Rahm Emanuel on 2026 Midterms and Politics in the Trump Era

25:30And so there's a responsibility that comes with this and that is self-evident. And so, yes, are we continuing to kind of move forward? Yeah, because you have a responsibility. It's easy to kind of turn your back on it and be, my three kids are doing fine. Amy and I are doing great. So at one level, you could just say that. I feel guilty saying my family's well when I look at everything else going on for everybody else's family. And that's a responsibility that comes with being here. And you're thinking about running for president. If you ran, what would your cause be? Cause be to make sure that the American dream stays alive for another generation.

26:07I think that we have broken faith with it. It's unaffordable. It's inaccessible. and that's totally unacceptable. I'm a product of the American dream. When you said, and Steve, you said this, you know, we're going to get ahead. Who are you getting ahead with? Our parents. You can't do that today. Kids are making three times what their parents made when they got out of college, yet they're in the basement, and their parents could afford a home. In the 1950s, 50 % of our young adults at the age of 30 were married and owned a home. Today it's down to 14%. The first-time home buyer is now 40. This is crushing.

26:41We have pulled up the ladder, double locked the door. The bridge is closed rock solid. And a few kids are able to make it. And 97 of the other kids out of 100 can't. They can't own a home. They can't afford their one sickness away from a health care. They're fighting with the insurance company to get what the doctor prescribed. Their 401K has become a backstop to their paycheck. And education has become unaffordable and forced them into the basement. And to me, the cause would be restoring both the American dream and I do think in both the accessibility and the affordability of the American dream.

27:17And it's something if you want stability in democracy, get stability in the economy to work for people. You used to strive to get to the American middle class dream. Today, you struggle to stay in it and more likely falling behind on it. And so to me, that would be, now I've also put at the center of that because it's what makes it accessible. You live in a period of time where you earn what you learn. As you know, because we've talked about this many times, sure. Today, 50 % of our kids are not reading at grade level and doing math at grade level. It's the lowest it's been in 30 years. Those kids will be fighting and playing with one hand tied behind their back.

27:56If you can't do third grade reading, fourth grade is not easier. That's the answer to the pop quiz. It doesn't get easier. Now, I just came back from Mississippi where they have what is referred to as the Mississippi Miracle, but I would refer to it as Mr. Barksdale, so to me, who funded this, is the Mississippi Marathon. I just want to underline for people, Mississippi, traditionally right near the bottom in education. And in 20 years, they've gone from 49th on reading to 9th. And it's a very conservative state. Let's note that as well. So what are they doing right? What are they doing right?

28:25But also, two points. One is every other state, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Alabama that have replicated. are all seeing similar growth in their reading scores. They've returned to the fundamentals. One, back to phonics. Get away from all the hooey that's taught out of Columbia that's ruined kids. Phonics, the science of reading. Retrain the teachers around it. Support the teachers with constant coaching around phonics. Give kids the additional time needed on reading. Give them the additional support if they may need a tutor, and then hold them accountable. no going to fourth grade if you can't hit third grade.

29:03That is it. It's the fundamentals. And they have succeeded. And every state that has replicated has seen similar growth. They've gone from 49th to ninth. Every challenge we face can be answered by what's working in America. Now, I happen to think on the latter years, and we'll get to this if you want, what we did in Chicago in the high school years were the kind of fundamentals. If that needs fundamental reforming. The K through eight, or what we did in Chicago, pre-K through eight, is about returning to the fundamentals, giving the time, giving the teachers the training, giving the kids the support, and you will get gains on reading and math, which are essential for the rest of the education to work.

29:47I just want to note, you're a Democrat, you went to an overwhelmingly Republican state. Not only overwhelmingly, I went to a county, did a town hall, standing room only, in a county that Donald Trump won by 21%. Is there anything partisan about what you're saying? Anything at all? No, I think actually if I had to say a, as my mother would say, a pffwee on both of you, is one, I don't know if that gets translated in the radio, but it's an old Jewish phrase. Got it. I'll ask you to spell that later. No, it's like a spit on both of you. Oh, no, wait, we're doing phonics. Never mind. All right. Republicans have walked away from public education, abandoned it.

