Russia-Ukraine 1000 Days, Hong Kong Activists Sentenced, Trump And Your Money

0:02It's been a thousand days since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has devastated Ukraine and transformed life in Russia. How much further could it escalate as Moscow warns that U.S. missiles could trigger a nuclear response? I'm Leila Faudel. That's Michelle Martin. And this is Up First from NPR News. In Hong Kong, dozens of pro-democracy activists are sentenced to prison under a national security law that critics say has crushed dissent. Why was a political poll considered a threat? And what message is China sending with these verdicts? And President-elect Trump is laying out big promises for tax cuts.

0:38We will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security penalties. Sounds appealing, but could his plan blow a hole in the federal budget? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

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1:39So Mint Mobile is offering premium wireless starting at just$15 a month. To get your new phone plan for just$15, go to mintmobile.com slash switch. This message comes from Warby Parker. Prescription eyewear that's expertly crafted and unexpectedly affordable. Glasses designed in-house from premium materials starting at just$95, including prescription lenses. Stop by a Warby Parker store near you. Today marks 1 ,000 days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. The war forced the displacement of millions of Ukrainians from their homes. It's led to the death and maiming of hundreds of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

2:18But the war has also brought immense changes to life in Russia, and in the past hours, a possibly significant development. Joining us to talk about this is NPR's Moscow correspondent Charles Maines. He's reported out of Russia since the beginning of the conflict, and he's here to tell us more about. There's Charles, good morning. Hi there. So before we get to the thousand days, tell us what you can about this breaking news. Well, Russia's defense ministry today said Ukraine had carried out its first attacks on Russian territory using American-made long-range attackums. Now, according to the ministry, Ukraine fired six of these missiles on Russia's western Bryonsk region, five of which Russian air defenses destroyed mid-flight, and the sixth the ministry claimed to have downed.

2:58No injuries were reported, and we don't have any word from Kiev yet. But if the claim is true, it would appear to be the direct result of the Biden administration's decision, reported by NPR and others, that it had lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range western weapons to target inside Russia. Has there been any response from the Kremlin? Well, not directly, but Russian President Vladimir Putin today signed a decree updating his country's nuclear doctrine, in effect expanding Russia's options for carrying out a nuclear strike in what would appear a response to the U.S.'s decision. Under the new changes, Russia now reserves the right to respond with a nuclear strike to a conventional attack by countries supported by a nuclear power.

3:40Now, I should add, these changes had been previously announced, but it's hard not to see the timing of its signing as a coincidence. Meanwhile, as all this is happening, we are marking 1 ,000 days since Russia first launched its full-scale invasion. You've been living there. How do you think the war has changed the country? Well, it's transformed Russia utterly. Everything from its geopolitics, where Russia now embraces military alliances with anti-Western rogue states like Iran and North Korea, to its domestic political culture. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, was never a liberal bastion, question, but the repressions of seemingly any dissent since the war started make the earlier Putin years seem comparatively free.

4:18And then there's the economy. Today, Russia is the world's most sanctioned state, but those are largely Western-imposed sanctions. So big-name Western companies like McDonald's, Apple, and Starbucks, they've all left. But the country has pivoted to new markets and new trade partners, often in China. So the result is that most of what you buy and what you say, read and watch, it's all changed. So do we have a sense of what Russians think about all this? I mean, you've very much described just kind of the repressive political atmosphere there. But is there any way to know how Russians feel about the war, how they feel about all the changes it's brought?

4:53Yeah, you know, the government claims that Russian society is united behind the war effort. And state polls would support that. But some would certainly point to the repressions that you mentioned. You know, meanwhile, we've got tens of thousands of Russians who fled the country in opposition to the war, thousands more who've gone to jail for civil disobedience at home. And just in conversations I have regularly with people who aren't government critics or politically active per se, they just tell me they wish the whole thing would end. And, of course, President-elect Trump is going to be returning to the White House.

5:22He has said that he will negotiate with Putin to end the war. Do we have a sense of how this is being seen in Russia? You know, I think it's fair to say there's been a surging confidence in Moscow with Trump's suggestions that he may end military support to Ukraine, a big part of it. But there's also just a feeling that Russia, which faced repeat setbacks early on in the war, can now just outlast Ukraine, whatever Trump ends up doing. That is NPR's Charles Mainz in Moscow. Charles, thank you. Thank you.

5:56Hong Kong's government, which is controlled by China, sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to prison sentences of up to 10 years each. Yeah, they were found guilty of subversion of state power this year in a landmark court case that governments, including the U.S., have condemned for criminalizing free speech and political activity. The activists were sentenced for their roles in an unofficial primary poll held in 2020. And parents Emily Fang covered that primary and the months of anti-government protests from Hong Kong leading up to the arrests of these activists. And she's with us now to tell us more about it.

6:29Good morning, Emily. Good morning. Would you first tell us about this primary poll? Why is it considered subversion? Well, they're essentially being sentenced today for subversion for trying to win an election. They wanted to pick the most popular candidates, And so they held this poll that you just mentioned, and 600 ,000 plus people took part. That poll was supposed to pick the most competitive candidates, and it was a watershed moment. It was a moment when this pro-democracy coalition really felt like they had a chance of actually winning a legislative seat in Hong Kong, and they were well organized, and they enjoyed popular backing.

