moving online instead of the old bubble sheets. And the pandemics are supercharged all of this because of online learning and all that that brought.

45:03And so these Chromebooks and the kind of screen time in schools rose dramatically and kind of never really fully went back to how it was pre-pandemic. And one of the biggest beneficiaries of all this has been Google, because as these Google Classroom tools and Google's search AI tools have been rolled out, And in these last few years, as AI has become more ubiquitous on these Chromebooks, the students are using it all the time. And particularly, it's the Google bar. Yeah, but I can also push back a little bit here, right? Because Google is giving, and I want to say giving, you know, these schools are purchasing the Google computers.

45:42But they're giving the kids a chance and an opportunity and exposure to the technology. Technology is everywhere, right? And kids are going to be using computers everywhere, and they're going to be using AI everywhere. So this is sort of an introduction, if you will. I guess the question is, and maybe this is where your reporting was going, was where do you put up the guardrails? And I feel like we're saying every time we talk about AI, we put up guardrails. But there has to be an introduction. There has to be a use in everyday life if this is going to become part of our lives in everyday society.

46:10But it's sort of where do you draw the line, right? Where do you stop the, I guess, education on AI and the exposure to technology and just the old school learning? Right, totally. I mean, Google executives will also say, you know, we're all happy to offload our thinking to Google Maps and no one's memorizing phone numbers anymore. No one's crying about that. So what's the big deal with a third grader having AI at their fingertips? But I think one of the problems that teachers and parents and students have noticed is that the AI tools are at this point don't have the guardrails that don't just give up the answer.

46:47And some of these companies are starting to. Google is starting to create AI that doesn't just spit out the answer that's supposed to walk you through the problem. But it's Google Search, which gives you those AI overviews and has this AI mode chatbot. That's just made to give you the answer. And you cannot turn that off in your Google panel if you're a school administrator. That's a Google partner district. So some of these schools have started to come up with their own little workarounds to try to turn off that AI mode chatbot that shows up in Google Search. But that the Google search AI is kind of one of the most widely experienced forms of AI for children today.

47:23And that has no none of these kind of pedagogical guardrails that some of these AI companies talk. And for our viewers at home that don't know exactly what we're talking about, sometimes like if you're on Google and you and you search something and it's in the news, instead of taking you straight to the article, it'll take you now to that little drop box where it explains everything that would be in the article. and you don't get the full context if you were to read the story like maybe Shalini's story in the paper. The two nations' largest school districts, New York and L.A., have already restricted the use of AI for students in certain grades.

47:54Does that actually solve some of these issues that you're describing? It might. I mean, right now it's a moratorium, so they're trying to look to see if there's evidence. I mean, this is one of the big claims that parents and teachers who are part of this backlash are talking about. we've put all of these in front of the kids without any long-term evidence or studies that AI in front of them and like chatbots in front of them will actually help their learning. So can we wait and see what the studies and what the evidence is? And so that's kind of what New York and LA are doing by restricting it for a year.

48:25But that pushback that you talked about at the beginning, it's a very real thing. District officials also, you know, they talked to me about, well, we don't want to stick our heads in the sand. AI is here. If the kids don't know how to use it, Are we doing them a disservice? And there's really a healthy debate about all of this. All right. We thank you so much for coming on Top Story and explaining your big report. Still to come tonight, one of America's most iconic hotels, the Plaza shutting down for renovations. How many years it could last and how it's impacting tourists, brides, and the people who work there.

48:56Plus, the reigning champion L.A. Dodgers now on the verge of getting eliminated from the playoffs by a team that spent half as much on its players. Could this put an end to the salary cap debates? Stay with us.

49:09We're back now with the MLB playoffs and reigning champions, L.A. Dodgers, now on the verge of elimination. That's despite having one of the highest paid rosters in the league, which is more than the payrolls of the other three teams still in the postseason combined. Sam Brock has more on what it means for the future of baseball. The postseason. The Milwaukee Brewers are just on the brink of a World Series. 3-2 pitch and driven to right. Deep. Tucker back. Track. They're on the verge of upending baseball. A David vs. Goliath story. The team with the 19th largest payroll in the sport went away from slaying the Dodgers with a payroll and luxury tax that goes with it larger than all three remaining clubs combined.

49:53Dodgers fans dejected. It's like we didn't even show up to the playoffs. And the Brew Crews fan base elated. Losing its mind over Milwaukee's run. I feel like we're in a movie right now. I don't know why, but it just feels like it's our year. The Cleveland Guardians also understanding their fight. And a swing and a drive deep into right center. And there it goes! So too do the Tampa Bay Rays. Can he come through? Hicks, right center, down. Both still alive, both among the lowest payrolls in baseball. And the Rays are cashing in. It's a modern-day moneyball scenario playing out in real time. Why do you like him?

