Trump's Talk With Putin, Israel's Incursion, Weather Service Budget Cuts

0:00Good morning. We have two hosts in the same studio today. It's very exciting. We're behind in our work, though, because Leila and I were. We were trying to solve the world's problems. Thank you. That's a really nice, high-minded way to say gossiping. We gossiped. We failed. President Trump claimed on social media that he made progress on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He'd been talking with Russia's Vladimir Putin, whose own statement suggested he's in no rush. What's the state of play? I'm Leila Faldin with Steve Inskeep, and this is Up First from NPR News. Three of Israel's allies have warned Israel to end its offensive in Gaza.

0:42They're objecting to an operation that intensified in recent days and an Israeli order for Palestinians to evacuate. How are Israelis responding to the pressure? Also, we've had an active tornado season, which is now a normal tornado season. It used to be kind of unusual to see dozens of them in a day. And now we get that year after year. What evidence, if any, shows a link to climate change? Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.

1:13This message comes from NPR sponsor FX. Presenting The Lowdown, starring Ethan Hawke. Introducing you to Lee Raybon, a quirky journalist slash rare bookstore owner slash unofficial truth seeker who is always on the tail of his latest conspiracy. This time, his most recent expose puts him head-to-head with a powerful family that rules Tulsa, meaning only one thing. He must be on to something big. FX's The Lowdown. All new Tuesdays on FX. Stream on Hulu. Support for NPR and the following message come from Washington Wise. Decisions made in Washington can affect your portfolio every day. Washington Wise from Charles Schwab is an original podcast that unpacks the stories making news in Washington.

1:59Listen at schwab.com slash Washington Wise. This message comes from Schwab. Everyone has moments when they could have done better, like cutting their own hair or forgetting sunscreen. So now you look like a tomato. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education and human help when you need it. Learn more at Schwab.com. President Trump spoke with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin for more than two hours on Monday about ending the war in Ukraine. And then Trump gave an account of the call. I said, when are we going to end this, Vladimir? I've known for a long time now.

2:38I said, when are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath? It's a bloodbath. Trump claimed some success towards peace, but Putin again resisted Trump's calls for an immediate ceasefire. Putin proposed more talks, which would take place even as the war continues. NPR's Charles Maines has been covering all this from Moscow. Hey there, Charles. Morning, Steve. What did this call accomplish? You know, both sides were really complimentary about the tone of the conversation itself, which Trump called excellent and Putin said was constructive and useful. But the two leaders seemed at odds about what had actually been achieved.

3:12Trump took to social media to say Russia had agreed to immediately start ceasefire talks and, more importantly, in Trump's words, seek an end to the war. But in a brief statement to journalists, Putin suggested he was in no hurry.

3:29So here Putin says he agreed with Trump to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a possible future peace deal, but made clear all sorts of details needed to be worked out before they could possibly lead to a ceasefire of some defined length. Moreover, Putin again emphasized that any peace deal would still have to address what he called the root causes of the conflict. That's always been Kremlin speak for Russia's fundamental desire to control Ukraine, and Ukraine knows it. So not really changing any of the demands that Putin has had since 2022. How did Ukraine respond? I think it's first important to point out that Trump held talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky before the Putin conversation and after.

4:08So Trump is certainly giving Zelensky time and attention. But Zelensky has to be sensitive to offending Trump's desire to show progress here, or at least not appear to be seen as an obstacle to peace. All the more so because Trump is also suggesting new business opportunities for both Russia and Ukraine once the fighting ends. So speaking after the call, Zelensky repeated Ukraine's support for a full and immediate ceasefire, even as he really made clear he does not trust Putin's motives in these negotiations or Putin's blurring of the language of peace. Let's listen. But of course, Russia is Russia.

4:43They want something, but they even don't know what they want. And when they say they want something, they want everything. Okay, so hard to see what the progress is, but we do have France, Germany, and the UK, other players here, threatening more sanctions against Russia if Putin doesn't agree to an immediate ceasefire. How do they see all this? You know, Putin's refusal to sign to this ceasefire deal puts Europe in an odd position. You know, do you let Trump's peace efforts play out or risk undermining them with pressure on Moscow now? That said, even if Europe does choose to impose additional sanctions, Russian analysts say the Kremlin fundamentally doesn't see it as a threat.

