Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Florida's Special Elections, Trump's Trade War

0:01A state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin is the most expensive judicial race in American history. They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we are doing. Why is this race in particular getting record spending? I'm Michelle Martin-Dense Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News. Democrats think they have a shot at flipping congressional seats in two Florida special elections. He will be there whenever I need him. He wants to be there whenever we need him. Will President Trump's support help or hurt the Republican candidate's chances? And a lesson about tariffs from one of the most protected industries in the U.S.

0:38If you go into the candy aisle and look at the hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States. Stay sweet and stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.

0:51That's so funny. That's what my grandmother used to say. Stay sweet. Stay sweet. And I'll be like, why? I want to be sour. Exactly. I want to be salty. This message comes from NPR sponsor FX, presenting The Lowdown, starring Ethan Hawke. Introducing you to Lee Raybon, a quirky journalist slash rare bookstore owner slash unofficial truth seeker who is always on the tail of his latest conspiracy. This time, his most recent expose puts him head to head with a powerful family that rules Tulsa, meaning only one thing. He must be on to something big. FX's The Lowdown. All new Tuesdays on FX. Stream on Hulu.

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2:14Rolling delicate roses of capicola alongside meandering ribbons of Amon Serrano. transforming a humble plank of weathered barnwood into a show-stopping charcuterie spread. Rinse. It's time to be great. Voters in Wisconsin have been casting ballots in the state's closely-watched Supreme Court election. It is the most expensive court race in American history, with billionaire Elon Musk and other out-of-state donors spending millions who decide the next justice of the court. Here's Musk over the weekend with a last-minute pitch for the conservative candidate and for what he says are the stakes for President Trump's agenda.

2:49They will try to stop all of the government reforms that we are doing. And we're getting done for you, the American people. Join us for more is Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtendonk. Anya, so this state Supreme Court race is getting lots of national attention. I mean, why is it getting that much attention? And who are the candidates? Yeah, so this is a contest between Susan Crawford and Brad Schimmel. It's technically a nonpartisan race, but Crawford is very clearly the liberal candidate. and Schimmel is very clearly the conservative candidate. So whoever wins will determine the ideological balance of the court, and that obviously really matters for state law here, of course.

3:26But this is also just a really significant election coming after President Donald Trump's win in November. So it's a bit of a test of how voters feel about his first few months in office, and that's a big reason for all of that interest and just tons of money being spent here. Yeah, that money, where is it coming from? I mean, the numbers are similar to what we see in U.S. Senate races. Yeah, it is just wild. Kyle, the latest estimates from Wispolitics, which is a news service here, show that this race has so far cost more than$100 million. That's almost twice what our last record-setting judge race here in Wisconsin cost two years ago.

3:58It's coming from both political parties and from all across the country. It includes Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and George Soros, who are backing Crawford. I've seen some celebrity names in the campaign finance reports also supporting her. And a few major conservative business people are backing Schimmel. but far and away the biggest and most significant spender has been Elon Musk supporting Schimmel. He says it's really about congressional redistricting. He says that if Schimmel loses, Democrats could gain more seats in the U.S. House. Crawford says it's about Musk's business interests. Here's Crawford at a debate with Schimmel.

4:29Elon Musk started spending that money within days of Tesla filing a lawsuit in Wisconsin. He was trying to buy access and influence. You know, both candidates are making those accusations about campaign influence. In Crawford's case, she's referring to a case where Tesla is challenging Wisconsin's car dealership laws. Right now, the company isn't allowed to sell cars in Wisconsin. And Musk isn't just making traditional campaign donations. He also gave out million-dollar checks to registered voters here. That's really skirting the line of, you know, not out-and-out paying them to vote, which is illegal.

5:02Now, what else is at stake in this race? Abortion law, I think, is the most significant issue. There's a case to determine whether abortion is legal. It's already being heard by this court. It's unclear whether that case will have been decided before the winner of this race takes the bench. There's also a major case involving labor law and collective bargaining rights. It's probably going before the state court. Again, exact timing of that is unclear. And then I'll just note that the Wisconsin Supreme Court has decided a number of voting and election-related cases in the past. It came incredibly close to overturning Joe Biden's victory in the state in 2020.

5:35So there's just such electoral interest tied up in having control of the highest court in what might be America's swingiest swing state. The swingiest swing state. That's right. I was trying to say that five times fast, but for example. Exactly. Wisconsin Public Radio's Anya Van Wagtendong. Thank you very much. Thank you.

5:59All right. Other important races today are in Florida, where Democrats think they have a chance to pick up one or two congressional seats that have been held by Republicans. In both contests, the Democratic candidates have raised far more money than the Republicans, and the central issue is, once again, President Trump and his agenda. NPR's Greg Allen has been following the races. He joins us now from Miami. So, Greg, I mean, Why are these two congressional seats open now? Well, you know, as you started to indicate, these two special elections in Florida are all about President Trump. He looked to the state when it came time to stock his cabinet.

6:32You know, remember his first pick for attorney general was Congressman Matt Gaetz, who represented the first district in the panhandle. Gaetz later withdrew his nomination and left Congress, leaving the seat open. The other seat is in Florida's 6th District on the East Coast. It was held by Trump's now national security advisor, Mike Waltz. Trump won both of those districts in November by more than 30 points. So Republicans are favored to hold on to the seats. But a lot of things have changed since Trump started carrying out his agenda. And Democrats have contributed millions of dollars to both races.

