Trump-Iran Ceasefire, Iran On Trump's Reversal, Markets React To Reopening Of Hormuz

0:02President Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran shortly before his self-imposed deadline to end its civilization.

0:09David Greene:Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is too open for two weeks during negotiations. I'm Leila Fawadil, that's Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. What exactly is in the agreement that stops the war? Iranians assert the U.S. agreed to negotiate final terms on the basis of their proposal. President Trump did not get the regime change he called for. Israel says the ceasefire does not include its invasion of Lebanon. Also, what does a ceasefire mean for global markets? Oil prices went up Tuesday morning, then quickly fell as the news spread. Analysts warn the damage to oil infrastructure will keep prices elevated.

0:48David Greene:Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day. Thank you. the importance of providing a comprehensive approach for clients. From investment management to tax minimization to estate planning, you name it, we have a sizable, deep team with a diverse skill set, decades of knowledge and experience in the financial markets. And that team is who actually develops and deploys the plan for each of our clients. Learn more at FisherInvestments.com. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss. This message comes from NPR sponsor, BetterHelp. Financial stress affects more than just your bank account.

1:55David Greene:It can impact your sleep, your relationships, and your overall mental health. If money worries are weighing on you, you're not alone, and it doesn't mean you've failed. Therapy isn't about financial advice. It's about working through the anxiety, shame, or overwhelming thoughts that money stress can bring. When life feels overwhelming, Therapy can help. Get 10 % off at BetterHelp.com slash NPR. President Trump made apocalyptic threats and then backed off. The United States agreed to stop its war against Iran. The president posted on social media that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the condition that Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

2:35Israel says it supports the ceasefire with Iran, but that Lebanon is not included in the deal.

2:41David Greene:That, of course, is where Israeli forces are operating. NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordonez has been following all this. Franco, good morning. Good morning, Steve. Okay, reality show cliffhanger again. Threat to destroy civilization in Iran in the morning. That's what the president said. And then this agreement in the evening. What do you make of this? Yeah, Steve, it's quite the walking back from his bombastic post yesterday and over the weekend when he used the F word telling Iran to open the strait. I mean, yesterday was really a busy day of deal making. Trump wrote that he made the decision based on conversations with the prime minister of Pakistan, who had been pressing Trump to back down from his threats.

3:18David Greene:Trump said the U.S. received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he described as a workable basis on which to negotiate. And he said the U.S. had already met and exceeded all its military objectives. Okay, so now they're going to talk on Iranian terms, and Iran keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz, although they will allow shipping for a couple of weeks. How significant is this? I mean, I think it's very significant. I mean, Trump often uses kind of this belligerent language, as you know, and these latest threats were really quite breathtaking, even for him. But it's never really a bad thing to avoid the dire scenario that he was painting.

3:56David Greene:But by backing down, Trump does kind of risk damaging his credibility. You know, he's likely to face even more criticism now that he has a reputation of backing down from this most threatening rhetoric. Franco, you followed Trump's whole presidency and, of course, followed this whole war. How did we get to this moment? Yeah, I mean, I think Trump underestimated Iran's resilience, and that's the take of so many analysts, including Nate Swanson, who worked on the Iran portfolio in the Obama administration and early Trump years. I mean, he told me Trump took this position that if he put enough pressure on Iran, caused enough damage, that they'd eventually capitulate.

4:31And in some ways, Iran's obviously weakened and they've been struck, I don't know, 25 ,000 times or whatever the number is now. But strategically, they have a new pillar of their security architecture that didn't exist before this war. And so in some ways, they're stronger.

4:48David Greene:He's talking, of course, about the Strait of Hormuz, which he says is a much more tangible way to inflict immediate pain on the U.S. and global markets. I mean, even Trump's posts seem to acknowledge that Iran now has the power over the strait. I mean, it's really a new tool in Iran's arsenal that they didn't have before. OK, just to review, the president said there would be regime change in Iran, even in recent days claimed that there had been. There hasn't. Iran keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz, although traffic resumes for now. And the negotiation will be on the Iranian proposal. Is that all correct?

