Made in Makerfield

22:55It's true that the news flow lately has been good. The current level of 2.8 % is not as bad as we had thought. Inflation at 2.8%, not as bad as we had feared only a short while ago. But nevertheless, that's closer to 3 than 2. The target is 2. And the number has been closer to 3 than 2 for well over a year now, dating back to the very early part of last year. and inflation has been at or below target in only three of the past 50 months. So this is not a disaster. There's no cause for panic when it comes to our inflation control performance, but it's not quite as good as it should be, and that's the bank's dilemma.

23:37Will Bain:Which stresses you out more then, that or the job numbers? Certainly on our team we talk about this quite a bit, that the jobs figures, I think because of what's gone on with the war in Iran and what it's done to the global economy, right, would you agree has been almost less of a national story although we've tried to talk about it a lot on the program that perhaps it would have been otherwise i mean they feel pretty stark yeah that's right the unemployment rate has been drifting up and if you look at the wage growth level that has been drifting down so we learned this week that it is only just above the rate of inflation.

24:15So the level of real wage growth is pretty low. And in the private sector, in fact, which is the sector in which the majority of the workforce are employed, the rate of wage growth is currently almost exactly the same as the inflation rate. So hardly any real wage growth at all there. So this is perhaps an underappreciated aspect of the economy. I think you're right, that has been a little bit crowded out by all the news coming out of the Gulf in recent months.

24:40Will Bain:Joe, you're really very much on the front line of both of those things, right? a place, obviously, where lots of people get their first rung on the kind of employment ladder, but also, I imagine, an extremely price sensitive sector. So what have you been seeing in terms of inflation and prices? I mean, prices have shot up for us. It's a really difficult balancing act because you need to make sure that you have people who are happy to come in and spend money. But yet, at the same time, we have to raise our prices. And if people don't have as much money in their pockets, you know, hospitality is the first swathe of aspects of their life they'll cut back on.

25:17So it is a really, really difficult balancing act. I mean, as far as the jobs go, we've seen obviously with the raise in the minimum wage for the younger sector, that has had a huge impact. You know, normally, I mean, I've spoken to so many people in different sectors up here, and so many people have said that it doesn't make economic sense for us to employ a youngster. You know, it's a great idea that there's this parity, but the problem you have is when you bring a youngster in, they don't hit the ground running by any stretch of their imagination. There's a huge amount of investment for any business for a youngster.

25:55Now, hospitality is so important. It gives people skills that they wouldn't normally have. And especially these days, because so many youngsters have come through that COVID area, they're now at that point, they're 17, 18, normally a first job in hospitality, get some front facing, especially in COVID when those youngsters did not have that same social interaction. And we see across my own son is 18. And, you know, he's been working in hospitality on the back of what we do. And the difference in him that we've seen has been incredible. You know, he doesn't think anything about talking to people, talking to adults, people who are older, different generations.

26:35And what we're losing is not just the employment for these youngsters, but we're also losing that social element and the social connections and their ability to interact with people, which is valuable for any job they go into. So, I mean, it is really concerning that the way this youth unemployment at the moment is not stable. It doesn't have a clear trajectory and it's simply down to the fact that we the whole landscape has changed for hospitality employers when they are employing younger people i know this might sound a slightly

27:09Will Bain:silly question but does it ever sort of settle so where if you have to build in a bit of higher price your obviously customers are shocked by it in the first instance but then presumably you know what have we had now a year and a bit of these changes to to employee costs if you like the cost of employing younger people. Does that ever get baked in, I suppose, is what I'm saying? And do people, does it sort of settle and can you see a recovery from it? Or does the pressure just sort of ramp up and ramp up and ramp up? Well, I mean, I think over the past few years, it has literally felt as a business that you're being bombarded from every angle with another tax or another increase.

27:47So the confidence within business just now is not great because this Labour government have just, I mean, we've had rates rises, We've had national insurance changes. We've had tax rises. We've had everything thrown at us. And it was already fragile after the COVID era. And I really do hope, I mean, that is pretty much all that most businesses are left with, is hope that things are going to improve. But the bottom line is that most businesses, they are struggling and just trying to keep their head above water. And that's what a lot of hospitality at the moment is they're treading water in the hope that things are going to get better.

