Wednesday, November 4, 2026

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1:17Tonight we're live from our NBC News election headquarters after Americans delivered a historic and pointed message on the future of this country.

1:30Tonight, the blue wave sweeping the nation. We just took back Texas. Democrats taking control of the House and the Senate in a seismic shift. Are you ready for change? Yes. And a stunning rebuke of President Trump. Today begins the great American comeback. Democrats winning in deep Republican territory and flipping states that haven't gone blue in decades. I'm seeing things I've never seen in this board before. The bitter contest in Michigan handing this country its first ever Muslim senator. So Mike, enjoy your retirement. In a night full of historic firsts. I am standing on shoulders made of steel.

2:11It's nice to know that love and truth prevailed tonight. Tonight, President Trump insisting the results are not about him. If I were in the ballot, we would have won. But will this be a reckoning for the Republican Party with the pressure now on for 2028? And what will Democrats do with control of Congress? Plus, the strong reaction from Wall Street and around the world. And the states still in play at this hour. Our team's on the ground, covering this once-in-a-generation election from every angle.

2:45Decision 2026. This is a special edition of Top Story. Live from NBC News Election Headquarters, here's Tom Yames. Hey, good evening. We do begin tonight with those fast-moving updates in one of the most consequential midterm elections in this country's history. Voters delivering a decisive rebuke of President Trump and the Republican Party. And as the dust from that political earthquake begins to settle, tonight Democrats are wrestling with how to move this country forward. Take a look at this. These are the seven Senate seats Democrats flipped to give them the majority. Two more states, Mississippi and Alaska, are still in play.

3:24Votes are being counted as we speak. And in the House, our NBC News decision desk estimates Democrats will hold 259 seats. Tonight, party leaders already shaping their agenda for the next term. The so-called blue tsunami sweeping up seats in deep red states, some that President Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democratic supporters overwhelmed with the motion in Texas. The Lone Star State sending a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in decades, and perhaps even more stunning, sending another to the governor's mansion. These photos of the victors, James Tallarico and Gina Hinajosa, toasting at a Whataburger going viral as they catapult into the national spotlight.

4:06This election of brutal reckoning for the Republican Party, President Trump insisting that the vote was not a referendum on him or his policies, choosing today to tour his new White House ballroom instead. While Vice President J.D. Vance appearing to distance himself from the president's policies, saying the war on Iran was the reason Republicans lost the election. And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis saying what happened last night is as close to an extinction-level event as the party has seen in the last 100 years. The stock market seeming to celebrate the decisive results. All three major indices skyrocketing today.

4:39Our team of reporters both here in the studio and across the country are ready to break down these results and where we go from here. But we want to begin tonight with Chief Capitol Hill correspondent and our good friend Ryan Nobles. Tonight, the stunning Democratic blowout. We just took back Texas. In a rebuke of President Trump, NBC News projecting Democrats winning control of the House and Senate. The likely Democratic Speaker today. It wasn't simply a blue wave. It was an American tsunami. And current Speaker Mike Johnson announcing he won't run for GOP leadership. following what Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is calling carnage.

5:22This is close to an extinction-level event for Republicans in many parts of the country. In Senate races, Democrat and pediatrician Annie Andrews in Deep Red, South Carolina, projected to defeat Darlene Graham. This victory doesn't belong to me. It belongs to all of you. To Pastor Adam Hamilton in Kansas, knocking off Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. To Texas, where James Tallarico helped end 30 years of Republican dominance statewide by beating Ken Paxton, today vowing to work with the president. We should also work with President Trump to deliver for working people across Texas and across this country.

6:02And in Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed set to become the first Muslim senator. I am so proud and honored to stand here as your senator-elect from the great state of Michigan. One of the few bright spots for the GOP in Florida, where Senator Ashley Moody and Governor-elect Byron Donald survived the blue wave. Donald set to become the state's first black governor. Mr. President, I want you to hear from Florida that we are still red. Exit polls show 79 % of voters said inflation is causing hardship for their families. Gas prices are expensive. I literally feel like I'm working just to be broke.

6:45But the Democratic victories seem more as a rebuke of Republicans than an embrace of Democrats. With our pre-election polling showing the Democratic Party's approval rating is just 29%. This was not a positive view of the Democrats. This was a rejection of Republicans in Washington, and Democrats just happened to be the beneficiary. Already, top Democrats suggesting they'll launch investigations into the Trump administration, suggesting impeachment proceedings against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Overnight, the Democrat, who will run the House Oversight Committee, posting lawyer up.

7:22But at least one new Democratic winner pushing back. The people of Texas did not elect me last night for retribution. They elected me to deliver for them to make their lives easier and better and less stressful. All right, Ryan joins us now live on set here. So, Ryan, do we have a sense of what Democratic leaders are going to do now with this power? Yeah, Tom, it probably doesn't come as a surprise that at least now they're promising to focus on affordability issues. They're talking about health care and energy prices. But there could be some conflict between Democrats in the White House, particularly over issues like the war with Iran.

7:55a top incoming Democratic committee chairman, threatening that he may look for Pentagon cuts if he doesn't see changes in the way the White House is approaching that war. And we got a sense a little bit about that tension in your piece there. How are Democrats going to balance whether to investigate the Trump administration versus trying to solve some of the problems that Americans elected them into Congress to solve? Well, they say they can do both, that there's enough members of Congress and enough issues to work on, that they can continue to work on these affordability issues while at the same time holding the White House accountable and doing their proper oversight.

