Iran Negotiations Drag, New Inflation Report, Sexual Abuse at Elite School

0:02Negotiations to end the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are dragging on, and that may be Iran's strategy. Iranian media is tracking President Trump's falling popularity. How much are the midterm elections influencing Iran's negotiating tactics? I'm Leila Fodil, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. New data about the cost of living in the U.S. comes out this week. It is expected to be rising faster than wages. What can the Federal Reserve do about it? Plus, a new report reveals decades of sexual misconduct at an elite art school in Michigan. Some 70 allegations of sexual abuse against students by nearly 50 adults from the 1950s to the 2010s.

0:44How did this happen at such a prestigious institution? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

0:55This message comes from Charles Schwab with their original podcast, Choiceology, hosted by Katie Milkman, an award-winning behavioral scientist and author of the best-selling book, How to Change. Choiceology is a show about the psychology and economics behind people's decisions. Hear true stories from Nobel laureates, historians, authors, athletes, and more about why people do the things they do. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash podcast or wherever you listen. This message comes from Midi Health. CEO Joanna Strober shares why they started a virtual care platform for women in paramenopause and menopause.

1:34Our goal at Midi is to make sure that all women have access to really expert care, starting around 35 and 40, making sure that they get access to all the things that can help them thrive as they're growing older. Midi Health, committed to helping women in midlife with paramenopause and menopause care, accessible via telehealth visits at joinmidi.com. Tehran has laid out tough conditions for the U.S. to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which may mean the talks drag on much longer. Some experts say that could be a deliberate strategy to prolong negotiations so that President Trump goes into midterm elections even more unpopular than polls show he already is.

2:15To understand this thinking better, we're joined by NPR's Hadil al-Shalchi in Istanbul. Good morning. Good morning. What is Iran saying it wants in order to make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Yeah. So we know that the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement over the weekend saying that Iran would only open the Strait of Hormuz, that key global waterway, if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade as well as sanctions. He said that the U.S. military must withdraw from around Iran, pay it reparations for war damages, release frozen Iranian assets, and end its attacks.

2:50Now, in the deal itself that Iran is currently negotiating with Oman, Iran has banned any U.S. or Israeli ships from moving through the strait and says that Iran will charge a fee and impose fines of up to 20 percent of the cargo value if those conditions are broken. And the White House has yet to comment on those Iranian demands. Now, these conditions, just several of them sound like something the U.S. just would never agree to. What's Iran's strategy here? Well, the conversation inside Iran is very much about President Trump's vulnerability ahead of the midterms. Iran is very aware of the U.S.

3:25political discourse. Iranian media tracks Trump's polling rates. It discusses how the Democratic Party's base is shifting. For example, a news agency closely tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard published an article entitled The Iran War and the Start of Trump's Political Decline, outlining Trump's drop in popularity and the dilemma he faces if he continues the war. I spoke to Asla Aydin Tashbash, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who's been following the talks. She says that Iran wants to make clear to Trump that even if they can't defeat the U.S. militarily, they have other ways. They can drag this out, that they are resilient, and therefore or they want to have a stronger hand than they normally would in Hormuz negotiations.

4:09And so, like you said, Iran is keeping those demands as maximalist as possible and trying to push any nuclear talks further into the future. Iran has said maybe up to four months from now even. And that could force Trump to go into midterms with no Iranian deal, a weakened economy, and an angry base that disapproves of the war. Could this backfire, though, for Iran? Playing this long game doesn't come without risk. The U.S. has dealt Iran major blows in infrastructure and military. And if Iran doesn't strike a deal with the U.S. soon, it can risk even more internal unrest as the economy continues to fail in Iran.

4:44On Sunday, Trump said to Axios, quote, we are low keying it and compared it all to a chess game. He said that the U.S. was watching Iran's huge inflation. But Aydin Tashbash says that Iran and the U.S. have been thinking about each other for half a century and know each other's Achilles' heel. And for Iran, there's president. The Iran hostage crisis of 1979 essentially cost Jimmy Carter the presidency. Iran wants to use this time, use their leverage, but also the midterm calendar, for a stronger agreement that establishes their sovereignty over Hormuz. Trump, however, she says, has not been studying Iran.