30:25You mean national Republicans, I assume, since you're praising Mississippi, but go on. And Democrats have abandoned accountability and standards. And both parties are wrong. And it is unacceptable that 50 % of our kids are not reading at grade level. I grew up and I believe in the politics where Governor Clinton, Governor Winter from Mississippi, Governor Riley from South Carolina, Governor Hunt from North Carolina, Governor Zell Miller from Georgia, Governor Lawton Childs from Florida. They answered Mr. Bloom's A Nation at Risk report. And they came up with a major famous report that got us on a 25-year slow, steady progress in reading and math scores.

31:03Some fits and starts. That's how this is. You ain't going to have a linear line. Find somewhere else if you want instant gratification. It ain't happening here. It's hard work. But we, as a country, answered that challenge. which today you know more about the president's position on windmills than you do about the fact that we've had a 30-year low in reading scores. He's never commented on it. No governor of either party has called for a national emergency meeting. And this is not a pop quiz. The answer is with four states who have all adopted something totally fundamental. And they showed you, not once, not twice, not three times, four times how to succeed.

31:44And to me, that is what's essential to getting this country right and getting those kids' future right. And one of the things I'll say, and I'll shut up, Stephen, I know you want to get one of the 925 ,000 questions. I got a few more to go. And this gets back to when you talked to me about us and my family. our responsibility is when you walk through the door of opportunity is not to reach back as Ms. Obama said and grab a door handle and shut the door but to grab a hand and pull somebody through that you can't get from here to there you can't believe in equity if you're complacent with 50 percent of the kids not reading at grade level to Rahm Emanuel reading is far more important than divisive social issues, which he says Democrats have focused on too much in the past.

32:39This was the subject of a much-debated comment that he had when appearing on Megyn Kelly's podcast last year. Can a man become a woman? Can a man become a woman? Not, no. Thank you. No. After a break, we discuss that quote and ask Emanuel what he meant. You have argued that your party was missing its priorities on education, arguing, and I paraphrase here, that Democrats are spending too much time on who goes into what school bathroom and not enough time on the kinds of issues that you have raised. Too much time on trans issues, to be blunt. You, a few months ago, were on a Megyn Kelly podcast, and she asked you a yes-no question, and as I recall, the question was, can a man become a woman?

33:25You said no, then said you were heading for the Witness Protection Program. Yeah. I want to ask about that because with that remark, it seemed to me you were going beyond the question of trans kids where there's all kinds of debate or trans kids in sport where there's a very nuanced debate. And you're saying there aren't trans people. Is that what you meant? No. First of all, that's not what I said, Steve. Okay. So what I said, let's dial up since what you said. Okay. What I believe, way too much time on bathroom access and not enough time on classroom excellence. And you could see it in a whole debate.

33:59as a former ambassador of Japan, 8 ,000 miles away, I was watching this country, and you got 50 % of your kids can't read at grade level. You tell me the amount of coverage of that versus the amount of coverage on a bathroom, a locker room, or a sport, as your question indicated. Got it. I will also say number two to you. I've been in Iowa at a front yard, 400 people. Two hours of questions. I was in Waterbury, Mississippi. Standing room only. About an hour and a half. So I've taken about 40 questions. Nobody has ever asked me a single question about bathroom, locker room, or sports. Every time I get within 202 area code, it's the second or third question.

34:38So that's number one. It's not a priority, and American people actually feel in their bones what's missing in education. Now, I'm a mayor. In 2016, a full decade ago, I passed an ordinance on bathroom access, but I never allowed it to distract me from high school graduation rates, reading scores, and math scores. I was the ambassador, led one of the largest embassies in the United States across the world. We were a very welcoming community, inclusive, but I never allowed it to be a digression from our mission of serving the U.S.-Japan alliance and building it stronger and better for the 21st century.

35:22Never. Now, did I go from acceptance to advocacy? No. That wasn't the job. That wasn't the mission. You accept trans people as they are. I created an accepting culture, but I said, here's who we're serving, the United States of America. So to me, that's what I think is the focus. I never took my eye off of all. We had eight years of graduation growth. did in 2016, mid-cycle in my eight years as mayor, we changed the laws and the ordinance and passed one on bathroom access? Yeah, but I never took the eye off the ball. And I, unlike what has happened in the debate here. And I just say this because you can see the amount of energy and oxygen on a set of issues.

