Iran War Escalates, Kurds Stay Out, Global Shipping Crisis

0:00Daniel Estrin:This message comes from Easy Cater, making it easy for organizations to order food for meetings and events from favorite restaurants, set up meal programs for their employees, and manage food spend all in one place at EasyCater.com. Israel bombed Iran's oil facilities over the weekend, causing black rain to fall over the capital, Tehran.

0:22Rachel Martin:A senior Israeli official tells NPR's Daniel Estrin Israel expects to defeat Iran in about three weeks. I'm Michelle Martin. That's Steve Inskey.

0:30Daniel Estrin:And this is Up First from NPR News. One of the groups that could rise up against Iran's government is ethnic Kurds. Many live in western Iran. Others live across the border in Iraq. But an Iraqi leader tells NPR they are, quote, not guns for hire. So what is their role in the Middle East war?

0:49Rachel Martin:Also, the war is blocking traffic through one of the world's most critical shipping lanes. Tankers and container ships are not passing through the Strait of Hormuz. and a global energy crisis is growing. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

1:12Daniel Estrin:This message comes from Rince, who knows that greatness takes time. So does laundry. So Rince will take your laundry and hand deliver it to your door expertly cleaned. And you can take the time pursuing your passions. Time once spent sorting and waiting, folding and queuing, now spent challenging and innovating and pushing your way to greatness. So pick up that Irish flute or those calligraphy pens or the daunting Beef Wellington recipe card and leave the laundry to rinse. Rinse. It's time to be great.

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2:18Daniel Estrin:This message comes from EasyCater, making it easy for organizations to order food for meetings and events from favorite restaurants, set up meal programs for their employees, and manage food spend all in one place at EasyCater.com.

2:32Rachel Martin:Here's a big question hanging over the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran. How long will this war last?

2:39Daniel Estrin:That question is becoming urgent as the war begins to affect the global economy. Israel escalated the war over the weekend, bombing oil facilities, The disruption of shipments from multiple nations has sent the price of oil soaring. And Iran shows no sign of giving in after choosing a new supreme leader over the weekend.

2:55Rachel Martin:A senior Israeli military official spoke with NPR's Daniel Estrin about how Israel views the prospects for ending the war. Hey there, Daniel.

3:03Steve Inskeep:Hi, Steve.

3:03Rachel Martin:Okay, so what is the Israeli timeline?

3:06Steve Inskeep:Well, just as we're speaking here, you might hear the alarms. We are getting advance notice on our phones that an Iranian missile is on its way to Israel. So we have a few minutes now to speak before the air raid sirens will go off. But I'll tell you that Israel is expecting that it needs about three weeks to achieve its goals in Iran. That's what a senior Israeli defense official told me this weekend. This person is in the military's operations directorate. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss Israel's military plans. But he says the goal is to decimate Iran's army, navy, military industries.

3:44Steve Inskeep:and Israel also realizes that President Trump could just end the war at any point. So the U.S. is not giving a timeline on how it sees the war and how long it would take, but we do know that the U.S. has not been happy with Israel's targeting of the Iranian oil depots this weekend.

4:00Rachel Martin:And Daniel, of course, you're going to move when you need to to be safe. Don't worry about us at all, but glad you're with us for another moment. Sounds like there's a little bit of daylight between the U.S. and Israel here. But why did Israel target Iran's oil facilities? Pretty dramatic.

4:14Steve Inskeep:Yeah, well, Israel said that Iran was using that oil to fuel Iranian missiles launched at Israel. But there's also civilian infrastructure we're talking about. U.S. officials have been displeased with the extent of the damage that Israel caused, you know, those skies that were blackened and the oily raindrops that dropped onto Tehran. So I heard from a person briefed on the matter, not authorized to speak publicly, that the U.S. was not pleased with the extent of that damage. Even Senator Lindsey Graham, who's close to Prime Minister Netanyahu, tweeted publicly, Israel, be cautious about your targets because Iran's oil economy will be needed when Iran's regime collapses.

4:51Rachel Martin:Or Graham hopes it will collapse, although the Iranians seem to be showing what they would consider to be resolved by choosing a supreme leader with the same name as the old supreme leader.

