Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire, Protests in Pakistan, Trump Threatens Tariffs

0:01A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect. This has been the deadliest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in decades. So what happens now for people displaced by war? I'm Rob Schmitz, that's A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Security forces dispersed thousands of protesters in Pakistan's capital last night. All you could see was T.I. gas, and it was just a lot of chaos. They're demanding jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan be released. Will they get their way? And President-elect Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China in a bid to stem the flow of fentanyl and unauthorized migrants.

0:43That is an unachievable goal. No country will accomplish that. Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.

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1:53With benefits like health care, paid parental leave, and tuition support, Walmart isn't just a place to work. It's a place to grow. Learn more at walmart.com slash spark. This message comes from Progressive Insurance. Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it at progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. Celebratory gunfire was heard in Lebanon's capital this morning, marking the start of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The deal aims to end the fighting across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the war in Gaza last year.

2:35It was brokered by the U.S. and France and announced by President Biden. For more on the deal, we're joined now by NPR's Lauren Freyer in Sidon in southern Lebanon. So, Lauren, people were celebrating the ceasefire in Beirut. What was the scene like? Yeah, I was going to set my alarm for 4 a.m. Turns out I didn't need to. I was awoken by this celebratory gunfire erupting across the city and sort of mixed with the dawn call to prayer from mosques across the city. Dogs started howling into the night, even before the first light, evacuees started heading south to try to see if their homes are still there.

3:07I'm on the coastal highway. There are minivans packed with families, belongings tied on car roofs, people blasting music, beeping their horns, cheering. a young boy knocked on my car window and handed me a poster of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in late September. So the mood is definitely festive here, but a lot of these people may find that they don't have homes standing anymore. Have you been able to talk to people along the way? I mean, how are they processing this? I mean, at least it's got to feel like a relief of some kind. Here's one woman I spoke with.

3:40Her name is Patricia Talib. She's 24. she had stopped on the shoulder of the highway to let one of her children pee on the side of the road. They're from a village in the south that saw fierce ground battles. And the Israeli military has warned people not to return to some of these areas because Israeli troops are still there. They're in retreat, but they are still in this country. And I asked Patricia if she's worried about finding Israeli soldiers in her house. To begin with, people are not really intimidated by the entity. We know that this is the end days of the war, and we know that ultimately it's going to be okay.

4:13We personally, we stayed for the first week of the war, so we didn't really want to leave our village to begin with. It was only because we were in the way of the resistance that we actually ended up leaving our village. You can hear her kids there in the background. When she says resistance, she means Hezbollah fighters. Now, I know it's new, but can you fill us in on the details of this agreement? Yeah, so this is a 60-day truce, which would take us up to Donald Trump's inauguration, incidentally, during which Israel withdraws its ground troops from Lebanon. It halts airstrikes and in turn Hezbollah moves its fighters and weapons north of the Latani River.

4:46That's about 20 miles away from the Israeli border. The Lebanese army is deploying down into southern Lebanon alongside UN peacekeepers who are already here. And an international committee will be monitoring implementation of this. As for whether this is holding, it apparently seems to be so far. There was one incident in which the Israeli military says it identified what it says were Hezbollah operatives returning to areas near the border. It opened fire on them. That doesn't appear to have kicked off anything wider. Now, many of the targets of Israeli strikes in Lebanon were either in the nation's south or in and around Beirut.

5:22What's the scale of recovery? Yeah, I mean, parts of Lebanon, particularly in the south and Beirut's southern suburbs, look like Gaza. They've been completely destroyed. This is orders of magnitude compared to the last war here in 2006. And it will take years, perhaps even decades, to rebuild. I'm in Sidon, an ancient port city on the Mediterranean. And this is sort of the boundary of southern Lebanon. So the mood has been very jubilant here as people head south and celebrate this ceasefire. But I suspect the mood will really change going south from here. Now, the ceasefire aims to put an end to Hezbollah militant attacks on Israel, which have displaced tens of thousands of people in the nation's north.

