Pub quiz showdown: Alphaville vs Unhedged

0:06Pushkin. Okay, listeners, be excited. This is a special edition of the Unhedged podcast. I'm Katie Martin and I'm the FT Markets Editor in London. Now, FT superfans may already be familiar with the FT Alphaville pub quiz, which was held in a real pub, sort of, last week. Now, we had so much fun that this week on the show, we're bringing the pub quiz to the Unhedged podcast and I will be your host. So, I expect you're wondering, listeners, just what the biggest brains in the FT are up to. Just how knowledgeable are they? How clever are they? Sadly, they weren't available, but I have assembled two other teams to compete for glory.

0:47We have, in the blue corner, in London, FT Alphaville in the form of Robin Wigglesworth and Alex Skaggs. I almost walked out when I had that big brain jab, but, you know, I'm looking forward to wiping the floor with our opponents. So we're going to stay. Fighting talk. And over in New York, we have the unhedged squad, Rob Armstrong and Ethan Wu. Say hello, guys. We're ready for total victory. Undefeated for 200 years. Let's go, America. One of the fun things about this is that I don't think that Americans really understand what pub quizzes are. No. So this is like a kind of podcast pub quiz. Yes.

1:22And listeners, let me tell you, it could go horribly wrong, but the rules are as follows. I have written 10 questions. My decision is final on the victor on each of these questions. So a question will go to each team in turn. the team that has received the question will have a minute timed on my phone very uh very high tech here to answer the question if they get it right they get one billion points pretty good huh and then we flip to the next team and then we decide who is the winner the loser has to write something very nice about the other team on their platform in the next few days does everyone understand the rules.

2:01I'm already looking forward to the unhedged note about Alphaville. Okay, well, you'll be delighted to hear then, Robin, that the first question goes to Team Alphaville. Orange juice futures now trade at about$4 per pound for the first time since they began trading in 1966. In percent, how much is the price up this year? Is it A, 27%, B, 48 % or C, 95 %? I know they're up a lot this year, aren't they, Alice? Yeah, yeah, I think a lot. That's kind of implicit in the question, Robin. If that was an option, then I would say D, a lot. Sorry. Yes, so how are we defining a lot? I looked at the chart.

2:44It definitely looked more like 95%. You looked at the chart. That's good. I have looked at the chart at some point this year, but it's lodged somewhere in the memory banks. Yeah, something about the weather in Florida probably means that they're up. this is me being very smart yeah this is our systematic investment process at work exactly what do you think 48 or 95 if it looked like 95 when you looked I remember it going up a lot essentially oh wow that's kind of interesting the training place is commodity right so it's kind of sexy and fun yeah we're going to say the number went up by a lot yeah by a lot 95 % 95%.

3:27Perfect with the timing. Okay, so you are saying that orange juice futures are so far this year up 95%. You are correct. Yes. A billion points, which is, I think, 10 US points. Yeah. According to the current exchange rate. Yes, exactly. That was a gimme. I'm lodging a complaint with the Olympic Committee. No complaints. No correspondence will be entered into. Is this how America won all those wars by launching complaints about some technical points? It's going to be a strongly worded letter, I tell you. Right then, question number two to Team Unhedged, Rob and Ethan. Now, to be clear, Alphaville has to shush while Unhedged is doing its question and vice versa.

4:12Yes, ma 'am. Quite liking being in charge here. Right. Team Unhedged, which of these recently listed stocks has fallen the furthest from its opening price? Birkenstock. Instacart or Birkenstock. I think it has to be Birkenstock. It's not. I think it's already given the wrong stuff. It's probably not ARM. Yeah, I don't think it's ARM. I knew there was going to be a Birkenstock question. I should have. Yeah, we should have prepped for it. Should have studied for this one. So between Instacart and Birkenstock, well, I think our systematic investment process, which one is the shittier company? Let's ask ourselves that for lack of knowledge.