5:01Steve Inskeep:That's right. Iran has appointed Mushtaba Khamenei to be the new supreme leader. He's the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israel on day one of the war. And the son is seen as even more hardline than the father was. But Iran has sent a message as well this weekend that it can exact a painful price around the region, not just Israel. We saw Iran launch a missile with a dangerous cluster bomb warhead that hit an apartment building here in Tel Aviv, just a few minutes drive from me in Tel Aviv. and attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia took place this weekend as well.

5:37Steve Inskeep:So we're seeing the Gulf get dragged into this conflict as well. They've been very hesitant to take part in the war. So we're going to have to see where that goes.

5:45Rachel Martin:Okay. NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Tel Aviv. And Daniel, be sure you're ready to move if you need to in the next few minutes. Appreciate your insights.

5:53Steve Inskeep:You're welcome.

5:54Rachel Martin:Our next report on the war takes us to the western border of Iran, and it helps to get the geography down.

6:00Daniel Estrin:Okay, so try to picture this. Ethnic Kurds live on both sides of the border. On one side, the Kurds are part of Iran. On the other side, Kurds control their own region of Iraq. Some Iranian armed opposition groups have been based on the Iraqi side for decades. The U.S. has talked of encouraging those Kurds to attack Iran. In recent days, President Trump has suggested that he was for it, but then said he is against it.

6:22Rachel Martin:NPR's Jane Araf is on the Iraqi side of the border in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. And she spoke with the deputy prime minister there, Khoubad Talibani, on Sunday. She's in the city of Suleymaniyah. Hi there, Jane.

6:36Nina Totenberg:Hi.

6:36Rachel Martin:Okay, so what does the Iraqi Kurdish leader say about these Iranian Kurdish groups who seem to live on his territory?

6:44Nina Totenberg:Well, as you know, the Kurds have long been strong U.S. allies, including the fight against ISIS. Now, this was Talibani's first interview with Western media since the start of the war, and he wanted to make clear that neither Iraqi nor Iranian Kurds here would be part of the fight. Let's listen.

7:02Ayesha Rascoe:We have explained maybe some of the flaws behind the thought of using Iranian Kurds as the tip of the spear to launch any potential uprisings within Iran.

7:15Nina Totenberg:Talibani is deputy prime minister for the entire Kurdistan region. He says his brother, Bafal Talibani, who's head of the party that controls this part of Iraqi Kurdistan, spoke with Trump last week and relayed this message.

7:29Ayesha Rascoe:Our forces would not get involved under any circumstances. This is not our war. And we've made that very clear.

7:37Nina Totenberg:Talibani points out that in a country the size of Western Europe with 90 million people, Iran and multiple ethnic groups, chaos would be disastrous.

7:48Rachel Martin:Appreciate that statement that Iraq is the size of Western Europe. You realize what it would take to invade and take over such a place. I want to explain further where you are. The Kurdistan region of Iraq broke away from the Iraqi government many years ago, but it's still part of Iraq. How vulnerable is it to getting involved in the war, whether it wants to or not?

8:07Nina Totenberg:Well, it is definitely squeezed in the middle. On one side, there's Iran. And on the other side, the pro-Iranian Iraqi government. U.S. military bases in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region, have been the most heavily hit by Iran and Iran-backed Iraqi militias. But Suleymaniyah province, where we are, has also been attacked by drones and missiles. Here's what Talibani said about those Iraqi attacks.

8:32Ayesha Rascoe:These are groups that are paid by the state firing at us. What's going on here?

8:38Rachel Martin:Has Iran been in contact with the Kurds during this war?

8:42Nina Totenberg:Yes, he says the last time was just a few days ago when a high-level delegation alarmed by news reports that the U.S. was pressing for armed opposition groups here to cross the border came from Tehran.

8:55Ayesha Rascoe:They were trying to understand the realities of this reporting, whether or not we're about to invade Iran. And we made it very clear, no, we have no interest and there's no means to, and that is not our policy.

9:09Nina Totenberg:Talibani says there's a misconception in the U.S. about the Kurds.

9:13Ayesha Rascoe:We always get labeled we're good fighters. Every U.S. president, maybe since Bill Clinton, in some form or fashion, talked about how good a fighter we are. But we're not guns for hire.

9:26Nina Totenberg:He says they just want to govern their region, build the economy, and live in peace.