8:27The issue is going to be, Tom, where is the energy in the party? And is the Democratic base going to push them to try and take on President Trump in a more meaningful way? They're going to conduct very rigorous investigations and oversight that is going to reveal information. Does that information almost force them into a position to go down the road of impeachment again? There are a lot of Democrats worried that that's a fight they don't want to take on this time around, but that may be a difficult situation for them to avoid. And it sounds like the conversations are already happening. Okay, Ryan, we thank you for that.

8:58Now to the new reality in Washington tonight. President Trump blaming the midterm defeat on the Iran war but still defending his call to start the conflict. Garrett Haake is at the White House for us. Tonight, with voters handing him that devastating rebuke... Our country is more successful now than at any time in its history. Watch the beam go up. President Trump appearing at the White House today alongside construction workers touting his new ballroom. DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States, we're ahead of schedule, under budget, and it's moving very nicely. And defending the Iran war, while acknowledging it was a major factor in the GOP's wipeout.

9:36Well, I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term. If I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again, because long-term, it's the only answer. You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon. Following Vice President Vance's own blunt assessment, appearing to try to distance himself from the conflict, posting the reason we lost is the war. Adding, if you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so. All of it, a swift reversal of fortune for President Trump, who won every battleground state and the popular vote just two years ago.

10:12His party punished by voters in an echo of President Obama's defeat in the 2010 midterms. when Democrats lost 63 House seats. I'm not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like I did last night. President Trump had implored voters to pretend he was up for election. So just close your eyes and pretend I'm on the ballot. But exit polls show 62 percent disapproved of his performance. If I were on the ballot, we would have won. There was such love at those rallies. It was an incredible one. We weren't able to transfer the love to candidates. HE CONGRATULATED DEMOCRATS, SAYING HE WILL WORK WITH THEM TO A POINT.

10:50I 'LL GET ALONG PROBABLY WITH THE DEMOCRATS UNLESS THEY WANT TO BE DESTRUCTIVE. THEY HAVE THE POWER OF THE VETO. OKAY, LET'S PICK IT UP THERE. GARRETT HAKE IS LIVE FOR US AT THE WHITE HOUSE TONIGHT. GARRETT, YOU HAVE SOME NEW REPORTING ON A POTENTIAL CABINET SHAKEUP? THAT'S RIGHT, TOM. TWO PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE DISCUSSIONS TELL NBC NEWS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS TOLD SOME OF HIS ALLIES IN RECENT DAYS THAT HE'S CONSIDERING REPLACING DEFENSE SECRETARY PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO BE DEMOCRATS. HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO FIND THE PRESIDENT OF THE PRESIDENT AND ASKED THE FOLKS WHO SHOULD SUCCEED HIM. TODAY THE PRESIDENT PRAISED HEAGSETH AS TERRIFIC AND SAID HE DOESN'T PLAN TO FIRE HIM.

11:24IS THERE ANY SENSE IN WHICH AREAS PRESIDENT TRUMP WOULD BE WILLING TO WORK WITH DEMOCRATS? HE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THEM ON BASIC THINGS LIKE FUNDING THE GOVERNMENT, KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON HERE IN WASHINGTON AND ON THOSE BILLS DEMOCRATS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE A LOT OF LEVERAGE OVER THE PRESIDENT. BUT I THINK IT'S POSSIBLE THAT HIS COMMENTS TODAY MIGHT BE THE HIGH WATERMARK OF THAT RELATIONSHIP WITH DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY COMMITTEES IN BOTH CHAMBERS WHO WANT TO AGGRESSIVELY INVESTIGATE HIM BASICALLY STARTING ON DAY ONE. IT'S HARD TO SEE HOW THAT SPIRIT OF WORKING TOGETHER HOLDS UP TOO FAR INTO NEXT YEAR.

12:00ALL RIGHT. GARRETT HAKE FOLLOWING A LOT OF HEADLINES TONIGHT FROM THE WHITE HOUSE. We thank you. Joining me now is moderator of Meet the Press, Kristen Welker. Kristen, let's kind of pick up the conversation there, because the last day of the midterms is the first day of the 2028 primaries, whether people want to admit it or not. And it feels like a lot of Republicans are putting some daylight between themselves and the president. Oh, you're absolutely right. This feels like a pivotal moment for Republicans. And I do think the question is going to be, how much do some Republicans decide to distance themselves from PRESIDENT TRUMP.

12:29WE STARTED TO SEE THAT TODAY WHEN VICE PRESIDENT J.D. Vance BLAMED THE WAR WITH IRAN ON THESE MASSIVE LOSSES. WE SAW, OF COURSE, GOVERNOR DESANTIS ALSO CALL THIS AN EXTINCTION EVENT. AND I TALKED TO ONE SENATE AID WHO MADE THE POINT THAT THE CHALLENGE NOW FOR WHOEVER WANTS TO RUN IN 2028 IS NOT NECESSARILY CARRYING THE TRUMP MANTLE BUT REBUILDING THE PARTY. AND WE SHOULD BE CLEAR, You know, Governor Ron DeSantis and the president, they do have sort of a strange relationship. Right. I think they were rivals. At one point, President Trump said Governor DeSantis needed a personality transplant. So there's some some bad blood there.

13:06Are you getting a sense from talking to the Republicans that you're speaking with? How do they rebuild? Look, it can be done. Right. We I have seen so many midterms in elections where, you know, pundits say, oh, this party is wiped out. And then two years later, they come back to power. But is there anything the Republicans want to focus on? Well, it's a great question. Look, I think Republicans heard the message loud and clear, as did Democrats, which is that voters want someone to focus on the economy. And I do think, and based on my conversations, I think you're going to see those conversations start to happen around things like the war with Iran.