28:25Will Bain:George, was there any of the sort of three sets of data, I guess, if you like, that drew your eye more than the others, the inflation, the rate decision or those wages numbers?

28:38So I think the picture for inflation is, you know, I was pleased that that could have been worse. and you know in recent weeks my conversations with some of the sort of major supermarkets they have you know a few weeks ago when you know oil was north of 110 and we saw agricultural commodities it was likely that we were going to be looking into food inflation of six seven even higher percent in the second half of this year which is really you know bad news for households So the fact that as it stands, fingers crossed, things look considerably better on that front means that the outlook for inflation does feel better.

29:22But then just following on for what you've just been discussing, I think the unemployment picture is worse. And I think it's particularly bad for the youngsters. And I feel really, you know, that's a real tragedy. And if we put the numbers on it, I mean, to employ a young person now in the last two years is now 33 % more expensive. And because of the Employment Rights Act is more risky. Now, all of that stuff was well-intentioned and that policy was well-meaning. But the net result is, sadly, as it's just flagged up, that businesses are saying, if something's going to cost me a lot more and it's riskier, I'm going to demand less of it.

30:00And so that's why it's getting so tough to get Saturday jobs or a few shifts to the pub, which is how many of us, that was our first experience in the working world.

30:09Will Bain:Absolutely. Well, we'll roll some of that into the challenges that perhaps are ahead through the summer in our chat in the second half of the programme. All the guys staying with us, George, Joe and Douglas McNeil as well. We're also going to be joined by Catherine McLeod in the second half of the programme. We will shift away from the politics and the economic backdrop, if you like, as well, too, because we'll be talking about Scotland's second game in the World Cup. can they clinch qualification for the knockout phase of the World Cup when they play Morocco at Gillette Stadium later on tonight?

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32:13Will Bain:Wake Up To Money with Will Bain. Morning, welcome back to Wake Up To Money on Friday the 19th of June where our panel this morning are Joe DeSilva, the company director of McGregor's Hospitality, George Godber, the fund manager at Perler Capital and Douglas McNeill, former Treasury Special Advisor to the likes of the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. We're also going to be joined by Catherine McLeod in just a moment as well. But if you are just getting up this morning, in the last couple of hours, Andy Burnham, as we were mentioning in the news, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, has won one of the most closely watched by-elections in years in the seat of Makerfield in the North West.

32:45This is a final chance to change. This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on. We must hear it. We must act upon it and we must get it right. There will be no second chance. But it is a chance now, from this result tonight, to build a new politics based on unity and hope.

33:13Will Bain:And it paves the way, of course, for him to challenge Sakhir Starmer for the job of Labour leader even and, in turn, of course, Prime Minister. While voters went to the polls in Makerfield, there were also by-elections in Scotland, The first in Aberdeen South called to replace Stephen Flynn, the SNP's former Westminster leader, who was elected to the Scottish Parliament last month. The other in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry called after the SNP Stephen Gethin stepped down from his Westminster seat. Our Scotland editor James Cook has this report from Aberdeen. It's been a long time since the Conservatives gained a Westminster seat in a Scottish by-election.

33:49The last time that happened was 1967, and that was the year the Beatles released the Sergeant Pepper album. album. Douglas Lumsden brought the unlucky streak to an end here in Aberdeen South, securing a majority of 6 ,050, a thumping majority over the SNP. In a boost for the Tory leader, Kemi Beidnuch, she repeatedly campaigned here on a promise to support the UK's flagging oil and gas industry. And the other issue which cast a cloud over the SNP's campaign was the admission in court by the party's former chief executive Peter Murrell that he had embezzled more than£400 ,000 from the party. Despite that though, down the east coast, the SNP's Lara Bird comfortably held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry ahead of the Conservatives and Reform UK with Labour just behind that.

