Military Buildup Around Iran, Board Of Peace Meeting, Former Prince Andrew Released

0:02President Trump says we will know in about 10 days whether he chooses war with Iran. The U.S. has enough military power in the Middle East for sustained airstrikes on the country. How is Tehran preparing for a possible attack? I'm Michelle Martin. That's Leila Faddle. And this is Up First from NPR News. President Trump laid out his plan to rebuild Gaza and his global vision for his Board of Peace. We're also going to maybe take it a step further where we see hot spots around the world. We can probably do that very easily. Some leaders worry it could sideline the United Nations. And British police are searching royal properties today after former Prince Andrew's arrest tied to the Epstein files.

0:41He's been released, but investigators are looking into whether he passed confidential government information to the convicted sex offender. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

0:56The American military buildup in the Middle East has reached a critical mass. That's right. It now appears the U.S. could be capable of a sustained bombing campaign against Iran. Yet, President Trump remains noncommittal about whether he will use force. Here he is yesterday. Now we may have to take it a step further or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days. For more, we're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myrie. Good morning, Greg. Hey, Laila. Okay, so this flow of U.S. forces into the Middle East keeps expanding.

1:30Can you break down what's now in the region? Yeah, this buildup has been underway for a month, and more key pieces are now moving into place. And this includes a second aircraft carrier, which will be in the Mediterranean. Some 50 additional fighter jets have been arriving in recent days. The U.S. has also added defensive measures to guard against Iranian missile strikes. So it really is a critical mass, as you noted. This is way above and beyond what's needed to pressure Iran in nuclear negotiations. It's the kind of force that looks capable of fighting for weeks, if not longer. So this might be a basic question, but a really fundamental one.

2:10What is President Trump trying to achieve? Yeah, he really hasn't spelled that out. In the negotiations, he wants Iran to effectively give up its nuclear program and make other wide-ranging concessions. These are demands Iran has long resisted. Yet he's also expressed support for regime change, which would likely require a major military operation. Now, he hasn't made a major speech to the American public about the prospect of a new Middle East war. His administration hasn't sought support from Congress or made the case at the United Nations. And aside from Israel, he hasn't brought in U.S. allies or built an international coalition.

2:50How is Iran preparing for a possible attack and how might it respond? Yeah, this is the question I put to Alex Vatanca, an Iran expert at the Middle East Institute here in Washington. I've been scanning the Iranian media for the last many days. They are predicting that, yes, there will be some kind of a military conflict with the United States. It'll be something bigger than the 12-day war that we had last summer. But it won't be anything like the Iraq invasion by the United States back in 2003. So Iran was certainly weakened by that war last summer, but it still has a large number of ballistic missiles.

3:26It can again fire at U.S. military targets in Israel. Now, Vatanqas' main goal of the Iranian government is really just survival, beating back any attempt to oust the Shiite Muslim clerics who've run the country for nearly a half century. He believes the Iranians are worried about a conflict on two fronts, U.S. and Israeli strikes from the skies and from ordinary Iranians rising up in protest on the streets. As we know, the Iranian security forces crushed those protests last month and killed many people. We just don't know if we'll see another uprising. Okay, so that's what we know from Iran, a lot of uncertainty there.

4:04Do we know what a U.S. military campaign might actually look like? Yeah, Layla, we really don't. The spectrum of possibilities range at one end from limited strikes on a few specific targets like nuclear facilities. The other end would be a large open-ended campaign intended to topple the regime. Now, we should stress the U.S. military force is built on Navy ships and fighter jets. What you don't see are U.S. ground troops. If the U.S. strikes, it will be with warplanes in the sky and ships firing at sea, not a ground war. That's NPR's Greg Meire. Thank you, Greg. Sure thing, Layla.

4:48President Trump made his remarks about Iran at a gathering of his new Board of Peace, where members discuss plans to rebuild Gaza. And while the president's team unveils ambitious plans for high-end condos and skyscrapers along the coastline, some world leaders are raising concerns that the Board of Peace could upend world order. NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez is here to talk about the high stakes involved and what it means for Trump. Good morning. Good morning, Lita. So how much is the Board of Peace about Gaza? Because the mandate appears to be growing and raising concerns. Yeah, I mean, I'd say the discussion was mostly about Gaza.

5:26And we've been obviously reporting about the$10 billion the U.S. is committing to reconstruction efforts and the stabilization force being put together for security. But Trump is not hiding the fact that he has a bigger vision for this board, and he's casting it as a signature part of his administration, boasting that it will not only be a vehicle for rebuilding Gaza, but could also be used for any number of global conflicts. This is something very special, and we're going to straighten out Gaza. We're going to make Gaza very successful and safe. And we're also going to maybe take it a step further where we see hotspots around the world.

6:02We can probably do that very easily. And it's that idea that has raised concerns because some leaders see this as a potential rival to the United Nations. I mean, this is a system that's allowed smaller nations to have a voice in major international decisions. But this board is going to be run by Trump and those he handpicks. OK, so that's why countries like France and the UK and Sweden didn't show up for these meetings, right? Concerns about the charter? Yeah, I mean, Trump has made no secret of his dislike for the UN and international organizations. I spoke to Ivo Dalder, who served as ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration, and he called the Board of Peace a vanity project for Trump, but one that is also raising legitimate concerns among world leaders.