13:38Because if you look back, Tom, that's really when we started to see gas prices increase. That's really at the root of some of these rising prices. So what can Republicans do to try to rein that in? And I'm going to be curious to see if there's a broader discussion about the president's economic policies from health care to tariffs. I think that's where you could see a really heated debate. And, you know, the Democrats winning, that's just half the battle for them. What are you hearing from your Democratic sources about what they're going to focus on? Well, Democrats say that, yes, top of the list is the economy, health care, making life more affordable.

14:13But then, as you just heard Garrett lay out, there's also this robust effort at oversight, investigations, and a really robust debate going on about impeachment. And, Tom, I've spoken to a lot of Republicans. They fall in all different areas on this debate. But a number of them are concerned that if Democrats were to move to impeach President Trump, that that could backfire if they're too focused on investigations. Because is that really why the American voters sent them to Washington? Yes, it seems like they want oversight over this president, but they also want to see results. And, Tom, if in two years the American people don't see results, we could see the pendulum swing again, this group of voters that we saw move from President Trump to Democrats overnight.

15:01It's a group that seems to be very influenced by what they're actually seeing and feeling in their own lives. And for them, these high prices are visceral and they want to see change. All right, Kristen Welker, part of our political team. She'll have a huge Meet the Press on Sunday. We're looking forward to that. So much news. Kristen, thank you for being here tonight. We're going to turn to the surging stock market after Democrats retook control of Congress. As early results poured in last night, futures plunged. But tonight, it's a sea of green on Wall Street. All three major indices posting big gains with the Dow leading the way up more than 1 ,500 points.

15:35It's best day since April of last year. Ali Canal joins us now to break it all down. Ali, we know the markets usually like a divided government. Explain why. Well, when these political parties, Tom, have checks on each other, that prevents usually these big sweeping changes from happening. And that, you know, allows more predictability. And at the end of the day, markets love certainty. So even just getting through this midterm election cycle provided a lot of relief to traders. Also, there was a question mark whether or not Donald Trump would accept the results of this election. Not only did he accept them, he said he's excited to work with Democrats in the future.

16:10So you're seeing on your screen now, I mean, the Dow up more than 1 ,500 points, S &P, the Nasdaq as well. And I also want to take a look at Brent Crude, the international benchmark dropping like a rock today below$100 a barrel. We have not seen this in about a month at this point. And there's a lot of thinking out there that a Democratic-led Congress could maybe tie the president's hands when it comes to some of his more inflationary policies, things like tariffs, trade wars, and then, of course, the war with Iran. Maybe we could see a quicker end to that as well. And then what about 401ks? Should people expect to see a boost with the way the stock market is going right now?

16:48Yeah. If you're heavily tilted to U.S. stocks, which many 401ks and retirement portfolios are, it's a good day to check those 401ks. But it's also a good reminder of how quickly things can change in the stock market, right? It's why I often say you want to stay invested even on down days. Because remember last week, Tom, we saw a big sell-off in the stock market as investors got a little concerned about AI spending overall. And now just a few days later, we are marching back toward record highs. So again, a reminder that we cannot time the market. We can't predict the future. And if you're saving for retirement, you want to stay invested in the long term.

17:24And then our exit polls show that the cost of living was a huge driving force here for voters this year. Walk us through the data that you're seeing as well. Yeah, I mean, look, this is the split screen that we've been seeing between Wall Street and Main Street. American voters in a pretty sour mood. 75 % of those voters who we spoke with in our exit polls says the economy is not good or poor. They are dissatisfied, angry with how the U.S. is going. And I thought this was interesting, too. 70 % says the economic system favors the wealthy. This goes back to that K-shaped economy that we often talk about, where wealthier Americans have been feeling okay because they own homes, they're invested in the stock market, while lower-income Americans feel left behind.

18:05And to that point, more than 50 % of those exit poll voters say life for the next generation will be worse. I think a big part of that has to do with that housing market. We have prices high, we have mortgage rates high as well. And then if we take a look at sort of the factors here that are contributing to this sour feeling. We have gas and diesel as one of the top concerns. We know gas prices are tangible. They're out there. I've been calling this the gas price election, and it very much was. Diesel, we have to remember, that's the workhorse of the economy. It powers our trains, our ships that transport our goods, our tractors that help produce our food.

18:42To that point, food and groceries, the top concern for voters, those prices. Utilities, this is something we're going to be focused on as we head into the winter months. We've seen higher utility bills due to the war with Iran and also the build-out of these AI data centers and health care costs, Medicare premiums, out-of-pocket expenses. Those are expected to go even higher in 2027. And Americans, according to our voters in these exit polls, most blame President Trump's policies rather than factors outside of the Trump administration's control. And I really think this speaks to the bigger theme that we saw throughout the course of last night and ultimately how the voting went, Tom.

19:22All right, Ali Kanaf for us. Ali, thank you. Still to come on this special edition of Top Story, we're on the ground in Alaska where votes are still being counted. In that closely watched Senate race, the margins tonight razor thin. Could the so-called decoy Dan actually play spoiler? Plus, reaction pouring in from overseas to Democrats' massive blue tsunami. What it could mean for the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Stay with us.

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21:04NBC News right now estimating the Dems will hold 259 seats in the House, a very strong majority. and they will hold 54 seats in the Senate. These seven seats they picked off from Republicans are NBC News decision desks, still closely watching the razor-thin Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska. We've got a lot to discuss, so let's bring in our political pros tonight. Democratic analyst Corbyn Trent is the former communications director for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a good friend of the show. And Tiffany Smiley is the founder of Endeavor PAC and a former Republican Senate candidate, also a good friend of the broadcast.

