Stakes of Trump's China Trip, Inflation Report Shows War Impact, Hantavirus Science

0:02President Trump is leaving for Beijing today for a state visit with China's President Xi Jinping. One analyst says it'll look polite on the surface, but it'll be a rugby match underneath. Trade is on the agenda, so is the war in Iran. I'm Michelle Martin, that's A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. A new inflation report out this morning will show just how much the war in Iran is impacting consumers. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has driven gas prices up. Airline tickets are also climbing. Have wages kept up? And public health officials say the Hantavirus outbreak that started on a cruise ship is not the next COVID.

0:38But there's still no vaccine and no specific treatment for it. We'll hear how the virus spreads. Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

0:51This message comes from iXL. iXL's Level Up Diagnostic gives immediate benchmark results along with personalized action plans that link directly to iXL's skill practice. More at iXL.com slash NPR. This message comes from Mattress Firm. When your partner can't stay still, your sleep feels it too. Mattress Firm's sleep experts are trained to match you with the right mattress for how you actually sleep, like the Tempur-Pedic Adapt, designed to absorb motion so you can rest more deeply. For the great sleep you deserve, visit Mattress Firm and save up to$500 on select Tempur-Pedic adjustable mattress sets.

1:30They make sleep easy. Restrictions apply. See mattressfirm.com or store for details. This message comes from BetterHelp. As a dad, BetterHelp president Fernando Madera relates to needing flexibility when it comes to scheduling therapy. I have kids under 18, so like time is very limited. That's why at BetterHelp, or therapists try to have sessions sometimes at night, depending on the therapist or during the weekend. So I think that's what we need to tell the parents. You are not alone. We can help you out. If a flexible schedule would help you, visit BetterHelp.com slash NPR for 10 % off your first month of online therapy.

2:11President Trump says he has a great relationship with China's President Xi Jinping. That relationship will be put to the test this week during Trump's visit to Beijing. Look, I respect him a lot. And hopefully he respects me. That was Trump Monday in the Oval Office. The White House is keeping expectations for the trip tame. Trade is a major agenda item, but the war with Iran is also likely to get attention. NPR senior political correspondent Tamara Keith is on the line with us now before traveling to China on Air Force One. Good morning, Tam. Good morning. So what is Trump looking to get out of this trip?

2:44Well, China is known for putting on a spectacular show for visiting leaders, which is something Trump clearly wants and is likely to get. There will be bilateral meetings, a tea, a grand banquet, and a no doubt spectacular welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People. This is what Trump said about his expectations earlier this year. That's going to be a wild one. I said, but we have to put on the biggest display you've ever had in the history of China. You know, last time I went to China, President Xi, he treated me so well. Now, in terms of substance, that is less clear. The White House says Trump intends to deliver more good deals on behalf of the country to rebalance trade with China.

3:27They are expected to discuss the idea of a U.S.-China Board of Trade, which would represent a further cooling of what had been a very active and escalating trade war during Trump's first year back in office. So what might be in those deals that the White House is talking about? Observers expect China to announce purchases of additional soybeans and other farm products, and maybe even Boeing airplanes. Announcing big purchase agreements is a trademark of Trump foreign trips, but these things have often turned out to be less than meets the eye. More than a dozen big-name corporate executives are traveling as part of the U.S.

4:07delegation, including Apple's Tim Cook, Tesla's Elon Musk, and Kelly Ortberg, the CEO of Boeing. But Melanie Hart, the senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, says there are still meetings happening this week to lay the groundwork for Trump's trip. Everything is still in flux. At this point, normally, at least the economic deliverables would be nailed in. That is not the case. So this is going to be evolving up until the last minute. She says this summit will look polite on the surface, But tactically, it's going to be a rugby match with both sides grappling for advantage.