5:22David Greene:Yeah, I mean, Trump didn't say actually that he agreed to the 10 points, but he described them kind of as more of a foundation for talks to continue. Trump is meeting with the NATO Secretary General Mark Ruda, where they are expected to be talking about this. But Trump clearly wants the war to end. He later posted that this was a big day for world peace and that Iran can now start the reconstruction process. But he also said, Steve, that the military will be just hanging out to enforce the deal. So we'll see what happens in the next two weeks. Are we back here again? I mean, it's really potentially an ugly cycle.

5:59David Greene:NPR White House correspondent Frank Ordonez, thanks as always. Thank you. Now, we just heard some of the details of that ceasefire, which came after weeks of rhetoric from the president and from Iran. Yeah, I mean, President Trump had repeatedly, sometimes profanely, threatened Iran's infrastructure, including threatening to bomb the country back to the Stone Age and to end its civilization, while Iran was emphatic in its rejection of any temporary ceasefire. So how are Iranians taking all this? NPR's Deepar Vaz has been watching from Turkey's border with Iran. Hi there. Hey, Steve. What is the reaction in the region where you are?

6:35Well, Iran Foreign Minister Abbas al-Archi posted a statement on X expressing gratitude to Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif for brokering the ceasefire. But a statement made one thing clear, that Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz and any ships that are granted passage over the next two weeks will do so on Iran's terms. And in Iran, expectations are tempered. Former Minister of Communications, Mohammad Javad Ozadi Jaromi, was quoted in one state media outlet warning, experience has shown that the start of negotiations does not mean the end of hostilities, and he urged people there to remain ready and vigilant.

7:11David Greene:I get the impression from social media that Iranians are celebrating. Right, right. So, you know, state media showed images of people jubilantly waving flags in the streets. But, Steve, you know, for many Iranians, a permanent ceasefire would effectively mean the end of any hope they have for real regime change. I spoke to a woman from Tehran who had crossed the border into Turkey a couple of days ago about the potential for a ceasefire. And she didn't want to be name fearing reprisal when she returns home. And here's what she said.

7:43She's addressing Trump directly, saying, you came and you killed many of us. You damaged our infrastructure. And then she went on to add.

7:56She's saying that this war triggered a military coup in Iran, that the country is now being entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard.

8:03David Greene:I just want to note what that means for the layman. And analysts agree with what she says, that people who've ended up in charge in Iran are thought to be more extreme, more against the United States, more hardline than perhaps some of the people who were in power before. So that's one analysis there. But I want to ask about the other front line in this war. There's been fighting in Lebanon. What does the ceasefire mean for that? Well, that's interesting. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif, who helped broker the deal, said on X initially that the ceasefire would include the end of hostilities in Lebanon.

8:37But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a statement this morning saying that while Israel supports the ceasefire, it does not include Lebanon. And that's where Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces have been fighting with Israeli forces with hostilities really escalating in recent weeks. Now, Hezbollah announced this morning that it is abiding by the terms of the ceasefire. And Iran says that exclusion of Lebanon is unacceptable. But an Israeli source not authorized to speak to the media told NPR that President Trump had a phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu before the ceasefire was announced.

9:10And this is domestically a real issue for Netanyahu because opposition leader Yair Lapid said on X that Netanyahu wasn't actually included in these negotiations and called it a political and strategic failure.

9:22David Greene:So what happens now? Well, first, let's see if anyone sticks to the terms, because there were missiles flying into Israel in several Gulf Arab states after the agreement was announced. But U.S. and Iran are to meet in Islamabad on Friday to continue negotiations based on Iran's 10-point proposal. And they're still very far apart on some key points. For instance, Iran wants to continue its control of the Strait of Hormuz and is demanding that its right to enrich uranium be accepted. Iran maintains that its nuclear program is a civilian program, not a military one. But all the same, cessation of enrichment activity is a key demand for U.S.