21:36We thank you for being here. Tiffany, we're going to start with you. Let's start in Texas. This wasn't just a wave. This was historical. It was something that we haven't seen in decades, both the governor's mansion and the Senate. What do you make of this? Who are you blaming? Yeah, you know, I think last week, Tom, I told you there's no way, there's no way the Democrats will take Texas. I have to be honest, I sat there in shock. It wasn't, they didn't just take Texas. But you have a smile on your face today. Yes. I mean, it's a good thing in a lot of regards because the American voters turned out TO VOTE.

22:08THEY SHOWED, I THINK, CONGRESS THAT WE WILL HOLD YOU ACCOUNTABLE. I THINK I CAUTION THE DEMOCRATS, THOUGH, BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THIS WAS AN ELECTION THAT SHOWS AN ENDORSEMENT OF THE DEMOCRATS. I THINK THE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO BECAUSE THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DELIVER. I DIDN'T REALLY HEAR ANY POLICIES BEING DISCUSSED IN SOME OF THESE ELECTIONS. ALMOST AS IF THE VOTERS JUST SAID, I WANT THIS TO BE MY PERSON. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO TELL ME WHO TO VOTE FOR WERE GOING TO DECIDE AND THAT THEY DID. IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR REPUBLICANS TO COME TOGETHER AND BE BETTER AND SHOW THAT THEY CAN WORK WITH DEMOCRATS.

22:45I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP CAN MOVE SWIFTLY AND QUICKLY. HE CAN WRAP UP THE IRAN WAR. GAS PRICES CAN COME DOWN. HE CAN START TO MAYBE WORK A DEAL WITH DEMOCRATS. HE'S INDICATED THAT HE'S WILLING TO WORK WITH DEMOCRATS WHICH IS REFRESHING TO THE AMERICAN TODAY HE SAID THAT. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HE'S GOING TO SAY TOMORROW. But yeah, okay. I think he's true to that word. That is who he is. He's a dealmaker. He is a dealmaker. And he brought Mom Donnie into the White House and has an open line with him. So I do believe it would be in the Democrats' best interest to try to work a deal with President Trump or deliver for the American people in some regard.

23:18We'll see what happens. On your earlier point, I want to play some sound for Corbyn here. This is Gina Hinojosa. She's going to be the next governor of Texas, the first Latino ever elected governor in Texas. Here's what she said. We did not end one era of single-party rule just to usher in another. The same national pundits and political class who ignored and then misunderstood this campaign will declare this a victory for Democrats. They continue to misunderstand. This victory is so much bigger. interesting comments there what do you make of it you know and she was upset that democrats the national party didn't give her more funds but it felt like she's distancing herself from the democratic party there i mean i would distance myself to a degree from what the democratic party brand is nationally at large i mean it's a 39 or something favorability you know the the rebuilding that tiffany's talking about is rebuilding trust in either party rebuilding trust in government rebuilding trust in institutions it's a big part of it this is a new deal moment That's what's required.

24:25The idea of bringing affordability up as, you know, just as a campaign message and then not having a plan to solve it is a really disastrous potential. Because the thing that that could do is it could lead you to massive disappointment. And then as people get more and more disappointed, they get more and more desperate. And then the next thing you know, they're electing, say, I don't know, people like Donald Trump a couple of times. Right. And that's the way they're showing their disdain for the system. So, you know, I was looking at this clip earlier where it says 63 percent of the voters, they thought it was Trump's policies that are to blame for affordability.

24:57And my fear is that many of the Democratic electeds are going to feel the same way. This affordability crisis goes before Trump. It's what led Trump to be elected in the first place. This affordability crisis goes back to the early 2000s or late 19. This is a long, simmering problem. And solving it will take a lot of work. And if we don't, as a party, as a people, say... And the other thing about Gina there saying that this is not time for a single-party rule, any time we've made major progress in this country, whether it's the Progressive Era, the New Deal Era, or the Civil Rights Era in the 60s, what did we have?

25:30We had massive, massive supermajorities of one party or another, Republicans or Democrats. Tiffany, last week here on Top Story, you said President Trump would boost the Republican candidates in the states that he went to. That clearly didn't happen. have we now reached a peak Trump point in the Republican Party? And is this now sort of the end of the MAGA movement? If you were advising candidates who were thinking about running for the presidential primary and the Republican ticket, I mean, look, you'd want the president's endorsement, right? Because he still has a hold on a lot of the Republicans.

25:59But would you want him out there campaigning with you? Well, look, to my point earlier is I think Trump can turn this around very quickly. And if he starts to lower gas prices and the economy starts to get better, like he's promised that he can do, just give me time, he wraps up the war, that could be a good thing going into 2028. I will say South Carolina— You don't think the brand is toxic now? He got his voters out. They're just so mad they didn't vote for him. Okay. They went a completely different— Then they wouldn't be his voters anymore, though, right? Completely different direction. You look at South Carolina, record level of voters— Yeah, but you can't call those Trump voters, then, if they didn't vote, you know?

26:31Record level. They're not Democrat voters either. Okay. And that's what I think is fascinating. Yeah, they're swing voters, right. that's happening is they're deciding who they want to vote for and they're holding, they're looking for something to change. And whatever party can capture this, because I don't think any party has been able to do this in politics for a long time. It's always a mandate or we're voting against something. But if the party can figure out how to get the voters to vote for something, I think that is the key. It's been a couple of different cycles where we haven't had that.