6:04What's the situation now for them? So Israel is still not calling on its residents to return to their abandoned homes in the north of that country. Officials there say there will be a one to two month period of rebuilding before they initiate that return. It's worth mentioning many mayors inside Israel, particularly along that border, opposed this ceasefire. One called it a shameful agreement. They have real security concerns. Not only the fear of a resumption of Hezbollah rocket attacks, but also a possible October 7th-like attack. That's NPR's Lauren Frayer. Lauren, thanks. You're welcome.

6:46Security forces dispersed protesters in the capital of Pakistan overnight. Yeah, that's right. They marched to Islamabad to demand the release of the jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested since Sunday. With me now is NPR's Diyah Hadid. She covers Pakistan from her base in Mumbai. Good morning, Diyah. Good morning, Rob. So bring us up to speed, Diyah. What happened with these protests and where do things stand? Right. Well, protesters had reached downtown Islamabad. They defied tear gas and climbed over shipping containers to get there. There was also violence.

7:22Six people were killed on Tuesday, including four security personnel. Journalists covering the march said protesters also attacked them, including an Associated Press cameraman who was taken to hospital. And once protesters had made it to the city centre, they announced a sit-in until the former Prime Minister Imran Khan is released. But overnight, paramilitary forces pushed them out. Videos shared by Khan supporters showed smoke, flashing lights, people running, the sound of guns firing. I spoke to a young woman who was there. She requested anonymity. She's worried about being detained if identified because there's been crackdowns on Khan supporters.

7:57All you could see was tear gas and it was just a lot of chaos. I was between the crowd at that time. My dad and I saw a body fall in front of us when the firing started. It was all pitch dark, but I could hear bullets being shot at people. Wow, that sounds terrifying. Yeah. Khan's media team say dozens of people were injured and another two people were killed. And following that crackdown, Khan's team called off the protest for now. And the governments interpreted that as a victory for them. The information minister even told local media that protesters ran like cowards. He said they'd even left their shoes behind.

8:41So it sounds like the government is taking a very tough line in all of this. What can we expect in the coming days? Well, the coming days may well reflect what we've seen in the past 18 months since Imran Khan was jailed, a cycle of increasingly violent encounters. I spoke to Michael Kugelman. He's the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, and he says this violence reflects a crisis of legitimacy at the very top. You have a critical mass of the public that has essentially lost confidence in public institutions, and that includes the army. It's important to note the army is Pakistan's most powerful institution.

9:24It was largely sacrosanct among Pakistanis, and that's changed now. Many of Khan's supporters see the army as having rigged elections this February to propel this current government to power. So for now, it's an intractable crisis, the army against Khan and his supporters. And now that they've deployed against civilians in the capital, which is quite unusual in Pakistan, it could happen again because nothing's actually been resolved. But for now, the protests have been dispersed, right? Yeah. The government says life's returning to normal. Cars are on the road where the crackdown happened. It's unclear what protesters will do next.

10:03Two people I spoke to said they were angry at their protest leaders because they appear to have fled as the crackdown began. That includes Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi. She only appears in a white gown and a face veil, presents herself as a spiritual guru. Now the government's playing on that anger. One minister told local media that these events were the fault of one woman. That's NPR's Dia Hadid. Dia, thank you. You're welcome, Rob.

10:35President-elect Donald Trump is threatening a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10 percent tariff may be put on items from China. According to Trump, those nations are not doing enough to stop undocumented migrants or fentanyl from crossing into the U.S. While arrests of migrants have been on the rise at the northern border, they're a fraction of those at the southern border, where apprehensions are at a four-year low. NPR's Brian Mann covers a fentanyl crisis, joins us now to take a look at Trump's promise. Now, Brian, it's a social media post right now, not policy quite yet, but what does Donald Trump say he hopes to accomplish with this threat?

