Iran War Expanding, Khamenei Successor, China Mediates Middle East War

0:00Rachel Martin:This message comes from Easy Cater, making it easy for organizations to order food for meetings and events from favorite restaurants, set up meal programs for their employees, and manage food spend all in one place at easycater.com. Good morning. Is Up First part of your routine? In a recent review, user Darbanza said Up First is the perfect length for morning coffee. If you agree, head over to your podcast app and leave us a rating or a review. It helps the algorithm show up first to more people looking to stay informed. And thank you. Some Iranians are fleeing the war on their country. Our correspondent is meeting them as they reach Turkey.

0:39Rachel Martin:We'll hear what people are seeing and where they're going to escape the war that's spreading across the region. I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News.

0:53Ayesha Rascoe:Iran postponed the mourning ceremony for its supreme leader as attacks continue on the capital, Tehran. Clerics are choosing who will lead Iran in the middle of a war, and many eyes are on the former leader's son.

1:04Rachel Martin:And China says it's sending a special envoy to the Middle East as Beijing opens its two sessions meeting where leaders set priorities for the year. Is China trying to position itself as a mediator or protecting its oil interests? Stay with us. We'll give you news you need to start your day.

1:24Ayesha Rascoe:This message comes from Schwab. At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus, get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award-winning service, low costs, and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit Schwab.com to learn more. This message comes from Capital One with the Capital One Saver Card. Earn unlimited 3 % cash back on dining and entertainment. Capital One. What's in your wallet? Terms apply.

2:04Ayesha Rascoe:Details at CapitalOne.com.

2:06Rachel Martin:This message comes from BetterHelp. International Women's Day is this March. Time to celebrate all women. The leaders, the caregivers, the hype friends, the how-do-you-do-it-all types. Women deserve to be reminded how much they matter and that therapy offers a space to care for themselves. BetterHelp makes it simple by matching you with a qualified therapist based on your needs and preferences. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR for 10 % off. Israel and the U.S. are continuing to hit Iran on the sixth day of the war. Iran says the United States will, quote, bitterly regret torpedoing one of its warships yesterday in the Indian Ocean in an attack that killed at least 87 people.

2:48Ayesha Rascoe:Here's a few updates overnight. Israel has tracked multiple incoming missile attacks. Air sirens blared overnight and into this morning in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. All this as the war continues to spread across the region. Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon, and Iranian strikes are causing turmoil in numerous Gulf countries.

3:09Rachel Martin:NPR's Ruth Sherlock is in Turkey, close to the border with Iran, where she's been speaking with Iranians coming across the border. And she's with us now. Ruth, hello. Thanks so much for joining us.

3:17Ayesha Rascoe:Hi, good morning.

3:19Rachel Martin:So as we said, you've been on the border with Iran. Tell us what you're seeing. Well, Michelle, people are coming out traumatized.

3:25Ayesha Rascoe:You know, Iran isn't letting Western journalists into the country, but speaking with Iranians here on the border, it really drives home the horror of this war for civilians. Everyone was too scared to give their name, as speaking with Western media has gotten people arrested in Iran. This man talked about his journey out. Very dangerous.

3:44Rachel Martin:This is a night bombing. Very dangerous.

3:48Ayesha Rascoe:It's a little hard to hear, but he's saying there was bombing through the night as he travelled. Children killed in Iran. He says he and his family have come to Turkey for shelter. I also spoke with a doctor from Tehran who described the terror of being engulfed in smoke and feeling the backblast of a strike that hit close to her car on the journey out. She says she's also witnessing many, many civilian casualties from these strikes. You know, these are densely packed neighborhoods. And she says residential buildings are also getting hit. She's been treating civilians with horrific injuries, she says.

4:24Ayesha Rascoe:The Iranian Ministry of Health records 926 people killed in just these few days. And despite all this, I saw a large number of people heading back into Iran. Communications are largely down in the country. And many people just said that they couldn't cope with not knowing if their families were OK and would rather be with them despite the danger.

4:45Rachel Martin:Wow, that's interesting. So tell us more about what these people who are heading back are heading back into.

4:52Ayesha Rascoe:Well, there's continued heavy bombardment by Israeli and U.S. forces on Tehran and other cities. And another thing we're watching closely is Iran's western border with Iraq. Turkey and Iran are responding to reports that Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with the United States in recent days about possible attacks against the Iranian regime. Turkey's saying it's watching closely. Iran's saying it's targeting what it called separatist militias in that region that it said intended to act against security forces there.

5:21Rachel Martin:Okay, what it called separatist militias, I see. So beyond Iran, there are also still major concerns about the Gulf region being drawn into the conflict? That's right.

5:31Ayesha Rascoe:You know, Iran's saying to the Gulf countries that it strikes against them. They're actually aimed at hitting U.S. military bases and assets there. But the attacks are having this crippling effect on Gulf economies and they've paralyzed the energy sector. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Al Thani told Iran's foreign minister yesterday, Qatar prefers diplomacy, but this aggression, he said, cannot go unanswered. Meanwhile, there's also reports of a new attack off the coast of Kuwait. And this would mean an expansion of the area where commercial shipping is also in danger.

6:04Rachel Martin:That is Ruth Sherlock near Turkey's border with Iran. Ruth, thank you so much. Thank you so much. And we have some information about two more U.S. Army reservists killed in Sunday's Iranian drone strike, 54-year-old Chief Warrant Officer Robert Marzan of Sacramento, California, and 45-year-old Major Jeffrey O 'Brien of Waukee, Iowa. They are among six U.S. service members killed in the attack in Kuwait.