27:00I do want to ask, you worked for AOC. She made a famous statement when she was campaigning WITH EL-SAIED IN MICHIGAN. SHE SAID IF ABDUL CAN WIN HERE, WE CAN WIN EVERYWHERE. OR WE CAN WIN ANYWHERE, I SHOULD SAY. IS SHE GOING TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT AND DOES SHE HAVE A SHOT? I HAVE NO IDEA IF SHE'S GOING TO RUN OR NOT. WHAT DO YOU THINK? SHE WANTS IT. THE FUNNY THING IS, YOU KNOW, I THINK PEOPLE DECIDE AND THEN THEY UNDECIDE ALL THESE THINGS. FUN. IF SHE RUNS, DOES SHE HAVE A CHANCE? THERE'S NO QUESTION. 100 % SHE HAS A CHANCE. WHY? BECAUSE SHE IS A GREAT COMMUNICATOR. She has great empathy and understanding of people.

27:36She has great respect for other human beings. And she connects with people. And she can work like a dead game dog. So, you know, I think those are attributes that, and she's great on TV. Tiffany, before we go. Other than that. Yeah. Tiffany, before we go, Speaker Mike Johnson says he doesn't want any more leadership responsibilities. He's going to step down. Who do you think takes over the minority in the House? I think that's to be determined. I think more importantly, it's, you know, Hakeem Jeffries and stepping into that leadership role, willing to work with President Trump. This is an opportunity for Democrats.

28:06I think of Bill Clinton in 1994, Newt Gingrich contract with the American people. That's something that we need. Yeah. Corbyn, as you look at the time that the Democrats have these two years, do you think they can do anything meaningful for the American people in Congress? I think what they can absolutely do is they can develop ideas that are going to actually solve the crises, whether it's health care, housing, child care, all of these things that we're facing, whether it's fuel, energy prices, how are we going to handle AI when it starts taking the top 20 % jobs? If they can put together those ideas, get them out there into people's minds, if Trump vetoes it, he vetoes it.

28:45What they can do is show what they would do given even more power. And that's the case that they've got to make. Hopefully they can get it done. Hopefully you're right. Trump will work with them. But I think it has to be on their terms. All right. Corbin, Tiffany, we thank you both for being here. Thank you. All right. We have much more ahead on this special edition of Top Story, including the other major headlines we're following tonight. In Florida, deadly shooting at a Citibank complex. Was it a targeted attack? Plus, the remarkable rescue after a six-year-old boy went missing for days. How search teams on horseback finally tracked him down.

29:16But first, Top Story's top moment and an election watch party right here in New York City that paid homage to one of our own. That's a Steve Kornacki lookalike contest in Queens, where competitors don white-collared shirts, khakis, and gave their best big board performance. And here's a look at the winner. Maybe not a spitting image, but love the election fund. Yeah, I think Steve looks a little better than that. You're one of a kind in our book, Steve Kornacki. Stay with us. More of our special edition of Top Story right after this.

29:49The results are not going to be fast, but Alaskans are patient. We just want to make sure the folks from the lower 48 know it won't be hours. It won't be days. It will be weeks. That's Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola reminding Alaskans and the country that results may not come fast in the closely watched Senate race there. At this hour, NBC News projecting that the race is still too early to call with about 74 % of the vote in. And no surprise, it's shaping up to be a close race between Mary Peltola and the incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan. The big question, though, could the other Dan Sullivan on the ballot be the difference in this race?

30:27Steve Patterson is tracking it all and joins us live on Top Story from Anchorage tonight. Steve, right now the Democrat, Peltola, is up by only 0.3%, while those outsiders, including the other Dan Sullivan, claimed around 4%. So now voters are still being, votes are still being counted, but could the double Dans on the ballot be the difference here? So, Tom, I'm glad you asked. It's unlikely in this scenario. And this is particularly why people voted to have a ranked choice system in the first place. First of all, these votes are being collected from all over the state by absentee, by military and in remote villages where access to roads is very difficult.

31:03It's why it takes so long, right? Ranked choice cannot be triggered until all of those ballots are collected up to 15 days. We could be taking some time here. But the way it works is if the margins are this razor thin and no candidate reaches that 50 percent threshold, triggering rank choice. That's the reason why it may negate those margins, because the candidates that aren't in the top two sort of fall off. Their votes are sort of absorbed by those top two candidates. In other words, a vote that you would have for a candidate that's not in that top two would then go to one of those top two candidates, therefore negating the margin.

31:39That's the theory. That's the hope, at least, anyway, here in Alaska, Tom. So then, Steve, I have a question there. We've been talking to the voters, and you've been talking to them for days now, and it was all eyes on Alaska. It was going to come down to Alaska, and then election night happens last night, and it's like, well, control of the Senate. It's not going to be about Alaska. That being said, every vote counts, and nobody wants to sort of get ripped off, if you will, when it comes to their vote. What is the temperature like, and what's the environment like right now with people that live there?

32:08You know, people want to know who their senator is going to be. I think this the whole Dan Sullivan controversy, especially particularly when it comes to confusion on the ballot. Voters here very smart, well-educated, knew who they were going to vote for, know who they're going to vote for and wanted to exercise that vote. But they want to know now who's going to lead this state, the person who is going to bring them a little bit more ease when it comes to, of course, the economic things that we've been talking about this whole election. Right. Gas prices, fuel prices, diesel prices. Diesel, of course, runs nearly everything in a place like Alaska, especially those small remote villages.