4:44And that is quite an image. But what are they grappling over? What are they not grappling over? The experts I've spoken to say both sides want to stabilize the relationship. Otherwise, this visit wouldn't have gone ahead in the shadow of the Iran War. But they have very different goals. Dennis Wilder is a professor at Georgetown University who was a top advisor on China to President George W. Bush. The world's greatest power, the world's greatest emerging power inevitably are in conflict and particularly because the value systems are so different. While other presidents scolded Xi about human rights and warned him to leave Taiwan alone, Trump has at least publicly been more focused on deals and admiration for the power that President Xi wields within China.

5:33It's worth noting, this is just the first of what could be four meetings between the leaders this year, depending on how this one goes. That's NPS Tamara Keith. Tam, thank you. And safe travels. You're welcome.

5:50A new report on inflation this morning will show how much the war with Iran is affecting consumer prices. Higher gasoline prices are the most visible fallout from the war in the U.S., but that's not the only place where consumers are feeling the pain. NPR's Scott Horsley is here. Scott, energy prices are spiking because oil is not getting out of the Strait of Hormuz. So how is that affecting the overall cost of living? Good morning, A. We've all seen the impact of the gas pump. AAA says the average price of regular gas today is$4.50 a gallon. That's up more than a buck and a half since the war began.

6:22And that's expected to be a significant driver of inflation in April, just as it was in March. Forecasters think the annual inflation rate last month climbed to 3.7, maybe 3.8 percent. If so, that would be the highest inflation we've seen in at least two and a half years. So what kind of ripple effects are those high energy prices having? One of the most obvious side effects so far is the jump in the cost of airline tickets and baggage fees. Airlines are having to pay a lot more for jet fuel, and they are beginning to pass that cost on to customers. That's forcing some business travelers to rethink their travel plans.

6:57It could also cut into some vacation travel, perhaps not right away, but as people make plans for later in the year. My colleague Stephen Basaha spoke to a travel advisor who says reservations for fall travel are down. And, you know, some people are opting to just stay closer to home. Ultimately, the high cost of diesel fuel could affect the price of everything that gets delivered by truck or train. But Josh Hurt, who's a senior economist at Vanguard, says that'll depend on how long this wartime price spike lasts. To really start bleeding through into, you know, more wide-scale use in the economy, we don't anticipate seeing that unless we really have a prolonged period of higher energy prices.

7:35Right now, the cost of diesel fuel is up nearly$2 a gallon since the war began. There's only so long businesses can absorb those higher transportation costs before they start to show up in the price of other goods. Welcome to Living in California, with gas prices are always high here. So is the war the only factor pushing inflation higher? No. Today's report is also expected to show an uptick in housing costs, and that's important because housing is such a big component of the government's cost of living index. Some of that April increase in housing cost is real. Some, though, is a statistical quirk that stems from the government shutdown last fall.

8:09There was a gap in data for October, and so housing inflation looked artificially low for a while. Hertz says, by contrast, today's report is going to show housing inflation looks higher than usual. We would look at that largely as catch-up for the under-reporting that we had in October. We would expect it to start to revert back and normalize next month. So take that housing inflation figure today with a grain of salt. All right. Now, the Federal Reserve has been trying for years to bring down inflation. Now it's moving up again. So how worrisome is that? Yeah, this is not exactly the welcome math that Kevin Warsh, President Trump's pick to be the new leader of the Fed, was hoping for.

8:46Unfortunately for Warsh and other Fed policymakers, there's not a whole lot they can do to address this energy supply shock given their limited toolkit. The Fed typically fights inflation by raising interest rates, but that's not going to free up tanker traffic in the Strait of Formos or boost the supply of jet fuel. Of course, President Trump has been pushing the central bank to lower interest rates, and that's looking less likely for now. We could see a rate cut if it looked as if the job market were falling apart, but the jobs report we got last week showed no sign of that. Employers added 115 ,000 jobs in April.

9:17So for the time being, it looks like the Fed is just going to keep interest rates where they are. By the way, that jobs report also showed that average wages in April were up 3.6 % from a year ago. So if today's cost of living report comes in as expected, that means all of those wage gains over the last year have been gobbled up by higher prices. That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks a lot. You're welcome.