4:54I think Instacart is the worst company, but I don't think that's helpful. God. I feel like Katie wants a question where the correct answer is Birkenstock. and on that basis I think we should go with Birkenstock. But maybe this is Rob Bate and then she's giving you a tempting answer. Okay, okay. We're going with Birkenstock, Katie. Taking the bait. You're going with Birkenstock and you are incorrect. The answer is... Was it Instacart? The answer is of course Instacart which is down like 40 % or something completely ridiculous. Arms off 10. Birkenstock's down 17. It was Bate. To be absolutely clear I wasn't going to bother asking a Birkenstock question It completely escaped my mind.

5:45And then when you mentioned it. Is this whole quiz just an exercise for you to torture me, Katie? That's what I'm starting to suspect here. Team Alphaville is fully one billion points to Hedge. One billion points. Yes. One billion points to Alphaville. Zero points to Unhedge. Okay. Tough. We'll get them in the second round. I'm glad I wore my Birkenstocks today. Just to taunt Rob. Okay. On to question three. And this relates to the fact that Robin Wigglesworth, although he very rarely mentions it, is in fact Norwegian. Are you not, Wiggo? I am. I am. I mean, honestly, bangs on about this every day.

6:22But so for that reason, you will no doubt know the answer to the following question in a heartbeat. The question is as follows. Who is older? His Royal Highness Crown Prince Harkon? Please advise on pronunciation of Norway. or Rob Armstrong?

6:43Wow. How old do we think Rob is? That's a great question. I would first like to know how to pronounce that name. Horkum Mungnes. Exactly. Horkum. Horkum. Just imagine you're the Swedish chef, but you sound cool. That's basically the Norwegian accent. You sound cool. Yeah, the cool Swedish chef. Okay, that sounds great. I'm not going to try. I fear you're not engaging with the substance of my question. Which is how old? Well, how old is the... I think he's a little bit older than me. So mid-40s, maybe the Cran Prince. Mid-40s. Rob Armstrong is like 500, 600 years old. Yeah. I feel like it's got...

7:19We got to go with Rob on this one. I think I see his Twitter picture, you know, shows he was in the Civil War, I think. He needed help from Ethan with his phone. You needed help 30 seconds ago. How about your phone just now? Yeah, but I'm old as well. I think Rob Armstrong is probably older, right? Yeah, that's my guess. Yeah, he has to be. So you're saying Rob? Yeah. The answer is indeed Rob, who is older than Crown Prince Hawkon? Hawkon. Hawkon. By a couple of years. Rob, I'm not going to read out your date of birth on the internet. You'll be pleased to hear. His Royal Highness and myself wear the same brand of adult diaper.

8:03so wow does it cost a lot to get them shipped from Norway okay question four goes over to the unhedged team on a similar note who is older Elon Musk or Rob Armstrong ooh I think it's Elon I think Elon's older yeah I think he's in his late 50s no he's not in his late 50s mid 50s mid 50s I think it's Elon Come on, Katie. Are you good at this? I'm thinking, for some reason, I think Elon Musk is 54. That sounds right to me. I saw the picture of him swimming. That was tough. Mind you, pictures of who swimming? There have been pictures of Rob Armstrong swimming in the weekend, I think. Which I remember quite clearly.

8:55Me too. If we're wrong and if he's younger than you, we can lodge the complaint that Elon Musk is surely older in every sense but the technical sense than Rob Armstrong. Okay, we're going with Elon Musk being the older one. Okay, I'll stop my timer and tell you, you are correct. Yes, yes. However, he's only older by one month. Really? Wow. Yeah, you're very close in age, actually. Wow. God. Make of that what you will. He looks bad, man. Yeah. I know. First of all, he looks like hell, and I'm richer than he is. Yes. Secretly. But who's got the most children wrong? That's true. He does have you beat there.

9:33He does have you beat there. Exactly. You're still in the single digits when it comes to children. Yes. I'll tell you who has you beat at the moment, and that is Team Alphaville, who are on 2 billion points. Oh, yes. Whereas Team Unhedged is on 1 billion points. Okay. In time. Let me just refresh my thing. Right. Alphaville's turn. How many stocks are in the S &P 500? Oh, God. 502? I have known this. Yeah, but it varies. It changes all the time. It's probably more than 500? Yeah, I think so. I always thought it was like 497 or something. It could be. I mean, is there, it's around, can we say around 500 give or take 10?

