Hamas Leader Killed, 'Double-Hater' Voters, President Biden Visits Berlin

0:01The leader of Hamas, who is believed to be the architect of the October 7th attack on Israel, has been killed. Does the death of Yahya Sinwar create an opening for the war in Gaza to end? I'm Leila Faldil, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. With a new Democrat on the ballot, we check in with voters who once told us they disapproved of both President Biden and former President Trump. I am really 50-50 right now. More on how their views of the race have changed since Vice President Harris became the Democratic candidate. And President Biden is in Berlin today to meet with European leaders for the last time as president.

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2:14Yahya Senwar, the leader of Hamas terrorist organization who was responsible for the October 7th massacre, is dead. Yahya Senwar was the head of the Palestinian group Hamas and was Israel's number one most wanted man in Gaza. He's considered the mastermind of the attack last year that killed 1 ,200 people in Israel, according to the Israeli government, and sparked a response from Israel that's killed more than 42 ,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to Gaza health officials. The military says Sinwar was killed in Rafah in the south. We're joined now by Hadil Alshalchi in Tel Aviv. So we just heard from Israel's military spokesman.

2:51How did they wind up killing Sinwar? So the Israeli military has been after Sinwar for exactly a year since the attacks of October 7th, but then he ended up being killed by chance. The military said on Wednesday, forces fired shells at a building they'd seen three Hamas militants run into. The building collapsed, and that's when troops said they found the body later identified as Sinwar's, lying there in the rubble with a bulletproof vest, grenades, and surrounded with just over$10 ,000 in cash. You know, this is the latest high profile killing of a Hamas leader after two other key leaders were killed over the summer.

3:28And of course, it brings up that important question, who will now take over Hamas? His right hand man so far has been his brother, Mohamed Sinwar, who's involved in the military side of things. But there are also others, you know, who have been active outside of Gaza, representing Hamas and Qatar and Turkey for years, like Khalid Mish 'al or Hamas's deputy chairman Khalil Al-Hayye. And then Hamas confirmed Sinwar's killing on Friday, sounding defiant in a statement saying that Israel killing its leaders doesn't mean the end of the Hamas movement. And the group also called his death, quote, painful and distressing, but that Sinwar is now an icon for the Palestinian people.

4:04OK, now mention that you're in Tel Aviv, but what's the reaction there been like? Right. So on the streets here in Tel Aviv, I heard some celebration. There was clapping, cheering, music blasting. And then the families of the hostages held in Gaza said they hoped that this would finally open the door to releasing their loved ones. And then Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke last night, saying that his ultimate obligation was to bring back the remaining hostages. There's about 101 people left, dozens who are still believed to be alive. And then Netanyahu spoke to the people of Gaza.

4:34While this is not the end of the war in Gaza, it's the beginning of the end. This war can end tomorrow if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages. But in Gaza itself, the tone was mixed. We heard from Palestinians there who called Sinwar a martyr and mourned him. And then others expressed relief he was gone and had their own message for Netanyahu. OK, now that you've killed Sinwar, end the war. And let us go back to our homes. Yeah, right. I mean, that's the big question, right? I mean, will this now end the war in Gaza? Do we know anything about that? Right, exactly. So actually, that was the main message of President Biden last night.

5:11He said, quote, now is the time to move on. Basically, it's time to breathe new life back into the ceasefire talks, which have been stalled for weeks. So a former Israeli military intelligence officer told me yesterday there could be some optimism here. Michael Milstein said Israel and the U.S. have long argued that Senwar has been the main obstacle in reaching a deal. But some Hamas leaders based outside of Gaza have always been a little bit more willing to give and take. As for Netanyahu, he's been at the mercy of his right-wing partners who threatened they'll topple his government if Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza.

5:43So some Palestinian analysts are saying reaching a deal is in Netanyahu's hands. What does he want and what does Israel want? NPR's Odile Alshalchi in Tel Aviv. Thank you very much. You're welcome.

6:06Back in May, NPR put together a pair of focus groups with so-called double haters, voters that disapproved of both former President Donald Trump and President Biden. Now, a lot has changed since then. The race is now between Vice President Harris and Trump, and it's closer than ever. So we want to understand how those voters might make up their minds. NPR went back to these very same people this week to find out which way they're leaning. NPR correspondent Mara Eliasson joins me now. Hi, Mara. Hi there. So much has changed since May. Are there still people who consider themselves double haters now that they have an entirely different Democrat in the race?

6:43Yes, there are still a few double haters left. There are some true undecided voters. It's a tiny little sliver. In the battleground states, it's estimated that only about 6 % of people are truly undecided between the candidates or between going out and voting or staying home. And we put these focus groups together with the help of Rich Tao of Engageous and Sago Market Research. And these voters were all Trump to Biden swing voters. Most of them live in swing states. All 12 at the start were self-identified double haters. And it's important to remember that these focus groups are not scientific.

7:15They give us what we call anecdata. Polling gives us a sense of how many voters feel a certain way. Focus groups help us figure out why they feel a certain way. So of the 10 springtime double haters, by October, four are locked in or leaning Trump, five are locked in or leaning Harris, and one was still certain he wouldn't vote for either one and instead will write in a candidate. So how did Harris becoming the nominee change the way these voters see the race? Well, the people who are voting for her, compared with how they felt about Biden, they are generally much more positive, much more excited.