7:02They think they're competitive in both of them. All right. So tell us about the candidates. Well, in both districts, the Republican candidates have close ties to Trump. In the panhandle, Florida's chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronus, is running with Trump's endorsement. His opponent is Democrat Gaye Vallemont, who lost in November by more than 30 points to Matt Gaetz. This is the first congressional district up near Pensacola where there's a lot of military bases and a lot of veterans. Vallemont's been talking about the Trump administration cuts to the VA, so she's hoping that will resonate.

7:31She's raised more than$6 million, several times what her opponent has pulled in. In the other district on Florida's East Coast, Republican State Senator Randy Fine is running, also with Trump's endorsement. Back when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was challenging Trump for the GOP presidential nomination, Fine was one of just a handful of Republicans in the state legislature who snubbed DeSantis and backed Trump. And Trump referenced that in a campaign call for Fine last week. He was one of 14 Florida state legislatures who endorsed me very early in my campaign for president. That's why Randy will always have a very open door to the Oval Office.

8:08He will be there whenever I need him. Fine's opponent is Democrat Josh Weill. He's a schoolteacher who's raised some$10 million. Again, that's several times what his opponent has pulled in. All right, so campaign cash clearly flowing there. But how real are Democrats' chances of flipping seats that have been held by Republicans? Well, they think they have a shot at doing it, especially in the 6th District on the East Coast. Two recent polls there show Weill is just three or four points behind Fine, which is within the margin of error. Democrats see these special elections as a place to begin rallying a party that saw big losses in November.

8:41The National Democratic Party chair, Ken Martin, was here this weekend campaigning for both candidates. He pointed to special elections in Pennsylvania last week in which Democrats won two legislative seats that had been Republican. One of them helped us win back the state House majority and another seat that hasn't been represented by a Democrat since the 1880s. It's a plus 23 percent Republican district, and we won that in Pennsylvania. Martin says, you know, even if they come up short, though, the Democratic candidates in Florida will overperform expectations. It's clear also that Republicans, including President Trump, are worried about every congressional race and the possibility that they could lose their narrow majority in Congress.

9:20You know, that's why last week we saw Trump poll Congressman Elise Stefanik's nomination for U.N. ambassador. Instead of going to the U.N. now, she's going to be remaining in Congress. That's NPR's Greg Allen in Miami. Greg, thanks. You're welcome.

9:38All right, it's been a rough few months in the stock market. Both the S &P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite just closed out their worst quarter in three years. Investors are bracing for more turbulence as President Trump prepares to unveil the next phase in his trade war, what he's calling Liberation Day. Trump has said he will impose reciprocal tariffs to match the duties other countries place on American goods. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. So, Scott, why are investors so concerned about tariffs? Well, hey, tariffs are taxes. They generally push up prices. They're a potential drag on spending.

10:11And they invite retaliation against U.S. exports. On top of that, you've got the unpredictable way the Trump administration has rolled out his tariff agenda on one day, off the next, back on again. And all that just adds the uncertainty and makes it very hard for businesses to plan. All right. Then how does the U.S. stack up against other countries when it comes to trade barriers? Since the Second World War, the U.S. has generally pushed to lower trade barriers, not raise them. But there have always been a few domestic industries that have enjoyed special protection, and those offer some clues about how Trump's protectionist instincts might play out in other parts of the economy.

10:48One of the most protected industries in this country is sugar. The U.S. has high trade barriers against imported sugar. As a result, the price of sugar in this country is usually about twice what it is on the world market. Now, that might not be a big deal if you're just putting a spoonful of sugar in your coffee every morning, but it's a very big deal if you buy sugar by the truckload like Kirk Vashaw does. He's the CEO of Spangler Candy, which makes dum-dums, bit of honey, and candy canes in Bryan, Ohio. His is one of the last hard candy manufacturers that still operates in this country. Chicago used to be the candy capital of the United States, and it's not anymore.

11:25It's been hollowed out. If you go into the candy aisle and look at hard candy, you'll see most of it is made outside the United States. It's not the cost of the labor. It's the cost of the sugar. So lesson one, trade barriers drive up cost. And while that's meant higher profits for U.S. sugar producers, it's been very expensive for all the businesses and consumers who buy sweets. In some cases, it's driven them out of the country. Trade barriers not only affect the bottom line, but also how businesses operate too, right? Yeah, and a good example of that is the so-called chicken tax. Back in the 1960s, Germany slapped a tariff on imported chickens from the U.S., so the U.S.

12:05retaliated with the tax on imported pickup trucks. And that pickup truck tariff is still in place decades later. And the tariff is 25%, 10 times what the U.S. had been charging on imported cars. That's why you see a lot of imported cars in the U.S., but very few imported pickup trucks. There's a deep protectionist moat around the U.S. pickup market. And chief economist Eugenio Aleman of Raymond Jane says that's why domestic automakers have put so much their focus on building pickup trucks and SUVs. It is more profitable to produce light trucks than to be competitive in sedans. And basically, the U.S.

12:46auto manufacturers abandon any idea of competing in the global economy with small cars. And so that's a second lesson from these protected industries. Industries that are protected by high trade barriers typically have less incentive to invest and innovate and compete in worldwide markets. And, you know, this week, President Trump is widening that moat around pickup trucks to protect domestic autos with a 25 percent tariff as well. That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Scott, thanks. You're welcome.

13:22And that's Up First for Tuesday, April 1st. I'm E. Martinez. And I'm Michelle Martin. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR. We hear it up first, give you the three big stories of the day. are Consider This colleagues take a different approach. They dive into a single news story and what it means to you. Learn about a big story of the day in less than 15 minutes. Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Today's episode of Up First was edited by Acacia Squires, Russell Lewis, Raphael Nam, Lisa Thompson, and Alice Wolfley. It was produced by Zia Butch, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.

13:53We get engineering support from Nisha Hines, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow.

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