32:42It powers the power grid in a lot of places. It's in the boats. It's in the SUVs, the ATVs needed to get around this state because so much of the state is really literally cut off. the roads in one direction from where I'm standing, 400 miles away, we went to a place called Bethel, Alaska. You cannot get there by road. You have to fly or take a boat. And it's the same thing with the ballots. The reason why, again, these ballots are so difficult to count is because you have to fly that ballot machinery into a place like that and then fly the ballots out. It takes an incredibly long time, and it's the reason why folks here really want an answer on who's going to lead the state, who's going to bring people some relief.

33:23And I think they've exercised that, Tom. Yeah, it's what every voter wants and has asked. All right, Steve Patterson, we thank you tonight. Appreciate it. Now to Top Stories Global Watch. Tonight, the Democrats' blue tsunami stretching far beyond the U.S., landing on newspapers around the globe. Front pages from South America to Europe to the Middle East plastered with election results with headlines declaring last night a defeat for President Trump. the world watching closely to see what this blowout could mean for the Iran war, which has shocked the global energy market. I want to bring in chief international correspondent Keir Simmons and a good friend of Top Story.

34:00Keir, Iran is using the midterms as fuel against the war. How do you think this plays out? Because it sounded like there were real developments in the days leading up to the midterms. Yeah, that's right, Tom. Let's start with a little modesty, a little honesty, and admit that we simply do not know where this goes from here. Certainly here in the Gulf region, we have been braced night after night for the potential that there could be a renewed war, that there could be an escalation. President Trump today sending mixed messages suggesting that he might do it and he might not. The Iranians do not seem to know.

34:35For example, their chief negotiator, Mohammed Garabaoth, is saying that Americans voted against the war. The supreme leader, Mushtaba Khamenei, talking about that if people think that America's foreign policy is changing. They are gravely mistaken. So there are real efforts, for example, here in Qatar, Tom, to try to negotiate, to try to get to a place where there isn't an escalation. But I don't think we can say we're anywhere near that yet. Remember that the Trump administration, the U.S. still has enormous firepower in this region. The Iranians still have not compromised on their nuclear program.

35:12And here one person who notably has been quiet about the election results is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He needs the president's support in the war against Russia. What is the reaction from Ukraine and from Russia tonight? Yeah, fascinating, isn't it? The Ukrainians were pivoting a little bit simply before all of this happened. You will remember those headlines, the arguments between the Trump administration and President Zelensky. I think they will be looking at this, and you're right, they haven't been saying very much, and that's probably political on their part. I think they will be looking at this and thinking that an empowered Democrat Congress might be able to help them get the funds they need.

35:53Remember that the Europeans are buying the weapons from the U.S. that they are then passing on to Ukraine. I think the Russians seem anxious, seem nervous. I think that they will be worrying. They're suggesting that the Trump administration should stay focused, as they say, on negotiations. One point, Tom, President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, his envoy, Steve Wyckoff, will be here in this region in the United Arab Emirates next week, along with Ukrainians and Russians. Those talks suggest, just to the point in our earlier conversation, that maybe there won't be strikes on Iran in the week ahead.

36:31We have to wait and see what happens there. Keir Simmons for us tonight here on the broadcast. Keir, we thank you for that. Now to Top Stories news feed, and we're going to start with a deadly shooting at a city bank complex in the Tampa area. Video shows law enforcement evacuating people from the building with their hands in the air. Authorities there say two were killed, including the suspect. That according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office. The suspect crashed their car into an outdoor seating area, then got out with a rifle and opened fire on a woman who later died. They say a security guard shot the suspect and that they believed it was a targeted shooting.

37:04Also in Florida, a helicopter crashed off the coast of Miami. Authorities say one person is dead and two others were rescued and rushed to the hospital. Here you can see that chopper upside down in the waters of Biscayne Bay. This happened just off of Key Biscayne. You see the yellow floats on the surface there. The sheriff there says the helicopter was chartered and was filming boats before it went down. Investigators are now working to figure out what exactly went wrong here. And a scary moment just outside of Indianapolis, a first responder getting caught in the middle of a fiery explosion.

37:34Here's what it looked like. Crews were responding to this car burning on the side of the road when it suddenly just erupted, sparking this massive fireball, the flames fully engulfing a firefighter. Thankfully, all that protective gear did its job. Authorities say the firefighter was not injured and that the driver made it out before the blast. At a miracle rescue in Kentucky, a 6-year-old boy had gone missing for almost two full days. Volunteers holding him there in that blanket. Search crews tracked him down after scouring the mountains and trails. On horseback, it all started when police issued an alert Sunday warning a child living with autism or mental illness had gone missing.

38:09They say they found him with a dog that likely helped them stay warm at night. That's incredible. Still to come on this special edition of Top Story, what that historic blue wave could signal about who might run for president in 2028. We'll break it down with our political pros right after this.

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39:39Personal, powerful conversations with Colin Kaepernick, Jeremy Renner, Gabby Giffords, and others. Join me wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to all episodes of Before and After with Lester Holt now, wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to our special coverage of these historic midterm elections. Democrats decisively taking back control of both the House and the Senate, flipping the seats in parts of the country where President Trump won by double digits just two years ago. The question now, what comes next? Let's bring in our political pros to help us answer that question. Hogan Gidley is a Republican strategist and former Trump deputy press secretary and a good friend of Top Story.

40:21And Yemesi Egbewale is a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to the Biden White House press office, also a good friend to the show. We thank you both. Yemesi, I want to start with you. You came on Top Story last week and predicted Democrats would lose the Senate. How shocked are you by what happened? And I understand you were sort of hedging your bets. And what's the feeling within the Democratic Party right now from the people you're talking to? Absolutely gobsmacked. early in the night when the returns were coming in from South Carolina and Annie Andrews was performing way above expectations, and even Florida, where it looked like certain counties, Angie Nixon was polling and David Jolly, people realized, oh, this is very real.