9:48The Hansa virus outbreak that started on a cruise ship is not the next COVID. Now, that's according to public health experts. The risk to the public at large is extremely low, but this is a transmissible disease and, of course, a worry to the ship's passengers. NPR's Gabriela Emanuel joins us. So why are experts saying this is not the next COVID? The biggest reason is hantavirus does not spread from one person to another that easily. Now, people usually get it when they inhale virus particles from infected rodent feces, urine or saliva. But when it does spread from one person to the next, you need to be in quite close contact.

10:28So think of a household or a nurse caring for a patient. Although I should know from one well-documented outbreak in Argentina a few years back, we do know that it has the potential to spread in settings like a birthday party or a funeral. Scott Weaver of the University of Texas Medical Branch told me that if there are no precautions taken, then one person will spread it to two other people on average. Compare that with COVID, where the number has changed over time, but it has risen above 10 people. And for measles, 15 other people get it from one case on average. So we are confident this hantavirus outbreak can be contained.

11:10This is pretty close to the lower end of infectiousness, but it's high enough that we do have to take these kind of measures to prevent further spread. Measures like monitoring, masking, hand-washing. And another distinction from COVID, the time between being exposed to the virus and becoming contagious and sick is long, often multiple weeks. That can be annoying because you have to watch for symptoms, but it gives medical experts time to get a handle on the outbreak. All right, so not the next COVID, but how serious is it for people who have it? It's serious. In this outbreak, we have nine cases so far, three deaths, according to the World Health Organization.

11:51Authorities say in general, between 30 and 40 percent of patients die. Basically, what happens is their lungs fill up with fluid. However, that fatality rate is likely significantly lower because many mild cases go undetected. But it's still a big percentage and there's no vaccine or specific treatment. And another thing that makes this virus serious is the early symptoms are very generic flu-like symptoms like a fever or muscle aches, meaning it can be hard to know when you need to isolate and get medical attention. What else do we know about how it spreads? Yeah, so it starts spreading right around the onset of symptoms and in very close contact.

12:33Yet scientists can't say definitively if it's droplets in the air or the virus lives on surfaces. What we do know is this hantavirus does not attack the upper respiratory tract or even respiratory cells as much as it attacks the blood vessels, which impact the lungs in the lower respiratory tract. That's likely part of why it does not transmit as easily as, say, the common cold. But scientists still need to learn more. Dr. Weaver actually had a grant from the federal government to study hantavirus, and the grant was terminated last May by the Trump administration. That worries Weaver. He says more investment, not less, is needed.

13:13You mentioned an outbreak in Argentina a few years ago. What was learned then? It happened in 2018-2019, and one man spread the virus to 33 other people with 11 deaths total. So deadly, but not huge. Researchers found that the genetic makeup of that virus was almost exactly the same as in an outbreak two decades earlier, meaning this hantavirus does not seem to mutate quickly. That's good news insofar as it's a known virus. And with the right public health precautions, it shouldn't spread too far. That's NPR's Gabriela Emanuel. Thank you very much. Thank you.

13:58And that's Up First for Tuesday, May 12th. I'm E. Martinez. And I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Raphael Nam, Giselle Grayson, Mohamed Elbardisi, and Olivia Hampton. It was produced by Zia Butch and Nia Dumas. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hainas. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our supervising senior producer is Vince Pearson. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

14:42This message comes from Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on big wireless bills, bogus fees, and free perks, Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans at mintmobile.com slash switch. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. Oh, hey there. I'm Brittany Luce. And I don't know, maybe this is a little out of pocket to say, but I think you should listen to my podcast. It's called It's Been a Minute, and I love it. And I think you will too. Over the past couple months, over 100 ,000 new listeners started tuning in. Find out why. Listen to the It's Been a Minute podcast from NPR today.

15:24This message comes from Mercy Corps. Your support helps deliver life-changing support in over 35 countries. Visit mercycorps.org slash donate. That's mercy, C-O-R-P-S dot org slash donate to build a stronger tomorrow.