34:36Will Bain:So that's the sweep of those three by-elections overnight. As I say, a Labour peer and former special advisor to the Chancellor. Alistair Darning, Catherine McLeod joins us this morning. Catherine, morning. Thanks for being back with us. Good morning. What's your takeaway then first of all on Makerfield? Well there is absolutely no doubt that Andy Barnum swung his swept to victory. I think the majority was bigger than anybody anticipated although I think there was quite optimism in the Labour camp. I think it's very important that his majority was bigger than reform and restore combined. So I think that he will be absolutely delighted his supporters will be delighted and I think that it will now be very interesting to see what's going to unfold over the weekend and the next days.

35:27Will Bain:Well what would you like to see happen then and I don't just mean from sort of the leadership standpoint but also in terms of what we've heard him in a few of the clips that we've played throughout the morning talking about change and this being the last chance to change Are there things that you think are essential to change straight away? Well, what Andy Barnum, I think, has demonstrated is that empathy and likability in politics are very important. I think what Andy Barnum is going to have to do now is to be absolutely clear about what his plan is for government. I think that's been one of the criticisms of the present government with, I think, that lots of people in the Labour Party who will actually be looking forward to Andy Barnum being Prime Minister also credit with Keir Starmer and Rachel Leaves doing good things, but they have really failed to communicate with the public.

36:26So I think that the pressure on Andrew Burnham now will be to convince the country, to convince first his own colleagues and the country that he's got a plan for government.

36:38Will Bain:I'll get both you and Douglas's view on this, if I can, as the sort of two political beasts on the panel this morning. Because Charlie in South London has sent in a text that I think kind of gets to a bit of that saying, Morning Will, doesn't the Burnham win now require a general election to release the new incumbent from the straitjacket of the last King's speech, making eight prime ministers in 10 years? Otherwise, it's a different presentation of more of the same. Is that a danger here, Catherine, that he's kind of locked in by decisions that have already been made? Well, he'll be locked in to some extent, but he's been pretty clear during this campaign that he's got an agenda for change.

37:16I think he's done a very wise thing. He seems to have, I don't know if employed or certainly, taken the advice from three very credible economists, Robert Hughes, Jim O 'Neill and Andy Haldane. So he's thinking about the fiscal rules that we've heard a lot about. But he wants to do things within. I think Andy Barnum wants to change how politics is done. He is a people person, really. He wants to reach out and take people with him to help them understand more what the government's agenda is.

37:51Will Bain:Douglas, that sort of difficulty of being bound by people in before you's decisions, if you're a prime minister that doesn't come in after a general election. Yeah, that can be awkward. And so there will be calls for a general election if Andy Burnham takes the crown. On the other hand, there is plenty of precedent in the past for changes of prime minister occurring intra-parliament and not leading directly to a general election. And I'm sure Andy Burnham will point to those precedents. But yeah, he will be bound in by pledges that the Labour Party has already made and indeed by just the basic economic realities which the current government is grappling with and which will not change just because the Prime Minister changes.

38:31So economic growth is quite low. Change of Prime Minister won't make any automatic difference to that. Your rate of inflation is quite high, so people don't have enough money in their pockets, as Joe was saying earlier on. And that's a pretty difficult circle to square. Some of the things that we heard Harry talking about Andy Burnham wishing to do earlier in the programme would not necessarily help that. So, for example, the idea of a social care levy, which Harry tells us is under consideration by Andy Burnham, you know that might be good for social care but that will that will not serve to put money in people's pockets quite the opposite that sounds pretty much like a tax to me so he will have to grapple with all of these basic realities just as much as he will the the pledges that Labour has previously made.