41:02Look, Democrats have been burned before, and they tend to operate with some cautious optimism. But as the night went on, everybody fell really into the joy, and we got to see a tsunami, something a lot of us have only ever really dreamed about. Hogan, President Trump, as you know, spent months telling voters to pretend he was on the ballot. In fact, he said it at every single midterm Blitz rally. Take a listen. So if you don't mind, please pretend that I'm on the ballot. As they say that Trump does great when he's on the ballot, but when he's not on the ballot, his people don't come and they don't vote for senators, congressmen, and other Republicans.

41:40What I really want you to do is pretend, please, pretend that I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. I'm on the ballot. Yeah, and voters did, just not in the way the president maybe wanted. Now, today, the president's saying the results were not a hit on him. Let's listen. If I were on the ballot, we would have won. You saw the people that were packed, thousands and thousands of people at every rally. And if I was on the ballot, we would have won. We weren't able to transfer the love to candidates. ALL RIGHT, HOGAN, SO I KNOW IT'S BEEN LESS THAN 24 HOURS, BUT I KNOW YOU 'VE BEEN TALKING TO ALL YOUR COLLEAGUES AND YOUR FRIENDS WITHIN THE PARTY.

42:18AND YOU EVEN SORT OF SEE IT IN THE ENERGY THAT THE PRESIDENT HAD TODAY WHEN HE WAS TALKING TO REPORTERS THERE. GIVE ME A SENSE OF WHAT THE FEELING IS INSIDE THE PARTY. WELL, LOOK, I THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME SOUL-SEARCHING FOR SURE WHEN YOU HAVE SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED AND IMPLEMENTED SEVERAL POLICIES THAT ARE 80-20 ISSUES THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TRULY DID LIKE and truly did support, and yet you get shellacked like this in a midterm election, you know, you have to look around and wonder why that is. And I think the embassy hit on something there that was poignant, which is, you know, even places like South Carolina, the reddest of the red states, you had Darlene Graham winning counties, but not nearly to the amount that Donald Trump did, to the tune of 10 to 14 points less than what Donald Trump was able to get together.

43:07And you saw that across the country. And when Florida went solidly red, but by infinitesimally small numbers, you knew it was going to be a problem. And by all estimates and all of the exit polling, it just shows that voters didn't like the war and they didn't like the prices. Two things they perceived to not be addressed by this administration and the Republican Party writ large. And so now it's back to the drawing board and trying to get things changed for the next couple of years. Yeah, Missy, I want to talk about Florida. Republican Ashley Moody defeated the DSA candidate, Angie Nixon, as you know, but it was a lot closer than anyone expected.

43:41The governor's race as well. In a state that went for the president in 2024 by double digits, what do Democrats need to do to close that gap in 2028? You have to invest in the infrastructure. The South really proved themselves, and having come from the South and Hogan's from the South as well, we know that it oftentimes can get forgotten by some of the bigger apparatuses of the national party. And if you make investments in Florida now, the same as we made in Georgia when Stacey Abrams was running, in Texas when Beto O 'Rourke was running. You saw investments in South Carolina when Jamie Harrison had been running.

44:14If you continue to make the investments now, the voters are there. There is this belief in the Democratic Party that a lot of states below the Mason-Dixon line do not have the numbers to help carry the Democrats nationally. And this midterm proved that the South can hold itself. Florida nearly proved that it could hold itself. And certain key races and House districts did flip from red to blue. It is incredibly competitive down there, and 2028 is a totally different story now. Hogan, young men, Latinos, they went for the president in 2024. Two years later, they swung towards the Democrats. Republicans will have two years before the next big election.

44:49Is there a way to get those groups back, or has the Republican Party lost the trust of those two key voting groups? No, you can always get them back. We were asking, could the Democrats ever get back the coalition that Donald Trump was able to cobble together in 2024, and it looks like in two short years they did. In large part, it has to do with what they actually accomplished while they are in office. And if there's one silver lining on all this, I'm 100 percent certain the Democrats will go too far to the left and take the wins they got last night as a mandate to go ahead and implement some of the most radical policies that the American people don't necessarily like.

45:26And polling shows are not their favorite thing. It just seems as though they didn't want to vote for Donald Trump or for Republicans. That's a far cry from deciding to vote for Democrat policies. And so if Democrats want to try and open up the borders again, or if they want to open up all the prisons and have crime go back up and raise your taxes and all the things they promised to do, I think the blowback will be significant. At the same time, it's kind of purgatory for them, because if they don't push forward with those radical policies that they ran on and went on, then their base is going to be mad at them for not coming through on the promises they made.

46:01So I think the firm, stiff, solid hand of governing is about to slap the Democrats across the face pretty hard in the coming days and weeks. We'll have to wait and see. I want to look at some of the numbers, though, and put them up here for our viewers. Nationwide, Latino voters dropped off for Republicans. 46 percent preferred the Republicans in 2024 compared to just 34 percent last night. I mean, this was if you were going to pick sort of one graphic of the night and you try to explain Texas, this might be it right here. same story with men under the age of 30 that went from 49 % for Republicans in 2024 to just 32 % last night.

46:37We were talking about this on the desk last night when the manosphere turned very, very red, and those young men were voting for President Trump and the MAGA coalition. What do you think Democrats have to do to hold on to those voters? Is it simply try to figure out a solution for the war in Iran, get gas prices back down, and tame inflation somehow? It's a tall order and it's going to be tough for Democrats. Look, President Trump came into his second administration and he overperformed on immigration. But what he did was he took it a couple steps too far. And ICE has been a net negative for the Republican Party.