6:38Rachel Martin:In Iran, a panel of clerics is deciding who will replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenehi, who was killed by an Israeli airstrike at the start of the war.

6:46Ayesha Rascoe:Whoever is chosen will sit atop a complicated governing system. There's an elected president, there's a legislature, there's a lot of security agencies, a regular army, and a whole separate army called the Revolutionary Guard. But if you put that government on a chart, all the lines of power ultimately would run back to that supreme leader.

7:04Rachel Martin:NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie Northam is with us now to tell us more about this. Jackie, good morning to you. Morning, Michelle. So who are some of the frontrunners for Supreme Leader of Iran?

7:14Ayesha Rascoe:Well, there are four main frontrunners that the 88-member panel of clerics will consider. And the panel is having to meet virtually because the Israelis bombed the building where they were supposed to meet. Anyway, there's quite a mix. There are basically two main routes they can take. First, the non-dynastic route, we can call it, with Alirazah Arafi. and he's a cleric, very prominent in Iran's religious establishment, and considered a hardliner. There's also Hassan Rouhani, a moderate and former president of Iran. And then we have the family route, where there is Hassan Khomeini, who's the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini, and he's seen as a relative moderate.

7:55Ayesha Rascoe:Finally, Michelle, there's Mojtaba Khomeini, and he is the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Khomeini, and he's considered the leading contender to become Iran's next supreme leader. So tell us more about him, if you would. Mojaba Khamenei has been described to me as kind of an unknown quantity, someone in the background. He is considered a hardliner who's closely associated with a violent crackdown on protesters in Iran in 2009. Now, Mojaba has important connections. Of all the candidates, he's the one who is closest to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. He's also well-connected in his late father's office, and these are the two most important parts of the regime.

8:36Ayesha Rascoe:If they support him, there's a good chance he'll be Iran's next leader.

8:40Rachel Martin:So if Moshteba Khamenei is chosen, will that be seen as a signal that the regime wants continuity, even as this war is ongoing? It would.

8:49Ayesha Rascoe:Moshteba would be seen as a status quo candidate. But, you know, analysts I spoke with say the current system can't be sustained. Iran is weakened from war and widespread protests. Its economy is battered, and it needs to transform if it wants to have legitimacy. The other thing is the next Supreme Leader will not wield as much power as Khamenei during his nearly 40 years in power. The Revolutionary Guards have gained enormous power over Iran's economy and its military. Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, says a new supreme leader will be deferential to the Revolutionary Guards.

9:27Ayesha Rascoe:Here he is. Where we end up in a situation in which it's senior officials from the guards fundamentally running the country and we end up in what's closer to a military dictatorship with a fig leaf to a religious supreme leader than we do with a supreme leader like Ayatollah Khamenei, who's actually calling the shots and has the final word. And yet, you know, when the late Ayatollah Khamenei was chosen as supreme leader, he was considered weak and pliable. But, you know, he proved to be cunning and ruthless

9:57Rachel Martin:and went on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the Middle East. That is NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie North. Jackie, thank you. Thank you.

10:14Rachel Martin:As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran expands, China is stepping into the crisis. with a high-profile diplomatic move.

10:20Ayesha Rascoe:Beijing is sending a special envoy to the Middle East to help mediate.

10:24Rachel Martin:We're joined by NPR's China correspondent Jennifer Pak in Beijing for the latest. Jennifer, good morning. Good morning. Could you just start by telling us who this envoy is and what we know about his assignment?

10:35David Greene:Well, China today named the envoy it's sending to the Middle East. His name is Jiayun, and he's been serving as an envoy to the region since 2019. But the foreign ministry didn't provide more details or say specifically which countries he would be visiting. Now, there are two reasons why China is stepping in. The first is strategic. China has economic interests in the Middle East. It gets part of its oil supply from the region. Here's a Chinese politics expert at the National University of Singapore, Jiayin Chong.

11:03Ayesha Rascoe:They have this long-standing relationship with the Iranian government. They've invested a lot in Iran. And part of that arrangement has to do with getting oil and gas out of Iran.

11:15David Greene:And that's not just from Iran. China also buys oil and gas from the rest of the region, he says. And now the conflict is affecting that supply. The second reason is a diplomatic one. This is a real opportunity for China to portray itself as a, quote, force for peace. It has been urging all sides to stop military operations and return to the negotiating table.

11:35Rachel Martin:Do we have any sense of whether that cooperation with Iran extends to military assistance?

11:41David Greene:So far, no. And it does raise the question of whether other countries would think it's worthwhile to enter into a strategic partnership with China, given that it doesn't extend to security protection. Analyst Chong offers a different interpretation. China is trying to feel its way around being a great power again, a great power in the contemporary period. The big question, he says, is what this envoy can realistically achieve. Given that China is not impartial in this, China is way more closely aligned with Iran than with either the U.S. or Israel.

12:12Rachel Martin:And Jennifer, how is Beijing making sense of the events of the last few days?

12:17David Greene:Well, Beijing is clearly uncomfortable with what's happening in the Middle East and elsewhere. For example, Venezuela earlier this year. Especially since from Beijing's standpoint, the Trump administration has been freely talking about regime change and taking out political leaders unilaterally. It's a sign for the Chinese that the world is getting more volatile. So at an important political meeting just this morning, Premier Li Qiang talked about external challenges.