50:36Because he gets on base. Teams with fewer resources maximizing their results. MLB.com senior national reporter Mark Feinsand, who's covered baseball for decades, telling me. These are three teams that have very bright front offices that know how to do more with less in terms of payroll. They invest a lot of money in data out of Linux. They invest a lot of money in infrastructure. Now the Brewers' historic run. And Milwaukee is one win from the pennant. Reshaping the narrative about an underdog-friendly fall classic. Sam Brock joins us now. So, Sam, there is this looming lockout. There's this big debate over if some teams are paying too much, have too much money.

51:18How does what's happening now in the playoffs feed into that debate? You would think that the success of these smaller market teams, Tom, would mean, okay, we have to reassess everything. But historically speaking, this is an anomaly. The last time you had two teams representing each league from the bottom half of payrolls, not even the bottom five, bottom half, was 1991. It's been 35 years. So unless the Brewers somehow lose a 3-0 lead against the Dodgers, you are going to have that again for the first time in almost four decades. That's part A. Part B is this is sort of like an anomalous season for a couple of other reasons.

51:47One, the New York Yankees, sorry to say this, Boston Red Sox traditional powerhouses in the American League, they haven't had a very strong year. On the National League side, you have the Dodgers, who are probably going to lose. Shohei Ohtani, the best player in the sport, has been injured. Kyle Tucker, they spent a ton of money on him. He has underperformed. The reality is, though, they can just spend more money than everyone else, so their margin for error is wider. But this is not sustainable. You're going to see players say you can't do this. Injured maybe for pitching, but just not playing well either, hitting not well.

52:13Like, you know, Shohei's been quiet. You know, you did a lot of reporting on this, and to explain to our viewers, can they explain why teams like the Guardians, the Rays, the Brewers are playing so well? They are taking swings that other teams – first of all, they're exceptionally well-run. But they're taking swings that other teams would not. They're signing players like a Jack Centurio, who is the star of the Milwaukee Brewers. He got a lifetime contract before he'd ever played a single game of Major League Baseball. If that doesn't work out, the Brewers are in a very tough spot, but they have to take those gambles.

52:40They also trade players away with a couple of years of eligibility left because they can get huge amounts of prospects and restock their system. But then you don't get a Jacob Mizorowski, who has absolutely captivated the Milwaukee Brewers. Their fans may not get to see him beyond another two or three years. And that's the reality of this sort of problem. Yeah, it's the reality of baseball right now. Sam, great to have you on this one. Thanks for being here. We're going to stick here in New York because the iconic Plaza Hotel announcing it will close for at least four years because of renovations.

53:06The famous Fifth Avenue landmark is a tourist hotspot and pop culture staple. So what does it mean for visitors, hotel staff, and even the brides that were looking to tie the knot there? Our Air McLaughlin takes a closer look. It's one of the most famous hotels in the world. Welcome to the Plaza. But soon the Plaza Hotel in New York City will shut its iconic doors, at least temporarily. The hotel announcing repairs and restoration plans for its facade, work that will close the hotel for at least four years starting in January. What's New York without the plaza? Since the hotel first opened in 1907 at the corner of Central Park South, it's been a New York City staple, beloved by visitors around the world and frequently featured on film in classics like Eloise.

53:52Oh, hello, Mr. Nye. And of course, Home Alone 2, Lost in New York. I'd like a hotel room, please. With an extra large bed, a TV, and one of those little refrigerators you have to open with a key. The beloved movie's connection to the hotel still going strong. This week, 7-year-old Landon Collins from Alabama checked in as the winner of the Kevin McAllister look-alike contest, with a 16 scoop sundae delivered right to his room. The plaza also played a starring role in the 2006 movie Bride Wars. Your weddings have been scheduled for the same date. The plaza is our lifelong dream. That follows two best friends who accidentally booked their dream weddings at the hotel on the same day.

54:37Ironically, the movie wasn't actually shot at the plaza because of renovations at the time. Now, real-life brides may also need a backup plan. The plaza hotel did not respond to NBC News' questions about how the closure could impact weddings booked for next year and beyond. New York City-based event planner Tracy Taylor Ward has planned weddings at the Plaza. I'm sure that there are some very, very specific and very difficult emails going out right now. I'm sure they're doing everything they possibly can to help their clients through this as seamlessly as possible. She says part of her job is helping couples stay ready to pivot.

55:13Similar to other points in time, I hate to even use the word COVID, but there have been these moments where at the very last moment you find out that you can't have your wedding where you thought you were going to have it or when you thought you were going to have it, and you need to pivot. While the Plaza Hotel remains open for the upcoming holiday season, in the new year, even Eloise will need a backup plan. Erin McLaughlin, NBC News, New York. All right, that does it for us. Thanks so much for watching Top Story. I'm Tom Yamas in New York. Stay right there. More news on the way.

56:06Oh, look. You just got added to a meeting about coordinating another meeting to prepare for the pre-meeting ahead of the follow-up meeting, which will, of course, require a recap meeting, and then another meeting. Hit your booking point, book with Southwest, and enter airplane mode.