Intense Strikes On Iran, Trump Approval Poll, Georgia Special Election Runoff

0:02Steve Inskeep:Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Tuesday would bring the most intense strikes across Iran.

0:08Rachel Martin:Now video from the Red Crescent shows rescuers in the rubble of what appear to be residential buildings.

0:14Steve Inskeep:I'm Leila Fawdell, that's Steve Inskeep and this is Up First from NPR News. A new poll finds a majority of Americans do not support U.S. military action in Iran. And the president's approval rating on the economy has hit its lowest point yet. What does that mean in a midterm election year?

0:33Rachel Martin:Also in Georgia, the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's vacant House seat is heading to a runoff. A Democrat had a strong performance and now faces a Republican who was endorsed by President Trump. What can that election tell us about the midterm voting? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

0:56Rachel Martin:This message comes from BetterHelp. International Women's Day is this March. Time to celebrate all women. The leaders, the caregivers, the hype friends, the how-do-you-do-it-all types. Women deserve to be reminded how much they matter, and that therapy offers a space to care for themselves. BetterHelp makes it simple by matching you with a qualified therapist based on your needs and preferences. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR for 10 % off. The last time the United States and Israel attacked Iran, they called it the 12-day war. The current war may need some different name because we have reached day 12 with no sign of the end.

1:36Rachel Martin:Iran is talking of imposing more pain in retaliation for the U.S. and Israeli attacks. Its government said they now consider banks and economic centers a target in the Middle East. This after Iranians say one of their banks was targeted. Pete Hexeth, the civilian head of the U.S. military, made a promise on Tuesday. Today will be, yet again, our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. That was yesterday. So how much damage is the U.S. doing? NPR's international correspondent, Ayah Batraoui, is in Dubai. Hi there.

2:08Steve Inskeep:Good morning.

2:09Rachel Martin:What have you learned?

2:10Steve Inskeep:Well, internet is cut across Iran, and many people are fearful of sharing what they're seeing, even in messages due to fear of retaliation from the government. But, you know, based on the information that is coming out from official statements and activist groups, We know that already more than 1 ,200 people have been killed across Iran. The Iranian Red Crescent Rescue Service also published a video overnight showing a residential area struck in the capital, Tehran, standing over the rubble of a building there. And people who've left Tehran through the Turkish border have been telling NPR they're fleeing because the sky is red from bombings.

2:40Steve Inskeep:And they have also reported multi-story residential buildings being flattened in Tehran. Now, in addition to homes, we've also seen damage emerging from centuries-old landmarks and palaces in Tehran and cities south like Ish-fahan, 300 miles south of Tehran. But, you know, the Pentagon and Israeli military are only confirming hits on military targets. And a new video from the U.S. military shows strikes on Iranian vessels yesterday, including 16 Iranian mine-laying ships near the Strait of Hormuz. You know, that's that narrow waterway that much of the world's oil was passing through.

3:11Rachel Martin:Oh, I'm glad you mentioned oil. I want to tell you in Dubai what's happening here in the United States. Gas prices have gone up sharply in the past week. People do notice. I was talking with somebody yesterday who said, you know, I don't follow politics, but they knew to the penny how much they'd been paying for gas. So that's the U.S. What's happening in energy markets in your part of the world and elsewhere in the world?

3:30Steve Inskeep:Yeah, so those prices are going up in the U.S. because those ships are stuck, unable to get through the Strait of Hormuz, but also because Iran has been attacking energy sites across the Gulf in response to this war. And the biggest oil refinery in the Gulf was actually just hit yesterday here in the UAE. Now, before that hit, it was capable of refining nearly a million barrels of crude oil a day. Now, that is an addition now to production cuts and suspensions we're already seeing in countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and other Gulf Arab states. And, you know, the cost of gas is not only rising in the U.S., as you mentioned, but also in places with fragile economies like Egypt and parts of Nigeria where fuel has gone up as much as 40 percent.

4:10Steve Inskeep:in some cities, sparking panic buying and long fuel lines there. In Thailand, people are also being asked now to take the stairs to save on energy costs. And so countries are now discussing releasing some of those emergency strategic oil reserves that they have in order to bring prices down.

4:24Rachel Martin:You know, I appreciate the facts that you've got, but what are the unknowns here, the things we don't know?