10:18No. No, God. See, prejudice against Team Alpha. I can't believe this. let's see I want to say 497 just because I feel like that was the answer at some point yeah well I'll go with you then I'll take the Norwegian questions you do the S &P 500 questions the S &P is a multinational index I take no responsibility for whether this is right or not okay so 497 okay we'd just like to enter our answer just to we think it's over 500 and we're going with 502? Okay, well, happily, you're both wrong because it's 503. 503. Somebody was like 300 % closer, though. Yeah. Because you took the first number I blurted out, Rob.

11:08But the question was not going to you, Rob, so, you know, you can't get this one. In Norwegian, we have an expression called nesten chit inge manafesten, which is nearly chitin the man off the horse. You just made that up. It's not a real word. No, Sally, that is a real Norwegian expression. And what does it mean? Nearly shoots no man off the horse. I see. You can't nearly shoot somebody out of the horse. Oh, fun times you have up there. Right. Okay. Next question over to Team Unhedged. And this will annoy Wiggo because I'm fairly sure he will know the answer. Venezuela has defaulted on its government debt more than any other country.

11:45How many times has it defaulted? Oh, man. How many times has Venezuela defaulted? this is an incredibly specific question you asked them an easy one we got a hard one this is just another strongly worded letter is coming to the authorities I think it has to be at least like 4 I think it's no lower than 4 I think it can't be 10 because if it's 10 if it's 10 the IMF would tactically nuke a country if it defaulted 10 times I think for no is there countries that have defaulted by do we want to edge it up a little bit five or six but I think it can't be more that five I think five is a safe yeah are we going with five sure for the big money we'd like to go with five Katie well you are wrong you should have gone with Wiggo would you like a guess nine the answer is eleven eleven Is that like every dozen years they default?

12:53Venny has got this on a lockdown. Yeah. Well, Argentina, you know, give them credit. I think they're the dark holes. They might default again very soon. 11 times? 11 times. Scores on the doors. It remains 2 billion points. This is why we don't invest in emerging markets, right? It's like, this is just like, what is that? Why is that even an asset class? 11 times. What, you don't have money in the UK? Isn't the UK an emerging market these days? There's no need for trolling the Brits. Yes. Scores on the doors, boys and girls, are 2 billion points to FT Alphaville, 1 billion points to Unhedged. So Alphaville's still in the lead.

13:31That's the end of round three. We'll be back shortly with round four. OK, we're back. Now we're going into the fourth round and the people speaking in my ears, who are real people and I'm not making up the voices, they tell me that this has to be worth 2 billion points. So for two billion points, Team Alphaville, tell me, when did the Bank of Japan last intervene to weaken the yen? You know this one. Are we talking the 80s, probably? No, actually, it might have been in the financial crisis. Yeah. Oh, that is a good question, actually. I was quite proud of it. I mean, also, sometimes we don't know if they're intervening, really.

14:09Yeah. Nonsense. But are we going to say the financial crisis, 2008? would it have been 08 or 09 more 08 more 08 i think because i mean things were still falling part in 09 but i think the really acute massive in russian to the end swiss francs stuff like that was in 08 yeah were there any like middle term crises where they would have done that that you remember no i think generally speaking since then it's been this of a soggy not during the Chinese market tanking? No, not to intervene to weaken the yen. Right, right, fair. Are we sure? Yes, so 2008. Team Unhedged, would you like a guess? I think it was the 80s.

14:55I'm going to go with whatever that thing was where Reagan got mad at them and the rest of the world ganged up on them and there was a big... The Plaza Accord? Yeah, sure. Well, you're all inexplicably forgetting the gigantic earthquake and tsunami that the investment is invented in 2011. See, I only have memory for pure financial events these days, not actual tragedies like earthquakes. It's a real world event. There was a real thing that happened and there was a big intervention. So again, scores on the doors, 2 billion points to Alphaville, 1 billion points to Unhedged, but Unhedged could potentially nudge back into the lead if it gets the 2 billion points available on the following question.