9:57and Israel. Also, Iran wants a permanent agreement. And here's where the trust issues come into play. Because, of course, during his first term, President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the last nuclear deal the U.S. negotiated with Iran.

10:10David Greene:Dee Parvaz, thanks so much. Thanks for having me. Okay, oil prices are falling this morning, as you would imagine. Global investors are absorbing the news of this ceasefire and an end for the moment of a threat to bomb Iran's power plants and bridges. Asian and European markets rallied, with Japan's Nikkei gaining the most in almost a year. On Wall Street, Dow futures are up more than 1 ,000 points ahead of the markets open. Sounds pretty good. Let's talk it through, though, with NPR's Maria Aspen. Good morning. Good morning. OK, what are investors seeing and feeling? So there is a whole lot of relief out there, but I hate to throw some cold water on this.

10:48We have to see how long it will last because this is just the latest twist in what's already been a really turbulent spring for Wall Street and global markets. Investors are swinging from hope to fear and back again. Last week, Wall Street had its best day since last spring, but stocks are still down since the start of the year, and U.S. markets just ended their worst quarter in nearly four years.

11:13David Greene:Yeah, I was just looking at this chart. It's a steady path downward. Has that just been about the war? There is more going on in the markets, but Steve, the war is absolutely the biggest story right now. It's already created an energy crisis with the virtual shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. And as you know, that's made oil prices soar, which affects not only what we pay at the gas pump, but also what companies pay for shipping and trucking. And that then increases what we as consumers pay for everything. And then meanwhile, as President Trump makes threats and then de-escalates the war, there's just been this tremendous whiplash on Wall Street as markets sell off and then rally.

11:54I talked about all this last week with Katie Klingensmith. She's the chief investment strategist for the financial advisor Edelman Financial Engines. What we often see during times of heightened uncertainty and volatility is we'll see a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets and a big day in markets and a terrible day in markets. Nobody enjoys that. And as she points out, that can make everyone just not sure what to do next, whether we're talking investors on Wall Street or all of us on Main Street.

12:23David Greene:Let's just talk about reality here, though. The president says extreme things all the time and then backs away almost all the time. Why have investors this year been reacting in such extreme ways? sell, buy. Well, the Iran war is a little different than all the tariffs whiplash we saw last year. I mean, what happens next in this case is not just up to the president. A lot does depend on how Iran responds to what he does. And the war has already had that real impact on gas and diesel prices. That's maybe more immediate than the price spikes we saw with some of the more extreme tariffs Trump unveiled a year ago and then kind of moderated.

13:01A war is also just harder to unwind than tariffs. This is how Klingensmith puts it. We are likely to see higher oil prices, even if we see a quick de-escalation of the conflict, because there has been extensive structural damage done to oil refineries and infrastructure in the Middle East. And as she points out, that damage will take a lot more time to fix, even if the war ends tomorrow.

13:26David Greene:Are investors and observers ever suspicious about the way the president keeps moving the markets up and down? Well, some investors tell me this is just what Trump does and says. This is how he negotiates. And they're trying to shrug off the noise and remain focused on what else is going on in the economy. But what the president does and says still has real impact in the markets. His threat yesterday to wipe out civilization pushed markets down. The ceasefire seems likely to push them back up. And to your point, Steve, this is a pattern that we've seen a few times since the war began. And observers have noticed a lot of well-timed stock trades in both traditional markets and the newer prediction markets.

14:05David Greene:And Piers-Marie Aspin, thanks so much. Thank you.

14:12David Greene:And that's Up First for this Wednesday, April 8th. I'm Steve Inskeep. And I'm Leila Faldin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Rebecca Metzler, Jerry Holmes, Rafael Nam, Mohamed El-Bradisi, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziyad Butch and Ava Pukac. Our director is Katie Klein. We get engineering support from Nisha Highness. Our technical director is Carly Strange. And our supervising producer is Michael Lipkin. Join us again tomorrow.

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