4:29Steve Inskeep:So one of the unknowns right now is about Mushtaba Khamenei. Now, he's the new supreme leader that was announced this week, but we've heard no public statements from him since his selection this week. And there are reports trickling out of Iran. He may have been wounded in the attack that killed his father, the former Supreme Leader, and members of his immediate family, but there's no way to independently confirm that. Now, also, we're struggling to get a clear picture of what's happening at bases where U.S. troops are in the Gulf. The White House was asked and confirmed that around 150 U.S. soldiers have been wounded since the start of the war, in addition to seven killed.

5:03Steve Inskeep:But it is increasingly difficult to report on these developments. There are censorship laws in Israel and restrictions on social media posts in the Gulf related to the war, but also satellite imagery is becoming restricted. Planet Labs, which is a commercial satellite imagery company used by many, announced a 14-day delay to the release of imagery over the region, including Iran, but also those bases where U.S. troops have been hit.

5:25Rachel Martin:And Pierre-Zia Batraoui, thanks very much for the update. Really appreciate it.

5:28Steve Inskeep:Thanks, Steve.

5:36Steve Inskeep:A new NPR-PBS News Marist poll finds President Trump is suffering politically because of the U.S. war with Iran.

5:44Rachel Martin:Americans, including some in Trump's base, are skeptical of a prolonged involvement. NPR's senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here. Domenico, good morning. Hey, good morning. What are Americans saying?

5:56Ayesha Rascoe:Well, we surveyed almost 1 ,600 people with our NPR-PBS News Marist poll over the past week. We found that 56 % say that they are against the military action, just 36 % approve of Trump's handling of the Iran war, and 55 % say that they see Iran as only a minor threat or no threat at all. And that mirrors Trump's low approval ratings that we found on other issues. You know, Trump has just a 40 % approval on immigration, which had been a strength of his. It's only 38 % overall. And it's even worse on the economy. is just 35 % now. That's the worst we've ever seen for Trump. And despite this war, we know that people have been saying for a long time that the economy is their top concern.

6:39Rachel Martin:If you just do the math, it would seem that there must be some Republicans who voted for Trump who are not happy with his economic performance.

6:46Ayesha Rascoe:There are some, but overall, Republicans are largely sticking with Trump. I mean, eight in 10 approve of the job he's doing on the economy, for example, as well as his handling of Iran. The reality is, look, we've seen some influencers in the magosphere speak out against the war and say that Trump is doing the opposite of what he promised during the presidential campaign. But that's not the majority of rank and file Republicans, never has been, and probably never will be. You know, what we are seeing when it comes to shifts is with independents, critical group, especially in these midterm elections, a group that Trump did well with in 2024 in the presidential election.

7:22Ayesha Rascoe:But they've been aligning with Democrats on nearly every issue in the past year, including on this war. In the survey, 61 % of independents are against the U.S. involvement in Iran.

7:32Rachel Martin:Okay, that's significant. But you're saying eight of 10 Republicans, if not more, are still with the president. Is there anything that would change that?

7:39Ayesha Rascoe:Maybe. I mean, you can imagine that if, you know, the U.S. put in ground troops to try and install a new government, stayed for a long time, experienced significant casualties, you'd probably see these numbers move in a more negative direction for Trump. You know, the U.S. has already seen seven service members killed after a retaliatory strike by Iran and more than 140 injured. But look, after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, Americans have been very skeptical of prolonged U.S. military involvements overseas. The Trump administration knows this. I mean, Trump and people like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been out there trying to tamp down the idea of nation building or a war that would go on for a while.

8:18Ayesha Rascoe:Well, even that word war is at issue. I mean, we've seen Trump use the word, quote, excursion multiple times to describe what's happening. And it's hardly an excursion.

8:26Rachel Martin:But when we think about the election that's coming up this fall, Domenico, ultimately, it seems the vast majority of people go back to their partisan corners, even if they're not happy with their party or their candidate. And they vote the way they voted. We have one close election after another. So what does this mean for the midterms?

8:41Ayesha Rascoe:Yeah, and obviously the key is who shows up. Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm. And in our poll, Democrats have a nine point advantage in our poll on the question of which party's candidate are you more likely to vote for in your district? Again, with the economy being the top concern, waging war overseas certainly doesn't help Trump make a case that he's focused on the economy and that it's his top concern. He's going to try to do that today with stops in Ohio and Kentucky where he's going to talk about the economy, but he rarely stays focused on that. And making matters worse for him, the war has already driven up oil and gas prices, as you've been talking about.