36:04And I - We should be frank. Republicans are going to raise it if you don't. They're going to be in your face on this. They did in the campaign and walking around in the campaign and saying, well, I said that in 2020. Well, campaigns are not about what you said yesterday. They're about what you said in your career. Okay, so that said, you've got to deal with that. And I believe the American people are a culture of acceptance, but not one that becomes advocacy. And that's what crossed the line. Now, I've made my position clear. It's not the biggest issue. And I think when you have, and I've said this in tongue-in-cheek, but I mean this, One child is discussing their pronoun, and the rest of the class doesn't know what a pronoun is.

36:44If I want to be frank, I don't know if I'll run, but if I run and the issues on trans are the most important, I'm not your guy, and I'm okay with that. If getting us off of a 30-year low on reading or math scores and somebody that's willing to make that core to what we have to do as a country, then you may think my answers are right, and you may think my answers are wrong, and I'm okay with that. But I'll tell you one thing I know from history. End of Civil War, turn of the century, end of the GI, and meeting the Sputnik Challenge, the four greatest periods of economic growth and prosperity in American history are underpinned by one constant.

37:25Land-grant colleges under the Civil War, universal high school education, the GI Bill, and the science and technology challenges of the Sputnik Challenge. We are fighting and we're letting people in America fight with one hand tied behind their back. And so to me, that is what I said I would do. Now, I, again, believe in a culture of acceptance. I have no problem with that. But it will not distract or digress from raising graduation rates, post-high school education, and reading a math course. It's something that should be done, but it's not the thing we send kids to school with. And I also think arguing about the name of a school after Abraham Lincoln and not worrying about the fact that the kids don't know why Abraham Lincoln is an icon is also messed up.

38:12This was a debate in California over a school called the Lincoln School. And I think we engage, and I say we meaning Democrats, engage in bringing cultural wars to schools and then found out we were on the losing side of those cultural debates. And politics is about picking where you want to have a battle. And I think we made a big strategic mistake. We took our eye off educational excellence, went into a cultural landscape, and found out we didn't have the public with us. I want to find out if you think there was another strategic mistake. I'm thinking about— Yes. The answer is yes. Many strategic mistakes.

38:46Now you figure out the question that works with that. Let's be a little more specific. I'm thinking about corporate America, which is thought of as a traditional Republican constituency. But I think that during the Obama administration, you believed that you had some support in corporate America. There were prominent executives like the head of General Electric who were more or less with you. And I think a lot of corporate America was on board with a lot of the Democratic agenda. It seems clear that in 2024, corporate America made their peace with whatever qualms they had with President Trump and got on board with President Trump.

39:21Why do you think Democrats lost corporate America? We're going to have to come back for a whole other hour. I'm here for you. Is that H-E-R-E or H-E-A-R? Either one. Either one. So, you know, one thing when I said yes before the question, you know, Henry Kissinger has a great quote. Does anybody have questions for my answers? Which describes in a manual perfectly. Okay. So here's what I – one is this is an infamous March 2009 or spring 2009. I shouldn't say March.

40:00we passed the president's recovery act the extension of health care for children of working parents without health care lily ledbetter pay equity series of other things about teen and tobacco national service we have this big saturday meeting of the president's three children as he called it health care reform financial banking reform and cap and trade and we have this big debate now i would you know and i point at the other end of the roosevelt table it was domestic policy, every day that you're not doing health care is a day you're not going to get it done. And if you look at the history of health care, going all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt, pretty good analysis, especially with Hillary Care being kind of front and center.

40:38In the 90s, yeah. The economic team did not want to do anything, but they also thought specifically financial reform would prevent banks from lending that was important for getting the economy moving again. Yeah. representing the political group around the table, myself, and David Axel as a vocal, I was for doing first financial and banking reform. One is if the history, as I told the president, if you want to pass healthcare reform, the industry, insurance, pharmaceuticals, have to be on your side of the table. That's the lesson from Hillary's fail. In financial reform, the banks and the insurance executives are going to be on the other side.

41:23And America, after the Recovery Act, after the TARP, need to see you fighting for them against the people that they think have wreaked havoc on their lives, making them lose homes. Yeah. Obviously, you know, history. His first child, he said, was health care reform. He went for that, didn't do financial reform. No. And that's, you know, look, I kind of argue you got universal health care reform, but you also got the Tea Party. Not everything's 100%. That's life. But that's why he gets paid the big bucks, and you have to have judgment in the Oval Office, which is something that's thoroughly lacking right now.

