Global Economic Forecast Dims, Ukraine Peace Talks, Pope Francis Lies In State

0:01A Massachusetts man runs a business making high-end board games in China. Or rather, he did. So we're in survival mode right now. What's the Trump administration doing to avoid the economic damage of the president's trade war? I'm Steve Inskeep with A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.

0:21Western European nations want more support for Ukraine. They're meeting today in London as the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire in Russia's invasion. How much territory is the United States pressing Ukraine to give up? And mourners lined up before dawn at St. Peter's Basilica to visit Pope Francis as he lies in state and pay their final respects. I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him. Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.

0:55We don't know how the U.S. will get out of a trade war, But the Trump administration jolted markets yesterday just by admitting the problem. The Treasury Secretary told business leaders that the U.S. and China need some way out of triple-digit tariffs. Multiple forecasts are calling for sharply lower economic growth. The International Monetary Fund is the latest. It tracks the world economy and sees economic trouble for the globe. For more on what this means in the U.S., we're joined by NPR's Scott Horsley. So, Scott, I mean, the U.S. economy seemed to be chugging right along before the president launched his trade war.

1:28How does it look now? Yeah, not so strong. The IMF lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. by almost a full percentage point as a result of that trade war. Businesses and consumers in the U.S. now have to pay an extra tax on almost everything we import. And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Grinchot, says that's going to lead to higher inflation, at least in the short run, and slower economic growth. For the United States, the tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily. Other countries are also taking a hit from Trump's tariffs.

2:06The IMF stopped short of predicting a global recession, but says it expects trade growth to slow sharply in the coming year. So what does this mean then for businesses here and also around the globe? It means a lot of questions. You know, we started this month with the president imposing very high tariffs on goods from all around the world. Many of those tariffs have since been suspended, but most imports still face a tax of at least 10 percent. And, of course, goods from China are facing tariffs of 145 percent. That has brought a lot of trade between the world's two biggest economies to a near standstill.

2:38I talked with Jonathan Silva, who runs a company in Massachusetts that manufactures high-end board games in China. He's got three or four truckloads of Finnish games that are basically stranded now because of those triple-digit tariffs. And his customers, like Target and Costco, have halted more than$16 million worth of orders in just the last couple of weeks. So we're in survival mode right now. It's really difficult overnight to be able to communicate to a consumer that what they expected to purchase at one price is now double in price or higher. This is the time of year when Silva would ordinarily be placing orders with Chinese manufacturers for games to be delivered before next Christmas.

3:17Instead, those plans are stuck in tariff limbo. A 30-day hold right now, hoping that cooler heads prevail and we come to a number that allows us to continue on with business and to bring these great items to families to enjoy. So Silva mentioned their cooler heads, Scott. Any sign of those cooler heads? Well, possibly. As you all mentioned, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has emerged as kind of the administration's good cop on trade. And yesterday, Bloomberg and others reported that Besant was telling investors he sees the current level of tariffs between the U.S. and China as unsustainable and suggesting there could be some de-escalation.

3:53That was welcome news on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 1 ,000 points. Markets were also probably relieved that Trump said after the closing bell yesterday that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As big a drag as this trade war is for the global economy, the IOS Curintia says it doesn't have to be that way. Growth prospects could immediately improve if countries ease from their current trade policy stance and promote a new, clear, and stable trade environment. That'd be good not only for businesses and consumers in the U.S.

4:27who want to buy stuff from China, but for American farmers and factories that want to sell their products around the world. All right. That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks a lot. You're welcome.

4:43Senior officials from several countries will meet in London today to talk of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. These talks will include the United States, but not the top diplomat. It will no longer involve Secretary of State Marco Rubio nor President Trump's special envoy, Steve Whitcoff. The U.S., you will recall, has wanted to go its own way in brokering a ceasefire, while Europeans have focused more on supporting Ukraine. And the Europeans take the lead in the meeting today. All right, joining us now to share some of the details about this meeting is journalist Willem Marks in London.

5:13So, Willem, who's hosting, who's taking part, and what's the goal here? Well, the talks will be hosted by the British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy. They'll include officials from the US, Ukraine, France, Germany. The most senior US official attending now will be President Trump's envoy for Ukraine, retired General Keith Kellogg. And really at the heart of these talks will be an attempt to knit together the sometimes kind of disparate European and American visions for how a peace roadmap could be built. The Europeans have, for the last couple of months, continued to really insist that support for Ukraine, whether that's military, political or economic, is going to be crucial to ensure that Russian President Vladimir Putin is forced to negotiate on more equal terms, shall we say.

5:53But members of the US administration have been briefing the media over the past few days that there are now options on the table, at least from their perspective, that would include the recognition by Ukraine of territory currently held by the invaders, Russia. Okay, now how have Ukrainians responded to that? Well, not well, as you might imagine. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out the possibility that Ukraine would, for instance, recognise, let's say, the Crimean Peninsula or parts of eastern Ukraine as Russian territory. Some of those were first annexed back in 2014.