5:20She says his administration has a disdain for Washington experts and policymakers, people who would have probably told Trump not to go to war. And PR's Hadil El-Shalchi in Istanbul. Thank you, Hadil. You're welcome.

5:41We're going to get some new information this week about the cost of living. It's likely to confirm what most people already know. Gasoline and groceries are more expensive than they'd like. And that wouldn't be so bad if wages were keeping up with inflation. But for most people, they are not. NPR's Scott Horsley is here with a preview of this week's economic data. Good morning, Scott. Good morning, Laila. Let's start with that inflation report, which comes out on Wednesday. What's the expectation there? The report is expected to show that consumer prices in July were up about 3.4 percent from a year ago.

6:15That would be a slightly smaller annual increase than we saw in June. But look, inflation is still uncomfortably high. Kevin Hassett, who runs the National Economic Council at the White House, acknowledged that pain point in an interview this weekend with CNN's State of the Union. I go to the grocery store, I do the shopping, and I keep an eye on prices every week. And there's stuff like the price of beef that's still really, really high and very problematic for people. And we've still got a lot of work to do. And now the job market is also showing some signs of weakness. Last week we learned that employers cut 23 ,000 jobs in July, and more than a quarter million people dropped out of the workforce last month.

6:53Employers are not having to pay as much to attract workers these days. Average wages were up just 3.2 % over the last 12 months. So when prices are going up faster than wages, it's no wonder a lot of people feel like they're falling behind. Now, the Federal Reserve has long promised to bring inflation under control, but it's still above the Fed's target of 2%. Yeah, the Fed is now in a tricky spot. Its usual tool for fighting inflation is to raise interest rates. But, you know, that doesn't do a lot to lower the price of gasoline, which is up because of the war with Iran. The AAA says the average price of regular gas is just over$4 a gallon.

7:28It has come down in recent days, but it's still about a buck a gallon higher than it was when the U.S. started this war. At its last meeting in July, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rates steady. Investors were kind of expecting a rate increase at the next Fed meeting in September, but that's now not as clear with the job market looking a little shakier. Trump has repeatedly said he wants the Fed to lower interest rates. Given what's happening with inflation, how likely is that? Well, it doesn't look very likely in the near term unless the job market weakens more. And here's the thing. While the Fed sets short-term interest rates, longer-term borrowing costs are generally set by the bond market.

8:06And those rates have been going up, not down. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has climbed to nearly 6.7%. And that's a real drag on the housing market. Home sales were down in June. We're going to get the July home sales numbers tomorrow. And they're also likely to look weak. Speaking of the Federal Reserve, President Trump is trying again to fire one of its board members. What's he doing now? Yeah, Trump originally tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook last year. His attack dog, William Pulte, had accused Cook of mortgage fraud, although Cook denies any wrongdoing. And so far, courts have allowed her to remain at the Fed.

8:43Even the Supreme Court, which has given this president broad latitude to fire other government officials, said the Fed is a special case. The central bank is designed to be insulated from political pressure so it can make tough economic decisions. But Trump's not giving up. Last week, the White House sent Cook a letter demanding that she answer those mortgage fraud allegations. Her attorney says the allegations are baseless, and he promised to keep fighting to protect her job. And Pierre Scott Horsley, thank you, Scott. You're welcome.

9:19Convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein allegedly found some of his earliest victims at an elite art school in Michigan, Interlochen Center for the Arts. A new report shows that the abuse did not start or end with Epstein. And a warning for the next few minutes, you'll hear a detailed description of sexual abuse. NPR's Ava Berger has read that report and spoken to a victim and joins me now. Good morning, Ava. Good morning, Leila. I remember the allegations that surfaced about Epstein and this school. What's happening now? Well, it goes much deeper than most people might have thought. An independent report has revealed decades of sexual misconduct.