47:13And you saw in Texas, members like soon to be members like Bobby Pulido, who ran around that Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic area. He ran on border security. James Tallarico that just won in Texas ran on comprehensive border security. There are Democrats that are coming to Congress that admit, yes, we do need secure borders, but we have to handle it in a humane way. I think that messaging resonated more with Latino voters than what they were seeing on the ground with Republicans. And look, with young men, I think young people in general, they're not beholden to one party. Just as they swung towards us, Hogan is right.

47:48They might just swing back towards Republicans. But I think that Trump lost some of the magic that he had when he was first running and he was on Joe Rogan and he was talking to these young men about being forgotten. They feel forgotten when you're focusing on foreign wars and not on the economic situation that a lot of young people are in. They are saddled with debt. They went to college. They thought that they would enter into a job market and they just want a party that will communicate to them about what their path forward looks like. And they're going to roll the dice with Democrats. And I'm happy about that.

48:17Hogan, the Drudge Report, which which has not been friendly to President Trump for several years now has on their on their homepage. It's it's President Trump and he looks like Donald Donald Duck and they're calling him lame Donald Trump talking about him as as a lame duck. You cannot ever underestimate President Trump. And I think we've all learned that. Right. The things he has done politically are incredible and no other politician has done that. That being said, can he do anything else in these next two years to sort of change the narrative and maybe win back some of the things he hoped would be part of his legacy?

48:50Yeah, I think so. Remember, after Bill Clinton lost his handle on Congress and Barack Obama did the same thing, he famously said he had a pen and a cell phone and he was going to do some executive orders. I think Donald Trump can do a lot of that. Listen, wrapping up the war would go a long way to getting people some relief on that at the pump. Obviously, prices would come down as well. You know, listen, I think elections are always about choices. And if Donald Trump can finish out his two years as strongly, I think, as he did his first two years, but then also make good on some more of the promises that he told the American people he would do, you're setting up a really good potential candidate on the Republican side to take that mantle, expand it even more, and deliver on the successes of the Republican promises.

49:40Listen, I don't think the American people are going to be keen on accepting a lot of the radical woke ideologies of the anti-American, the pro-socialist wing of the Democrat Party. But they're going to get a lot of news, a lot of airtime on what they're trying to do and where they're trying to take the country. Republicans need to stay the course. But also, you need to make sure that you listen to what the people are telling you. When you forget that and when you turn from that, you lose elections. Democrats know this because it did happen to them in 2024. There's a chance for Republicans here to right the ship.

50:14I think they're going to do it, but only time will tell. Yeah, overreach. Guys, I'm going to ask the same last question to both of you. Hogan, give me your top three contenders for 2028 in the wake of this blue tsunami on the Republican side. And then Yemisei, I'm going to ask you the same for the Democrats. But Hogan, you go first. I'm going to take Rubio off because he said if J.D. runs, he's not going to run, although I don't necessarily believe that at this point. I think J.D. is going to run. I think DeSantis is going to run from Florida. And I'd look for a dark horse like Sarah Sanders as well, just one re-election in Arkansas, very popular amongst the base.

50:51She may be a dark horse to run as well. Yamase, what about you? Well, Governor Andy Beshear, who is running the Democratic Governors Association and had a heck of a good night last night, is definitely going to run and should be good as a Democratic governor of a red state. and another Democratic governor of a red state that performed above standards last night, Josh Shapiro. I think he's going to run as well. And then we might see a senator down from Georgia that had a heck of a performance as soon as the polls closed, Senator John Ossoff. Yeah, Missy Hogan, we thank you so much for joining Top Story.

51:23This is a great conversation the next day after such a historic night. We appreciate it. When we come back and look at the historic night of first and the newly elected lawmakers and leaders breaking barriers across the country. That's next on the special edition of Top Story.

51:41Finally tonight, the historic first all across the country as Americans voted in a new class of leaders to shape the nation. Liz Kreutz has a look at some of the barrier-breaking wins. Across the country, a historic night of firsts. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms elected the country's first Black woman governor, invoking her enslaved ancestors as she declared victory. I visited the grave of Betsy Peake, my great-great-grandmother, who was born in 1845, 20 years before emancipation. I know I am standing on shoulders made of steel. Nevada, Wisconsin, and Florida also electing their first Black governors.

52:25WHILE IN TEXAS, CROWDS EXPLODING AS GINA HINOJOSA BECAME THE FIRST HISPANIC PERSON EVER ELECTED TO THEIR GOVERNOR'S OFFICE. I CAN'T HELP BUT THINK OF MY GRANDMOTHER, GRANDMA HINOJOSA, WHO USED TO TELL ME, NO TE DEJES. KNOW YOUR WORTH AND FIGHT TO DEFEND IT. CALIFORNIA ALSO MAKING HISTORY. Javier Becerra, the first Latino elected to lead the Golden State. And likewise in New Mexico, where incoming Governor Deb Haaland will become the country's first ever Native American woman to hold that title. Ohio, Minnesota, and Tennessee also electing their first women governors. And in the U.S. Senate, Abdul El-Sayed from Michigan to become the country's first Muslim senator, and Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, the first male senator to be openly gay.

53:19It's nice to know that love and truth prevailed tonight. Across the country tonight, a sea of new faces in a wave of political firsts. Liz Kreutz, NBC News. A historic night indeed. We thank you so much for watching Top Story. I'm Tom Yamas in New York. Stay right there. More news on the way.

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