41:55So to me, that's kind of the choices. Now, why corporate America goes from kind of okay with President Obama's policy, and I think this is a little short change. Not all of corporate America was there. Understood. Yeah. That's kind of a – But you had some support in this traditionally Republican area. Yeah. I wouldn't say you did. I mean, I could give you – Steve Schwartzman yelled at the president for – called him, I think, his policies. I mean, I don't want to even get into the language about Nazis and stuff like that. And they had images of – I mean, just things that were said about the president from voices in corporate America.

42:30They were also violently against him doing health care when they said just talk about the economy and et cetera. So it was not like they were always applauding. So my memory is slightly different than your memory. No, I understand. I understand. But there was a consensus around when we were first coming up with the Recovery Act, I mean, Jamie Dimon says in the East Wing in a big meeting with financial and business leaders, and this is when you're facing close to a small D depression, whatever it is, it's got to be big, it's got to be bold, and it's got to be harsh. And just get the thing moving and do it all across the whole waterfront.

43:08That became pretty much what we did from the Recovery Act, et cetera. So there was some consensus there. I think corporate America here, just I'll say it here, is I think they've sold out America and America is loyal to them. And what I mean by that is you benefit from a nation built on laws and you're watching from the sideline a nation being destroyed and walking away from the rule of law. Everything you have is built on the premise of the rule of law. Number two, the president's declared war on the greatest research system in the world it's ever seen. And you are, your company is a direct beneficiary of that.

43:51And you're like the three monkeys. See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil. You are timid souls. And if you don't want to speak of individually, what is these business groups for but collective voice? with a singular message. The core crux of the world economy and the U.S. great economy is built on the rule of law, great education, great research at our great universities, and the capacity to both find the talent, the kind of level playing field that the rule of law gives and the certainty it gives, and also the ideas that are coming out of the golden goose called our university system. And every one of you, but one or two, to the person, have been incredibly timid souls, to quote Teddy Roosevelt.

44:39I have lost, and I know this in respect, so they've decided for their short-term stock, I suppose, and I don't want to say all of corporate America, but for a whole host of reasons, and I've heard them say things in private to me, but for a whole host of reasons, they've decided to bite their tongue. And I will tell you, this will come home to roost. Did Democrats also do something, as on other issues, to drive people away that might have been— People or corporate America? Corporate America. Corporate America. Okay. You said people there, and I wasn't sure what you were saying. Thank you for asking for the clarification.

45:12No, no. I don't mean that. I'm serious. I wasn't sure what you were talking about. I wanted to know if—you've said that Democrats were driving people away with the wrong focus on education. Is there something having to do with corporate America where Democrats, something about your approach to social issues or taxes or business or regulation drove corporate America away? I think one of the things – my analysis is both parties got it wrong. I kind of – I'm saying this shorthand. But the Republican parties are dominated by a monopolist mindset and our party is starting to get dominated by a bunch of Marxists.

45:43And both Marxism and monopolists don't serve the economy well. I think generically – this is generic at 10 ,000 feet without a name to it. Democrats don't talk about growth and should be the party that talks and actually executes growth versus redistribution. I happen to think education is core to growth. Investing in our energy and capacity is core to our growth as is modernizing our infrastructure is core to our growth. Our university systems and college systems and community college systems are essential for our growth. A country based not only in rural law is also essential for our growth.

46:27And I think making sure that more people, not only there's growth, but more people are participating and beneficiary. To me, I take this whole issue of affordability. People are talking about housing. They're talking about groceries. They're talking about gas. I want to talk about incomes. you have a situation where incomes you have one man getting a trillion dollar income from a company and other people haven't seen the minimum wage or their incomes grow and this is insane to me so if you want to deal with affordability maybe you can drive grocery prices down i think it's better you have to grow people's incomes up i want to ask separately about corporate america to get to this point their profits have never been better their stock has never been higher until today when the president decided to have war on Greenland.

47:14And they have done nothing to share that income growth and the growth of the company with all their workers. Final question. Yes, Steve. What's one piece of advice you would give to Democrats running in this year's election? My advice is that this is a referendum election. Keep it focused on the rubber stamp Republican Congress to President Trump. He's unpopular. Midterms that have one party in power have a law of physics. Massive energy by a party out of power. We're seeing that in every special anywhere in the country for the last year. Massive downturn by the party in power. You're seeing that with Republican votes all over the place.