39:17Will Bain:Well George build on that from the markets perspective as our markets watcher but also a couple of interesting names that Catherine mentioned in there supposedly in this Burnham team and the FT put this up it flashed up pretty much straight after midnight that Richard Hughes, the former head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, so the sort of independent watchdog that looks at government spending, one of those that Burnham seems to have been brought in. That's quite an interesting move and seems to be signalling something to the markets and you guys in the city, right? Yes, I think the one thing he's going to fear above all else is the Liz Truss moment, because, you know, if you're a politician, you stand up and you give all your policies and you get stretched out by the bond market there's nothing you can do about it you know there's no way you can do and then you ultimately have to start fulfilling a group of policies that you you hadn't signed up with because whatever happens whoever is running the country with three trillion pounds in debt i mean you know you can only make comments about the bond market if you're willing to run a budget surplus and i haven't seen anything that suggests that that either andy burnham or the labour party willing to do that so they are boxed in by that so he's therefore I presume taken that on board and decided that I will surround myself with people who actually understand how to cope with these issues and these guardrails and prevent myself ending up in a trust type moment.

40:45Ultimately as I said right at the start bond markets are not political, they will not judge they do not have a sway one way on the other, they care about four things really what will be economic growth what will be the inflation in the economy what's the direction of gdp and how many gilts are going to be issued those are the things that affect the prices on the basis of what we've just know you know and as douglas has just alluded to a lot of the and the burnham and the and the burnham policies that we've seen so far and he hasn't actually committed to anything are negative for each of those things and and and may lead to more taxation and as joe said you know this is our message i get all the time for businesses they feel absolutely battered you know rachel reeve's first budget raised 40 billion in tax her second one was i think 26 billion that tax revenue has either got to come out of consumers pockets or business pockets because there's no other you know route for the government to find money in the economy uh as my children would say it doesn't money doesn't just spawn in it's coming out of someone's pockets so if he's going to pursue a gender and social change and couple that with big tax rises it's coming it's going to hurt someone i just don't know who

42:02Will Bain:charl bringing in on that in a minute but catherine that's the that's the real challenge here isn't it i mean we've seen in the last few weeks the the row that saw john healy leave the government about where you find money to to to meet some of the defense commitments that they've got they're just i mean that's the sort of inconvenient truth whoever wins andy burnham West Streeting, Angela Rayner, whoever fancies having a crack, the sort of physical hole that they're in. It is. It's difficult. I don't think anyone is trying to say anything else. But I don't think that, I mean, I think we should not, should just think, you know, step back and think a bit and not need be too alarmed yet.

42:40Andy Barnum has been around a long time. He's surrounding himself by very credible people. I think he will have spoken to a lot of people, small business people, consumers who are feeling the cost of living. He knows what people think about raising more tax and who it's going to hurt. And Andy Burnham is nothing if not empathetic. He will understand that people are struggling and he will not be wanting to come in and sort of recklessly put up tax or increase borrowing. He's going to inherit a very tough hand. Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves inherited a very tough hand and they will all be trying to do their best to reduce the cost of living and to help business because they know that's where there's economic growth.

43:32So I think he will be keen on concentrating on economic growth because that ultimately is what we need if we're going to have better social care or better education or better anything else.

43:43Will Bain:Yeah. Jo, that balance then from... You were chatting in the first half of the programme about obviously VAT in particular for hospitality having been a challenge. But is there something also in what Catherine's saying that actually the other thing that's been hitting hospitality hard is a lack of confidence from people about how their own finances are. And actually, if Andy Burnham or whoever it is, as we say, props up, you know, public services that haven't been doing very well, that you're not as delayed on your train, that you're not waiting months and months for your NHS appointment. Perhaps you're a bit more productive.

44:16Will Bain:Perhaps you're a bit more confident in your finances or in the sort of financial safety nets around you. Is there anything in that? Well, I mean, it does feel like it's a bit of a two-tier system, you know, that businesses are really struggling and are being hammered at every corner. and I'm not sure, I really don't know how that is going to play out if I'm perfectly honest because I mean as a business, talking from a purely personal perspective, the confidence that I have in the UK at the moment in terms of supporting business is incredibly low and our goal, our aim has always been to expand what we do.

44:57We promote the best that Scotland has to offer, that is what we are all about and our core message is And our plan has always been to expand across the UK and then further afield. But at the moment, the way things stand, the UK is not the first place that we would be looking to expand. And that is a real, I'd like to think if any politician is sitting listening and actually listens to what businesses have to say, they're going to find that that message is across the board. Businesses are so fearful at the moment of expanding at all because we just don't know what is happening. There has to be more continuity.