11:11Yeah, you're right, A. It's not clear Trump's going to follow through on this. He doesn't take office for a couple months. A lot of negotiations are going to happen before then. What Trump said in social media post Monday is that these countries aren't doing enough to solve what he describes as two of the biggest problems hitting the U.S., illegal immigration and fentanyl, which is still killing tens of thousands of people every year. According to Trump, Canada, China, and Mexico could collectively easily solve these problems. He added that once imposed, these tariffs would remain in place until drugs, including fentanyl and illegal aliens, those are his words, stop this invasion of our country.

11:48But could China and Mexico really just shut down fentanyl smuggling just like that? Yeah, experts I talk to say no, it's just not possible. Jonathan Calkins, a drug policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University, says fentanyl is just really easy to make and smuggle. Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to control fentanyl because it's so easy for the illegal supply chains to produce and distribute it. Vonda Feldbeth-Brown is a drug policy expert at the Brookings Institution, and she agrees what Trump is demanding here, it just isn't going to happen. That is an unachievable goal. No country will accomplish that.

12:26What experts say is the best case scenario is that Trump's threats here prompt negotiations that maybe lead to better cooperation on migrants and fentanyl with more realistic goals. OK, I'm sure they're all going to be talking at some point. So how are these countries responding so far? Well, you know, first it's important to say most fentanyl does enter the U.S. from Mexico, typically passing through official border crossings. Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, responded by saying yesterday, fentanyl is primarily a U.S. problem, one that requires a health care and treatment response, she says, to reduce addiction.

12:58That's been Mexico's position for years. She also suggested U.S. tariffs linked to fentanyl could trigger a full-blown trade war. One other concern I'm hearing from drug policy experts is that a trade fight could unravel what has been growing international cooperation targeting drug traffickers. Again, here's Van de Philbram Brown at Brookings. Very yes, Chinese officials have told me that the counter-narcotics cooperation would not be able to survive an imposition of substantial tariffs. So if this power move by Trump doesn't work, we could see China and Mexico backing away from intelligence sharing and other cooperation with U.S.

13:35law enforcement. That could mean less pressure on these gangs that are smuggling fentanyl. Now, Brian, you've been reporting that the fentanyl crisis has been easing in recent months with a lot fewer people dying. So what does Donald Trump say about that? Well, Trump hasn't actually acknowledged that progress. Writing on social media, he said, we're still seeing drugs coming across the border. And I'm quoting here at levels never seen before. In fact, there's been a huge positive shift over the last 12 months. Fatal overdoses, including fentanyl, are dropping fast, about 16 ,000 fewer deaths. Most experts I talk to credit better health care and treatment, and they worry that Trump's threat here of an international drug and trade war could be a distraction, pulling focus away from a public health response that appears to be helping.

14:18So let's broaden the scope then. If these countries cannot meet Donald Trump's big demands on fentanyl and migrants, I mean, how could a tariff war then play out for workers and consumers here in the U.S.? Well, most economists agree tariffs basically work as a tax on goods. This kind of trade fight could boost prices for American consumers at a time when inflation is still a problem. More broadly, we're talking about what could be a messy trade conflict erupting simultaneously between the U.S. and three countries that are all deeply intertwined with American companies and their supply chains.

14:51So if Trump does pull the trigger on these tariffs, the disruption could be enormous. That's NPR's addiction correspondent, Brian Mann. Brian, thanks. Thank you, A.

15:03And that's Up First for Wednesday, November 27th. I'm Amy Martinez. And I'm Rob Schmitz. For your next listen, why not try Consider This from NPR? Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone toe-to-toe with world leaders. She led Germany through times of turmoil and became a role model for women. What does she have to say about her legacy? Listen to Consider This from NPR. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Diedrich Skainke, Ryland Barton, Andrea DeLeon, Lisa Thompson, and Mohamed Elbardisi. It was produced by Ziad Bacch, Nia Dumas, and Lily Quiroz. We get engineering support from Carly Strange, and our technical director is Nisha Hainas.

15:40Join us again tomorrow.

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