5:23Here's Ivan Timofeyev of the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow. Sanctions are inflicting harm, but this harm is not critical for macroeconomic stability of Russia. and actually a further escalation of sanctions would hardly be critical as well. So the result, says Timofeyev, is that Russia remains convinced it can simply afford to continue the conflict if or when these peace negotiations break down. So Moscow really sees little incentive to compromise here. Charles, thanks very much for breaking that down. Really appreciate it. Thank you, Steve. NPR's Charles Maines in Moscow.

6:03Okay, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are now at an impasse. That's according to three people briefed on the negotiations who spoke to NPR, and Israel faces unprecedented pressure from three allies. The leaders of the UK, France, and Canada are calling on Israel to end the war or face consequences. The death toll in Gaza is soaring. Hundreds have been killed in Israel's newest assault, according to health officials in Gaza. NPR's Daniel Estrin is gathering all the information he can in Tel Aviv. Hey there, Daniel. Hi, Steve. So what does Israel's offensive look like, as best you can determine?

6:41While Israeli strikes have expanded across Gaza, Israel has ordered a mass evacuation of civilians in southern Gaza in Khan Yunus. It's affecting around a quarter of Gaza's territory, according to the United Nations. A Palestinian journalist there has sent us footage of people fleeing by foot. One young man, Tahir Farah, was carrying a big yellow water can on his shoulders and a pile of mattresses.

7:07It's no longer livable in this land, he says. No food, no drinking water, no education, no health care, just displacement and humiliation and destruction. And every day we're dying, he says. And I want to just tell you a few details of some of those who were killed. A paracycling team in Gaza is reporting their teammate, 33-year-old Ahmed al-Dali, was killed. and a colleague of ours from Gaza says his longtime neighbor Hatem Abu Samra, an older gentleman, he survived more than 19 months of war. He was just killed in a strike in his home in central Gaza. I should add, there was a spontaneous march yesterday in Gaza where people were protesting the war and chanting anti-Hamas slogans.

7:46Okay, so this, interesting, that last detail. So this is the context in which three longtime allies of Israel, the UK, France, and Canada, are saying Israel should end all of this. How is Israel responding to that pressure? There is international pressure Israel is responding to. It allowed in a small number of trucks of baby food into Gaza so far. That's after nearly three months of a blockade. Gaza on the brink of famine. The UN says that's not enough. The leaders of the UK, France, and Canada put out that extraordinary statement you referred to. I want to read you a few lines. They say the level of human suffering in Gaza is intolerable.

8:21The denial of essential supplies to civilians risks breaching international law. They say if Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift restrictions on aid, they're threatening to take action. Steve, this is a big shift in rhetoric from these major allies, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has responded saying their statement rewards Hamas. Well, why are ceasefire talks at an impasse? Well, the Prime Minister of Qatar, who is hosting the talks, says the talks have gone nowhere because of fundamental differences between Israel and Hamas. We've spoken to three people briefed on the talks, including an Egyptian official and a Hamas official.

8:58They spoke on condition of anonymity to give details. They say we are looking at the same longstanding impasse. Israel wants a temporary ceasefire and the release of some hostages. And Hamas wants much more. They want international guarantees that a temporary ceasefire would lead to the permanent end of the war. And the people we spoke to said the U.S. refused to promise Hamas those guarantees. But we will have to see. Israeli and Hamas negotiators are still in Qatar. And NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Tel Aviv. Daniel, thanks so much. You're very welcome.

9:38Kentuckians are recovering from last weekend's tornadoes, and they might be in for more dangerous weather today, according to the National Weather Service. Much of southern Kentucky is at high risk of a significant tornado just days after a burst of storms killed more than two dozen people in that state, as well as in Missouri and Virginia. Earlier this spring, another cluster of deadly tornadoes tore across eight states in the Midwest. So is climate change making tornadoes more frequent? It's a question we pose from time to time, and NPR's Rebecca Hersher is here to talk through the evidence.