45:37You know, it has to, things, wage pressures have been so significant. Every bill we get when we open it is bigger and bigger and bigger. Until these things change, you're going to find that most businesses are going to be very reticent about investing more money.

45:55Will Bain:Well, let's get round everybody for a quick final thought then. Catherine, lead us off. Does this need to be, for the good of kind of the country, does this need to be quick now, whatever happens next? Well, I think it has to be smooth and dignified. We can have no chaos. And I think there'll be a lot of thought going in to how the next few weeks should play out. And I think that's the most important thing, to reassure people, whether they're in the markets or business or just going to work, that we're living in a country where things can happen smoothly. Jo? Well, I'd love to see that. I'd love to see that.

46:31And I mean, I would be delighted to have some stability to know that things are going to be on more of an even keel, that there are recognition that businesses contribute so much, more than just the economy, but they contribute so much to the UK as a whole. So I think that at the point when it's business first rather than the way we've seen across the whole sectors of a two-tier system where you've got wage rises for the public sector and the people who are financing those wage rises are the businesses who are really bleeding. George? i'm going to go back to actually something that i know all the focus will be on andy burnham uh today but douglas said right at the stop that there was a mini referendum today also happened on the north sea policy and again you'd say well of course these people are going to vote for it's their direct jobs but the uk energy policy is at the heart of a lot of what we talked about today 20 years ago we had the same average electricity price as everyone else in the g7 now we are three times higher than the rest of the G7 and it's hurting households and it's hurting consumers and we need to have a much more grown-up approach to the security of supply that the North Sea offers us because it is a route to one being able to guarantee that we've got the gas that 87 % of households heat themselves on but also that we can actually you know look at a lower electricity price for everybody going forward.

48:02So I think that's one thing I hope will come out of this, but who knows. Yeah, that was interesting from that result, wasn't it?

48:09Will Bain:Douglas? Well, a speedy resolution to the Labour leadership is definitely preferable, but it mustn't be too speedy. I think there needs to be enough time for Andy Burnham to be compelled to set out his stall and to gain some backing for his programme, if only from within the Labour Party. If he gets a mandate of that kind, then that will make him a much more effective Prime Minister, and that's in everybody's interest. Yeah, and Johnny in North Yorkshire absolutely agreeing with you on that. Douglas texting in on 85058 saying Andy Burnham needs scrutinising now on his decisions in the run-up to any Labour leadership election.

48:45Will Bain:85058, if you want to squeeze in your text in the last six or seven minutes or so here on the programme, got three Scots on the programme. Catherine, before you let you go, have you been swept up in any tartan army fever yet well of course it's in your dna to be swept up so they're going to get through tonight then in this morocco game well just let's hope so you're always an optimist brilliant well thanks so much for being on the program always appreciate your time okay katherine mcleod there labour peer former special advisor to the chancellor alistair darling how's it been joe in terms of um the world cup has it been you know we've talked about a lot of the challenges this morning has it been a kind of welcome boost for hospitality or have the games just been at the wrong time for that oh the games have definitely been at the wrong time it would have been wonderful had they been on more sociable hours but you know the one on we we've we've got uh against morocco that's a decent time so it's really exciting have you got people in tonight then for it we have we've actually got a great folk singer called davy who's coming in to sing all those traditional scottish favorites so our pub will be absolutely jumping with people singing along and then fingers crossed we'll be jumping at the result at the end but we'll see.

49:57Will Bain:Well Brad Livingston is going to be leading a few of those songs as well I think later on this afternoon his time because Brad has stayed up way into the night for us he's the drum sergeant and the Rhode Island Highlanders Pipe Band has been part of the celebrations this week as thousands of Scots as we were hearing earlier in the week have taken over Providence in Rhode Island because it's only a short trip up to Foxborough and Gillette stadium from there. Brad, morning from us, evening to you. Good morning. Well, it depends on how you want to look at it. I suppose you're in the morning there as well.