6:24But there have also been some pretty surprising recent statements out of Moscow, meanwhile, with President Putin saying on Russian state TV he'd always, quote, looked positively on any peace initiatives and he hoped Ukrainian leaders would do the same. The Kremlin's chief spokesperson said those comments from the Russian president indicated a willingness to re-engage in direct talks with Ukraine about, at the very least, ending strikes on civilian targets. Okay, so then what's the United States' role in all of this? Well, you know, the absence of Secretary of State Rubio seems significant. Just last week in Paris, he'd said the Americans wanted discussions to move forward within days.

7:01Otherwise, there was a possibility the US would move on. Steve Witkoff, the White House has said, will be traveling to Moscow, not to London this week, for a fourth face-to-face meeting with Putin. And meanwhile, President Zelensky said that none of the potential ideas the U.S. administration has been floating in the media have actually been formally shared with him or his team. And so it's kind of unclear whether the U.S. is trying to stand between these two warring parties as a mediator might or instead to sort of create a peace framework almost unilaterally that Russia and Ukraine would be asked to simply accept.

7:33So if all that's unclear, then how clear are the chances of peace looking right now? Well, pretty obscure, frankly. President Putin's called the unilateral temporary ceasefire, you might remember, on Saturday evening for the entirety of the Easter weekend. But Britain's Defence Secretary John Healy told Parliament here in London yesterday that British military intelligence indicated there'd been no let-up whatsoever in those attacks over the Easter weekend. The Ukrainians cried foul and said there had been no ceasefire from Russia. It had simply been a Russian propaganda exercise. All right, that's journalist Bill Marks in London.

8:06Thank you very much. Thank you.

8:14The body of Pope Francis was moved this morning to lie in state in an open casket at St. Peter's Basilica.

8:25A choir sang and cardinals chanted in Latin as Pope Francis' body was carried in a red, velvet-lined open casket. For three days, mourners will be able to pay their respects. His funeral will be on Saturday, and hundreds of thousands of people are expected to attend. NPR's Ruth Sherlock joins us now from St. Peter's Square. Ruth, what's it like where you are right now? Well, people are waiting in their long, snaking line around the Vatican. Some are holding umbrellas to shield from the sun as they wait to pay their final respects to Pope Francis as he lies in state. I spoke with Margarita Harvey from El Salvador, has been waiting since a little after dawn, and she says it was always her dream to see the Pope.

9:05I want to see him alive, but I would love to at least see his body. But I'm praying for him. My soul is with him. Francis is lying in a single wooden casket, rather than the three nested coffins that's been traditional of previous Pope burials. And the coffin at St. Peter's Basilica is facing the church pews at ground level, not raised up. And this is typical of his papacy, of trying to keep a little of the ordinary, even in this very extraordinary job. Francis liked people and you can see that in how he moved through the crowds in this very square this past Easter Sunday Just the day before he died.

9:42He was in his potemobile without the bulletproof glass hugging members of the public The Vatican now says Francis was so weak that he'd actually worried about whether he could manage this But afterwards he reportedly told his personal health care assistant. Thank you for bringing me back to the square The funerals on Saturday seems like it's shaping up to be quite a big big event That's right. You know, this has the potential to be an important political moment, too. There may be some sensitive meetings that could happen on the sidelines. President Trump has confirmed he will attend, as will the Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky, which sets up the potential for them to meet for the first time since those tense public exchanges at the White House in March.

10:23This is going to be Trump's first foreign trip of his second term, and the first time he's in the same space as other key leaders like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, for example. The first time since he announced those controversial tariffs, the Italian government says over 100 foreign delegations are coming and that, like you said, some 200 ,000 people may attend. Yeah, 200 ,000 people. I mean, that sounds like a major logistical challenge. In this funeral, Pope Francis is also breaking with tradition in where he's choosing to be buried. Tell us about that. Exactly. Well, popes are traditionally buried here in the Vatican grottos beneath St.

10:57Peter's Basilica. but Francis has chosen to be laid to rest outside the Vatican at the church in an immigrant area of Rome, the Basilica of St. Mary Major, where he'd go to pray to the icon of the Virgin Mary before and after each trip out of Rome. I spoke with Ruben Martinez, a Spanish priest who'd arrived there to pay his respects to Francis.

11:20He's saying, you know, another journalist asked me if this is a sad moment. And I told him, no, this is a moment of hope. We're Christians, he told me. This is about Pope Francis' ascent to heaven. All right, that's NPR's Ruth Sherlock at St. Peter's Square. Ruth, thank you very much for all the details. Thank you so much.

11:44And that's Up First for Wednesday, April 23rd. I'm E. Martinez. And I'm Steve Inskeep. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR News. We hear it up first, give you three big stories of the day. And Consider This dives into a single news story and what it means to you. Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rafael Nam, Kevin Drew, Rylan Barton, Arzu Resvani, and also Jenea Williams. It was produced by Zia Butch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Damian Herring, and our technical director is Carly Strange.

12:16Join us again tomorrow.

12:24Thank you.