Trump's Blockade, Israel-Lebanon Talks, Hungary's Orbán Out

0:02Ayesha Rascoe:President Trump announced a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like. Hours of peace talks with Iran ended without a breakthrough. I'm Michelle Martin. That's A. Martinez. And this is Up First from NPR News. Israeli strikes continued in Lebanon this weekend, even after Trump told Israel to, quote, low-key it. Ambassadors from Israel and Lebanon will meet face-to-face in Washington tomorrow. But a Hezbollah commander tells NPR the group has no intention of disarming. And President Trump's strongman ally in Hungary, Viktor Orban, is out after 16 years in power.

0:41Voters turned down record numbers. So what does it mean for Hungary's relationship with the rest of Europe? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

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1:57Ayesha Rascoe:President Trump is trying to ramp up pressure on Iran. The president declared Sunday that the U.S. is going to impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. He announced this just hours after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to produce a breakthrough. For more, we're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myrie. Greg, did the president explain how exactly this blockade would work? Yeah, the president didn't really provide many details, but he said it won't take long for the U.S. to clean out the strait. The U.S. military central command said the blockade against ships going to or from Iranian ports would take effect at 10 a.m.

2:32Eastern time today. Trump first announced the blockade in a Truth Social post, and then he spoke about it in an interview on Fox News. We're putting on a complete blockade. We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like or whatever it is. So Iran is benefiting in several ways by keeping the strait mostly closed. It's clearly frustrating Trump. It's driving up world oil prices. And Iran also makes money on the limited amount of oil that's getting through. Some of it is believed to be Iranian oil. And Iran also charges foreign ships up to two million dollars to pass through the strait.

3:12Okay. Now, does the United States have enough naval forces in place to actually enforce this blockade? You know, apparently so. The U.S. does have a sizable Navy presence. There's somewhere around 15 ships in the region, including one aircraft carrier group with another one nearby. Iran is believed to have placed mines in the strait, and a U.S. official who's not authorized to speak publicly told NPR's Tom Bowman that mine sweepers will also be used. Only a few ships go through the strait now on most days. It's way down from the more than 100 ships a day before the war. So the U.S. Navy can certainly keep track of a few massive, slow-moving, unarmed commercial ships.

3:55But there are still lots of unknowns. You know, will any ship try to break a U.S. blockade? And if so, how will the U.S. respond? The main threat will be from Iran. The country's Revolutionary Guard said if a warship approaches the strait, it would be viewed as a ceasefire violation. and Iran would deliver a severe response. So because of all this, is it fair to suggest that Trump's decision here means that the U.S.-Iran peace talks in Pakistan did not go well? Yeah, I mean, a blockade certainly doesn't improve the atmosphere for peace talks. Trump seems to be betting that increased pressure will force Iran to make concessions, but Iran seems to feel it's in a pretty strong negotiating position.

4:33It withstood weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli bombing. Those airstrikes didn't force Iran to reopen the straits. So why would a U.S. blockade? Vice President J.D. Vance led that U.S. delegation that met Iran for 21 hours on Saturday and into Sunday morning in Islamabad, Pakistan. But Vance said afterward that Iran chose, quote, not to accept our terms. No word yet on if there will be additional talks. Considering, Greg, that there appears to be no clear breakthrough in sight, what kind of a political risk is this for President Trump? Yeah, Trump's in a bind. He wants to end the war and reopen the strait.

5:10But how? He clearly liked to do it quickly through negotiations. But he said yesterday, quote, I want everything. I don't want 90%. I don't want 95%. I told him I want everything. And of course, Iran is still demanding concessions. So his other option would be to restart the war. But a military escalation doesn't come with a guarantee of success. That's NPR's Greg Myrie. Greg, thanks a lot. Sure thing, eh? Oil prices have surged past$100 a barrel after a breakdown of U.S.-Iran peace talks and President Trump's threats to blockade Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz.

5:44Ayesha Rascoe:It is straining an already shaky ceasefire across the Middle East. Attacks continue unabated in one country, Lebanon. Israel continues to target Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters there. Lebanese authorities say a Red Cross paramedic is among the more than 100 people killed in a weekend of Israeli attacks. NPR's Lauren Freyer is in the capital of Beirut. Lauren, there is a regional ceasefire. But while the U.S. and Israel insist Lebanon is exempt, Israel has continued to attack that country. That's right. Israeli airstrikes have hit across the south of Lebanon and in border villages where Israel says it's seizing territory from Lebanon to create what it calls a buffer zone where Hezbollah can't fire cross-border rockets.

6:24Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu actually crossed into that zone yesterday, wore a flak jacket, stood on Lebanese soil, and said Lebanese will not be allowed to return to their homes. As you know, more than a million people have been displaced by this Israeli invasion, mostly from that southern region. Netanyahu's defense minister was there with him as well, said the goal is to do to Lebanon what Israel did to Gaza. He said they're destroying homes so that Hezbollah cannot use them. And the Lebanese government says Israel has already destroyed around 40 ,000 homes in the past 35 days.