9:15Ayesha Rascoe:Democrats started with an advantage in the election because of prices in the economy. Controversies around Trump's immigration policies, the Epstein files, have only given Democrats more fodder.

9:24Rachel Martin:NPR's Domenico Montanaro, thanks as always. You're welcome.

9:34Steve Inskeep:The midterms are months away, but there are some election results this morning. Tuesday's special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress will head to a runoff. None of the 17 candidates earned more than 50 percent of the vote. That includes President Trump's pick to replace Green, District Attorney Clay Fuller.

9:51Rachel Martin:Mr. Fuller will be in that runoff next month facing a Democrat, Sean Harris. Harris raised more than$4 million and significantly overperformed compared to when he challenged Green a couple of years ago. But this is still a red district, so with just one Republican opponent, that Republican has the advantage. NPR's Stephen Fowler is in Georgia and has been reporting on this race. Hey there, Stephen. Good morning. I'm trying to think about how this fits into the broader political narrative. Marjorie Taylor Greene, huge Trump supporter, fell out with him. Trump turned against her. She resigned. Was the race about that yesterday?

10:26Rachel Martin:Well, all of the Republicans, for the most part, indicated they would be a much lower profile pick in Washington than Greene. She was vocal in her support for Trump and the eventual displeasure. Clay Fuller, he raised a lot of money. He was polished on the campaign trail, called himself a MAGA warrior when Trump visited the 14th congressional district earlier this year. Trump's still the most popular figure in Republican politics. He's reshaped the party in his image. At the same time, you are increasingly seeing Republican voters feel comfortable acknowledging his choice isn't the only one. Although given that it's such a red district, why would Fuller not have gotten 50 percent?

11:03Rachel Martin:Why would he not have won outright? Well, 17 candidates on the ballot included Democrats, Libertarian, and Independent, and it was a lower turnout special election, so it doesn't take much to alter the margins there. That said, Sarah Callas at Georgia Public Broadcasting talked to voters who said Trump's pick wasn't the best embodiment of America First or MAGA to them. That was Colton Moore. He's one of the most conservative lawmakers in Georgia's state legislature. But also like we've seen over the last decade of Trump endorsements, pretty much Everyone aligns with the president, and sometimes it's about who he thinks is more likely to win.

11:36Rachel Martin:But yeah, I'm thinking about a nuance here. Trump voters stick with Trump no matter what he does. Very, very loyal, as we know, over the years. Sometimes his endorsement means a lot, and he can crush someone he doesn't like. Sometimes his endorsement seems to mean nothing. Any sense of how it's shaping up in 2026? After last week's election, Trump's campaign political director, James Blair, posted online that everyone Trump endorsed either won outright or advanced to a runoff, and that was true in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, but many of those were uncontested primaries or there were no serious challengers.

12:11Rachel Martin:That's also the same for yesterday in Mississippi. But one notable result to me was North Carolina's U.S. Senate primary. Trump's handpicked leader of the Republican National Committee and handpicked choice to represent the party in one of the top Senate races, Michael Watley, only got 60 percent in the primary. So unlike other races and places, his seal of approval could not clear the field. And it's something to keep an eye on in the competitive general election there. Before we even get to the general election, we've got this runoff like the one in Georgia and also one for a Senate seat in Texas, where Trump has not endorsed at all, as I understand it.

12:44Rachel Martin:Well, Trump teased he would quickly make a pick last week between Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Kim Paxton, but it hasn't happened. One reason, he also said the other person should drop out, and both Cornyn and Paxton said that ain't happening. Another reason, voters won't make their choice there until May 26th. Here in Georgia, Trump hasn't weighed in on the Republican Senate primary to take on incumbent Democrat John Ossoff either. There are two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter, along with former college football coach Derek Dooley that are all running somewhat neck and neck in polling.

13:18Rachel Martin:But the most popular choice for voters, and for Trump right now, is undecided with months left to go in the race. Okay. NPR Stephen Fowler, thanks so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you. Hey there, we know your mornings are busy, and our job is to help you start the day informed rather than overwhelmed. If you find this program helpful, you can take a moment to leave us a rating or review in your podcast app. It matters. One listener recently said our concise format helps them avoid the stress of doom scrolling. By leaving a review, you are helping others find a more balanced way to start the day.

13:55Rachel Martin:Thanks for listening.