50:30How's it been this week? It's been absolutely fantastic. I could not have nicer things to say about the Tartan Army here in Providence. It's been absolutely magical for us. Just getting to new friends and meeting everybody here. Everybody's been so kind. The city of Providence has welcomed the Tartan Army with open arms, and I hope that all of the folks from the Tartan Army are having as much fun as we are. Everything has been so wonderful. So tell us about this parade last night. so uh today we we've uh the band here the Rhode Island Highlanders we've done a couple events now with the Tartan Army um our first event was uh prior to the match um earlier this week or at the end of last week uh and we kind of met up at a pub down here where there was a street party that happened with all the supporters.

51:46And then we marched them from the pub there to the iconic yellow school buses that we have here in the States so that everybody could climb on board and drive up to the stadium in Foxborough there. And then we all went back afterwards and the supporters that weren't able to get tickets to the match, we stayed in the pub with them and we were cheering just as loud as everybody else when Scotland won their game. And then earlier today, we marched the Tartan Army down to the Hasbro Children's Hospital where they made a very sizable donation to the Children's Cancer and just the Children's Hospital there, I guess.

52:38And that was really special. There were members of the band who have had their own children or families go to that hospital for treatment. And so it was very emotional on our end and for the Tartan Army supporters as well. So it was just a magical thing. And then after we finished with that, we marched the supporters of the Tartan Army down to a park here. And there were thousands of people there in the park. and we just had a blast playing music, singing songs, and just really enjoying the camaraderie of it all.

53:14Will Bain:Well, a couple of Scots on the programme with us here, Brad, this morning as well. Douglas, I don't want to sound too overly sentimental about it, but has it sort of made you proud of the sort of diplomatic effort that the Tartan Army seem to be making on behalf of Scotland in the US? It certainly has. They seem to be doing a great job. I just hope that they all have enough energy left to cheer the team on tonight because after this week-long series of festivities, they must all be feeling like a bit of a nightclub. I was going to say, it looks exhausting, Brad. I think I'm too old for the level of party England's going on.

53:48It's been an interesting experience. We'll put it that way. But, you know, like I said, everybody feeds off each other's energy. So that's not been in short supply. I'm sure once I finally get home this morning, I will just absolutely crash into my bed. But it's been, yeah, everything's been so fabulous and we could not be happier and more proud of the folks that have come over from Scotland because it's just been fantastic.

54:21Will Bain:What will you guys be playing today then as they set off? So we, of course, play a couple of traditional tunes, Scotland the Brave, Rowan Tree, Wings. All of those kinds of things. But then we try to jump in on on some of kind of the fan tunes, you know, John McGinn and, you know, as an Aston Villa fan, you can come and play that one over for us in Birmingham next year as well. Brad, thanks so much. We've already been talking about how we would love to come over and return the favour and come and visit you all over there. Well, if you do, come in and see us. Thanks a million for your time this morning.

55:01Will Bain:Brad Livingston there from the Rhode Island Highlanders Pipe Band. Big thanks, too, to Joe, Douglas and George. And for all of you for listening to Wake Up To Money this morning. Wake Up To Money with Will Bain. The 2023 Ballon d 'Or France footballer is Lionel Messi. The winner is Cristiano Ronaldo. This is the story of the greatest rivalry in the history of sport. A rivalry that split football into two fates for a generation. There could be no, oh, Messi and Ronaldo are both great players. There had to be one that was better. They 100 million percent pushed each other to the next level. You know, we were the lucky ones who got to see it.

55:43I'm Steve Crossman. This is Sporting Giants Messi v. Ronaldo. Listen first on BBC Sounds. Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first, but didn't live up to the hype? Like those$5 roses at a gas station? Or a second-hand piece of technology that breaks in the first 10 minutes? Marketers know that feeling. We optimise for the numbers that look great, impressions, reach and reacts. But when they don't show revenue, well, that's a not-so-great conversation with the CFO. LinkedIn has a word for that. Bull spend. Now you can invest in what looks good to your CFO. LinkedIn ads generates the highest ROAS of all major ad networks.

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