9:58Two years ago, Interlochen hired an outside law firm to look into allegations of abuse. That was prompted by a former student coming forward with an allegation from the 1970s. The numbers are staggering, Layla. Some 70 allegations of sexual abuse against students by nearly 50 adults from the 1950s to the 2010s. None of those adults still work at Interlochen and 17 of them are dead. Interlochen says that today the school has extensive safety measures to protect students. But the big question is still there, Layla. How could this happen? This is a school that is prestigious with alums like Chapel Roan and Josh Groban.

10:37The report's findings offer us some clues. In many cases, it says adults were able to meet alone with students. At the same time, the children at the school had limited communication with their families. They were vulnerable because of their age, sexual identities, and lack of experience. And some were scared to report their abuse. I mean, those numbers, 70 alleged victims, 50 adults that may have been involved. You spoke to one of the victims, right, Ava? What did he tell you? Yeah, he spoke to Paul Bush. He's sharing his experience publicly for the first time with NPR. He attended the boarding school starting in 2004.

11:11Two months after he turned 16, he was sexually abused by his ballet teacher. Bush told me that he was at the teacher's house with another student when the teacher reached into his pants and molested him under a blanket. I mean, my heart was like beating out of his chest. And I think that's when I was really like, I froze. He has spent 21 years reckoning with the abuse at the school, a place that was supposed to be safe for him. Bush's experience reflects some of those same themes from the report. He was living away from his parents. He said he wanted more than anything to be a professional dancer, and he revered that same teacher who harmed him.

11:47When Interlochen released the report, they named that teacher Thomas Clower. He's the only living staff member that Interlochen named who's accused of misconduct, and that's because he pleaded guilty. According to court records obtained by NPR, Clower pleaded guilty to attempted fourth degree criminal sexual conduct, a misdemeanor, and was sentenced to 90 days in jail. He was added to a sex offender registry and Interlochen fired him. Did Paul Bush say that he got the support that he needed from the school at the time? And what did he say about this report that's coming out now? Well, Bush went on to spend two more years at the school, and he said he never received counseling and doesn't remember anyone from the school asking if he was OK.

12:28Because of that, he said the report and the school's response to it, it's just not enough for the victims. They get to do the story, they get to edit, and then they get to present it, and then they get to say case closed. That is completely unacceptable. Because guess what? My life is still open. Interlochen wouldn't speak specifically to Bush's case, but they apologized for the harm that community members experienced. As for Thomas Clower, the man who pleaded guilty to abusing Bush, he was teaching youth ballet as recently as last month, according to social media posts. Clower did not respond to our requests for comment.

13:04Wow, thank you for that reporting, Ava. We really appreciate it. Thank you, Layla. You can read more about that story on NPR.org.

13:20We have one more story before you go. 50 years ago, Congress set out to protect coal miners from black lung disease. Today, it's back at rates not seen in half a century. These guys are being treated like disposable widgets, not human beings. And we're watching them die right before our eyes. Why coal miners in Appalachia are getting sicker faster. Listen now to the Sunday story right here in the Up First podcast.

13:51And that's Up First for Monday, August 10th. I'm Leila Faldil. And I'm Amy Martinez. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ali Schweitzer, Arzu Razvani, Miguel Macias, Kara Platoni, and Merit Kennedy. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Milton Guevara. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hines. Our technical director is Zach Coleman. Join us again tomorrow.

14:36This message comes from Charles Schwab with their original podcast, Choiceology, hosted by Katie Milkman, an award-winning behavioral scientist and author of the best-selling book, How to Change. Choiceology is a show about the psychology and economics behind people's decisions. Hear true stories from Nobel laureates, historians, authors, athletes, and more about why people do the things they do. Download the latest episode and subscribe at schwab.com slash podcast or wherever you listen. This message comes from Capella University. That spark you feel? That's your drive for more. Capella University's FlexPath learning format lets you earn your degree at your pace, without putting life on pause.

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