15:41Which singer refused 200 ,000 Bitcoin as payment for a gig in 2009? Taylor Swift, no. I mean - I feel like there was press coverage of this. Maybe I'm making sure - How many Bitcoin? 200 ,000. In 2009. It's a singer. Mm-hmm. Taylor Swift is a good guess, but I feel like she's a bit financially savvy. Yeah. I feel like she might have done it. Oh, taken the Bitcoin. She might have taken the money and traded it in some clever way. I'm just asking, do we need to think of someone stupider than Taylor Swift? Okay, someone stupid. That's like most of the singing world. Okay. Well, I don't... Universe of singers.

16:27Robin just had to pick a year. We have to pick... Okay, I think the thing that's good about Taylor Swift is a guess, is that we have a name. Like, what is another singer? We need a hangar. Okay, we got to go with Taylor Swift because we're out of time. That's all we got. That's all we got. Well, I have a guess. Yes. My guess is Mariah Carey. Oh, good guess. Damn it. She was married to a libertarian guy, right? I was wrong. Both totally wrong, but I do like how Americans' first answer to almost all questions is Taylor Swift.

17:04the correct answer is lily allen at the time one bitcoin was worth 0.0000099 dollars so this would have yielded her 200 altogether by november 2021 it would have been worth 13.6 billion who is Lily Allen okay she's a Brit that explains why no one knows who she is I'm rolling my eyes so hard she's married to that guy from Stranger Things that's right she lives in Brooklyn singer and actress she once gave a really good tip for naming my wife's lactation consultancy business on Twitter cool wow yeah i know what's that's my brush with fame what milkmaids what's going on this is taking a direction that i had not anticipated i have to say okay we are now moving on to the final questions and they are worth a massive three billion points each can you believe it that's a lot of points is it not okay so the scores as they stand ft alphaville is still in the lead with two billion points unhedged is lagging behind one billion points so it's still all to play for in in the final questions okay so the first one of those goes if i'm not mistaken to ft alphaville are you ready yes what color tie was mario draggy wearing when he uttered the words whatever it takes to preserve the euro i'm almost certain it was blue yeah that's blue was like i I remember we tried to auction it for an Alphaville quiz prize.

18:51Yes, that sounds right. Yeah, I remember we actually auctioned off a Draghi Says Relax t-shirt to the head of Fixing at M &G for charity. But the tie was what we really wanted. The Thai discourse, I remember. Yeah. But I don't remember the colour. There was a lot of Thai discourse and he was aware of it as well. Yes. Reliably informed. Yes, reliably informed. Is blue a dovish colour? I think it was for him I always thought that was more of a neutral thing Red is cut, green is But I think it was blue Are you forgetting that funny brown one he used to wear The browny purpley one Oh I'm forgetting that one Is the answer going to be browny purpley?

19:30It's not going to be obviously Because you just said that Eliminating one whole chunk of the color Specifically trying to push us away from blue now I'm just assuming that there is That it is a color Yeah it is a color We're going to say a color and the colour is blue. You are indeed correct. That was the easiest question yet. That was for three billion? Although I thought the answer was Taylor Swift. Not Birkenstocks. Yeah, I was something of a scholar of Mario Draghi's tie colours and the electric blue, whatever it takes, Ty, was his tie of action. He was going to do something dramatic. He always wheeled out the bright blue.

20:11Yeah. Ty, so well done for remembering that. Okay, listen. So unhedged, team unhedged, you are now playing for pride. You cannot win. However, you can get three billion points if you can answer the following question correctly. What type of brooch was Christine Lagarde wearing? They get a European question. They're Europeans. We get a European question. We're Americans. Since this doesn't matter, we're going to write the question. I don't even know what a brooch is. Taylor Swift is my answer. God damn it. Rob, you're a style me then. You should know this. I'm surprised you haven't written a column about it.