47:57You have to win independents two to one to win the House. they are uncomfortable with Donald Trump. And they're uncomfortable that nobody's, from the Roberts court to the press and media to the Republicans in Congress are putting a checkmate on him. What do you have to do with the Senate where you will have to win rural states, Republican states, red states? This is my, look, nearly 50 % of the electorate identifies as independent. In every House, every U.S. Senate, where you have a chance of building a majority and also, which is lost, if I may say this, Steve, what's also happening in the state races.

48:37School, this election, there shouldn't be a school board seat all the way up to the governor in the seven most important swing states empty. It should always have a D next to it. But make this a referendum on what the Republicans have been enabling Donald Trump to do because he is going to drive this election. He's driving down turnout among Republicans and driving turnout among Republicans, win the hearts and minds of the unaffiliated, and you got yourself a majority. You think that you could even win in Iowa where Democrats haven't won for years with that formula? Yeah, you have a governor. So let's go over the real estate.

49:14Not everybody's a weirdo like me. You have a governor's race, a Senate race, four congressional races, not counting also the Capitol. You won five months ago in the area Donald Trump won a state Senate seat that he won by 22 percent. It flipped to the Democrats. It was the canary in the coal mine. This thing is coming. And there is a potential for a wave. But to win in Iowa, yet you are going to have Democratic turnout. Here's how I look at the electorate. Democrats are mad at what Donald Trump's doing and mad that he's getting away with it. Independent voters are uncomfortable. They made a Faustian bargain.

49:52They didn't like Donald Trump personally. They were uncomfortable with him, but they thought they were going to get economics out of it. They've gotten neither the economics and they've gotten all the personality. And so they're furious. They're uncomfortable with a rubber stamp Republican Congress. I happen to think Republican MAGA voters, as seen by Marjorie Taylor Greene, seen by Joan Rogan, feel betrayed. A different emotion. There are three distinct emotions in this electorate. anger among Democrats, uncomfortable and disquieted and discomfort among independents, betrayal among MAGA voters.

50:31And Democrats' focus is on their base, which are going to turn out because they want to send a message, win the hearts and minds of the unaffiliated voters, and that's your ticket to a majority. You said also you don't even want a school board seat to be empty. You want Democrats running for every office. Why does that matter in swing states? Just explain it for me. Well, one, you know, the closer you get to where people live in their lives, the more energized they are. Nothing's more energizing than school boards. Number two, not just school boards, but I'm saying anything that gets close to the— I used to have a rule when I was mayor.

51:01You better be very smart and strategic about it. It gets to the front door or the back door of the house. So my thing is I happen to think, like 1994, like 2006, like 2010, and like 2018, this is going to be a wave election. If you want to set up 2028, make sure in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that you have every office from top to bottom have a person registered as a Democrat or an independent running under the Democrat line. Even if they've got no chance to win, they need to be running, you're saying? When you have a wave election, the rule I've always had in politics— Oh, in a wave, maybe they do.

51:44Okay. The rule I've had in politics, when you think it's bad, it's worse. When you think it's good, it's better. Where I'm sitting today, good is going to look like better. Could change. Ten months to go. But let's just take the news today. Here's how I would see this. He's all focused on Greenland. I want to focus on groceries. You want to focus on Venezuela? I want to focus on Virginia. Number two, there's a consequence him focused not on groceries and him focused on Greenland. And drive that home. He's not looking at your paycheck. He's looking at his checkbook. Every time. Take a look at what he is doing and may untie the fact that the Republicans are not constraining him, not refocusing him.

52:35But it's going to come to you in an electric bill. It's going to come to you in a health care bill. And it's going to come to the fact that your child, who did everything right, is now living in the basement and can't find a job. Rahm Emanuel, thanks so much. Yeah. Enjoyed the conversation. We got a thousand more questions to go. We do. We do. We'll do those afterward or the next time you come by. Thank you. Thank you, Steve. This has been a special edition of Up First from NPR News. It's one of our all-platform interviews. It's a podcast, it's video, and it's on the radio at NPR's Morning Edition.

53:08This episode was edited by Rina Advani. It was produced by Barry Gordimer and Katie Kline. We get engineering support from Robert Rodriguez, and our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Our executive producer is Jay Shaler. I'm Steve Inskeep. Join us again.