10:12Good morning. Good morning. First, has this been a particularly bad spring for tornadoes? Well, yes, it actually has. There have been more tornadoes than average, and that's according to data from the National Weather Service. So usually by this time in May, there have been a little over 600 tornadoes reported in the U.S. But this year, there have been more than 850 tornadoes, so significantly more. Okay, so is this just a bad year, or is there evidence that the frequency is increasing in a real way over time? It's just a bad year. You know, the annual number of storms varies a lot year to year, so it's not surprising to have a really active year or two like this year.

10:48I spoke to a tornado expert about this. Her name is Melissa Widhelm, and she helps lead the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at Purdue University. There's not really an increase or a decrease in the overall number of tornadoes that we see. That number's been pretty stable. You know, year after year. That's going back to the 1950s. But here's what is changing. She says big outbreaks of tornadoes, like the ones in Kentucky and Missouri over the weekend, those are getting more common, where lots of storms move over a really large area in a short period of time. Oh, this is interesting, and this is a thing that people have said about climate change, that you end up with more extreme weather events.

11:26So not more tornadoes total, but more of these clusters of tornadoes. Yeah, exactly. And Woodhelm says those clusters or outbreaks are a new phenomenon. In the past, we didn't see the kind of large outbreak days that we do now. It used to be kind of unusual to see dozens of them in a day, and now we get that year after year. Now, she points out that warning people about those big clusters is really labor-intensive. It requires a lot of weather forecasters and radar data to track the storms as they move across multiple states, which is notable at a time when the Trump administration is cutting weather forecasting budgets, and there are a lot of vacancies in the National Weather Service.

12:07You know, during the outbreak over the weekend, the local Weather Service office in Jackson, Kentucky, had to borrow forecasters from other offices in the region because they didn't have enough staff on their own. And that's according to a statement from the National Weather Service. I appreciate that last detail. It is the National Weather Service acknowledging this in a statement. So let's try to figure out what's going on. We understand that climate change can lead to more extreme weather events. We have these more extreme weather events, But can we be a little more precise about the mechanics?

12:35Do scientists understand why big outbreaks of tornadoes are getting more common? I wish I could say yes. But unfortunately, tornadoes are very complex. And this is just one of many unanswered questions about how they're changing, especially as the climate changes. You know, in general, climate change is causing more severe weather. As you said, one of the ingredients for a tornado is moist, warm air. So obviously, as the atmosphere heats up, it makes sense that tornado conditions could show up more. There have been some studies that suggest that there might be more tornadoes in the fall and winter as the Earth heats up, as opposed to now when most tornadoes happen in the spring and summer.

13:13But it's really an area of active research. Rebecca, thanks so much. Thanks. That's NPR's Rebecca Herscher.

13:23And that's up first for this Tuesday, May 20th. I'm Steve Inskeep. And I'm Leila Faldin. The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket. You'll find a mix of local, national, and international news, plus the best podcasts from the NPR network. Download the NPR app in your app store today. How do you hear it if it's in your pocket? Anyway, today's episode of Up First was... Headbones. Oh, thank you. Thanks for the reminder. Bluetooth. There we go. Today's Up First was edited by Neela Banerjee, Ryland Barton, Carrie Kahn, Ali Schweitzer, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Ziad Butch, Ben Abrams, and Christopher Thomas.

13:57We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow. I feel like there were a lot of nice extra flourishes on all the names today. Thank you. I try to give people credit where I can. Support for NPR and the following message come from Rosetta Stone, the perfect app to achieve your language learning goals no matter how busy your schedule gets. It's designed to maximize study time with immersive 10-minute lessons and audio practice for your commute. Plus, tailor your learning plan for specific objectives like travel. Get Rosetta Stone's lifetime membership for 50 % off and unlimited access to 25 language courses.

14:33Learn more at rosettastone.com slash NPR. This message comes from Michelin. More than a tire company, Michelin is an innovation company. From connected mobility to clean materials. And now, taking on one of the toughest mobility challenges, space. Developing an airless wheel for space exploration. Designed to withstand the extreme conditions at the moon's south pole, Michelin isn't just making exceptional tires, they're helping build a better future. Motion for life. More at michelinman.com slash y hyphen Michelin slash innovation. This message comes from Mint Mobile. From the gas pump to the grocery store, inflation is everywhere.

15:16So Mint Mobile is offering premium wireless starting at just$15 a month. To get your new phone plan for just$15, go to mintmobile.com slash switch.