6:58As you mentioned in the latest attacks, a Lebanese Red Cross ambulance team, the Red Cross says they were directly targeted by an Israeli drone, killing one paramedic and wounding another. The Lebanese government says Israeli attacks have killed at least 87 medics in the past six weeks. Human rights groups call this a war crime. Now, sea stocks are set for tomorrow in Washington between the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors. How do people view those? They're really viewed as historic. I mean, these are the first direct government talks since 1983. A lot of people weren't alive the last time these two governments had contact.

7:31Israel and Lebanon are sworn enemies. It's the Lebanese government that is conducting these talks. But Hezbollah, which is the combatant and really a big power broker in Lebanon, does not support the talks. Hezbollah held a big rally here this weekend, filling several Beirut city blocks. Now, not everyone supports Hezbollah. Some Lebanese blame the group for dragging them into yet another war. But amid these constant Israeli attacks, at this rally, I met people like this man Khalil Harb, who says he wouldn't normally be part of Hezbollah's Shiite Muslim base. I drink. I'm not religious. I don't pray.

8:05But I know concerning issues related to Israel, I'm with Hezbollah, of course. People at the rally told me the real turning point came last week with this Israeli barrage of attacks on what locals are calling Black Wednesday. More than 350 people killed in a single day, many in central Beirut, even along the city's waterfront, not Hezbollah strongholds. Now, Israel says one of its goals for those talks is to get Hezbollah to drop its weapons and disarm. Now, you recently got a rare account from inside that group. I did. I interviewed a veteran Hezbollah field commander. He gave only his nom de ger jihad out of fear Israel would track and kill him, as it has many of his comrades.

8:45We spoke by phone, but not on his own device. He says Hezbollah stopped using most electronics. He described passing handwritten notes on the battlefield through couriers on motorbikes. And he gave us this rare account of the group's org chart. He says there's much more direct control from Iran now. He told me that they never really disarmed after previous wars with Israel, relinquished only decoy weapons and hid their real arsenal underground. As you mentioned, disarming Hezbollah is one of Israel's demands in these talks in Washington. That's NPR's Lauren Freyer in Beirut. Lauren, thanks. You're welcome.

9:27In Hungary, voters turned out in record numbers on Sunday to put an end to strongman leader Viktor Orban's 16-year hold on power. And last night, people in Budapest poured onto the streets to celebrate.

9:45Ayesha Rascoe:Just days ago, President Trump, an ally of Orban's, sent Vice President J.D. Vance to Budapest to try to give the Hungarian prime minister an electoral boost. But Orban's challenger, a 45-year-old conservative named Peter Magyar and his center-right TISA party, won in a landslide. NPR's Rob Schmitz joins us live from Budapest. Rob, I mean, all the signs were pointing toward this result, but now that it actually happened, I mean, how big of a surprise is it to people in Hungary? Yeah, for weeks, polls were showing that Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party were trailing the TISA party's Peter Magyar, but most Hungarians I spoke with in the days leading up to the election did not think Orban would lose, and that's because of who he is.

10:24Or Viktor Orban is the longest-serving prime minister in the European Union, and in his 16 years in power. He's changed the constitution in so many ways. They were all meant to keep him and his party in power. But yesterday, he failed spectacularly. Yeah, by a wide margin. How did that happen? So he lost so badly yesterday that his opponent, Peter Magyar, and his center-right party now have more than two-thirds of the seats in the Hungarian parliament. It's a super majority that will allow Magyar to push forward his agenda to re-democratize Hungary. And it will also allow him to reverse the changes that Orban has made to Hungary's constitution.

11:01And the reason that Magyar got that many votes was because nearly 80 % of voters turned out yesterday, more than any other election since Hungary adapted democracy after the Cold War. And last night, Magyar thanked his supporters at a massive rally along the banks of the Danube.

11:22And A, he's saying here that Together we brought down the Orban regime. Together we liberated Hungary. Together we took back our homeland. Magyar also vowed to rebuild ties with both the EU and NATO. So on that, then, what does his victory mean for the rest of Europe? So Hungary may be a small country of 9 million people, roughly the size of New Jersey. But under Orban, it had enormous power and influence inside of Europe. Orban used Hungary's membership in the EU to block around$100 billion worth of EU aid to Ukraine. It vetoed budgets and harsh penalties on Russia. The country lodged nearly half of all EU vetoes in the past 15 years.

12:00Orban also used Hungary's EU membership as an entry point for investment and influence from authoritarian countries like Russia, China, Turkey. Orban is close friends with the leaders of all these countries. In fact, members of Orban's government have been caught handing over internal EU memos regarding Ukraine to Russia. But perhaps most importantly, Orban has been a lasting symbol of Europe's populist far-right movement, and he was good friends with President Trump. And this stunning defeat shows the limits to that movement when the people become fed up with a populist hold on power. All right, that's NPR's Rob Schmitz joining us live from Budapest.

12:36Rob, thank you very much. You bet.

12:42And that's up first for Monday, April 13th. I'm Amy Martinez.

12:45Ayesha Rascoe:And I'm Michelle Martin. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Andrew Sussman, Ruth Schillick, Tina Kraja, Mohamed El-Bardisi, and H.J. Mai. It was produced by Zayad Butch and Eva Kukac. Our director is Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Nisha Hainas. Our technical director is Stacey Abbott. We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.

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