6:47I mean, they're watching the biggest power in the world and the largest contributor to the United Nations set up this alternative system. To see someone like the United States walk away from the UN system represents a fundamental reversal of the last 80-some years of global politics. And people are worried about that. They're worried about the general direction of American foreign policy. But Trump and his team argue that the old way of doing things is just not working and specifically could not do what they have done in Gaza in reaching the so-called ceasefire. Okay, so speaking of that, the UN Security Council met just before the Board of Peace, where it raised concerns about ongoing violence in Gaza.

7:29I mean, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire. How would that impact this board's goals? Yeah, a lot. I mean, this week, Israel said Hamas had just 60 days to give up all its weapons, or Israel would resume military operations, which would just blow up Trump's already fragile ceasefire. Are there political implications with the midterms ahead? Yeah, the timing is very delicate. I mean, we could be talking about an entirely different situation in a few months as campaign season kicks in. And that's not even accounting for the potential for military operations in Iran. I mean, Republican allies are already worried that this effort could end up tying the administration into another Middle East crisis.

8:09And that's the very kind of conflict that Trump's pledged to avoid. And Trump, of course, has already been facing criticism for spending too much time on foreign policy and not enough time on the issues he was elected on, which of course is immigration and reducing inflation. That's White House correspondent Franco Ordonez. Thank you, Franco. Thank you.

8:37It's an unprecedented, almost unthinkable sight. Police are searching homes of the British royals today. This after one of their own was arrested for the first time in nearly four centuries. King Charles's brother, Andrew, was released from police custody last night, but police are still investigating whether he illegally passed British government documents to the late sex offender, Jeffrey Epstein. For the latest, we're joined by NPR's Lauren Frayer in London. Good morning, Lauren. Good morning, Layla. Okay, so what is the latest in the investigation, given he has been released from police custody.

9:11Released after 11 hours. Police say Andrew is still under investigation, though. So that means he's neither been charged nor exonerated. Andrew hasn't commented on the latest allegations. He did settle a lawsuit years ago with one of Epstein's underage victims and has strenuously denied any wrongdoing all along. There are photos of him looking really shell-shocked last night, hunched in the backseat of an SUV being driven away from a police station. And police are searching those royal properties today. They're also doing digital searches of those latest Epstein files, which prompted this arrest.

9:44They're looking specifically at Andrew's emails from the early 2000s when he was a UK trade envoy. And when he allegedly forwarded Epstein government travel itineraries, investment plans, which could have violated the UK's Official Secrets Act. Misconduct in public office is what police say Andrew's is suspected of. And that carries up to life in prison. Okay, now I know this news is still so fresh, but what impact could this have on the British monarchy? I'm actually at a briefing right now with a group of anti-monarchy campaigners. I mean, they are hoping this leads the UK to get rid of its royals.

10:20How significant is this anti-monarchy group? I mean, it's a movement that has existed for decades, centuries even. It's too soon to say whether it's gathering steam in the wake of Andrew's arrest. Polls taken before yesterday show most Brits still support the monarchy. We'll see if that changes now. Campaigners want it to. But, you know, the palace's PR machine is also in full force. I spoke to Andrew's biographer. His name is also Andrew, Andrew Lowney, before the arrest. And he told me, look, the royals have long known Andrew was a liability. Royal bodyguards accompanied him to Epstein's island.

10:55And Lowney says it just reached a tipping point. Prince William doesn't want to inherit this problem. It shaped the reign of Charles. It's a distraction from all the other work they do. It's undermined the reputation of the members of the family. It's pretty much destroyed the institution. They want to get rid of this problem. And yesterday, King Charles said, quote, the law must take its course. That may mean distancing himself from his own brother to try to save the monarchy. How are Brits reacting? Leila, if it's any indication, the Daily Mail, one of the biggest newspapers here, you actually have to turn past 15 pages to get to any story today that's not Andrew.

11:32This has been the talk of pubs across the UK. Some call it the biggest royal crisis since Princess Diana's death or since the 1936 abdication of Edward VIII. Some go back further to Charles I. He was the last royal to be arrested in 1647. And it didn't work out so well for him. He got tried and beheaded. There's anger. There's sympathy for Epstein's victims. There's also some sympathy for Andrew, at least on Air Force One. President Trump told reporters there it's sad, it's a shame, it's bad for the royals. King Charles is expected to travel to the U.S. later this year. I'll be watching for whether that actually goes ahead, given all the family turmoil at home.

12:14Overall, I would say Brits are shocked. They're absorbing the idea that His Majesty's police are investigating His Majesty's brother, who is still eighth in line for the throne as of today. And he could be charged today. He could be charged a month from now or never. We'll just have to wait and see. That's NPR's Lauren Freyer in London. Thank you, Lauren. You're welcome. Before you go, don't forget to follow up first on your podcast app so you'll get coverage of the news you need to start your day delivered directly to you when you wake up.

12:49And that's a first for Friday, February 20th. I'm Leila Faldin. And I'm Michelle Martin. For more Olympics coverage, check out Up First Winter Games, a new video podcast from NPR. New episodes drop throughout the games every afternoon at youtube.com slash NPR. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Andrew Sussman, Rebecca Metzler, Tina Kraja, Mohamed El-Radisi, and H.J. Mai. It was produced by Ziad Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hines. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our executive producer is Jay Shaler. Join us again on Monday.