20:49Okay, fine. What type of brooch? What type of brooch was Christine Lagarde wearing on her inaugural post-meeting press conference? Are you looking for a material, a shape? Okay, because you don't know anything that doesn't happen in America, I'll give you a small clue. It's a shape that I'm thinking. Or even to be slightly more specific, it's an animal. Oh, what animal? Lion. Probably not a snake. Cat? I'm already thinking about what Alphabill is going to write about unhedged, about the crushing loss there. Okay. I have truly no idea. It was a dragonfly. Just guessing. I don't know. Oh, yeah. Fair guess.

21:30Okay. What was it? Can I guess? You can guess. Was it an owl? It was an owl. That is humiliating. What is this? What is this? I think this means She said I'm neither a dove nor a hawk My ambition is to be this owl Very wise Incredibly cringy But it gave us a crushing victory over our heads You don't get points No that's okay It's just a moral point Rob has a complaint to Lodge Everything about this quiz was unfair Everything from top to bottom This was a set up It had too much European content Katie Martin is going to roll into work tomorrow morning in a Ferrari wearing a fur coat. With that sweet, sweet Norwegian oil.

22:17So the winner by 5 billion points to 1 billion points is Team Alphaville. However, I would like to offer Alphaville the opportunity to play a winner takes all round where you can just spin the dice. There's one question, same question, goes to the two of you. I want to do it just for the suspense, but I also don't want to have to write anything nice about on edge. You don't want to have to write anything nice about on edge. No, I definitely don't want to write anything. Ethan, maybe, but Rob, that would be a little. Wimps. Yeah, let's do it. Let's give them a chance. Let's give them a chance. Okay, okay.

22:50So the winner takes all question has to be about something completely irrelevant. To wit, what is the current price of Dogecoin? Oh. Do we just throw our guesses? 29 cents? It's low. It's like far below a dollar and obviously the ones from there. but it's like 0.029. I think it's like something. You're going for 0.029. Yes. Then I have to defer to you. And they have to get it right to win everything. I mean, I'm just a bit balling, but I was looking at this in a different context a few weeks ago. Yeah, because you love it. You love it. We're just doing over-under on a third of a penny. Yeah. No, I think it's higher.

23:30I think it's a penny. I would guess it's a penny. Half a penny. We've just got to go higher than that. So you're saying 0.005? I think I want to give, don't, I think what you want, we want, let's round, let's agree to round to the nearest tenth of a cent. Because nobody's going to get it to the third decimal point. That's crazy. Okay. So Team Alphaville, in that case, are you taking 0.03? Do you think so? Do we get a chance to change our guess? Do we know the answer? So you had zero. So, okay, you're 0.03 and Team Unhedged is what? 0.01? Five. 0.05. Yeah, we'll go a little higher. Okay, 0.05. Well, in that case, Team Unhedged is the winner.

24:23Yes! That is what I'm talking about. You guys had a victory in your hands and you pissed it away. It's not. Listen, I have a linear utility function.

24:37Katie, I want that oil money back. Suckers! So the price of Dogecoin is 0.069. That's not the correct answer. Oh, right. It's true. We won directionally. I think double or nothing. It has to be the right number. that's a fair point I'm prepared to call this a tie it's an electric blue tie that's very gallant of both sides and I have to say I'm very impressed with your guesses I would have had absolutely no idea if I hadn't looked it up like how many zeros are we talking about here so I thought both teams did pretty well here I would say we anchored their guess of course so who's rating and also a real victory well you need to sort this out off air I don't know about you guys.

25:29I'm pretending this. I'm going to pretend this whole thing didn't happen. I don't know. You both have to write something nice about each other in the coming days. This has been a fun quiz. We should do more of these quizzes. Both teams, congratulations to you both. Congratulations on such granular Dogecoin knowledge. And we should do this again soon. And listeners, God love you for listening.

25:56Unhedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erschlap Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein We had additional help from Topher Forheads Cheryl Brumley is the FT's global head of audio Special thanks to Laura Clark, Alistair Mackey, Jacob Weisberg and Jess Trulian FT Premium subscribers can get the Unhedged newsletter for free A 30-day free trial is available for everyone else just go to ft.com slash unhedged offer. I'm Katie Martin. Thanks for listening.