7:48None of the nine voters said that they would hold her accountable for any of Biden's missteps. So she clearly has been able to separate herself from Biden. But it's also true that the movement toward Harris seems to be more of an anti-Trump sentiment than a pro-Harris sentiment. Trump is much more clearly defined and in a negative way. She's a bit of a blank slate. And I thought it was particularly interesting to hear their responses when Rich asked them to say how they feel when they see Harris on TV. What's their emotion? Doubtful. Dumbfounded. She doesn't make any sense. Hopeful. Also hopeful, but louder than Sherilyn.

8:28And here they are when he asked the same question about Trump. Nervous. Apoplectic. Hopeful. Discouraged. We also heard them respond to how they'd feel if each candidate won. And it was clear that voters are less afraid of her. In other words, win or lose, they don't think Harris will undermine the election in any way. There's much more fear around Trump and political violence because he has repeatedly refused to say he would accept the results of any election that he didn't win. Now, all 12 of these voters were Biden voters in 2020, and at least four of them seem likely to go back to voting for Trump.

9:04So how big of a red flag is that for the Harris campaign? I think it's a very big red flag. Again, this is anecdata, but it's an example of how she hasn't been able to close the sale. She still isn't doing as well as Biden did back in 2020 at the same point in the race with key Democratic groups like African-Americans, Hispanics and young people. And Piers Mara Leisen, thank you so much. Thank you.

9:35President Biden is in Berlin today to meet with European leaders for the last time while in office. It's a farewell trip of sorts to a region that has been front and center in his presidency since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And it comes as the U.S. is poised to elect a new president while the outcome of the war in Ukraine remains uncertain. NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz joins us now to talk about Biden's trip. So President Biden is going to be joined by leaders from France, Britain and Germany. What's the significance, Rob? Yeah, America's relationship with Europe is stronger than ever, A, and that's largely due to the work that President Biden has done these past four years.

10:14After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Biden was a guiding force in showing support for Ukraine, for democracy in Europe, and he reinvigorated a transatlantic spirit that had been left languishing for years before he took office. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this and more about Biden's trip earlier this week in an address to the German parliament. Der amerikanische Präsident Biden steht auch für eine unglaubliche Verbesserung. In A, he told parliament he's grateful for Biden's cooperation over the years and that Biden quote stands for an incredible improvement in that cooperation between Europe and the U.S.

10:51And that was a not so subtle jab at former President Trump, who was a constant critic of Germany, especially in the EU as well over trade and regional security issues. So speaking of Trump, he's running for office again. So what do European leaders like Schultz think about the possibility of a second Trump presidency? Yeah, I'd venture to say here that for leaders in this part of Europe, they're very worried about this. In a recent survey by the German think tank, Kurvers Stiftung, 80 % of Germans polled say another Trump presidency would damage transatlantic relations. Trump has cast doubts on continued American support for Ukraine.

11:28He's even refused to say whether he wants Ukraine to even win against Russia. Should he become president, Europe would be forced to try and fill a gap in U.S. support for Ukraine. And simply put, they would not be able to fill that gap. In that scenario, Germany in particular would be hard-pressed to bolster its own security. It's in the process of trying to modernize its military, and it's doing that very slowly. The last time Trump held office, the former president mused about the U.S. leaving NATO. He ordered the Pentagon to withdraw 12 ,000 American troops from Germany. Biden later reversed that decision.

12:02But should Trump win, German politicians, I think, would be concerned about their country's own security, and they'd likely be forced to pick up the pace on rebuilding the country's military. And that would cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, at a time when Germany's economy is struggling. So what would that mean then for Germany's role in Europe? Yeah, I mean, most acutely it would mean that there would be even more pressure for Chancellor Olaf Scholz to leave office. He and his coalition government have historically poor public support at the moment. And with a national election coming next year in Germany, we're looking at a likely change in leadership here in Germany anyway.

12:36A Trump presidency could also help further fuel the rising popularity of far-right parties, not only in Germany, but throughout Europe. So it could have broad political implications throughout the continent. And one more thing really quick, Rob. Have they considered what a Harris presidency might mean? Would it be a continuation of what Biden has done with them? Yeah, they definitely, I think European leaders in this part of Europe definitely see Harris as a definite continuation of Biden's policies. And more importantly, and most importantly, continued support for Ukraine and its defense against Russia.

13:09All right, that's NPR's Berlin correspondent, Rob Schmitz. Rob, thanks. Thank you.

13:17And that's Up First for Friday, October 18th. I'm Amy Martinez. And I'm Layla Falden, here to remind you that Up First airs on the weekend, too. Ayesha Roscoe and Scott Simon have the news. It'll be here in the Speed or wherever you get your podcasts. And today's episode of Up First was edited by Hannah Block, Kelsey Snell, Nick Spicer, Lisa Thompson, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Paige Waterhouse, Nia Dumas, and Katie Klein. Our executive producer is Erica Aguilar. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott. Our technical director is Andy Huther. Join us again tomorrow.

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