7:02But that's what is being called subversion now under Beijing's national security law, because this coalition could actually have won a legislative seat. Ultimately, we know what happened. Half a year later, nearly everyone who helped organize that poll or was a candidate in that poll has been arrested. So what does this tell us about the political direction of Hong Kong? It tells us that what was once this lively, often rambunctious civil society in Hong Kong is now entirely leaderless because almost all of the most influential activists there are now facing years more behind bars. Among those sentences today was Joshua Wong.

7:38You may recognize him when he was just a teenager. He was leading big protests demanding direct democratic elections back in 2014 and what's now called the Umbrella Movement. Well, he's facing multiple charges, but today he just got another four-year, eight-month sentence. And another person who got sentenced today is Benny Tai. He's a former professor who really conceptualized the Umbrella Movement, a veteran protest organizer, and he got the longest sentence today for organizing that 2020 primary. He is facing now a decade behind bars. So today's sentencing really shows how worn down these activists are as well, because among the 45 sentenced, about three-fourths of them pled guilty because they wanted to reduce their sentence times.

8:17They've been waiting almost four years behind bars already. Wow. Has the Chinese government responded in some way to this? They've stayed quiet today, but their line has been unequivocal from the start. In Beijing's view, the people arrested under this national security law are troublemakers. They are criminals who incited violent protests that diminished Hong Kong as a global financial center. And so they've applauded the security law that's nabbed these 45 people and said it is a much needed measure to return Hong Kong to order. So given all you've told us about just the level of repression there, is there any way to know about how people in Hong Kong are feeling about this?

8:52And might there be any more protests? There will likely not be protests. We've seen what happened to people who have continued to protest. They are mostly now in prison. So likely no public defiance, but perhaps some private defiance. Gwyneth Ho, who rose to prominence as a journalist and then became an activist, she was one of the people sentenced today with a seven-year prison sentence. Supporters of hers released a statement on Facebook in which she actually expressed pride at what she had achieved. And she said for these values, it was worth to dare to act. And that's why she, quote, dared to suffer.

9:24That is NPR's Emily Fang. Emily, thank you. Thank you.

9:35On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised to put more money back in Americans' pockets by cutting their taxes. Here he is at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, the day before the election. My plan will massively cut taxes for workers and small businesses. And we will have no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits. So what will a second Trump presidency mean for your taxes? It might mean a lower tax bill, but it could have drastic consequences for the national budget. Here to explain all this is Laurel Wamsley, who covers personal finance for NPR. Good morning, Laurel.

10:13Hey, Michelle. OK, so Trump is making a lot of promises about taxes. What's the most important thing for people to know? Well, the biggest thing is that Trump is very likely to extend the big tax changes that he pushed through in 2017. That was a pretty sweeping law, and it did lower most people's tax bills. For households that, say, make$60 ,000 to$100 ,000 a year, extending these tax cuts means that those folks get to keep about$1 ,000 extra a year. But wealthy people saw the most benefit. For those who make more than a million dollars, it means reducing their taxes on average by about$70 ,000.

10:47And there are also big corporate tax cuts as part of that package, too. But all these cuts are expensive. Extending the 2017 law could increase the national debt by more than$4 trillion over the next 10 years. And that really matters. Less tax revenue coming in means cutting government programs, for example. Let's talk about some of Trump's other proposals. For instance, no taxes on tips. What sort of impact would that have? Yeah, this is a tax cut that made big headlines, but it only impacts a small part of the labor market, only about 2.5 % of all jobs. And many tipped workers, over a third of them, earn so little that they already don't pay federal income tax.

11:26So now there aren't too many details on how exactly all of this would work, but eliminating tax on tips would probably lead to some kind of squirrely effects. For example, say I hire a guy to trim the tree at my house, and that's something I usually pay him$500 to do. Now he might tell me that it costs$300 to trim my tree, but that he expects a$200 tip, knowing that he won't be taxed on that portion of the income. We could see tipping proliferate into places we haven't seen it before. And employers could also attempt to reclassify employees as tipped workers and drop their pay to the tipped minimum wage.

11:59And for that, the federal minimum wage right now is$2.13 an hour. And like the 2017 tax cuts, this would blow another hole in the federal budget. This one would cost us about$100 billion over 10 years. Trump also says he would stop taxing Social Security benefits. What sort of effects would we see from that? Well, for most current retirees, it wouldn't have any effect. Only about 40 % of people who get Social Security pay federal income tax on it. But again, the effects of this change would be huge, and it would make things worse for those of us who are still years away from drawing Social Security.

12:33That's because a big chunk of those taxes on Social Security goes straight into funding the Social Security Trust Fund. So eliminating these taxes means reducing the money that's available for Social Security. And that's a program that's already at risk. If no one pays taxes on their Social Security benefits, that fund is going to run out sooner, perhaps two years earlier than it's already on track to do. That is NPR's Laurel Wamsley. Laurel, thank you. You're welcome.

13:02And that's Up First for Tuesday, November 19th. I'm Michelle Martin. And I'm Leila Fahdil. For your next listen, you should consider Consider This from NPR. President-elect Trump suggested that in his second term, he'll take on the news media with more than just words. How might he do it and how will the press respond? Listen to Consider This from NPR. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Ryland Barton, Kevin Drew, Rafael Nam, Mohamed El-Bardisi and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziyad Baj, Nia Dumas and Milton Guevara. We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent and our technical director is Zach Coleman.

13:36We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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